The View From Section 241 — Liberty

[UConnJim]

As someone who likes Sagarin, I think he does a better job with college basketball than college football. He has the Big 12 as the #1 league right now. Yeah.

Look closer at the ratings. On a simple average basis, Sagarin rates the SEC-West the top group with the B12 second. Sagarin also has a central mean rating which gives a higher weight to the schools in the middle of the conference and progressively less weighting to the higher and lower schools and the central mean rates the B12 1st. Makes sense since the lowest rated B12 team is WVU at #50. B12 is strong in the middle and it is not top or bottom heavy.

If you use the Sagarin ratings now and use them for UConn's games, they are fairly accurate:

Utah St.: Predicts 6.7 point loss and it was 11 point loss.
CCSU: Predicts 33.8 point win and it was a 25 point win.
Syracuse: Predicts 10.5 point loss and it was a 34 point loss.
Michigan: Predicts 37.5 point loss and it was a 59 point loss.
NC St.: Predicts 20.1 point loss and it was a 31 point loss.
Fresno St.: Predicts 9.4 point loss and it was a 5 point win.
FIU: Predicts a 10.8 point win and it was a 21 point win.
Ball St: Predicts a 6.6 point loss and it was a 4 point loss.
BC: Predicts a 2 point loss and it was a 10 point win.
UMass: Predicts a 18 point win and it was a 17 point win.
Liberty: Predicts a 7.3 point loss and it was a 3 point win.

You have to remember, college football has fewer datapoints than college basketball so the statistical models take more time to normalize. And, the Syracuse, Michigan, and NC St., losses were pretty negative for the model and you can see the turn starting with the Fresno St. game.

 

[Patman]

So you're saying the computers underestimate UConn worse than Liberty just did.

No. The computers don't overrated liberty. We took two cactus to the face losses one against nc state and have a lackluster win against a 1-9 CCSU team

 

[businesslawyer]

I think this is a decent discussion about computer rankings. I would add two points as to why computer models may be (in my view) substantially underrating us.

1. The models don’t adjust, or don’t adjust enough, for more recent results. We obviously have been a different team from the Fresno State win, but we’re still weighted down by the three straight blowouts.

2. While many models “compress” blow outs, and pay less attention to the difference between losing by 30 and 35 then they do the difference between winning by 5 and 10, they may not compress results enough. Did we really learn anything from what happens in the Michigan, Syracuse and NC State games after the outcome was decided?

The line against Army, to me, is absurd. If I were in Vegas this week instead of last week, I would place the single largest bet I have ever placed, as to me this is more of a pick ‘em game. Why do the computers start Army as favorites? Largely for these factors. We get no credit for the improvement we’ve made during the season, and the models are impressed by how easily Army blew out opponents in its unimpressive wins versus how badly we lost three games we had little chance in. To me, neither of those factors has much bearing on what should be expected Saturday, and even working hard to see it I don’t see why anyone thinks Army is going to beat us handily.

 

[Patman]

I will say, I ran my "I don't trust it" computer model with each week having .9 less weight multiplicatively (week 0 is basically half weight) and UConn jumps to 91 amongst FBS schools from 103. Take from it what you will.

edit: .8 less weight per week uconn goes to 80.

 

[businesslawyer]

I will say, I ran my "I don't trust it" computer model with each week having .9 less weight multiplicatively (week 0 is basically half weight) and UConn jumps to 91 amongst FBS schools from 103. Take from it what you will.

edit: .8 less weight per week uconn goes to 80.

You're really serious about your computer models. I'm very impressed.

 

[RedStickHusky]

You're really serious about your computer models. I'm very impressed.

I thought I was on the wrong board for a minute.. CalTech or something.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

Only credit I will give Edsall is, he did recruit well but for some reason could not develop any of the players due to the incompetent staff that he had and he was just not a players coach.

Edsall 1.0 recruited well, and even that could be somewhat attributed to Orlando, Ambrose, and Moorehead. Edsall 2.0 could not recruit himself out of a paper bag, much less win ball games. By Edsall 2.0 he was an old and bitter man, partly from his experiences at Maryland which were, in reality, of his own making. Except for Orlovsky and a couple others he never recruited well in UConn’s home state.

 

[Dizzy21]

Edsall 1.0 recruited well, and even that could be somewhat attributed to Orlando, Ambrose, and Moorehead. Edsall 2.0 could not recruit himself out of a paper bag, much less win ball games. By Edsall 2.0 he was an old and bitter man, partly from his experiences at Maryland which were, in reality, of his own making. Except for Orlovsky and a couple others he never recruited well in UConn’s home state.

Mora brought in half a new team with a good deal of P5 transfers and for the most it's Edsall guys that are making the plays and talked about. Edsall was a crappy coach for sure, but he did find talent, just couldn't develop it.

 

[noeynox]

Edsall 1.0 recruited well, and even that could be somewhat attributed to Orlando, Ambrose, and Moorehead. Edsall 2.0 could not recruit himself out of a paper bag, much less win ball games. By Edsall 2.0 he was an old and bitter man, partly from his experiences at Maryland which were, in reality, of his own making. Except for Orlovsky and a couple others he never recruited well in UConn’s home state.

I mean the majority of the players on the roster were recruited by him. Watts, Yates, Durante Jones, J. Mitchell. Swenson was a Diaco recruit. He recruited some good players. But you also have coach them.

 

[freescooter]

I mean the majority of the players on the roster were recruited by him. Watts, Yates, Durante Jones, J. Mitchell. Swenson was a Diaco recruit. He recruited some good players. But you also have coach them.

Which was somewhat strange since Edsall 1 was noted for how well he DEVELOPED guys who were too raw for the higher rated programs. But I put some of that at least on the assistants he could get during his second run. He had a great offensive line coach in his first run. 2nd time not as much. Same with DC, and he had several very good OCs in his first run. 2nd not so much. I don’t know how much of that was on Edsall and how much was on the AD trying to do this on the cheap. And I am told by someone who is an Edsall friend that he was livid over the move to independence. It is possible he just said the hell with it.

 

[businesslawyer]

Which was somewhat strange since Edsall 1 was noted for how well he DEVELOPED guys who were too raw for the higher rated programs. But I put some of that at least on the assistants he could get during his second run. He had a great offensive line coach in his first run. 2nd time not as much. Same with DC, and he had several very good OCs in his first run. 2nd not so much. I don’t know how much of that was on Edsall and how much was on the AD trying to do this on the cheap. And I am told by someone who is an Edsall friend that he was livid over the move to independence. It is possible he just said the hell with it.

I don’t have any inside information, and nothing excuses how completely and thoroughly the second Edsall regime failed. But if I had to guess, I would guess your last two sentences probably nail it. To be withdrawn from a conference without even having been consulted, he probably just quit. But please be clear — that is not an excuse and, while you’re taking a pay check, isn’t acceptable.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

I mean the majority of the players on the roster were recruited by him. Watts, Yates, Durante Jones, J. Mitchell. Swenson was a Diaco recruit. He recruited some good players. But you also have coach them.

Sure, Edsall recruited Watts, Mitchell, Jones. Good players, but he had 4 years to improve a team that was basically an FCS team talent and skill wise, and he barely budged the needle, if at all. I mean RE 2.0 was a disaster, as was his stint at Maryland. Please preface what I’m saying here with my previous post. Compare all that with his recruiting and coaching with RE 1.0 where he sent 22 players on to the NFL and you’re comparing an ant hill to K2. From the Fiesta Bowl to his time after Maryland, something changed in the coach and the man. I mean 3 or 4 wins in 4 years, getting shellacked by Holy Cross, he was done as a coach and I’ve yet to talk to someone who knows why. Not sure what happened at Maryland but I did hear the players didn’t like him.

 

[Guru13]

Sure, Edsall recruited Watts, Mitchell, Jones. Good players, but he had 4 years to improve a team that was basically an FCS team talent and skill wise, and he barely budged the needle, if at all. I mean RE 2.0 was a disaster, as was his stint at Maryland. Please preface what I’m saying here with my previous post. Compare all that with his recruiting and coaching with RE 1.0 where he sent 22 players on to the NFL and you’re comparing an ant hill to K2. From the Fiesta Bowl to his time after Maryland, something changed in the coach and the man. I mean 3 or 4 wins in 4 years, getting shellacked by Holy Cross, he was done as a coach and I’ve yet to talk to someone who knows why. Not sure what happened at Maryland but I did hear the players didn’t like him.

I am not sure where the FCS talent stems from but according to Rivals the Uconn recruiting ranks were
2015-99
2016-NR
2017-89
2018-89
2019- NR
2020-79
2021-86

If Mora can turn most of Edsall roster to be at 6-5 currently then it pours a lot on coaching because I only count 5 total guys who Mora brought in that are starting. Those 4 years Edsall had, he couldn't develop the roster. Also have to take account into how young the roster was because Edsall did not bother replacing a lot of guys he booted out with talent from the transfer portal because he felt portal guys had some type of "entitlement".

 

[ShakyTheMohel]

I am not sure where the FCS talent stems from but according to Rivals the Uconn recruiting ranks were
2015-99
2016-NR
2017-89
2018-89
2019- NR
2020-79
2021-86

If Mora can turn most of Edsall roster to be at 6-5 currently then it pours a lot on coaching because I only count 5 total guys who Mora brought in that are starting. Those 4 years Edsall had, he couldn't develop the roster. Also have to take account into how young the roster was because Edsall did not bother replacing a lot of guys he booted out with talent from the transfer portal because he felt portal guys had some type of "entitlement".

What's shocking is that Edsall couldn't even field a good FCS team let alone a respectable FBS team.

 

[noeynox]

I am not sure where the FCS talent stems from but according to Rivals the Uconn recruiting ranks were
2015-99
2016-NR
2017-89
2018-89
2019- NR
2020-79
2021-86

If Mora can turn most of Edsall roster to be at 6-5 currently then it pours a lot on coaching because I only count 5 total guys who Mora brought in that are starting. Those 4 years Edsall had, he couldn't develop the roster. Also have to take account into how young the roster was because Edsall did not bother replacing a lot of guys he booted out with talent from the transfer portal because he felt portal guys had some type of "entitlement".

Even Victor Rosa was an Edsall recruit. Who knows the reason, but the man just didn't look like someone trying to win games. Even still, the results this year indicate he was finding good players. Our DL manhandled BCs OL, who played well this week against NC State. Our OL this week didn't give up a sack after to Liberty after I watched them harass the crap out of Arkansas QB. He left decent talent here. But don't take it from me, Mora and Charlton said the same thing.

 

[huskyblooz]

I knew we were toast, when coming off the COVID year, Edsall said that the players had 2 years to learn the scheme.
Well, the schemes didnt work before, you stubborn old ****

 

[giddyup]

The remarkable work is winning 5 of 6 after getting obliterated 3 weeks in a row. It would have been so easy for the team to tank. Instead, they have gotten stronger week over week. They believe they can beat people, and that makes a huge difference.

 

[freescooter]

I don’t have any inside information, and nothing excuses how completely and thoroughly the second Edsall regime failed. But if I had to guess, I would guess your last two sentences probably nail it. To be withdrawn from a conference without even having been consulted, he probably just quit. But please be clear — that is not an excuse and, while you’re taking a pay check, isn’t acceptable.

Not excusing it. I agree with you completely. Just reporting what I have heard.

 

[Nostical]

Burns is just solid. Runs hard, makes great cuts and protects the ball. Rosa is not going down on the first hit.

We talked about Coach Sammis and the improvement in the O line. Now throw in RB coach Barthel. The run game has been a key for us and these coaches got the most out of our players. Someone mentioned tackling had vastly improved—that’s coaching. And the comment by one of our posters about how the players “still believed” even after the 3 shellackings—that’s a testament to HC Mora. Like at Kansas, it’s amazing to see how the right coach can work wonders and the wrong coach can keep you buried for years.
Unlike in prior years this team does not go down “on the first hit”.

 

[Nostical]

The line against Army, to me, is absurd. I don’t see why anyone thinks Army is going to beat us handily.

Vegas isn’t just analyzing the admittedly weak computer models. They’re also factoring in a potential letdown by UConn after bowl eligibility euphoria and the heart of an Army team playing at home for the last time this year after a disappointing season. The key to this game, more than us coping with the triple option is whether Mora can convince the players about the urgency to win and be a 7-5 team—to continue shocking the football media, improve our Bowl prospects, and raising their own profiles. If he can, we’ll win. I think he can. Take the points.

 

[Bubba1957]

Edsall (and Cory) recruited much better than Diaco. My seats were behind the bench and you could easily see better athletes were committing. I posted about it a number of times. One of the reasons I thought they would start winning (I was wrong).
The coaching and schemas were just bad. The running game had one play left or right. Took forever to develop and was easy to plan for. Contrast to this years staff where they run multiple formations (that diamond one is cool) and have a mixture of quick hitters, stretches and options. They very much remind me of the 49ers.
Mora and his staff are going to coach up, scheme up, build up and encourage guys to be their best. No excuses from them or their players. Here we are approaching Thanksgiving with something else to be thankful for, UConn football.

 

[Bongo Fury]

RE refused the transfer portal. Only dinosaurs do that these days.

He didn’t refuse it but didn’t utilize it enough. Kinda like Dabo. Part of it was he likely wasn’t good at convincing good transfers although some of the ones he got have been successful here.

 

[Bongo Fury]

Sure, Edsall recruited Watts, Mitchell, Jones. Good players, but he had 4 years to improve a team that was basically an FCS team talent and skill wise, and he barely budged the needle, if at all. I mean RE 2.0 was a disaster, as was his stint at Maryland. Please preface what I’m saying here with my previous post. Compare all that with his recruiting and coaching with RE 1.0 where he sent 22 players on to the NFL and you’re comparing an ant hill to K2. From the Fiesta Bowl to his time after Maryland, something changed in the coach and the man. I mean 3 or 4 wins in 4 years, getting shellacked by Holy Cross, he was done as a coach and I’ve yet to talk to someone who knows why. Not sure what happened at Maryland but I did hear the players didn’t like him.

Kids today don’t seem to respond to tough love well.

 

[CONN78SEJ]

I am not sure where the FCS talent stems from but according to Rivals the Uconn recruiting ranks were
2015-99
2016-NR
2017-89
2018-89
2019- NR
2020-79
2021-86

If Mora can turn most of Edsall roster to be at 6-5 currently then it pours a lot on coaching because I only count 5 total guys who Mora brought in that are starting. Those 4 years Edsall had, he couldn't develop the roster. Also have to take account into how young the roster was because Edsall did not bother replacing a lot of guys he booted out with talent from the transfer portal because he felt portal guys had some type of "entitlement".

Most of the FCS talent stems from Red Pants tenure.

 

[uconndogs]

Most of the FCS talent stems from Red Pants tenure.

Crazy Bob recruited a basketball team and a slow one at that.