It's the question of what are the pollsters looking at for value to a team's season: is it head-to-head, is it overall schedule strength to wins-losses ratio, is it good wins versus bad losses?
USC has perhaps the toughest schedule strength of all teams: they are #1 in SOS, #1 in ELO, #1 in RPI, and #3 in NET. Their only loss thus far is by 8 pts to #4 12-1 NC St.
NC St. has the current #21 SOS. Their non-conference SOS is currently 118th. They have an overtime loss by 12 pts to a 9-7 un-ranked Virginia Tech. They had just barely beaten Virginia Tech by 2 pts at home 4 days earlier. Yes, they didn't have Cunane.
USC has played 15 games thus far. Their 14 wins have come against opponents who are a combined 126-64 (.663) on the season at this point - they played 12-4 Alabama twice. NC St. has played 13 games thus far: their 12 wins have come against opponents who are a combined 86-56 (.606). They've played 9-7 Virginia Tech and 5-7 Boston College twice.
The question is how much do the pollsters place on NC St. missing a top player for their Louisville game: this season with the covid, there have been most all programs that have had to deal with key players being out of lineups due to quarantining, of entire games being canceled and postponed at last minutes, of team's practice schedules being uprooted and scrambled, or shut down completely.
The game they lost to VT on the 28th was a rescheduling of the game in a slot that originally was set for Duke. The game prior to that vs VT that they won by 2 pts on the 24th was the first game the Wolfpack played in 3 weeks, so even WITH Cunane, had they lost they would have had a valid excuse for not playing well. But most all teams have this excuse to varying degrees this season. Can the pollsters weigh and consider all of this?
Perhaps the pollsters ranked USC above NC St. not due to any head-to-head, but due to the OVERALL weight of each team's schedule strength, and found USC's schedule to be more challenging. Perhaps they felt that USC's single loss was not as "bad" of a loss as NC St's single loss.
Who can say for sure: Tennessee has beaten Kentucky, Arkansas, and Indiana, and all 3 of those teams are ranked higher than the Lady Vols.....in BOTH polls. And each of those teams have more losses than UT does.
UCLA has 2 losses - one of them to Stanford - but both losses are to top-10 ranked opponents (one of those was to Stanford), and UCLA is ranked ABOVE Stanford in both polls - Stanford has one of its 2 losses to an un-ranked 5-8 Colorado.
I imagine that each and every team's ranking position has its own unique story-line.....
You make some valid points and I don't disagree with anything you've said...except for one thing I'll address in a moment. I just want to point out, as you mention, that the January 24th game was the team's first in three weeks. Two starters (Kayla Jones and Kai Crutchfield) had just been released to play
that day as conclusion to their COVID protocols and Camille Hobby, off the bench, had also just been released to play. Jones and Crutchfield combined for 42 points (22 and 20) and we needed every one of them to beat an efficient VT squad that day.
Less than 96 hours later, we had to play that same team again, and for the second time, without our main centerpiece. In her place, Camille Hobby played the best game of her career in the Red and White; Jones and Crutchfield combined for 13 points and both were gassed by the end of the game. I suspect fatigue set in and that those two hadn't fully recovered from the extensive effort they put forth the previous Sunday. As it was, we did force OT but just didn't have the legs left in OT to put up much of a fight for an extra 5 minutes.
You do, however, make the same judgement error that other BY posters have in dismissing VT because of their record. I have already documented in several other threads that their 7 ACC losses were by 6, 10, 5, 4, 2, 3 and 2 points...a little research would reveal that VT has three perimeter shooters at 40+% for the season...so they have been in just about every game and sadly for them, had always seemed to fall on the "bad" side prior to getting over the hump and defeating NC State. Would we have won if Cunane had been in there? I don't know; Kitley still got her points...but it was our inability to stop Aisha Sheppard that doomed NC State; after holding her scoreless in the first half, she scored 28 in the 2nd half and OT. Again, I blame the lack of conditioning brought about by the COVID break...but as you mentioned, all teams have had to go through something similar. NC State had nothing left in the tank by the end of our second go-round with VT within 4 days.
(I really hope Virginia Tech can get a bid to the national tournament so other teams can battle them and see what the weapons the Hokies have to offer.)
Then, NC State recovered sufficiently to defeat Louisville, but with the return of our main post player.
It's just kind of interesting that NC State has now beaten two #1s, on each #1's home floor, (the first team in the modern era of WBB to do that in the regular season) and yet, we look up in the polls at one of the teams we defeated. And in the media poll, we're behind BOTH of them (although that will likely be corrected in the next AP poll, provided we can get by arch nemesis UNC on Sunday).
NC State needs just three more weeks at #2 in the AP poll to become the team that has held the #2 position for more weeks than any other without ever attaining a #1 ranking (a record currently held by Stephen F. Austin). Being this close to that notoriety, I don't know if I really want NC State to top the AP poll until we pass the Ladyjacks for that "bridesmaid-but-never-the-bride" record.
Doesn't really matter. Polls are really just conversation pieces. What will really matter is who cuts down the nets in April at the end of the national tournament. Your team has a great chance to win it all. This might be the best team NC State has ever fielded in WCBB. Other teams have great chances, too. The national tournament could be one of the most exciting in years, with no really dominant team and lots of contenders (and I do believe NC State is a contender this year...not a pretender)...plus, the upset here or there that's bound to occur...all wrapped around the unknown of which players...or what teams...might be severely impacted by the looming threat of COVID.
