OT: 2018 NBA Draft

[Rocktheworld]

I don't think it's been mentioned, man that Foot Locker commercial with Gelo and Lavar was some epic cringe

 

[Stainmaster]

I don't think it's been mentioned, man that Foot Locker commercial with Gelo and Lavar was some epic cringe

Why the hell would Trae Young have agreed to that?

 

[the Q]

You asked who got value from it, not what value Woj got from it.

Apparently the Atlanta gm did

Hawks GM nixed trade after media reports

 

[gtcam]

I would trade the pick if I was picking Top 5. I don't think anyone stands out.

I am not a fan of Bagley. I think his effort is inconsistent, and that does not typically improve in the NBA. His upside is Jabari Parker, a no-D big that stands outside and jacks 3's but puts up decent offensive numbers to almost compensate for all the points he is giving up on the other end.

Ayton and Porter have bust written all over them. I know it is one game, but Arizona getting humiliated by Buffalo in the NCAA tournament bugs me. If Ayton is really the best player in the draft, he should not have been blown out in that game.

I hate to see injury issues with a college kid. Not everyone has the body to take the wear and tear of an NBA season, and Porter may be one of those guys that just doesn't have the durability to be a top level professional athlete.

No idea on Doncic. He could be anything from the next Darko Milicic to a taller version of Ricky Rubio, which would be pretty awesome.

Bamba - I would hate to burn a Top 10 pick on a one dimensional defender.

Trae Young - I like him better than a lot of other people like him. He is short and poor defensively, but he can put the ball in the hole and I think he can be an 18 and 8 guy at the NBA level, which warrants a late lottery pick.

Sexton is a 2 in a 1's body.

Mikhael Bridges - game is perfect for the modern NBA. Low risk pick that may not have the upside of some of the other options.

Lonnie Walker - did I miss something on this guy? Why is he even a candidate for the lottery?

I would not be surprised to see someone from the second half of the first round win ROY. I don't see the big gap between the Top 8 and the rest of the first round that everyone else sees. I think there are 5-6 guys out there that could be the next Donovan Mitchell. Kevin Knox, Zhaire Smith, Melvin Frazier all stick out, but it could be anyone. I certainly didn't see Donovan Mitchell coming.

Dark horse that deserves to be in the First round: Moritz Wagner - I love his game at the next level. I think he will be playing close to 20 mpg next season for someone.

We all have opinions but Wow - IMHO this is so far off in so many ways
Ayton a bust? I don't give a crap what he did in one tournament game - rarely do you see a kid with so much overall ability in a 7'1" body
This draft was considered by those who spend a hell of a lot more time around the game than you, I or anyone else on this site as one of the deepest in years. There were kids you decided to return to school and some who didn't get the call who would have been chosen most other years.
If you didn't see the potential of Donovan Mitchell at L'ville you simply weren't watching very closely
The only thing that will bust Porter is his physical conditions and problems - if he is 100% he would have been #1. The kid is perhaps the best 6'8" outside threat who can drive the ball like a guard that has come along in years.
Guys like Diop, Carter, Edwards, Brunson, Hervey and Welsh going as low as they did is amazing. Meanwhile Greyson Allen going as high as he did id mind boggling
Mo Wagner did go in 1st round to the Lakers and that is a good fit for him - weird that the Lakers used both choices on German players
Celts got a real steal with RW III at 27 - that's crazy!

 

[champs99and04]

Yeah my post was just a joke. I understand the reality that the early picks are about upside. 3 and D guys are incredibly valuable role players... for teams that are winning. Worse teams need to get those foundational playmakers and high ceiling guys. That's part of the conundrum of Jaren Jackson... he's comparably lower ceiling than the guys around him due to his lack of playmaking, but he's an unbelievable fit in the modern game. So much more valuable to a winning team than to a lottery team.

As for post-ups... it's not really about time. Not sure where you got that from. Shots just go in less often from those play types for less points, even from stars. It's just much more effective to have your big roll to the rim for a 75% accurate lob dunk or pop for a 35% 3 point attempt than a 45% hook shot. And dunking lobs takes very little skill, so the market is saturated with guys that are big and long and aren't required to have a high skill level. It's a lot easier to find a guy with a 7'5" wingspan than a guy with McHale's moves. Ayton is a bit of both, but we've established the post-ups aren't that valuable, so why are you investing the #1 pick in a guy with replaceable talent at #27 (Robert Williams or for example Clint Capela).

You don't think the timing impacts the percentage? It's a 24 second shot clock as it is, generally you need to run at least a little cross action to get the ball in the post (officials let guys get away with a lot fronting), and then when you start your move help is usually coming from the weak side, which means at least another couple passes after the ball leaves your hands. So what comes first? Does the ball go to the post to die or is it already dead when it gets there? I honestly don't know. The lowest percentage shot tends to be the one leaving the hands of a desperate player, and that desperation is often induced by the shot clock.

It's more effective to have your big roll to the rim if you already have skilled players around him. Ditto on spot up shooting. The evolution of LeBron's post game is sometimes overstated, but it has exposed rifts in opposing defenses that allow them to sustain a potent attack despite mostly one-dimensional players around him. Game one of the finals sticks out to me as an especially relevant case study. Even though all the analytics invite small ball, the influence of dominant players tends to be exacerbated in those alignments. Suddenly guys you can't keep from the rim under the best of circumstances, you really, really can't keep from the rim when they're now not just the most skilled player on the court, but the most physically imposing as well.

Long point short, there are going to be guys who defy the metrics. I agree with you that it's very difficult for a guy like Ayton to do that in today's game. But it's close enough that I think you have to take him #1 and bank on either pairing him with a dominant perimeter player or hoping he can grow into a dominant defensive piece.

 

[the Q]

I’d like to see the refs severely tighten up post contact. That would let post players thrive again.