I'm not an attorney either. But I do believe GoRs can be broken (i.e. - negotiated out of) because of one very simple fact: in all of this craziness of CR with schools coming and going, not once did an existing TV deal get negotiated down after a school left a conference. All of the following schools have left a conference without the departed conference losing one cent of revenue from its existing TV deal: Nebraska, Colorado, Texas A&M, Missouri, Syracuse, Pitt, Louisville, Maryland, Rutgers, TCU and Utah. I'm also not a TV Executive, but if the thought of a school leaving (and taking their content with them) is so damaging to the departed conference's value of content, why haven't any existing contracts been re-opened to reflect that? Granted, some of the migrated schools (like Pitt), don't drive any ratings or have a large following whatsoever. But I find it surprising that a school like Nebraska, with their huge following, can leave a conference without lowering the B12's deal. In fact, the B12 replaced 4 schools (Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, Texas A&M) with 2 (WVU and TCU) and still didn't lose one cent from their existing deal. That's partly the reason why they are so reluctant to add more schools to play a Championship Game. If these rights were so valuable, how come this hasn't been reflected at all in any of the CR moves to date?
Yes, one could argue that it's not in the existing deal but in future deals that the departed conferences will lose value. But I say poppycock to that. I don't see any money being taken off the table within the Power conferences, which is what we are all debating anyway. The more successful conferences are launching their own networks with year-round content. The less successful conferences are either looking into launching their own network or debating adding a Championship Game and bidding the rights to air that out.
I see the GoR as an added clause that can be negotiated. The issue has always been that it's nearly impossible to come up with a dollar figure as to what each school's rights are valued. Enter mediation. The conference will no doubt submit an astronomical figure and the school will submit a dollar menu figure and both will put it into the hands of a third party. Given that no existing deals have been negotiated down when a school has left a conference, I see this as something tangible to point towards to keep the GoR values on the lower side. The sticking point is that whatever the value/fee that the third party will come up with, it will likely add more dollars to an already large exit fee. For an ACC school to leave, you're looking at the $51M + GoR fee (ex - an additional $30M) for a total that is now approaching $100M. That's a lot of scratch. It's not as high for B12 schools to leave which is why I think we're more likely to see schools like Kansas, Oklahoma, and then ultimately, Texas, challenge their conference's GoR before we see an ACC school challenge its GoR. If a B12 school can negotiate an all-in exit fee between $20-$50M, they'll likely make that back very quickly if they were to leave for a power Power conference, such as the B1G.