Probably don't need a new thread on this but I've always thought it would end up with 2 huge power conferences who break away in football. In the meantime I see it going to 3 power conferences with the Big 12+ being the power weakling. I think they'll all get to 20 in that period of time before the Big-whatever and SEC decide to pick off the rest of the properties they deem valuable. If UConn is left out in the next few days who will Yormark and the Big 12 brass add to get to 20? Hawaii, UNLV, Cal-State Fullerton, Harvey Mudd? The Banana Slugs? The Lumberjacks?
All of this is idiotic and will devalue college sports in the long run but I still can't see them being dumb enough to decide to take a flamethrower to the tournament and college basketball, there's just way too many valuable college basketball programs.
New threads are better than page 523 of an old one.
What I see happening….
The Big Ten and SEC get to 20-22 schools. (Mid-2030s)
The Big 12, still alive, also gets there. If they go to 16 now, figure something like SU, Pitt, UL, Duke, maybe VaTech, NC State or whoever was left after the Big Ten/SEC eat. There’s likely a catch-all conference that assembles the misfit toys in something that would make the AAC look like a bus league.
Prior to that, the power conferences, even the dying ones, break away from the NCAA because money is king and the power conferences no longer want to dribble money down to Bates and Assumption and whoever else gets a pittance from the NCAA.
Mid-conferences like the BE, A10, etc., are left in an AFL/NFL relationship with the power conferences in hoop.