OT: 2018 NBA Draft

[the Q]

Draft is here and should be a fun night. It's always one of my favorites, getting to see the NCAA guys move on and how others view their games.

Some fun rumors flying around now:

- Both Sacto and Memphis having issues getting players to play ball and do things like workout or share medicals. Could make their picks interesting. Remember in 2016 Sacto had a huge issue with this and ended up trading out of the pick and that didn't go well for them.

- Bamba told memphis he has no interest in playing there.

- Bagley worked out for the Kings, he just wants to get paid as much as possible. I'd be surprised if it's not him at 2.

- Despite barely playing, Porter seems like a lock for the top 8.

- Orlando is the biggest turn spot in the draft early on IMO. If they go PG there is a fun domino effect. If they do go PG, looking at his history with the Bucks, you'd think he'd go with SAG out of Kentucky, but that's just my own inference based on how Milwaukee drafted in the past.

I'm gonna post something I shared on another board about my 2nd round steals shortly.

 

[the Q]

Last year I post my 2nd round steals and had some nice hits like Thornwell, Bell and Josh Hart (who ended up moving up in the 2 weeks between when I created the list and when the draft actually occurred). Obviously it's not a perfect science as I had guys like Devin Robinson and Cam Oliver on there as well.

These are the guys I'm seeing now. I left out a few guys who I think are basically fairly ranked where they are listed, like a Melvin Frazier.

The Condors

Justin Jackson, F, Maryland: This dude is 6-7 and has a 7-3 wingspan. And while his shooting is down this year, he was playing injured (labrum). His FT shooting improved dramatically to over 80% His career 73% FT and 38.5% 3pt rate show there is some serious talent there. Combine those with Turgeon's abysmal track record of getting the most out of pro talent (starting with Gal Mekel, DeAndre Jordan, Middleton, and Donald Sloan). This is a guy I think will outplay quite a few of his first round counterparts.

NOTE: Yes, that last part about how brutal of a coach Turgeon is was based on the ESPN article, but it's a trend I noticed after everyone ignored Middleton and Sloan, two guys I liked coming out...and I was furious when Ainge didn't draft Jordan and instead took JR Giddens).

Shake Milton, G/F SMU: Despite playing out of position at PG, Milton ended with an almost 2:1 asst to turnover ratio. He's not the best athlete for a wing, but at 6-6 with a 7-1 wingspan he's got some room to give and still get away with it. Milton is a spot up shooter, but he's pretty good at it, and his FT% backs it up. He's got just enough length and playmaking paired with his shooting to be a useful piece.

The Grizzled Vet(s)
Jevon Carter, PG, West Virginia: If Carter had a few more inches of wingspan he'd be an easy first round pick. While not a freak athlete he's good enough. He's one of the best defenders in the entire draft, and has plus shooting both form 3 and at the line. I think some of his inefficiencies will be negated by not being the only guy on his team who can consistently create.

Devon Hall, SG, Virginia: He's been a plus defender since he stepped on campus and has added shooting. He's a guy who isn't' going to be a star but I think he'll have an actual nba career as a guy off the bench.

NOTE: Not a surprise that both of these guys have some kind of tie or similarity to Malcom Brogdan. Plus both of these guys have been able to play defense since they got dropped off on campus. They're both probably bench players, but they're guys who can play for any team in that role.

The Sharpshooter
Gary Trent Jr., SG, Duke: Trent is simple. He's got a reasonable 6-9 wingspan and is one of the best shooters in the draft. I expect him to be able to blossom away from the other all americans hogging the ball. I think he can do a little bit more passing and defensively than he's shown (where he was still a plus at Duke). His rebounding for a guard is promising as well. But his lack of elite athleticism is why he's on this list and not a lottery mock draft.

 

[Lefty2one]

Really looking forward to tomorrow night; it should be the most unpredictable draft in a while and there's a lot of talent out there. Nice to see a ton of big men in the lottery too.

I'm still surprised Doncic isn't the consensus top pick, especially at the expense of two big men who are dreadful defensively. You'd think these teams would notice the current landscape of the NBA and not spend a Top 2 pick on a guy who you may not be able to play in crunch time due to defensive liabilities. PHX and SAC (and potentially ATL) must be extremely concerned with Doncic's athleticism. 6'8 playmakers with a well-rounded game don't come around too often, if you're passing on that you better know what you're doing.

Curious to see where Porter Jr goes. I don't see the hype around the kid. I think he's more Danillo Gallinari or a less-athletic Harrison Barnes than KD or Giannis (as Porter Jr himself claims). I think Bamba is the sleeper of this draft, I like him much more than Jaren Jackson Jr. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the best big in the draft but he also has a scary bust potential. Miles Bridges is another guy who's tough to peg. No one really loved him last year and the same can be said for this year. Still, a strong, athletic, versatile guy with an improving jumper will have a nice, long career in the NBA. He might surprise folks and be pretty good.

I like the Knicks's situation. I think it'll be Kevin Knox or either of the Bridges and I'd be fine with any of those three guys. I don't want Trae Young (I think he goes #6 to Orlando) or Wendell Carter (no thanks to a 5) but thankfully I don't think either will be around when the Knicks pick.

 

[the Q]

Really looking forward to tomorrow night; it should be the most unpredictable draft in a while and there's a lot of talent out there. Nice to see a ton of big men in the lottery too.

I'm still surprised Doncic isn't the consensus top pick, especially at the expense of two big men who are dreadful defensively. You'd think these teams would notice the current landscape of the NBA and not spend a Top 2 pick on a guy who you may not be able to play in crunch time due to defensive liabilities. PHX and SAC (and potentially ATL) must be extremely concerned with Doncic's athleticism. 6'8 playmakers with a well-rounded game don't come around too often, if you're passing on that you better know what you're doing.

Curious to see where Porter Jr goes. I don't see the hype around the kid. I think he's more Danillo Gallinari or a less-athletic Harrison Barnes than KD or Giannis (as Porter Jr himself claims). I think Bamba is the sleeper of this draft, I like him much more than Jaren Jackson Jr. I wouldn't be surprised if he's the best big in the draft but he also has a scary bust potential. Miles Bridges is another guy who's tough to peg. No one really loved him last year and the same can be said for this year. Still, a strong, athletic, versatile guy with an improving jumper will have a nice, long career in the NBA. He might surprise folks and be pretty good.

I like the Knicks's situation. I think it'll be Kevin Knox or either of the Bridges and I'd be fine with any of those three guys. I don't want Trae Young (I think he goes #6 to Orlando) or Wendell Carter (no thanks to a 5) but thankfully I don't think either will be around when the Knicks pick.

The metrics think Ayton was better than most think defensively. But it seems like when he was bad, he got really bad. Bagley isn't all that defensively either.

I love me some Bamba. There's so much there to work with.

Carter is getting underrated because he played with Bagley. But taking a close look at him, there's a lot there to work with. He's the better shooter and defender right now.

Porter is just impossible to evaluate based on like 1.5 games. But he was the top player in the class before his injury.

Knicks pick will be interesting. I read it's down to Knox or Walker IV. Which is weird. Not a fan of walker at all. If they don't think Frenchy is a PG they could get a pretty good one here.

Bridges was a projected top 10 pick last year and struggled to find his game with Mich St as a pure 3 this year. He seemed really passive and unsure about taking it to the rim and creating. Sat back and shot a lot of jumpers. He's kind of a 3/4. Would be fun as a stretch 4, but his ball handling needs to improve if he's gonna live up to the hype.

 

[gtcam]

- Bamba told memphis he has no interest in playing there.

I've heard like rumors to this effect also
If kids make ridiculous statements like this my desire is with that given attitude I hope the Grizz abide, draft a similar position player, pay him ridiculous money and Bamba drops like a lead weight and loses millions - I know that won't happen
It goes back to Peyton Manning and Kobe - they know the drill and the fact that because they will be paid exorbitant cash they are at the mercy of the selection process. If they want the freedom to choose where they want to work, look for a job in the regular labor pool.

BTW - wouldn't be upset if Bamba dropped to the Celtics but looks like maybe Charlotte might be making a move to replace Dwight Howard

 

[Lefty2one]

The metrics think Ayton was better than most think defensively. But it seems like when he was bad, he got really bad. Bagley isn't all that defensively either.

The article I read a few weeks ago said he was one of the worst defensive lottery bigs in the last 15 years. Poor rim protection and gets lost on switches and rotations. The latter may not be a huge deal; some players can learn and improve while others are Amare Stoudemire and there's no hope. I can see teams attacking him non-stop in PnR, especially down the stretch of games. I'm not sold on his lateral quickness, he seems a bit too mechanical for my taste.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I would trade the pick if I was picking Top 5. I don't think anyone stands out.

I am not a fan of Bagley. I think his effort is inconsistent, and that does not typically improve in the NBA. His upside is Jabari Parker, a no-D big that stands outside and jacks 3's but puts up decent offensive numbers to almost compensate for all the points he is giving up on the other end.

Ayton and Porter have bust written all over them. I know it is one game, but Arizona getting humiliated by Buffalo in the NCAA tournament bugs me. If Ayton is really the best player in the draft, he should not have been blown out in that game.

I hate to see injury issues with a college kid. Not everyone has the body to take the wear and tear of an NBA season, and Porter may be one of those guys that just doesn't have the durability to be a top level professional athlete.

No idea on Doncic. He could be anything from the next Darko Milicic to a taller version of Ricky Rubio, which would be pretty awesome.

Bamba - I would hate to burn a Top 10 pick on a one dimensional defender.

Trae Young - I like him better than a lot of other people like him. He is short and poor defensively, but he can put the ball in the hole and I think he can be an 18 and 8 guy at the NBA level, which warrants a late lottery pick.

Sexton is a 2 in a 1's body.

Mikhael Bridges - game is perfect for the modern NBA. Low risk pick that may not have the upside of some of the other options.

Lonnie Walker - did I miss something on this guy? Why is he even a candidate for the lottery?

I would not be surprised to see someone from the second half of the first round win ROY. I don't see the big gap between the Top 8 and the rest of the first round that everyone else sees. I think there are 5-6 guys out there that could be the next Donovan Mitchell. Kevin Knox, Zhaire Smith, Melvin Frazier all stick out, but it could be anyone. I certainly didn't see Donovan Mitchell coming.

Dark horse that deserves to be in the First round: Moritz Wagner - I love his game at the next level. I think he will be playing close to 20 mpg next season for someone.

 

[the Q]

I would trade the pick if I was picking Top 5. I don't think anyone stands out.

I am not a fan of Bagley. I think his effort is inconsistent, and that does not typically improve in the NBA. His upside is Jabari Parker, a no-D big that stands outside and jacks 3's but puts up decent offensive numbers to almost compensate for all the points he is giving up on the other end.

Ayton and Porter have bust written all over them. I know it is one game, but Arizona getting humiliated by Buffalo in the NCAA tournament bugs me. If Ayton is really the best player in the draft, he should not have been blown out in that game.

I hate to see injury issues with a college kid. Not everyone has the body to take the wear and tear of an NBA season, and Porter may be one of those guys that just doesn't have the durability to be a top level professional athlete.

No idea on Doncic. He could be anything from the next Darko Milicic to a taller version of Ricky Rubio, which would be pretty awesome.

Bamba - I would hate to burn a Top 10 pick on a one dimensional defender.

Trae Young - I like him better than a lot of other people like him. He is short and poor defensively, but he can put the ball in the hole and I think he can be an 18 and 8 guy at the NBA level, which warrants a late lottery pick.

Sexton is a 2 in a 1's body.

Mikhael Bridges - game is perfect for the modern NBA. Low risk pick that may not have the upside of some of the other options.

Lonnie Walker - did I miss something on this guy? Why is he even a candidate for the lottery?

I would not be surprised to see someone from the second half of the first round win ROY. I don't see the big gap between the Top 8 and the rest of the first round that everyone else sees. I think there are 5-6 guys out there that could be the next Donovan Mitchell. Kevin Knox, Zhaire Smith, Melvin Frazier all stick out, but it could be anyone. I certainly didn't see Donovan Mitchell coming.

Dark horse that deserves to be in the First round: Moritz Wagner - I love his game at the next level. I think he will be playing close to 20 mpg next season for someone.

I'm a big Zhaire Smith fan. He would be my mitchell.

Frazier's 3pt shooting seems a little fluky based on his poor FT%. I'd rather have Jackson.

 

[Stainmaster]

Sacramento and Atlanta are apparently closing in on Bagley and Doncic, respectively. That would leave Memphis choosing between Jackson and Porter, no?

 

[UConnStats]

I'm a big Zhaire Smith fan. He would be my mitchell.

Frazier's 3pt shooting seems a little fluky based on his poor FT%. I'd rather have Jackson.

Smith is a freak athlete and plays big for his size like Mitchell. He boards, gets steals and blocks, and limits TOs too. But his jumper is a bit more goofy and his handle isn't nearly as good as Mitchell's, so I think he'll be more of a complimentary piece. I view him as a rich man's Gerald Green.

And obviously, there's most likely not going to be a Mitchell in this draft.

 

[Huskyforlife]

Sacramento and Atlanta are apparently closing in on Bagley and Doncic, respectively. That would leave Memphis choosing between Jackson and Porter, no?

If Bagley isn't there, I'm expecting a trade, but if not, Jackson.

 

[the Q]

Smith is a freak athlete and plays big for his size like Mitchell. He boards, gets steals and blocks, and limits TOs too. But his jumper is a bit more goofy and his handle isn't nearly as good as Mitchell's, so I think he'll be more of a complimentary piece. I view him as a rich man's Gerald Green.

And obviously, there's most likely not going to be a Mitchell in this draft.

Oh yeah, it wasn't a direct comparison, more like who is going to be the guy outside the to 10 who makes a lot of teams look stupid.

I'm still baffled that Denver traded out. That team with Mitchell is just beyond filthy.

 

[Lefty2one]

I can't imagine Memphis getting a good offer if Doncic and Bagley are gone. From the rumors floating around, the offers they've gotten so far have been terrible. I don't envy their position; they have to pray Doncic falls to them. Maybe they'll be happy with Porter though.

 

[the Q]

I would've put Frazier on my 2nd round list, but he's seemingly on everyone's list and is being projected around 32. He's close enough that I'm not really counting him.

 

[the Q]

I can't imagine Memphis getting a good offer if Doncic and Bagley are gone. From the rumors floating around, the offers they've gotten so far have been terrible. I don't envy their position; they have to pray Doncic falls to them. Maybe they'll be happy with Porter though.

Considering Gasol's age i'd be willing to call Bamba's bluff, but man Jackson is just a really interesting guy. He's an elite defender who can really shoot 3s. He fits in really well with Gasol and Conley. If Memphis is serious about not blowing it up, he's not a back pick there.

Dallas would have to be ecstatic to get Bamba at 5.

 

[Lefty2one]

If I'm Memphis I don't care what Bamba or any other prospect says. I'd take Jackson or Bamba at #4 and be done with it. I like both of them more than Bagley due to their two-way potential. Bagley strikes me as a guy who'll be an empty stat stuffer on a bad team but never be a winner. He'll be close to a 20 & 10 guy but blah.

Although Jackson shot better from deep in college, I like Bamba's stroke more. It's smoother and more natural IMO and I think he'll be the better shooter long term. Bamba's concern is his motor/toughness and that's a huge red flag. You never know though, millions of dollars being at stake can be a hell of a motivator. Bamba is riskier than Jackson to me: higher ceiling but a lower floor.

 

[the Q]

If I'm Memphis I don't care what Bamba or any other prospect says. I'd take Jackson or Bamba at #4 and be done with it. I like both of them more than Bagley due to their two-way potential. Bagley strikes me as a guy who'll be an empty stat stuffer on a bad team but never be a winner. He'll be close to a 20 & 10 guy but blah.

Although Jackson shot better from deep in college, I like Bamba's stroke more. It's smoother and more natural IMO and I think he'll be the better shooter long term. Bamba's concern is his motor/toughness and that's a huge red flag. You never know though, millions of dollars being at stake can be a hell of a motivator. Bamba is riskier than Jackson to me: higher ceiling but a lower floor.

Agreed. With the absurd and laughable ways the NBA has rigged the game for teams, if you hit on a high pick you are basically guaranteed their first like 8 or 9 years.

 

[the Q]

I'm really surprised Phoenix is so locked into Ayton though.

It seemed like all the stars aligned for them to get Doncic. Getting his coach, having a huge hole at PG etc.

 

[TheChamps990411]

Anyone else besides me think Bagley could be a poor mans Kevin Garnett in the NBA?

 

[Lefty2one]

I'm really surprised Phoenix is so locked into Ayton though.

Me too. Like I said earlier, teams must be really concerned with Doncic's athleticism. Besides that, what's the concern over him? He's a 6'8 playmaker who can pass over the top of PnRs, can shoot it, play off the ball, posts up smaller players well (for a 19 year old his post game is ridiculous) when teams throw smaller, quicker players at him.

I have nightmares over a guy like Ayton. Hell, look at how badly Boston killed Embiid in the PnR/PnP and Embiid was nowhere near as a bad a defender in college as Ayton was. I'm not taking a huge, traditional big man in this day and age when someone like Doncic is available.

 

[auror]

I've been draft wonking it up this year.

I'm STILL not convinced that Sac isn't smokescreening for Doncic.

My personal board is:
1. Doncic
2. Bagley
3. J3
4. Ayton
5. Trae
6. Carter
7. Mik Bridges
8. Bamba
9. Porter
10. Miles Bridges
-- Really solid top 10 TBH. A lot of high potential or immediate impact guys here. Big tier dropoff here and not much differentiation after this point.
11. Shai Gilgeous
12. De'Anthony Melton
13. Zhaire Smith
14. Robert Williams
15. Sexton

 

[Lefty2one]

Anyone else besides me think Bagley could be a poor mans Kevin Garnett in the NBA?

No. KG is arguably the best PnR defender in the last 25 years. Bagley isn't in the same universe defensively.

 

[auror]

Anyone else besides me think Bagley could be a poor mans Kevin Garnett in the NBA?

Doesn't have Garnett's wingspan.

Bamba much more likely to be in that mold. He's been improving his shooting stroke.

 

[the Q]

I've been draft wonking it up this year.

I'm STILL not convinced that Sac isn't smokescreening for Doncic.

My personal board is:
1. Doncic
2. Bagley
3. J3
4. Ayton
5. Trae
6. Carter
7. Mik Bridges
8. Bamba
9. Porter
10. Miles Bridges
-- Really solid top 10 TBH. A lot of high potential or immediate impact guys here. Big tier dropoff here and not much differentiation after this point.
11. Shai Gilgeous
12. De'Anthony Melton
13. Zhaire Smith
14. Robert Williams
15. Sexton

My list drops off at 9. I probably have SAG over Bridges. And Smith over both. And props not having Walker up there. The top 2 tiers in this draft are absurdly strong. Robert Williams is probably a top 5-8 pick in each of the last 2 drafts and he's bubble lotto in this one. Crazy.

Melton is a lot like Rozier but with a full year off I'm hesitant to move him up that high. But I applaud your boldness, he has the ability to be up there.

 

[the Q]

Me too. Like I said earlier, teams must be really concerned with Doncic's athleticism. Besides that, what's the concern over him? He's a 6'8 playmaker who can pass over the top of PnRs, can shoot it, play off the ball, posts up smaller players well (for a 19 year old his post game is ridiculous) when teams throw smaller, quicker players at him.

I have nightmares over a guy like Ayton. Hell, look at how badly Boston killed Embiid in the PnR/PnP and Embiid was nowhere near as a bad a defender in college as Ayton was. I'm not taking a huge, traditional big man in this day and age when someone like Doncic is available.

The concerns with Doncic are all about athleticism. Finishing at the rim. Defensively. Creating off the bounce. All question marks. It's not easy to get by with creativity.

Plus, I can't seem to find anything about his wingspan. Which is obviously a major ? for every prospect (if you played an NBA Draft night drinking game around wingspan....people would die).