The Athletic: College Football Premier League: 28 teams survive in standalone football product.

[JMick]

These are schools that have 3-4-500,000 living alumni and graduate nearly another UConn's worth of new alumni every year. These are fan bases that don't make plans on Saturdays in the fall. That's where the money is. If they lose the small schools and casual viewer than so be it as they aren't worth much anyway. I can tell you if they do something like that or put it all behind a paywall, I ain't paying as a casual viewer of those teams. College football will just become another NASCAR with a rabid but relatively narrow fan base.

No the money is in the casual football fan that turns on football because it's better entertainment than anything else on. Having hundreds of teams means 50 games every weekend with the best games being shown nationally. Since there are so many teams they can always find storylines that follow the entire season and there are plenty of options to choose from.

If it ends up being like the NFL then they'll lose a ton of casual fans because they will just stick with the better product on Sundays

 

[nelsonmuntz]

No the money is in the casual football fan that turns on football because it's better entertainment than anything else on. Having hundreds of teams means 50 games every weekend with the best games being shown nationally. Since there are so many teams they can always find storylines that follow the entire season and there are plenty of options to choose from.

If it ends up being like the NFL then they'll lose a ton of casual fans because they will just stick with the better product on Sundays

+1000, but it is actually more binary than that. If the P2 try to cut the market size down too much, the product will collapse completely. The fans of the major programs won't care nearly as much about the sport if it is no longer a major sport, which it won't be if it shrinks to 20 or even 40 programs. College football, and college basketball, is as big and popular as it is because almost every American has a direct stake in the sport. If the P2 takes away 25% of the fanbase by cutting them out, the sport might find out it has actually taken away 50% or 75% of the fanbase.

 

[UConnJim]

The total home attendance of the 28 schools listed was 14.6 million in 2019. Total FBS attendance was 34.2 million. So, ~57% of the college football attendance in 2019 would not have a school participating in the league. I think that is a huge risk to take for college football and I would expect interest to decline.

Also, no fan base would tolerate mediocre or losing seasons for long and attendance would decline.

 

[c29328]

I said 10 years ago this was the plan. I still believe it today. I think we'll have regionally focused tier 2 football for nearly everybody else. Most people will cheer for their alma mater in tier 2 but since they aren't in the same league as the super teams they will likely have a favorite "premier league" team too. TV will be fine. Likely have a weekend or two of cross pollination. Fundamentally, I can't see Alabama being happy to give 20 million a year they earn to Mississippi State or Vanderbilt. It won't happen forever and a super league is worth billions.

 

[UConnJim]

I said 10 years ago this was the plan. I still believe it today. I think we'll have regionally focused tier 2 football for nearly everybody else. Most people will cheer for their alma mater in tier 2 but since they aren't in the same league as the super teams they will likely have a favorite "premier league" team too. TV will be fine. Likely have a weekend or two of cross pollination. Fundamentally, I can't see Alabama being happy to give 20 million a year they earn to Mississippi State or Vanderbilt. It won't happen forever and a super league is worth billions.

I disagree. Do you think Washington St. and Oregon St. fans are going to root for Oregon and Washington now they are in the Big 10 or a Premier League? Never.

I think if the Premier League happened, the NFL would be the greatest beneficiary. The NFL took Thursday night away from college football, so why wouldn't the NFL play more games on Saturdays?

 

[superjohn]

I said 10 years ago this was the plan. I still believe it today. I think we'll have regionally focused tier 2 football for nearly everybody else. Most people will cheer for their alma mater in tier 2 but since they aren't in the same league as the super teams they will likely have a favorite "premier league" team too. TV will be fine. Likely have a weekend or two of cross pollination. Fundamentally, I can't see Alabama being happy to give 20 million a year they earn to Mississippi State or Vanderbilt. It won't happen forever and a super league is worth billions.

It's quite a plan if they're looking to destroy college football.

 

[JeepCSC]

Unfortunately attendance

The total home attendance of the 28 schools listed was 14.6 million in 2019. Total FBS attendance was 34.2 million. So, ~57% of the college football attendance in 2019 would not have a school participating in the league. I think that is a huge risk to take for college football and I would expect interest to decline.

Also, no fan base would tolerate mediocre or losing seasons for long and attendance would decline.

Funny enough, that is about the split between the EPL and the rest of England’s professional soccer attendance (15 million for the Premier League vs 22 million for everyone else).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I disagree. Do you think Washington St. and Oregon St. fans are going to root for Oregon and Washington now they are in the Big 10 or a Premier League? Never.

I think if the Premier League happened, the NFL would be the greatest beneficiary. The NFL took Thursday night away from college football, so why wouldn't the NFL play more games on Saturdays?

The NFL and NBA are waiting for the day that college athletics makes its own fanbase small enough that the NBA and NFL can drown it in a bathtub and take over the minor league. College sports is a multi-billion dollar industry, and you can bet that the NBA and NFL think that every one of those dollars should be going into one of their pockets. If they sabotage their own product enough, college athletics will enable the NFL and NBA to wipe college sports out.

 

[GoConn]

Your alienating a lot of alumni from a bunch of big time programs. Maybe average college football fans wouldn't care but i think a large part of college football fans would hate this.

 

[giddyup]

+1000, but it is actually more binary than that. If the P2 try to cut the market size down too much, the product will collapse completely. The fans of the major programs won't care nearly as much about the sport if it is no longer a major sport, which it won't be if it shrinks to 20 or even 40 programs. College football, and college basketball, is as big and popular as it is because almost every American has a direct stake in the sport. If the P2 takes away 25% of the fanbase by cutting them out, the sport might find out it has actually taken away 50% or 75% of the fanbase.

Pigs don’t look past their own snouts. They will devour and kill it unless a grown-up steps in to demand a level playing field of amateur college athletics. Those are in short supply.

 

[Kolumbo]

UNC fans might feel the same way about this theoretical travesty as UConn fans did about the Big East/AAC, but worse. First, UNC would be a perpetual football dog. Second, it would lose all of its basketball rivals. Imagine going from the ACC where half the conference is a bus drive away to the B1G where your closest rival is what Ohio State or Penn State?

The upside is that UConn would without question be in a conference with other eaterns football programs and that would be a lot of fun to watch.

 

[hoopsfan22]

Pigs don’t look past their own snouts. They will devour and kill it unless a grown-up steps in to demand a level playing field of amateur college athletics. Those are in short supply.

Define "level playing field." The NCAA puts teams on different levels, so how can there ever be a level playing field given this structure?

 

[uconnyankee]

I disagree. Do you think Washington St. and Oregon St. fans are going to root for Oregon and Washington now they are in the Big 10 or a Premier League? Never.

I think if the Premier League happened, the NFL would be the greatest beneficiary. The NFL took Thursday night away from college football, so why wouldn't the NFL play more games on Saturdays?

This won’t happen. 28 teams can’t just dictate they own college football.

They would have to walk away from NCAA and their would be risks. Would schools let them just jettison football but not other sports? If not NCAA, then these players get paid?

Opening Pandora’s box.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Pigs don’t look past their own snouts. They will devour and kill it unless a grown-up steps in to demand a level playing field of amateur college athletics. Those are in short supply.

The playing field doesn't need to be level, but the power programs need a big market that cares about the outcome of the sport. Markets usually find an equilibrium. The gigantic difference here is ESPN, and to a lesser extent, FoxSports. These are entities on the wrong side of history, sliding to a slow demise. They are capable of anything if they think it will help them in the short term. There may not be a long-term for either of them.

 

[JeepCSC]

UNC fans might feel the same way about this theoretical travesty as UConn fans did about the Big East/AAC, but worse. First, UNC would be a perpetual football dog. Second, it would lose all of its basketball rivals. Imagine going from the ACC where half the conference is a bus drive away to the B1G where your closest rival is what Ohio State or Penn State?

The upside is that UConn would without question be in a conference with other eaterns football programs and that would be a lot of fun to watch.

I think this would simply be football. Basketball would still be playing Duke and whomever.

 

[CTFAN4LIFE]

If these teams broke away they will definitely lose casual fans (and even some true fans) because it will become half a dozen juggernauts with undefeated/one loss records and the rest flirting with .500, which will certainly turn off fans.

 

[huskymedic]

Shortcut <<

 

[CTpessimist]

Unfortunately attendance

Funny enough, that is about the split between the EPL and the rest of England’s professional soccer attendance (15 million for the Premier League vs 22 million for everyone else).

I think you’re onto something. Could you imagine a relegation system within the P2 structure. You win the G(whatever) and next year your team/school moves up and gets the 30M instead of 5M. Heck the winners advance to the playoffs and get the 60M the big10 brings in. The losers of each division get sent down. At least the fans of the G teams would have an interest in the sport and a financial incentive to get better. Unlike now where I don’t see the light at the end of the UConn tunnel anymore though I do enjoy football games either way.

 

[baggerbob]

No the money is in the casual football fan that turns on football because it's better entertainment than anything else on. Having hundreds of teams means 50 games every weekend with the best games being shown nationally. Since there are so many teams they can always find storylines that follow the entire season and there are plenty of options to choose from.

If it ends up being like the NFL then they'll lose a ton of casual fans because they will just stick with the better product on Sundays

The only people watching will be the fans of the winning teams.
Everyone else in the country will move on.
When you have 32 pro football teams, why waste time watching a minor league Association.
That would be a waste of time and money.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

The total home attendance of the 28 schools listed was 14.6 million in 2019. Total FBS attendance was 34.2 million. So, ~57% of the college football attendance in 2019 would not have a school participating in the league. I think that is a huge risk to take for college football and I would expect interest to decline.

Also, no fan base would tolerate mediocre or losing seasons for long and attendance would decline.

Only 20 of the 50 states are represented. I imagine those in the other 30 will find other things to do.

Also, no fanbase that was built on the successes of the team (which is all of them) will suffer through season after season of losing records without losing interest and looking elsewhere. Didn't anyone see what happened to UConn? It's as immutable as Rule #1.

 

[giddyup]

Define "level playing field." The NCAA puts teams on different levels, so how can there ever be a level playing field given this structure?

All FBS schools should have equal access to bowl opportunities, and there should be a luxury tax system like the pros. Only way to stop the insanity.

 

[Waquoit]

My feeling is CFB fandom, like soccer, is basically local. As long as your team has a potential (if not realistic) path to the top of whatever structure is in place, you'll follow the whole thing. If the 28 breakaway, I don't think they take all of existing fandom with them. They'll get their fans and gamblers, for the most part.

 

[RioDog]

My feeling is CFB fandom, like soccer, is basically local. As long as your team has a potential (if not realistic) path to the top of whatever structure is in place, you'll follow the whole thing. If the 28 breakaway, I don't think they take all of existing fandom with them. They'll get their fans and gamblers, for the most part.

Your take largely applies to my little corner of CFB fandom. A "potential path to the top" is all I ask for. While I generally won't watch SEC, BiG, or B12 games except under particular circumstance, I will at least pay attention to the extent it impacts UConn and the 1 or 2 other teams I follow.

 

[superjohn]

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Seriously, are they going to be chartering flights for every field hockey game, volleyball game, soccer game...?

 

[dayooper]

My feeling is CFB fandom, like soccer, is basically local. As long as your team has a potential (if not realistic) path to the top of whatever structure is in place, you'll follow the whole thing. If the 28 breakaway, I don't think they take all of existing fandom with them. They'll get their fans and gamblers, for the most part.

It’s local, but with the intense alumni dedication many of the Big10 schools have, That’s a huge factor. Then through in alumni family like me (grandfather earned his MD at Michigan after he came home from WWII). I have great memories watching Michigan football with my grandparents, mom and dad. It’s the reason I’m a Michigan fan today.

Michigan alumni base is huge and all over the world. Only 27% of the UM student body is from the state of Michigan. MSU probably has as many fans as UM.