Options available for the PAC-12

[huskymedic]

While PAC-12 still have Oregon and Washington, they just have better media properties vs. the B12. If I am the PAC-12, I make offers to multiple B12 teams now before Oregon and Washington get their B1G offers.

 

[bobbyinaz]

As I've said throughout all of these threads, ESPN & FOX will determine what conferences, and more importantly, what schools make the Premier League and who gets relegated

 

[shizzle787]

As I've said throughout all of these threads, ESPN & FOX will determine what conferences, and more importantly, what schools make the Premier League and who gets relegated

Pac-12 is the more valuable brand with the more valuable brands.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Pac-12 is the more valuable brand with the more valuable brands.

I look at it different than you.

You keep trying to decide which conference(s) will survive.

I think there will be 2 mega conferences and then 1 conference of the best of the rest which will include schools from the ACC, B12, PAC and possibly a few G5 schools. What that conference will be called and how big it will be will be determined by TV although I think it will be 16+ schools.

My focus is more on what schools make the cut, not which conferences survive. The name of the conference that gets put together will be meaningless

 

[shizzle787]

I look at it different than you.

You keep trying to decide which conference(s) will survive.

I think there will be 2 mega conferences and then 1 conference of the best of the rest which will include schools from the ACC, B12, PAC and possibly a few G5 schools. What that conference will be called and how big it will be will be determined by TV although I think it will be 16+ schools.

My focus is more on what schools make the cut, not which conferences survive. The name of the conference that gets put together will be meaningless

Conferences make the ultimate decision, not schools.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

Pac-12 is the more valuable brand with the more valuable brands.

Exactly. PAC12 has 2 dead weights in Oregon State and Washington State while B12 has multiple dead weights. Right before the next media contract negotiations, there will be a consolidation to get rid of dead weights. It is looking more and more like PAC12 will take the lead on this vs. the B12.

 

[gioff2323]

The Big 12 is in much better shape on this than people realize. There's no way the current B12 teams are going to want to be dragged into a majority of west coast time zone situations and end up with that ball and chain. They're doing a tv deal right now, and can pick and choose offering some of those P12 teams. They'll end up a winner in this as they have a better overall fball and bball product right now and without out a doubt once you drop Usc and Ucla. Their new commissioner is a pretty sharp guy as well. They don't have Bowlsby weighing them down.

They might be in slightly better shape, but only because other than KS, they have no attractive properties that might be of interest to what’s quickly becoming the P2.

Pac12 is doing right thing by entering into negotiations. They just can not get Marianatto’d like a certain conf did. They need to ask fox which additions would add the most value, whether B12 properties (Baylor, TTU, Kansas and either KSU or ISU) or G5 (SDSU, BSU, UNLV). PAC can still sell west coast with foray in to Texas).

WTF does the B12 offer to media partners after OU and bevo leave? Who is their lead dog? What key tv markets have they secured? Does adding Denver, phoenix and SLC move the needle?

 

[Kolumbo]

My new hunch is the PAC 12 and Big 12 will be fine. Too many cooks in the uber conference spoil the broth. Too many chiefs and not enough Indians. UCLA will drop a notch or two because it will suffer from being way too far from it's basketball mates. USC might suffer too. So they will not be the same programs the PAC 12 is currently losing. If the ubers continue to add, then sure, chances are the PAC gets hit too hard. But for now, I think it could survive fine, even if it means adding a Boise State and Gonzaga. Half of your games are on the road 2 or 3 time zones away. fuggedaboutit.

When big names move to a new, more competitive conference, more often than not they are less successful. historically.

 

[bobbyinaz]

Conferences make the ultimate decision, not schools.

ESPN, FOX and any other potential media revenue sources make the ultimate decision, not conferences

 

[Kolumbo]

Exactly. PAC12 has 2 dead weights in Oregon State and Washington State while B12 has multiple dead weights. Right before the next media contract negotiations, there will be a consolidation to get rid of dead weights. It is looking more and more like PAC12 will take the lead on this vs. the B12.

I don't get the dead weight comments but who in the Big 12 are considered dead weight? Granted the programs are not UT and OU but they're not exactly BCU either. The PAC was ranked 8th in conference rpi last year.

 

[Rufus]

My new hunch is the PAC 12 and Big 12 will be fine. Too many cooks in the uber conference spoil the broth. Too many chiefs and not enough Indians. UCLA will drop a notch or two because it will suffer from being way too far from it's basketball mates. USC might suffer too. So they will not be the same programs the PAC 12 is currently losing. If the ubers continue to add, then sure, chances are the PAC gets hit too hard. But for now, I think it could survive fine, even if it means adding a Boise State and Gonzaga. Half of your games are on the road 2 or 3 time zones away. fuggedaboutit.

When big names move to a new, more competitive conference, more often than not they are less successful. historically.

I think the opposite on UCLA and USC. With the NIL, the LA teams will thrive in recruiting. If they remain the only CA teams in the B1G, they will have a stranglehold on CA recruits who want to play in the P2, but remain in CA. Add to that the B1G money and prospect of the top B1G brands coming to LA on a regular basis. Both schools have the opportunity to be among the elite each year.

 

[Kolumbo]

I think the opposite on UCLA and USC. With the NIL, the LA teams will thrive in recruiting. If they remain the only CA teams in the B1G, they will have a stranglehold on CA recruits who want to play in the P2, but remain in CA. Add to that the B1G money and prospect of the top B1G brands coming to LA on a regular basis. Both schools have the opportunity to be among the elite each year.

That could be true. LA is so culturally different from the Midwest though I'm not sure how well it will recruit that area.

 

[dayooper]

I don't get the dead weight comments but who in the Big 12 are considered dead weight? Granted the programs are not UT and OU but they're not exactly BCU either. The PAC was ranked 8th in conference rpi last year.

KSU, UCF (they get so little of the Florida market), TCU and ISU would all pull down the total amount. UCF has some potential, but Florida already has 3 big programs. 4 Texas schools is too many. If OSU falters, they will be a drag down as well.

The Big12 only has 1 state where it doesn’t compete with a school in the Big10 or SEC (Kansas). If you say LA and NoCal are different the PAC’s markets aren’t shared with anybody in the Big 2. If you count Cali as 1, you are in a state that had 40 million people and you are concentrated in the 6th largest market. WSU and OrSt would be the biggest drag. Cal is probably a drag as well, but not like the majority of the Big12.

I would take a conference with anchors of Oregon, Washington and Colorado over Baylor, OSU an Kansas.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

That’s the ticket…

That's great and all, but the PAC12 isn't going to get a huge media deal without a long term GOR included. And you are never going to get Oregon and Washington to agree to a long term GOR deal right now with potential B1G possibilities out there.

The PAC12 is in the same spot the Old Big East was after the initial raid. They can secure their future with a very great media deal right now, but it would take every school agreeing to it for the long term--and that is not going to happen when a few of them have their eyes on a potentially larger prize. This is early 2000's Big East all over again...and we all know how that ended.

When discussing who Conference Realignment screwed the worst, the answer may not automatically be UConn as it is now. We may have Washington St and Oregon St in the conversation with us soon.

 

[Kolumbo]

KSU, UCF (they get so little of the Florida market), TCU and ISU would all pull down the total amount. UCF has some potential, but Florida already has 3 big programs. 4 Texas schools is too many. If OSU falters, they will be a drag down as well.

The Big12 only has 1 state where it doesn’t compete with a school in the Big10 or SEC (Kansas). If you say LA and NoCal are different the PAC’s markets aren’t shared with anybody in the Big 2. If you count Cali as 1, you are in a state that had 40 million people and you are concentrated in the 6th largest market. WSU and OrSt would be the biggest drag. Cal is probably a drag as well, but not like the majority of the Big12.

I would take a conference with anchors of Oregon, Washington and Colorado over Baylor, OSU an Kansas.

At the same time, the reason the Big 12 is in states that compete with B1G and SEC is because those are football states. Cincy, WVU, Houston, BYU, Kansas, Okie State, Tex Tech, Baylor, Iowa State - They are hardly dead weight.

 

[don356]

At the same time, the reason the Big 12 is in states that compete with B1G and SEC is because those are football states. Cincy, WVU, Houston, BYU, Kansas, Okie State, Tex Tech, Baylor, Iowa State - They are hardly dead weight.

It's that, and the Pac12 has well known issues with tv viewership. You put more teams not even in it's time zone and that will not help.

 

[dayooper]

At the same time, the reason the Big 12 is in states that compete with B1G and SEC is because those are football states. Cincy, WVU, Houston, BYU, Kansas, Okie State, Tex Tech, Baylor, Iowa State - They are hardly dead weight.

ISU certainly is dead weight. No one wants the distant 2nd in an extremely small state. Cinci, Houston, Texas Tech are great adds. Okie State is dependent on their ability to play great football. While Mike Gundy is very good, what happens when he retires? It’s not a hotbed for coaches to travel too.

Could the Big12 win out? Sure, but it’s easier to deal with the dead weight of the PAC than the Big12.

Now, if Oregon and Washington bolt, all bets are off. I can see both forming a new conference losing all of the dead weight.

Utah, Colorado, Arizona, ASU, Houston, Texas Tech, Baylor, Cinci, Okie St and UCF would give 10 in some pretty good places with some pretty good teams.

 

[Urcea]

ISU certainly is dead weight. No one wants the distant 2nd in an extremely small state. Cinci, Houston, Texas Tech are great adds. Okie State is dependent on their ability to play great football. While Mike Gundy is very good, what happens when he retires? It’s not a hotbed for coaches to travel too.

Could the Big12 win out? Sure, but it’s easier to deal with the dead weight of the PAC than the Big12.

Now, if Oregon and Washington bolt, all bets are off. I can see both forming a new conference losing all of the dead weight.

Utah, Colorado, Arizona, ASU, Houston, Texas Tech, Baylor, Cinci, Okie St and UCF would give 10 in some pretty good places with some pretty good teams.

I would contemplate adding Memphis and maybe a good Mountain West team into that mix

 

[shizzle787]

 

[dayooper]

If they don’t extend their GOR, then no one is committed to anything. I know I said they could negotiate out, but it would be not smart to extend if you are looking.

 

[Billy Jack]

The big 12 is toast. With UT and Ok gone, they have no markets that any networks want and no national brands in football.

 

[Billy Jack]

I don't get the dead weight comments but who in the Big 12 are considered dead weight? Granted the programs are not UT and OU but they're not exactly BCU either. The PAC was ranked 8th in conference rpi last year.

Doesn’t matter. This is about dollars. They have no markets and no national football brands.

 

[UConnJim]

I think a combination of some PAC 12 and Big 12 schools makes sense and adds value. PAC 12 needed to move east by 2 time zones to be able to offer noon games on Saturdays and reasonable Thursday night games. It’s hard playing a Thursday night game that starts at 5 PM Pacific time. A new combined conference with a full slate of football time slots is more valuable than the current leftover PAC 12.

 

[RioDog]

Yup - and this is the time to officially "professionalize" the leagues, schedules and championships.

4 divisions of 6 teams in each conference. 5 games every year vs your division, and 6 games vs a different division from your conference. Plus 2 cross conference games. 13 regular season games.

BIG and SEC have a 6 team playoff each (4 conference winners + 2 wildcards) just like the NFL. Winners of each league play each other for the national championship. 11 total playoff games to sell.

Traditionalists and fans of teams outside the 2 conferences will hate that. But I think it would be awesome and better than the arbitrary CFP system in place now.

Who will watch that crap? Not college football fans. As I've stated before there's a limit to how much you can monkey with a model before a critical mass of people stop giving a $#!+.

Question: if a farm league for the NFL that parallels its structure is so great why hasn't the NFL developed one over the last 80 years?

Farms leagues in others sports don't generate anything like the revenue or fan base that college football does in its current state. I believe (and hope) that school and conference leadership are smart enough not to create the bastardized structure you describe. The golden egg-laying goose that is the inclusive multi-conference, great match-up, Cinderella-dreams product that is college football will certainly be throttled. That would be sad beyond words.

 

[McLovin]

Who will watch that crap? Not college football fans. As I've stated before there's a limit to how much you can monkey with a model before a critical mass of people stop giving a $#!+.

Question: if a farm league for the NFL that parallels its structure is so great why hasn't the NFL developed one over the last 80 years?

Farms leagues in others sports don't generate anything like the revenue or fan base that college football does in its current state. I believe (and hope) that school and conference leadership are smart enough not to create the bastardized structure you describe. The golden egg-laying goose that is the inclusive multi-conference, great match-up, Cinderella-dreams product that is college football will certainly be throttled. That would be sad beyond words.

The fans of the 48 teams would watch, and that’s probably like 80% of the total college football fans who currently watch the sport.

The reason the NFL hasn’t developed a minor league is because there would be 0 brand power for those clubs and it wouldn’t work. But colleges, especially traditional football schools, have massive and powerful brands people want to watch.

UConn football sucks but (some) people still show up or watch on TV. Why? It’s certainly not the product. It’s the brand.

Multiply the power of the UConn brand x100 and you’ll understand why a super league with all the best college brands will work.

P.S. Only 1 “Cinderella” this century has had a chance to compete for a National Title and they got throttled in the semi-finals… Cinderellas don’t exist in college football.