USF Will Beat UConn This Year!

[JavaMan]

According to Debbie Antonelli, "At some point, this year, they [USF] are gonna have a game that they are going to win over Connecticut."

Her rationale is that because UConn's MOV over USF progressively decreased over their three meetings last year, that this trend will continue this year when conference play begins and result in a win for USF.

They did impress last year and are continuing to do so this year, but beat UConn? Will it happen?

I don't think so.

 

[pinotbear]

I think UCF is gonna find that playing UConn is like differential calculus - just because you get closer and closer to "X", doesn't mean you ever quite get there!

 

[BroadwayVa]

According to Debbie Antonelli, "At some point, this year, they [USF] are gonna have a game that they are going to win over Connecticut."

Her rationale is that because UConn's MOV over USF progressively decreased over their three meetings last year, that this trend will continue this year when conference play begins and result in a win for USF.

They did impress last year and are continuing to do so this year, but beat UConn? Will it happen?

I don't think so.

USF a tough team to play, great talent, and very good coach. Antonelli's assessment has merit!!! The trend of late with Uconn's margin of victory (MOV) drawing less and less (40 to 10) (one of the math majors should present a graph with prediction, only top teams however) if the trend continues and the lack of two type of (uconn) defenses not improving : Dribble drive and 3 point shooting. Uconn may just not pull off the miracle of 11. Heresy? Probably! The sky isn't fall , yet. But a trend is a trend. Can the Master make correction with the talent he has-(-Stew and Moriah can't do everything) Just watched Florida State again--once a dribble started towards the basket, close in, a basket was made. Uconn guards never got in front of the dribbler.
So all you experts have your shot--make 'em good. Apparently a heretic is among you. Is the rack awaiting me??

 

[easttexastrash]

She must be spending a lot of time in Colorado.

 

[BroadwayVa]

I think UCF is gonna find that playing UConn is like differential calculus - just because you get closer and closer to "X", doesn't mean you ever quite get there!

Ah but if you step half way to the wall then half way then half way,etc, you'll come so close the victory is yours. Even in differential calculus you know d(uconn)/d(FSU) is a probability.\
Using your Differential analysis: When, with decreasing MOV's per game, will the MOV turn to MOL. DMOV/Dgames. Or the half way analogy??

 

[DavidinNaples]

Ah but if you step half way to the wall then half way then half way,etc, you'll come so close the victory is yours. Even in differential calculus you know d(uconn)/d(FSU) is a probability.\
Using your Differential analysis: When, with decreasing MOV's per game, will the MOV turn to MOL. DMOV/Dgames. Or the half way analogy??

Here's my simple math.
Stewie + MoJeff + Tuck + Nurse + Collier + Gabby + KLS = USF loses...every time

 

[Anonymous]

David left out X Factor. Butler. This team will be a BEAST the trend will be going in the opposite direction of Debbie prediction.

 

[pinotbear]

Ah but if you step half way to the wall then half way then half way,etc, you'll come so close the victory is yours. Even in differential calculus you know d(uconn)/d(FSU) is a probability.\
Using your Differential analysis: When, with decreasing MOV's per game, will the MOV turn to MOL. DMOV/Dgames. Or the half way analogy??

y'see, this is why I realized, half-way through my sophomore year at college, that I was NOT gonna follow my father's career path and become an actuary.

 

[blaqtech]

USF was my pick to upset UCONN in some thread early this season.

 

[PalPa]

They have a better chance to defeat the Huskies than most of the teams we play. However if our MOV decreases exponentially we will always win.

 

[Ouremblem]

We first see USF January 10th and won't see them again until February 29th. If they don't win in January they're not beating us, though I would think Butler will be playing by then and KLS should have her shot in pretty good order. Maryland would be a bigger concern.

 

[UcMiami]

I personally like the ND trend - lose by 10 in April, lose by 10 in November - hope that trend continues well into the future.

As for other trends ....
Last year Uconn beat ranked teams by 24, this year they are beating them by ... 24 hope that trend continues as well!

 

[Sonny44]

3 points do not make a statistical trend. If you pick three random different numbers one time out of six they will come out in order highest to lowest.

 

[connboy77]

The only way USF beats UCONN is if there is a flu outbreak and half the UCONN Team doesn't play!

 

[Nuyoika]

Deb?

This isn't the right Deb is it?

 

[Nuyoika]

According to Debbie Antonelli, "At some point, this year, they [USF] are gonna have a game that they are going to win over Connecticut."

Her rationale is that because UConn's MOV over USF progressively decreased over their three meetings last year, that this trend will continue this year when conference play begins and result in a win for USF.

They did impress last year and are continuing to do so this year, but beat UConn? Will it happen?

I don't think so.

Can you provide the link to this article it where this statement was made? I can't seem to find it.

 

[UcMiami]

Can you provide the link to this article it where this statement was made? I can't seem to find it.

This was first voiced on a podcast season preview from Dishn and Swishn - it was the segment in which the panelists were asked to make a 'bold prediction' for the upcoming season. And it was later picked up by the fivethirtyeight podcast linked in the news stories a few days ago - the specifics in the OP are from the 538 podcast

 

[Zorro]

When pigs fly.

 

[JavaMan]

When pigs fly.

Uh oh!

 

[Kmoney]

This must be the thread that we dump ridiculous things you find on this inter web thingy

 

[JavaMan]

I was in a mood!

 

[Nuyoika]

This was first voiced on a podcast season preview from Dishn and Swishn - it was the segment in which the panelists were asked to make a 'bold prediction' for the upcoming season. And it was later picked up by the fivethirtyeight podcast linked in the news stories a few days ago - the specifics in the OP are from the 538 podcast

Thanks

 

[JoePgh]

Just watched Florida State again--once a dribble started towards the basket, close in, a basket was made. Uconn guards never got in front of the dribbler.
So all you experts have your shot--make 'em good. Apparently a heretic is among you. Is the rack awaiting me??

I too recently re-watched the FSU game, and while I wasn't specifically looking for this, that is not what I noticed. I did notice Stewie getting 6 blocks, and I think that suggests the basic answer to your dilemma about what happens when a dribble to the basket gets started. Natalie will add to that problem, as Kiah Stokes did last year (also watched the first half of the Texas Sweet 16 game recently).

Certainly in the FSU game, Geno and the players were focusing intently on shutting down the 3-point line, which they certainly did. That will certainly create some opportunities for the opponent to penetrate (and make help defense more difficult), but it doesn't seem like a winning strategy for a UConn opponent. After all, FSU only scored 49 points. They would have had 10 fewer points if Shakayla Thomas's "prayers" had not gone in as often as they did (after bouncing precariously on the rim several times in most cases). Those shots were improbable because she did not have a clean line to the basket -- she had to do contortions to get the shot up, and often it still went in. I don't think UConn has to feel bad about allowing those low-percentage shot attempts, especially when they are rupturing a very good defense at the other end of the court.

On paper, Maryland should have a better chance to beat UConn than South Florida, but I doubt that they will. South Florida will probably get three attempts (a 3rd one in the AAC tournament at Mohegan Sun), and those games might indeed be competitive.

 

[jcoton56]

Please allow me; we're doomed!

 

[Jim R]

According to Debbie Antonelli, "At some point, this year, they [USF] are gonna have a game that they are going to win over Connecticut."

Her rationale is that because UConn's MOV over USF progressively decreased over their three meetings last year, that this trend will continue this year when conference play begins and result in a win for USF.

They did impress last year and are continuing to do so this year, but beat UConn? Will it happen?

I don't think so.

Have always liked Debbie's analysis and commentary...however, with her seeming affection for Staley's crew last year, my appreciation cooled a bit. Of course, after our blow out of them in Storrs, all we heard from Debbie was crickets. This year, prior to our match up with Ohio State, Debbie took to Twitter to say:

"How will UCONN defend K. Mitchell? Deny, shade, 2-2-1 3/4 ct pressure. Hard to trap @OhioState_WBB not many ball screens for Mitchell.....If Vegas not set under/over on total pts Kelsey Mitchell gets tonite vs. UCONN, I will. How bout under/over at 27? For fun, what u fans got?
Doesn't happen often. Who got 30 on UCONN last 11 yrs: Prince 33, Loyd 31, Pohlen 31,Angel 30, Parker 30. How many pts Kelsey Mitchell get?"

Yet, when Mitchell scored all of eight points, and was 2-14 from the field, all we heard from Debbie after the game was, "Taping Ohio State/UCONN. Coaching my 8th grade boys in pre season tourney...." and nothing further. So, perhaps instead of admitting to UCONN's continued dominance , she'd rather ignore it, and keep cheering for the competition!
USF beating UCONN? Fernandez can coach, and they have adjusted to UCONN over the years, but the game shouldn't be close, especially, if Butler is back in the fold with the remaining games under her belt.