With all the hope and speculation about next year's roster and speculation about how good we could be, I hope the Ohio State experience will jumpstart the interest in Uconn being the team pressing all over the court. I believe the absolute minimum size of the rotation next year if everyone is healthy is 7. It would be exceptionally disappointing if that is what happened, and if it did, pressing is probably off the table.
I fully expect the opposite, namely that Geno could put a very high quality backup in for any starter and still have one or two that meet those standards in reserve, meaning he could still have a rotation around 10 even with an injury or two. If that turns out to be true, and we don't at least press frequently and try to fast break all the time I will be upset at the coaching staff.
But that depends on several players, all with plenty of potential earning Geno's trust. Geno doesn't play potential, prospects, or players to develop, unless they are ready and capable of being an above average contributor the moment they enter the game. It is a very high standard, sometimes too high in my opinion, to the point of playing his core well past fatigue, rather than taking a chance on someone he is not sure of.
Because of Geno's tendencies for short rotations, I hope many players force him to include them in the rotation, and if several do that, I think he will be open to more pressing and resting the core more for greater productivity from them. I know plenty will disagree with this but this is how I assess the candidates.
I don't see much chance of Ines, Amari, or Q being part of that rotation mix, even if it is a big one. Ines could improve substantially and get less time than this year. We lose Lou, but gain Paige, probably Azzi and Caroline for more of next season than they played this year, plus KK and Ashlynn. It's a numbers game, I don't see her playing ahead of any of those players thru no fault of her own.
Amari has had two years to make an impact and thus far has not. You can see the potential that made her #15 according to ESPN, but if they went back and did those rankings now she might not be in the top 100. In her case in competition with Ice and Jana I see her as a very distant third. Those two are also highly rated and would have to similarly underachieve their rating by a similar substantial amount for Amari to be significant competition.
As for Q she is a fine prospect, but has lots of proven high level players ahead of her, most of which were higher ranked prospects that have already proven themselves. probably a learning and gaining experience year for her.
Then there are the X factors. Very talented players that would be starters on most teams, that could easily be part of an expanded rotation, but who have to show that they are worthy of adding to a limited rotation that has no weak links. In that category I have KK, Ashlynn, Ayanna, Ice and Jana.
Ayanna I fully expected to be a reliable regular part of the rotation this year, and she was close to that, but clearly there were times when Geno did not want to use her. I expect her to be much better, but like Ines, she may have far more competition for her minutes than this year. This year when Dorka or Aaliyah was out, Ayanna was struggling somewhat and Amari didn't make a major sophomore leap.
Next year there are other options. The principle one is Aubrey. She is probably more 4/3 than 3/4 but this year because of injuries was needed more on the perimeter. She is a proven star 4 backup, Ayanna hopes to be that. When we got Azzi and Caroline back and then Aaliyah got in foul trouble against Baylor, Geno called on Aubrey not Aaliyah. Unless something changes, that is probably the way next year starts, when Aubrey can get minutes up front, and on the wing, but could handle all of Aaliyah's backup minutes. It is also possible Ayanna could face competition from Ice and Jana. Now while they will be needed mostly at the 5, they both can play the 4, and could potentially be ahead of Ayanna as well.
KK and Ashlynn certainly have the ability to step in and produce right away, but they don't have to. If Geno wanted to, he could manage the small minutes with Nika, Azzi, Paige, Caroline and Aubrey, and not have to use KK or Ashlynn at all. Since Aubrey can be used upfront as well she may only be available part time for the backcourt. Regardless there is no burning need to throw them into the fire right away. On the other hand, if they are ready to produce at a high level, the argument for including one or both in the rotation and pressing is much greater.
Unlike the new guards we really need Ice and Jana to produce at the 5 right away. If they don't, the expanded rotation might not happen. In that case Aaliyah might be the starting 5, Aubrey the starter at the 4, and Ayanna needs to get major minutes.
If the new bigs come thru which I expect, and one of the new guards plays their way into an expanded rotation all the options for pressing, strategic substitutions, and resting the core will be available.
, after a few games to sort things out, here is the starting 5 that will carry UConn to the championship in 2023-24:
