Rumor from the .

[Doggie Style]

My "scenario:"

I may be a minority of one, but I believe UCONN’s CR dye has been cast for some time. I now believe that SH, WM and, probably, BD know exactly where UCONN is going. I don’t think BD takes the job if there’s a chance that circumstances he can’t control put him in position to fail. Nor, do I think he brings friends to participate in a suicide mission. Nor, do I think they’d come.

Take things a step further. Two Sundays ago there was a captured audience estimated at 200,000 in Hartford. A significant portion of the crowd had to be voting age adults. Yet, not one State or National Politician took the opportunity to comment on UCONN’s present situation. Not one, “look what bad people have done/are doing to our State, Flagship University and Athletic Department,” or “this is what I would have done .....,” or “this is what I will do...” Argue that the event was closely scheduled or scripted or that the forum might have been inappropriate. I don’t buy it. To a politician, it is red meat to a lion; especially when the only way to make that particular crowd unhappy is to suggest that the school drop sports, altogether. Yet, not one pushy Politician tried to elbow into the proceedings. This follows a long period of political and UCONN Administration silence on the subject of CR. There has to be a “muzzle edict.”

Fanciful as my feelings may seem, they allow me to ignore rumors. In the last week we’ve been told that Cincy is next in line followed by UCONN and Memphis. Now UCONN’s BB championships have created a curious tipping point that is threatening to the point of making ESPN recommend UCONN to the BIG. Talk about extremes? Ride that roller coaster if you like. I believe that it is has been decided.

I "LIKE" bcuz I WANT to believe!!!!!

 

[Limbo Land]

I see what you're saying and I'd offer a third group that would have cause to collude against UCONN: ESPN. They own our rights for $2M/yr (thanks Aresco!). Why on Earth would ESPN advocate on UCONN's behalf, like they did for Pitt after BC led the anti-UCONN charge, when that would mean that they would have to pay 10x what they pay to air UCONN content?

That said, collusion is a dangerous business. If this was happening and if there was ever a mouthy AD like Flipper to open that can of worms, then that would be grounds for UCONN to open up its own investigation to determine if a lawsuit would be necessary. UCONN has said and shown repeatedly that it wants to gain entry into the P5 model. It's also shown that it can be competitive across all of its athletic programs in a P5/BCS conference (including football). I understand that UCONN is "new football money" and many feel that we have to earn our way in by playing 100 years of football, regardless if we're competitive or not (ex - Rutgers). But if CR is all about making money, and UCONN has demonstrated time and time again that it can make money, then colluding against UCONN would be pretty dangerous.

Okay, I am not sure what more can be said about ESPN… unless the BOneyard ponies up some money and find a disgruntled employee who has been axed and has documents stating that ESPN is forcing us outside or we are going to start looking like Mel Gibson from Conspiracy Theory. We know we deserve better but lets look at the real reason we are here.

We got passed over because our university was late to the game of big time football. Football is driving the bus though overall our athletics are superior to teams like Rutgers and Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Our universities undergraduate is on par with all those schools and others in the P5 but again we were late getting into the AAU conversation. We are "New Blood" not "Blue Blood". People say we were just lucky when the Big East passed us a bone to join in basketball. THe see us as an aberration. We are that tech company that blows up overnight "in the figurative sense" and the others resent it. We have for sure come along way in the last 20+ years but unfortunately others perceptions are our reality at the moment.

 

[caw]

If the Big 10 contract is worth $25MM/year/school, over 10 years that is $250MM. The ACC is about 20% less, but that is still hundreds of millions. That is the nut UConn has to bring with them to justify UConn's addition.

It is stating the obvious to say that any interest in UConn in NYC may fade if UConn can not continue to be successful. If the ACC or Big 10 believe that UConn's success is in doubt in the AAC, why not just wait out UConn for a few years and see if the interest fades? Then they can scoop up the residual college basketball interest between them. I agree that Syracuse and the Big East would be best positioned for hoops, but a greater profile in NYC from Rutgers could increase interest in Big 10 schools, many of whom have large alumni presence in NYC.

I understand the reasons why the Big 10 might add UConn at some point. Those are not reasons why the Big 10 WILL add UConn. The Big 10 is clearly waiting for something from UConn, otherwise they would have added the Huskies already.

The phrase hundreds of millions may be technically accurate but it still overstates the point as the amount in discussion is on the far low end of your term.

We will agree to disagree that Rutgers brings (or will in the foreseeable future) anything in basketball for a casual fan that might watch a UConn game.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

You realize (I hope) that you can't do this, because you only control your non-conference schedule?

Yes, conference obligations means we don't have total flexibility. However the realization we probably won't finish 13-0 doesn't mean our best course is something other attempting to do so.

 

[huskyrob1]

Serious question..... Who the hell would want Miami? For ANYTHING!!?? This is not 1991!!!! That University has taken a dive into the Abyss and never looked back!!!

I agree totally, but remember how bad Swofford wanted Miami. He's built a house of cards that partially hinges on a has been school to keep his football league afloat. That being said, the Big 12 would take Miami in a heartbeat.

 

[woomba]

I've seen this argument a few times and it doesn't make sense to me. The AAC $2mil is not for UConn, it's for the slate of UConn-Mem, UConn-Tulane, UConn-SMU, etc.. In basketball alone, a slate of UConn vs. UNC, Syr, Duke, etc. or vs. MSU, Mich, OSU, Ind, etc.... is going to be more valuable. We obviously make either a better basketball conference. I guess the question is can we move the needle for either conference in football, but it's not whether ESPN wants to pay more for what it's already getting - they'd be getting something better.

The question to ask here is how much you think the valuation is driven by the intrinsic value of the school(s) and how much by synergy. There is obviously some synergies at play here but you need to break them out in order to do a proper valuation.

 

[RedStickHusky]

The question to ask here is how much you think the valuation is driven by the intrinsic value of the school(s) and how much by synergy. There is obviously some synergies at play here but you need to break them out in order to do a proper valuation.

Spot on. I think the basketball synergies are obvious if not the valuation; Do you think we can build enough momentum and interest to create football synergies that don't really exist to this point?

 

[Ldandy]

A couple of observations.

The B1G Tier 1 and partial Tier 2 Rights go on the open market for bid in 2016.

Part of this package includes basketball rights currently held by both ESPN and CBS, including the B1G Tournament Semis and Championship Games. I wonder if they would be worth more with a National Title Contending Team situated in the shadows of the media capital of the world? Hey Jim, do you want to host a tourney in MSG or Barclays? You know what you have to do.

August appears to be a very important month for revelations regarding the new P5 Conference Structure. More information regarding the new unbalanced conference structure proposal will definitely be discussed.

IIRC UCONN is still in a position to collect exit fees from the break up of the old Big East. I believe the figure is somewhere in the Ball Park of 20 -30 million dollars. This is not chump change. It will also collect some nice scratch from The AAC's performance in this year's tournament.

Hypothetically UCONN could give the full 27 month notice playing football in The ACC over the 2014, 2015, and 2016 Seasons then pay a manageable exit fee to become a free agent. In the three year window leading up to this Diaco could work to get the program back on a firm footing, your fans will have to do their part in football by selling out The Rent every week.

On the academic side UCONN can use this time to continue working towards AAU Status. This will not be a make or break issue for the conference. Demonstrating an increase in conference payout will be.

Imagine a 2017 season consisting of the following set up.
4 games in division. 1 permanent cross over, and 2 games in each of the other 2 divisions on rotation.

Div A- OSU, PSU, RU, UMD, UCONN.

Swap MSU for OSU if the wonder twins can't be separated. However if they take one for the team, you preserve PSU/OSU, PSU/UMD, PSU/RU, and RU/UCONN as rivalries.

Div B- UM, MSU, PU, IU, IL

UM/MSU is a heated rivalry as is IU/PU and IU/IL. MSU and both Indiana Schools as well as OSU and IL are all trophy games.

Div C- UNL, UW, IA, Minny, NW

Lots of traditional rivalries and sensible geographic match ups.

Nice balance with 2 quality Football Brands in each division. The B1G can petition further for a semi
final round. Can you say cha ching? 3 Divison Champs and one wildcard among whomever finishes with the best combination of conference record and national ranking. That way a school isn't rewarded for having a great year by only one of these metrics.

The B1G could go on this way indefinitely or wait out the end of the Big 12 and ACC GOR. At that point they could take a stab at going to 16, 18 or 20 if the money is there. Personally I believe the ACC is more committed to long term survival than the Big 12 is. I think Kansas would walk over hot coals for a Big 10 invite that reunited them with Nebraska in football and put them in a BBall league with Indiana, MSU, UM, UW, OSU, IL, UMD, and UCONN.

Keep the faith Husky Fans. I believe there is a plan in place, but logistics necessitate things are kept quiet for a while longer.

 

[MSNDfan]

They don't need to trust each other. Swofford just has to know that Delaney can match any offer Swofford would make. If Swofford offered UConn, what would Herbst logically do? Call Delaney before her printer was done printing the offer letter. If Swofford knows that, and knows he can't beat Delaney head to head, then what is Swofford's incentive to offer UConn? Likewise, if Delaney knows Swofford is not going to offer UConn, then why should he rush to do anything? Why not wait, and see how the Rutgers acquisition does and whether it opens up NYC to other Big 10 teams? It's not like Swofford can take us.

A prisoners' dilemma is stable if one of the two parties is much more powerful than the other, because then there is no incentive for the secondary player (in this case the ACC) to break the alliance.

There is every incentive, on the other hand, for both parties to wait. Since each others' moves are visible to the market (if I knew almost a week beforehand that Rutgers was getting invited to the Big 10, how far in advance did Swofford know?) any attempt to grab UConn would trigger a win by the Big 10.

The only way I see one side or the other adding UConn is if one conference starts to emerge clearly victorious in NYC over the next few years, with the loser willing to make an addition.

I think many cannot grasp what you are saying because they have a most powerful desire to see UConn get a double bid and give the ACC the finger.

The BeeOneGee has always been the wealthiest conference - always, every single year of its existence. That means that any school it wants that values money most will go BeeOneGee.

ND does NOT value money most and so keeps refusing the BeeOneGee.

If Swofford has the slightest doubt about UConn's value system and long term preferences, he will not make an offer. Delaney has no incentive to offer UConn because Rutgers gives him all he requires in NYC: a way to demand the highest payment for the BTN from NYC cable.

 

[noeynox]

Well, demanding and getting are two different things.

 

[Fishy]

If Swofford has the slightest doubt about UConn's value system and long term preferences, he will not make an offer. Delaney has no incentive to offer UConn because Rutgers gives him all he requires in NYC: a way to demand the highest payment for the BTN from NYC cable.

Oh, please.

Just stop posting here - please, I'm begging.

You're too stupid.

 

[upstater]

Okay, I am not sure what more can be said about ESPN… unless the BOneyard ponies up some money and find a disgruntled employee who has been axed and has documents stating that ESPN is forcing us outside or we are going to start looking like Mel Gibson from Conspiracy Theory. We know we deserve better but lets look at the real reason we are here.

We got passed over because our university was late to the game of big time football. Football is driving the bus though overall our athletics are superior to teams like Rutgers and Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Our universities undergraduate is on par with all those schools and others in the P5 but again we were late getting into the AAU conversation. We are "New Blood" not "Blue Blood". People say we were just lucky when the Big East passed us a bone to join in basketball. THe see us as an aberration. We are that tech company that blows up overnight "in the figurative sense" and the others resent it. We have for sure come along way in the last 20+ years but unfortunately others perceptions are our reality at the moment.

Mel Gibson in CT was right.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

A few things should be cleared up.

1) People need to stop saying some version of "it's all about football". Every team that has joined a major conference in the last few years has disappointed with the exception of Missouri (which has a much stronger historical basketball rep than football rep) and Johnny Manziel U. Conference realignment is NOT about football. It is about eyeballs.

2) I did not say that UConn would or would not be able to move into a different conference. I said that the current situation encourages our most likely suitors to wait us out, and time is not on our side.

So what should UConn do about this?

As it relates to eyeballs, UConn needs to stay at the top of the heap in both basketballs, and become better in football. The latter will be very difficult. UConn is a fun bandwagon to jump on, and I am happy to make room for casual fans. Strong ratings in Connecticut AND New York are table stakes to get into the ACC or Big 10. That means no off years in hoops, and football needs to be competitive with middle of the pack P5 conference schools. This requires money that UConn does not have, which means the Administration has to commit to losing money with the Athletic Department. It appears that it has, but that won't last indefinitely.

Financials

The financial commitment by the Administration is nice, but in the intermediate term, UConn's athletic department has to become self-sustaining financially, before student fees. If the Big 10 and ACC are waiting to see if UConn goes away, an athletic department that is bleeding red will only encourage further waiting. If UConn wants to get invited to a P5, it needs to show that the athletic department is financially sustainable. Additional revenue will have the added bonus of validating UConn's value to the new league.

We need the AAC "look in" to pay off, or we need to find revenue from another source. Everyone goes bats*** whenever I say Big East, so everyone is welcome to come up with another answer. But the UConn athletic department needs more revenue.

I would not be surprised to see UConn sell road games. Why pay a MAC school $1.5MM for a 7th home game when UConn can sell its road game for over $2MM? I don't think the demand is there for 7 home games if there are more than 1 low/mid majors on the home slate anyway. If a conference schedule is going to include teams like Memphis, Temple, Tulane and Tulsa, UConn needs every OOC home game to draw 35k+. That narrows the OOC to P5 opponents, top mid-majors like Boise and BYU, or a local school like UMass or Army. Nothing else works financially. Fewer home games restricts supply, which should better maximize utilization. UConn can't play December home games against schools like Memphis any more. UConn may have been better financially if it didn't play that game last year. If UConn is going play home games in December, it has to be against Cincinnati or UCF or ECU. Few fans at any school would turn out in 25 degree weather to watch a game against Memphis.

Strategic

I have already laid out why I think there are lots of incentives for the ACC and Big 10 to wait it out when it comes to UConn. From a competitive strategy standpoint, the only reason NOT to wait it out is if one side or the other starts to lose badly in the NYC metro market. If Rutgers presence on the BTN and playing ESPN games starts to drive major viewership for the Big 10 in NYC and Syracuse is getting crushed, the ACC could move to add UConn sooner than later. If there is a stalemate, or both conferences are successful in New York, there is less incentive to add UConn. The best realistic hope is that Syracuse completely gets its butt kicked in the New York DMA. The ACC does not want to whiff in one of its key markets when it is making the argument to ESPN that it deserves its own network.

This is all linked. UConn has to look and act like a P5 program for the next 10 years if necessary, and then needs some strategic breaks,

 

[itgoeslike]

Holy crap, you should be writing for Jimmy Fallon. Your talent is being wasted on these boards.. I started laughing when I read this:

ND does NOT value money most and so keeps refusing the BeeOneGee.

Which was followed by this one liner:

If Swofford has the slightest doubt about UConn's value system. . .he will not make an offer.

And you closed brilliantly with this one:

Delaney has no incentive to offer UConn because Rutgers gives him all he requires in NYC.

Good stuff.

 

[noeynox]

It's not that people go bat sheet crazy over you saying the big east, it's that you fail to acknowledge that the financial gain is just not there from that move when you factor in the exit fees. By the time those dry up, the AAC should be renegotiating. The exit fees are not forever, but The Big East is also going to have to pull much better ratings in the future to get that type of TV deal again. The MAC just told UMass to kick rocks as football only. An additional three million 2.5, million in TV money is just not worth the headaches on the football side. Big East is not P5, material any more than the AAC is.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It's not that people go bat sheet crazy over you saying the big east, it's that you fail to acknowledge that the financial gain is just not there from that move when you factor in the exit fees. By the time those dry up, the AAC should be renegotiating. The exit fees are not forever, but The Big East is also going to have to pull much better ratings in the future to get that type of TV deal again. The MAC just told UMass to kick rocks as football only. An additional three million 2.5, million in TV money is just not worth the headaches on the football side. Big East is not P5, material any more than the AAC is.

If you have another source of revenue, let's hear it.

The "look in" is a completely separate strategic problem. The AAC has to do something to force ESPN's hand on the look in or it will be lucky to not go backwards on the contract. 1 or more key schools credibly threatening to walk to another network (like Fox, or example) could do the trick, just like Texas threatening to blow up the Big 12 caused Fox and ESPN to back up the truck. Or the league could do nothing and hope ESPN is feeling generous. My money is on "do nothing".

 

[noeynox]

I have told you multiple times, if Fox values UConn BBall as much as you imagine, they have to influence their FB properties to schedule FB games against our FB team. If you have info that says that can be done "let's hear it". If you hadn't already proposed that we disband the FB program, I would think that was your angle on the whole Big East thing. There has to be a soft landing for FB. Fox can make it happen, the question is would they do it. If you can find that the answer to that question is yes, then feel free to lambast the administration all you want, otherwise you're pizzing into the wind.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I assume you are arguing with me. I am saying get more revenue. Are you arguing against that?

 

[RegisteredUconn]

I think many cannot grasp what you are saying because they have a most powerful desire to see UConn get a double bid and give the ACC the finger.

The BeeOneGee has always been the wealthiest conference - always, every single year of its existence. That means that any school it wants that values money most will go BeeOneGee.

ND does NOT value money most and so keeps refusing the BeeOneGee.

If Swofford has the slightest doubt about UConn's value system and long term preferences, he will not make an offer. Delaney has no incentive to offer UConn because Rutgers gives him all he requires in NYC: a way to demand the highest payment for the BTN from NYC cable.

Either take off the dunce cap or go sit in the corner.

 

[RedStickHusky]

A few things should be cleared up.

Conference realignment is NOT about football. It is about eyeballs. ... As it relates to eyeballs, UConn needs to stay at the top of the heap in both basketballs, and become better in football.

Thanks for clearing that up.

 

[noeynox]

I assume you are arguing with me. I am saying get more revenue. Are you arguing against that?

Nelson, of course we'd love more revenue. Your proposing creating a nightmare situation for football for an incremental amount of revenue that is not going to prevent the athletic dept., from dying on the vine, as you suggest will happen in the AAC. If were getting 2 million in the AAC vs 4.12, million in the Big East that really isn't much of a difference when the people you are trying to compete against are roughly in the 20 million dollar range. Going to the Big East now will likely result in less revenue right away anyway because you would be forgoing your exit fees plus paying your own.

In short you are in favor of less revenue for the immediate future. Dont know how that helps.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Nelson, of course we'd love more revenue. Your proposing creating a nightmare situation for football for an incremental amount of revenue that is not going to prevent the athletic dept., from dying on the vine, as you suggest will happen in the AAC. If were getting 2 million in the AAC vs 4.12, million in the Big East that really isn't much of a difference when the people you are trying to compete against are roughly in the 20 million dollar range. Going to the Big East now will likely result in less revenue right away anyway because you would be forgoing your exit fees plus paying your own.

In short you are in favor of less revenue for the immediate future. Dont know how that helps.

Uconn may have missed its window for the Big East anyway, but there are other threads to argue the Big East. If you don't like my idea, come up with one of your own, but UConn needs more revenue or it is probably never joining a P5. That is the reality.

 

[djct1999]

A couple of observations.

The B1G Tier 1 and partial Tier 2 Rights go on the open market for bid in 2016.

Part of this package includes basketball rights currently held by both ESPN and CBS, including the B1G Tournament Semis and Championship Games. I wonder if they would be worth more with a National Title Contending Team situated in the shadows of the media capital of the world? Hey Jim, do you want to host a tourney in MSG or Barclays? You know what you have to do.

August appears to be a very important month for revelations regarding the new P5 Conference Structure. More information regarding the new unbalanced conference structure proposal will definitely be discussed.
......
Keep the faith Husky Fans. I believe there is a plan in place, but logistics necessitate things are kept quiet for a while longer.

Agree 100%. I would take it one step further and say that I believe this plan was in place before the ACC "picked" Louisville.

 

[Fairfield_1st]

I got a kick out of this from a Louisville fan:
B1G grabs Kansas and UConn, ACC counters deeper into B1G country grabs Cincinnati and WVU and gives ND even more Bowl access...

That would be wonderful for me on 2 levels. First and foremost, UCONN to the B1G. Second would be watching the hatred grow in the ACC towards ND if more football concessions are made to a school that doesn't play football in that conference. It would be Christmas come early.

 

[Sea Goat]

That would be wonderful for me on 2 levels. First and foremost, UCONN to the B1G. Second would be watching the hatred grow in the ACC towards ND if more football concessions are made to a school that doesn't play football in that conference. It would be Christmas come early.

And it will... ND's half in-half out deal will wear thin on the stalwarts of the ACC. When the BE accepted ND on ND's terms, it really didn't matter because the BE had only half its members playing FB to begin with. Now, with an "all in" conference except ND; it will get old soon. The reigning National Champion, FSU, has to pay homage to ND and witness it getting a special deal? Are you kidding me? ND hasn't won a title in 26 years - 1988. Since then, FSU has won 6 and Miami has won 5. It will get old when the ACC wakes up and figures out that there is "paper" leprechaun in the room.