Where does UConn go from here?

[nelsonmuntz]

Since I think the Boneyard is still a UConn board, maybe we could have a thread about UConn's options going forward, rather than more discussions about the glory of the Big 10, or wishcasting about the ACC's demise unless it somehow affects UConn.

The Big East seems like a reasonable home for men's and women's basketball for the foreseeable future. Football's schedule and near-term revenue is obviously an issue.

As I have said for the last few months, college sports is getting hit with a whirlwind of change between the end of the cable bundle/streaming, NIL, Transfer Portal, the 12 team college football playoff, and the demographic cliff. Any one of them by itself would have been the biggest event to hit college sports in the last 40-50 years. All 5 are happening at once.

There are several ways this could break right for UConn, in my order of likelihood:

1) Football splits off from the NCAA and sets up its own conferences. This is the most realistic best option for UConn. UConn could stay in the Big East for basketball, and find a schedule in a football only league.

2) ESPN renegotiates out of its long-term linear deals. The end of the cable bundle would seem to make these long-term linear deals with the conferences really expensive and likely money losers for ESPN.. ESPN may try to pivot to becoming a streaming co-operative type business in a post-cable bundle world. In a streaming coop, driving subscribers is critical, and the nature of scheduling could change quite a bit. This option is the only realistic path for UConn to be added to any existing conference if football does not break off from the other sports.

I think NIL and the Transfer Portal will flatten talent dramatically among programs, even spreading high caliber players out to non-P4 programs in football and mid-majors in basketball. Players need to get on the field to get paid, and a lot of G5 programs are in cities where boosters and local corporations can move the needle. If the talent gap between the P4 and G5 shrinks, more pressure will be put on ESPN's expensive linear contracts.

3) I do not see a path for UConn to be added to any all-sports P4 conference as long as the linear deals survive. As they roll off, anything is possible, but that is a long way off.

One way where things could break very badly for UConn:

1) The P2 or P4 really collude to lock out the non-P4,and split off. I think this is unlikely and would destroy college sports and their own gravy train, but it is possible that something like this happens. UConn's athletic program would be finished if this happened.

 

[noeynox]

I fear your last option is the most likely. Several schools the most vocal perhaps being Florida State have stated on record, they're the most watched, have had the most success and deserve the lion's share. The Alabamas and Ohio States may not say it out loud, but i doubt they believe any different.

If football continues to be key to all this, they need to find a way to pay the coach and his assistants competitive money to retain them.

 

[Urcea]

In the near term, it’s essential to get a better TV deal - stream or no stream (prefer stream) - plus negotiate a bowl tie in somewhere.

Mid-term, it may be necessary to start trading basketball non-con games for football scheduling depending on if the conferences begin to increase their conference games

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I fear your last option is the most likely. Several schools the most vocal perhaps being Florida State have stated on record, they're the most watched, have had the most success and deserve the lion's share. The Alabamas and Ohio States may not say it out loud, but i doubt they believe any different.

If football continues to be key to all this, they need to find a way to pay the coach and his assistants competitive money to retain them.

Two thoughts on that:

1) If you game theory out what a P2 will look like, the probability of college sports collapsing completely as a major revenue generator is about 80%. A viable P2 has a really narrow path to success, and the NFL and NBA would have to effectively allow a direct competitor to exist when they could wipe it out pretty easily. You would also see a marked decrease in participation by athletes if the opportunities to play at the highest level were cut by 50% or 75% or whatever the number would turn out to be.

2) If you believe that, then shouldn't UConn cut football immediately to stop the cash burn? Are you in favor of cutting football?

 

[WrenchFan69]

Unfortunately, I think the most likely outcome is the status quo persists and UConn is forced to cut football somewhere in the 2030s, along with numerous other schools. Let's hope not

 

[noeynox]

Two thoughts on that:

1) If you game theory out what a P2 will look like, the probability of college sports collapsing completely as a major revenue generator is about 80%. A viable P2 has a really narrow path to success, and the NFL and NBA would have to effectively allow a direct competitor to exist when they could wipe it out pretty easily. You would also see a marked decrease in participation by athletes if the opportunities to play at the highest level were cut by 50% or 75% or whatever the number would turn out to be.

2) If you believe that, then shouldn't UConn cut football immediately to stop the cash burn? Are you in favor of cutting football?

No. Obviously the hope is to stay in it as long as you can and be a part of whatever break off there is if there is one.

I truly don't know where it goes next. Of the scenarios you posted, that one seems like the most plausible to me. It was shocking when ESPN financed the Big East's demise. Then we watched FOX do the same to the PAC, a conference with a 100 year history. Guessing any future move is just guesses.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The Demographic Cliff thread got locked for some reason, even though it is very relevant here. Schools like Purdue have successfully expanded outside their campus through Purdue Global (which was rebranded after an acquisition of an online, for profit college by Purdue), and there will be more of that going forward. If you do start to see mergers between schools, or alliances that end up effectively being mergers, college athletics will change a lot.

 

[noeynox]

The Demographic Cliff thread got locked for some reason, even though it is very relevant here. Schools like Purdue have successfully expanded outside their campus through Purdue Global (which was rebranded after an acquisition of an online, for profit college by Purdue), and there will be more of that going forward. If you do start to see mergers between schools, or alliances that end up effectively being mergers, college athletics will change a lot.

Wasn't Seton Hall a leader in that type of stuff or at least the online space way before anyone else?

 

[noeynox]

Unfortunately, I think the most likely outcome is the status quo persists and UConn is forced to cut football somewhere in the 2030s, along with numerous other schools. Let's hope not

Hate to say it, but this is how i see it too. The time will come when there is a real decision to be made about Rentschler Field. What do we think the useful life of that place is? 30-35 years?

 

[hoopsfan22]

Get rid of sports. Problem solved.

 

[noeynox]

Get rid of sports. Problem solved.

Lot of non athletes make millions off college sports. Where there are millions being made there will always be competition to horde all or most of the money.

 

[UConnJim]

I have heard people say conference realignment was mostly over for years and we just went through the biggest realignment ever. (Remember when people said Louisville got the last life raft out of the G5?). Five years ago, did anyone expect the Pac 12 to implode? I doubt it. Right now, the P4 conferences have 16 schools (SEC and Big 12), 18 schools (Big 10), and 15 or possibly 18 schools (ACC). Conference realignment is not over.

I have always hated when people say UConn is screwed and that we do not control our own destiny. That's bull! The problem for UConn hasn't been basketball, baseball, hockey, non-revenue sports, but football. We showed we could compete in a BCS conference, but when the Big East imploded, to outsiders, it looked like UConn gave up on football. Although the hires didn't work out, UConn thought they were making good hires when they hired PP and Diaco. The resumes were OK, but the results weren't. Then, we hired Edsall 2.0 on the cheap, left AAC football, and closed the program for COVID for the 2020 season. Do those decisions show football is important? In my opinion, there was no choice in leaving the AAC, but the Edsall on the cheap hire and shutting down in 2020 were self inflicted wounds. Although Mora seems to have been a great hire, it was probably viewed as another hire on the cheap. If we had payed him $3 million per year, people would have said we are committed to football. Sometimes, optics matter.

I think the next 3 years are crucial for UConn football. This season it is very important that UConn football shows progress. I don't know how we can do it, but we need to invest more in football and show conferences we are committed to winning football. Perhaps we need to cultivate rich donors to invest in football. Maybe we reduce the athletic department bureaucracy and invest it in football.

 

[billybud]

Things evolve...

When I was in college, if you wanted to watch your team, you went to the game. Many listened to the game on the radio.

Players on a team like FSU, Mississippi, etc could go through a college career without being on TV.

89 games were broadcast in 1983 when the NCAA was still controlling the TV scheduling...After the 1984 Supreme Court ruling, in 1984, there were 200 games on TV in 1984

 

[UConnJim]

Going back to 2006/2007, UConn football averaged close to 40k fans per game. In 2006 that was within 2k fans of Miami, Stanford, Miss. St., Louisville, Rutgers, Oregon St. and more than BC, Syracuse, Baylor, Vandy, Indiana, and Wake Forest. We were on the path to expand the Rent as we were probably the fastest growing college football program in the country. (We had gone from averaging 15k in Storrs to almost 40k at the Rent in 5 years.)

Football is the most popular sport in the US and UConn football has the ability to thrive in a market that has no professional sports and no dominant college football program.

 

[yuckformak]

I think technology gets UConn in somewhere. Linear TV is on the way out. A crappy economy will speed things up as people look to cut costs. Comcast pretty much flipped the bird to MSG and you can't even get the knicks or ranger games in the NY Demo they cover. When people are given the choice to purchase something like the ACC network things like MBB and WBB become way more valuable. I still think UConn is B12 bound at some point.

 

[Kolumbo]

Two thoughts on that:

1) If you game theory out what a P2 will look like, the probability of college sports collapsing completely as a major revenue generator is about 80%. A viable P2 has a really narrow path to success, and the NFL and NBA would have to effectively allow a direct competitor to exist when they could wipe it out pretty easily. You would also see a marked decrease in participation by athletes if the opportunities to play at the highest level were cut by 50% or 75% or whatever the number would turn out to be.

2) If you believe that, then shouldn't UConn cut football immediately to stop the cash burn? Are you in favor of cutting football?

This thread is key because we just don't know what will happen with so many unknowns. We know there is a P2, at least today, and we are with the rest. There are over 130 D1 football programs so there are many D1 level student athletes who will need a place to play. Instead of trying to chase the P2 model, the rest of us may need to align with a MAC model at least for football only. That would be a much easier pill to swallow for us than for programs like SU and BCU.

I don't know if the P2 dollars are sustainable but the networks just killed the PAC 12. I look at that and I almost don't care about a conference affiliation anymore.

 

[JMick]

There are a few potential scenarios. I'll list them in what I consider the most likely

1.) The P2 breakaway for all sports. Everything seems to be heading this way. It's a very typical short term profit move that execs love even if it's bad for the long-term health of the sport

2.) Things stay mostly the same until the ACC breaks up, most schools get absorbed into the B1G, SEC and Big XII. A new eastern league starts up and we have an opportunity to join. We decide not to join because the brands left aren't much better than the AAC and it would be bad for basketball. The power conference dream is over and we drop football.

3.) Only a few teams from the ACC leave, the rest of the schools do what the PAC12 didn't and decide they're better off together and we get a spot in the 4th best football conference.

4.) Football somehow decouples itself from the current model. Maybe the NCAA does it with some government backing to try and save itself. We get FPS (football playoff subdivision) in addition to FBS and FCS. FPS is a select number of schools that need to hit certain criteria that will only benefit the top programs. FBS becomes a quasi-independent scheduling alliance type of situation or conferences become short term things (4 or 6 year agreements, so either 2 or 3 home and homes) and they go out for bid at the end of every cycle. FPS dangles some sort of carrot to give FBS teams hope that they can somehow get into the FPS, so FBS becomes even more cut throat than it already is. Teams find themselves in different "conferences" twice a decade to try and position themselves into getting one of the coveted FPS spots. The rest of the sports regionalize and become more stable.

 

[CCSU97]

Going back to 2006/2007, UConn football averaged close to 40k fans per game. In 2006 that was within 2k fans of Miami, Stanford, Miss. St., Louisville, Rutgers, Oregon St. and more than BC, Syracuse, Baylor, Vandy, Indiana, and Wake Forest. We were on the path to expand the Rent as we were probably the fastest growing college football program in the country. (We had gone from averaging 15k in Storrs to almost 40k at the Rent in 5 years.)

Football is the most popular sport in the US and UConn football has the ability to thrive in a market that has no professional sports and no dominant college football program.

That attendence and growth was fully predicated on being in a BCS conference, NYE Bowl access, and being part of the club of "Major" college football.

Most UConn football fans are only invested in the program for the perceived "importance" that the National media puts on it - and there aren't enough die-hards compared to other programs with a longer histories at National level.

UConn football doesn't have the long history or pedigree at the top level and the 7-year stint at the BCS level was a gift of opportunity that no longer exists.

UConn football will never be a part of the top level ever again. The powers that be won't let that happen - exclusion. UConn football can survive, but at much lower expectations than a P5-P2 club.

 

[JMick]

That attendence and growth was fully predicated on being in a BCS conference, NYE Bowl access, and being part of the club of "Major" college football.

This is more common among programs than not. There are very few schools that don't compete at the top level that sell out, and they're usually in places with literally nothing else to do.

 

[djct1999]

College athletics has become the wild west. At some point, Congress will step in. If UConn, or any flagship university, wants to continue to play football, they will be able to. I dont think any of us know what it will look 10-15 years out. I think we can all agree it wont look like it does now, for better and/or worse.

 

[CCSU97]

There is no external threat to cut UConn football. It can absolutely survive outside of the BCS/P5/P2. It seems some here don't care to support a post-BCS program.

The question for the school is how do you reset (lower) the budget and fan expectations equivalent for a "non-major" program? If you can't sell G5/Indy football in Connecticut, that's on the school and fan base.

The issue here is fan ego. Too many want UConn football = Iowa football. The reality is UConn football = Hawaii football.

 

[noeynox]

There is no external threat to cut UConn football. It can absolutely survive outside of the BCS/P5/P2. It seems some here don't care to support a post-BCS program.

The question for the school is how do you reset (lower) the budget and fan expectations equivalent for a "non-major" program? If you can't sell G5/Indy football in Connecticut, that's on the school and fan base.

The issue here is fan ego. Too many want UConn football = Iowa football. The reality is UConn football = Hawaii football.

Doesn't have to be Iowa, but Hawaii is a bit rough. Give me Iowa State.

 

[JMick]

There is no external threat to cut UConn football. It can absolutely survive outside of the BCS/P5/P2. It seems some here don't care to support a post-BCS program.

The question for the school is how do you reset (lower) the budget and fan expectations equivalent for a "non-major" program? If you can't sell G5/Indy football in Connecticut, that's on the school and fan base.

The issue here is fan ego. Too many want UConn football = Iowa football. The reality is UConn football = Hawaii football.

I do think there's merit to the argument that if you're not competing to win a national championship then don't bother competing. I don't know if I agree with it but it's not an unreasonable mentality

 

[CCSU97]

Doesn't have to be Iowa, but Hawaii is a bit rough. Give me Iowa State.

Yeah, but I think the Hawaii comparison is much more appropriate. Hawaii is literally an island to itself in it own time zone and own small media market that it shares with no one. Connecticut has is its own small market stuck in isolation between NY and Boston. Both have to recruit heavily out-of-state.

The Rainbow Warriors are relatively new to I-A football (1970s) and UConn is even newer (2001). They have had a window of National prominence (2007 Sugar Bowl; Tommy Chang) similar to UConn (Fiesta Bowl; Orlowsky). This is not derogatory - I think its fair look at how the both states and the universities fits in the larger National football landscape.

I think the reach for UConn may be Utah, not Iowa State. It is a state of similar size with a big private (BYU) in its backyard. Too many people here compare CT to the rest of the country in the college athletic landscape and it just doesn't fit. We are in a region dominated by pro sports, littered with better known and funded privates, and bigger state flagships that have a much longer history at the highest level of football. We also don't have a State economy or social culture built on UConn despite what some on this message board try to suggest.

From November to March, UConn basketball has become a much watch events and have brough a general sense of State pride. But too many people here overstate the impact of the UConn athletics as a whole. We don't have the college sports culture of an Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi - all states we Nutmeggers all look down on for a host of other reasons.

 

[WestCoastHusky]

1. We need to grow football and our fan base. We need to win football games. I truly believe we can be the #2 football program in the Northeast after Penn State. We have more potential than programs like BCU, RU, Temple, Pitt etc.
2. We need to get football on streaming and linear. A UCONN-only streaming is also fine. Our model might be the future of college football. I genuinely believe it will be just a matter of time when big teams will go on their own if there is more money to be made vs. sharing with teams like Vandy, RU, etc. If we can prove we can attract streaming subscribers, we will be very valuable.
3. We need to grow and market our women's basketball program. Nebraska just got 92K for the women's volleyball game. Our women's basketball team is a goldmine we haven't mined completely yet. We can do better.
4. Look to join forces with teams that might want to form an FB-only national conference. We are fine in the Big East for other sports, but we need to find a home for FB since scheduling with P4 will be more difficult going forward due to the increasing number of conference games.
5. We need to continue to seek boosters who will help fund the NIL and the football program.
6. We need to get more compensation for Mora and the coaching staff to keep the team in place.
7. We need to get CT state officials to put maximum pressure on ESPN to get us into a P4 conference. We all know it is not the conferences that make the final decision but the media networks. If tomorrow ESPN decides to pay UCONN pro rata rate for a P4 conference, we would be in the following day. We have less leverage with FOX, but we need to work the back channels as well.
8. Work with the Big East to maximize the next media contract. Big East should target to expand if it will help bring a media deal that's over $10M per team.
9. Work with pro teams in the area like the Yankees, Red Sox, etc. for cross-marketing opportunities.