UConn predictions

[jostar1]

AAC, hanging on for dear life.

I know we offer value to B1G or ACC for a variety of reasons, and it hasn't matter one whit in all this.

I hope Diaco can pull this off, so it's one less reason to look past us. But right now I see no light at the end of the tunnel.

Deep down, I think you're right. It's just that there are so many tantalizing hints out there that we are going BIG. But then nothing happens. It's very discouraging, especially considering some of the schools that got into a P5 conference or are grandfathered in.

 

[mike012]

The bigger concern is what will the AAC look like in 5-10 years. If teams leave and we aren't one of them I see us going back to the Big East. I don't see how you can destroy basketball for a dream that won't happen if things get any worse. Things getting worse is us being in a league with Marshall...UTSA....blah blah blah... IF that happens we have to leave for basketball sake.

 

[CL82]

Who can say what will happen? My hope is that we are in the Big 10. My fear is that we will be in a depleted ACC. My nightmare is that we will be in a depleted AAC. I do believe that change is coming, however. The B1G's new TV contract will put pressure on the ACC to raise earnings. Does that force one or more team out of the fold? If only one shakes loose does Delaney take UConn as well. Is UConn a ACC replacement team? The only certainty is that we wouldn't see it coming whatever the change is.

 

[whaler11]

I really don't worry about playoff access.

Who they play is a much bigger issue to me.

 

[sportsart]

Oh good, a new topic.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Oh good, a new topic.

Art, me thinks I detect a tad of energy sucking in your post.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

B1G 0.00% - We don't have the cable boxes, we don't have the recruiting grounds for football and we don't have the football tradition even if Diaco turns us around. B1G schools already are giving up Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State games because of Rutgers/Maryland - How can they possibly sell UConn and UVA, etc on top of that?

ACC 10% - I still see the B1G or SEC making one more move. Maybe a NC State gets a B1G invite and a spot opens? You would have to assume the first call would be to WVU though. Unless two teams are plucked, it'll be tough for us. Even at that would you be shocked to see WVU and Cincinnati?

Big12 10% - I've said it here before but I still think there's a possibility the Big12 implodes and we join a leftover Big12 plus the best of the AAC.

AAC 80% - unfortunately this is where we stand. As bad as everything is, the scary thing is that the big 12 is always one phone away from adding Cincinnati and ucf for a title game. At that point, Im bit even sure what we'd do. Try to form a scheduling alliance with the best G5 teams and try and save the hoop program? No clue.

 

[Adios]

Of all the realistically available universities, UConn has to be at or near the top of the Big Ten's acquisition list.

We are. Funny how the OP starts talking about the A-10. Can someone please commit him to an asylum as his avatar insinuates??

 

[sportsart]

Art, me thinks I detect a tad of energy sucking in your post.

Not energy sucking, just amazed on how many threads can be started discussing the same subject. I think Fishy is really Nelson and starts these threads to increase ad views.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

B1G 0.00% - We don't have the cable boxes, we don't have the recruiting grounds for football and we don't have the football tradition even if Diaco turns us around. B1G schools already are giving up Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State games because of Rutgers/Maryland - How can they possibly sell UConn and UVA, etc on top of that?

Simple. We're required for success in the northeast.

 

[itgoeslike]

It's likely that UConn will be in a P5 conference within 5 years. It may take the full 5 years and happen as a byproduct of another school making a move, but it will happen. And when it does, it will be quick and catch some by surprise. The conference that UConn ends up in will be dictated by actions/inactions in response to the catalyst event. All UConn can do is control what it can control, stay engaged, and position itself for success.

Other Influencers:

Lawsuits The selective exclusion of former BCS schools (among others) is complicated and risky. Lawsuits against the NCAA will continue and have the real potential to spread to P5 conferences. It will take a while, but his scenario may help "push" conferences to broaden inclusion, even if modestly, which would open up opportunities for UConn.

Conference Networks This one area where UConn adds value. While Football may not generate the same return, basketball and other sports would deliver great content for an existing or new conference network.

 

[Kolumbo]

A point was made on the radio this morning that the power conferences are too dissimilar in their make up right now. Round robin scheduling vs. championship game, strength of OOC schedule, etc. The way the championship plays out over the next few years will dictate which conferences make moves and why. Bunch of greedy, self-absorbed buffoons.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Simple. We're required for success in the northeast.

Yet every move to date would show that premise to be false.

 

[jostar1]

Oh good, a new topic.

We have to rehash. It's therapeutic. May be part of the acceptance phase.

 

[CL82]

Yet every move to date would show that premise to be false.

Ha, I say. Ha. Which P5 owns the Northeast now? Not one of them. Which has UConn as member? Not one of them. Therefore not having UConn prevents you from owning the Northeast. QED.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Ha, I say. Ha. Which P5 owns the Northeast now? Not one of them. Which has UConn as member? Not one of them. Therefore not having UConn prevents you from owning the Northeast. QED.

What does "owning" the northeast even mean? B1G got the rate it wanted in NYC DMA. Period.

The ACC has more than enough teams that draw in the city.

People keep talking up this mythical owning the northeast, but there are no dollars and cents to that claim or if there was money to be made, it would've been done.

 

[Kolumbo]

Ha, I say. Ha. Which P5 owns the Northeast now? Not one of them. Which has UConn as member? Not one of them. Therefore not having UConn prevents you from owning the Northeast. QED.

The B1G and the ACC currently share, somewhat, the Northeast. And those two conferences currently happen to be 4/5 on the P5 scale. Coincidence?

 

[WestHartHusk]

What does "owning" the northeast even mean? B1G got the rate it wanted in NYC DMA. Period.

The ACC has more than enough teams that draw in the city.

People keep talking up this mythical owning the northeast, but there are no dollars and cents to that claim or if there was money to be made, it would've been done.

Nobody knows if that is true or not.

 

[Kevin Caliendo]

In five and 10 years I think UConn will end up in the ACC. The only reason is that Herbst will basically offer up UConn in all sports but football, which will be dropped. The ACC will take UConn hoops and Olympics and football will stop being a scholarship sport. Its pretty obvious that is the direction this is headed and basically the last shot on goal Herbst and whomever the AD is to save UConn athletics.

The B1G could also be willing to do this, maybe moreso, as they need the inventory and credibility the UConn hoops provides.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Nobody knows if that is true or not.

If you think Delany invited the cesspool that is Rutgers athletics without knowing the rate he wanted and could get, then I don't know what to tell you.

The most historic and second most powerful conference ( behind the SEC) decided to invite Rutgers university based on a hope they could get the rate they wanted.

They knew exactly the effect their decisions were going to have.

 

[specialisthusky]

In five and 10 years I think UConn will end up in the ACC. The only reason is that Herbst will basically offer up UConn in all sports but football, which will be dropped. The ACC will take UConn hoops and Olympics and football will stop being a scholarship sport. Its pretty obvious that is the direction this is headed and basically the last shot on goal Herbst and whomever the AD is to save UConn athletics.

The B1G could also be willing to do this, maybe moreso, as they need the inventory and credibility the UConn hoops provides.

Sheesh call me oblivious but i had no idea that was obvious?

Any scenario that has UConn dropping football is a long long long shot in my opinion.

 

[Dooley]

Let's put all of the "quit playing football" nonsense to bed already. Until the day comes that basketball TV contracts can net UCONN over $20M/yr of revenue, that ain't happening. Basketball-only conferences would mean UCONN having to drop most/all sports, not just football, and let Geno and/or Ollie go because the money wouldn't be enough to pay both of their salaries.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Let's put all of the "quit playing football" nonsense to bed already. Until the day comes that basketball TV contracts can net UCONN over $20M/yr of revenue, that ain't happening. Basketball-only conferences would mean UCONN having to drop most/all sports, not just football, and let Geno and/or Ollie go because the money wouldn't be enough to pay both of their salaries.

So you are saying that if UConn is not prepared to lose millions of dollars per year on football, it won't be able to pay Ollie's or Geno's salary? Is there going to be logic in one of your posts at some point?

 

[ConnHuskBask]

So you are saying that if UConn is not prepared to lose millions of dollars per year on football, it won't be able to pay Ollie's or Geno's salary? Is there going to be logic in one of your posts at some point?

Every time you make this argument, you strictly talk about tv revenue. The AD makes money from other sources and to have this discussion without the specific football data it's impossible.

 

[Dooley]

So you are saying that if UConn is not prepared to lose millions of dollars per year on football, it won't be able to pay Ollie's or Geno's salary? Is there going to be logic in one of your posts at some point?

Are you a moron by nature or choice? Find me a basketball-only conference that pays more than $5M/yr and we can talk.

Ollie - $3M/yr
Geno - $2+M/yr

That is $5M/yr in expenses just on head coaches salary. Is your plan going to fire assistant coaches, admin staff, team managers, trainers, equipment personnel, travel coordinators, etc? I can't wait to see Ollie having to call every Memphis area Motel 6 because we had to fire everyone else. Not to mention, see ya Hockey East, field hockey, soccer, baseball, track, football, etc!

UCONN needs to find a home that can help fund its expenses. We are able to stay afloat for a while thanks to exit fees. Once those run out, we will need to find a conference that can pay significantly more than $5M/yr if we want to employ coaches like Ollie and Geno. It's either that or we have to stop funding every single other athletic employee other than Ollie and Geno. The only way to pay those guys is to try like hell to get into a P5 conference. Otherwise, let me introduce you to Fred Hill or Jerry Wainright as that is the type of coach we can hire for 500K/yr.