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Options available for the PAC-12

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nelsonmuntz

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Stanford could drop D1 football this evening and it would still be one of the top universities in the country with a massive endowment. They are not scrambling, leagues should be scrambling to add them.
 
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Stanford could drop D1 football this evening and it would still be one of the top universities in the country with a massive endowment. They are not scrambling, leagues should be scrambling to add them.

I think Stanford, Oregon, Washington and ND all get added to the B1G. The B12 then adds the remaining PAC 12 schools and the PAC 12 disappears.
 

nelsonmuntz

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We can all guess at what happens next, but WHY is this happening? Money? Will the Top 2 block out everyone else? Do they have the muscle to do that?

I have not seen a holistic analysis of what happens next.
 
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We can all guess at what happens next, but WHY is this happening? Money? Will the Top 2 block out everyone else? Do they have the muscle to do that?

I have not seen a holistic analysis of what happens next.

IMO this is a move from 5 to 4 power conferences and all four will be competing for the same championship. I don't think there will be a separation amongst the P4. The B1G and SEC risk alienating too many fan bases and injuring their own product if they try to separate.

The big question will be what happens to the G5 leagues. Do they keep their spot at the table? UCONN needs to do everything they can to secure a spot in the P4 this time around.
 
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IMO this is a move from 5 to 4 power conferences and all four will be competing for the same championship. I don't think there will be a separation amongst the P4. The B1G and SEC risk alienating too many fan bases and injuring their own product if they try to separate.

The big question will be what happens to the G5 leagues. Do they keep their spot at the table? UCONN needs to do everything they can to secure a spot in the P4 this time around.
Power 2 conferences for football.
 
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Financially yes, two conferences will be making more money than the other two. Competitively I still see a P4 competing for one championship.

Can a financially weaker league still compete? Hell yeah, we just saw Cincy do it from a league that makes almost no money.
I think eventually the two conferences will completely break away from everyone else.
 
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We can all guess at what happens next, but WHY is this happening? Money? Will the Top 2 block out everyone else? Do they have the muscle to do that?

I have not seen a holistic analysis of what happens next.
OK, I'll play.

I think within 5 years the B1G & SEC get to 24 teams each. Yes, I'm very aware of the ACC GOR but I believe ESPN & FOX will engineer and fund it.

At that point I think the SEC & B1G will forgo the current College Football Playoff and will create their own championship just like the NFL currently does. Sankey has already publicly stated that the SEC may have its own championship.

Each conference has their own playoff and then the 2 winners play for the championship. Between them they can sell 7 playoff games to the networks.

The current CFP pays $75MM to each of the P5 conferences plus some money to the playoff schools and $90MM that the G5 split. So the total being paid out is almost $500MM but the SEC & B1G currently can only make a max of $90-$100MM.

By breaking away and creating their own championship they get to keep it all to themselves.
 
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IMO this is a move from 5 to 4 power conferences and all four will be competing for the same championship. I don't think there will be a separation amongst the P4. The B1G and SEC risk alienating too many fan bases and injuring their own product if they try to separate.

The big question will be what happens to the G5 leagues. Do they keep their spot at the table? UCONN needs to do everything they can to secure a spot in the P4 this time around.
Not happening. Established conference members are being dropped. New members from outside the P5 are not being added. This is contaction, not expansion.
 
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We can all guess at what happens next, but WHY is this happening? Money? Will the Top 2 block out everyone else? Do they have the muscle to do that?

I have not seen a holistic analysis of what happens next.
As I see it, the old, traditional conferences were originally assembled for reasons that are now largely irrelevant. The result has been that in the modern world there are schools which bring in lots of revenue, paired with schools that don’t. The classic example of this is Texas in the Big XII. Schools are tired of bringing in revenue and then sharing it with schools who don’t pull their weight. In this current realignment, schools in tiny markets and without national brands are the most vulnerable.

I think that the basic goal is to bring as many big revenue producers as possible under the same umbrella(s). In this scenario, the B1G and the SEC are the kings and everyone else becomes second tier. I think this is obvious to college administrators and will send schools scrambling quickly for those 2 conferences. As a result the Pac-12, the Bug XII and the ACC will all implode with new 2nd tier leagues emerging to house the remnants. The smart money would be new basketball-focused leagues for football schools being built to maximize their basketball revenue. Thus could lead to a league building around schools like these:

Duke
Louisville
Syracuse
UConn
West Virginia
Pitt
Cincinnati
Houston
TCU
Kansas
Baylor
Oklahoma State
 
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The Big 12 is in much better shape on this than people realize. There's no way the current B12 teams are going to want to be dragged into a majority of west coast time zone situations and end up with that ball and chain. They're doing a tv deal right now, and can pick and choose offering some of those P12 teams. They'll end up a winner in this as they have a better overall fball and bball product right now and without out a doubt once you drop Usc and Ucla. Their new commissioner is a pretty sharp guy as well. They don't have Bowlsby weighing them down.
 
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While PAC-12 still has Oregon and Washington, they will have the upper hand to poach B12 schools. They are doing the right thing to start media negotiations since the media partners (FOX or ESPN) will tell them which teams from the B12 can enhance the media deal. With that information, I believe PAC-12 will go into expansion mode and poach whatever teams from the B12 they want, and it will essentially put B12 on the same tier as the AAC.

If Oregon and Washington leave in the next few weeks, then B12 will poach whatever teams they want from the PAC-12.

Let's hope ND will make their decision so everything else will be in motion shortly.
 
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While PAC-12 still has Oregon and Washington, they will have the upper hand to poach B12 schools. They are doing the right thing to start media negotiations since the media partners (FOX or ESPN) will tell them which teams from the B12 can enhance the media deal. With that information, I believe PAC-12 will go into expansion mode and poach whatever teams from the B12 they want, and it will essentially put B12 on the same tier as the AAC.

If Oregon and Washington leave in the next few weeks, then B12 will poach whatever teams they want from the PAC-12.

Let's hope ND will make their decision so everything else will be in motion shortly.
No way. The B12 will not hitch it's wagon to anything with Oregon in it. Fleeting presence. P12 lost it's center of gravity when Usc/Ucla left.
 
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No way. The B12 will not hitch it's wagon to anything with Oregon in it. Fleeting presence. P12 lost it's center of gravity when Usc/Ucla left.
While PAC-12 still have Oregon and Washington, they just have better media properties vs. the B12. If I am the PAC-12, I make offers to multiple B12 teams now before Oregon and Washington get their B1G offers.
 

McLovin

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OK, I'll play.

I think within 5 years the B1G & SEC get to 24 teams each. Yes, I'm very aware of the ACC GOR but I believe ESPN & FOX will engineer and fund it.

At that point I think the SEC & B1G will forgo the current College Football Playoff and will create their own championship just like the NFL currently does. Sankey has already publicly stated that the SEC may have its own championship.

Each conference has their own playoff and then the 2 winners play for the championship. Between them they can sell 7 playoff games to the networks.

The current CFP pays $75MM to each of the P5 conferences plus some money to the playoff schools and $90MM that the G5 split. So the total being paid out is almost $500MM but the SEC & B1G currently can only make a max of $90-$100MM.

By breaking away and creating their own championship they get to keep it all to themselves.
Yup - and this is the time to officially "professionalize" the leagues, schedules and championships.

4 divisions of 6 teams in each conference. 5 games every year vs your division, and 6 games vs a different division from your conference. Plus 2 cross conference games. 13 regular season games.

BIG and SEC have a 6 team playoff each (4 conference winners + 2 wildcards) just like the NFL. Winners of each league play each other for the national championship. 11 total playoff games to sell.

Traditionalists and fans of teams outside the 2 conferences will hate that. But I think it would be awesome and better than the arbitrary CFP system in place now.
 

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