Rumor from the .

[Ha Who]

You realize (I hope) that you can't do this, because you only control your non-conference schedule?

Even more important than w/l is capacity crowds. Perception is everything. If there is 100 pct capacity, people will wonder how the university is not in a p 5 conference. This is where WM and SH NEED TO STEP UP. find a way to get rid of unsold tickets. Donate them to youth groups. But 1 get one deals. Etc. I know season ticket holders will not like it, but now is the time to get rid of 40000 tickets every game

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It's amazing how easily you will accuse people of being willing to commit what would be flat out crimes. Not to mention the fact that killing UConn basketball does not just create a vacuum in metro NY -- it hurts the market by wronging a team that has become as popular in that market as any other and has clearly deserved a better fate. Not everything is a zero sum game.

It is amazing how easily you will naively believe that the Big 10 or ACC will "do the right thing" and offer us a membership that will be worth hundreds of millions of dollars over the next 10 years, when they could just agree to not offer us, let us fade away, and potentially grab our market share in New York without having to spend a dime.

Much worse collusion has occurred for much less money, and none of it has anything to do with what anyone "deserves".

 

[Fairfield_1st]

It is amazing how easily you will naively believe that the Big 10 or ACC will "do the right thing" and offer us a membership that will be worth hundreds of millions of dollars over the next 10 years, when they could just agree to not offer us, let us fade away....

Since it's a board we can imagine any scenario we want, but I find it hard to imagine that the ACC and B1G would agree on anything, especially something that wreaks of collusion and potentially large payout if caught and convicted.
I also agree with someone else that you don't just grab UConn's share because they drop down to mid major or less. I don't think you can annex fans like that.

 

[HuskyJ]

and offer us a membership that will be worth hundreds of millions of dollars over the next 10 years, when they could just agree to not offer us, let us fade away, and potentially grab our market share in New York without having to spend a dime.

For the BIG and ACC to even consider colluding against UCONN, wouldn’t they both have to FIRST decide that UConn owns a large piece of New York. Having concluded that why in the world would they then risk losing that valuable property to the coconspirator if either side backed out of the deal. If UConn does have that Value (which we all think it does) the cost isn’t to the conferences but to the Media partners. If UConn doesn’t have that value then there is no need to collude at all.

 

[FAIRTIDES]

Since it's a board we can imagine any scenario we want, but I find it hard to imagine that the ACC and B1G would agree on anything, especially something that wreaks of collusion and potentially large payout if caught and convicted.
I also agree with someone else that you don't just grab UConn's share because they drop down to mid major or less. I don't think you can annex fans like that.

My "scenario:"

I may be a minority of one, but I believe UCONN’s CR dye has been cast for some time. I now believe that SH, WM and, probably, BD know exactly where UCONN is going. I don’t think BD takes the job if there’s a chance that circumstances he can’t control put him in position to fail. Nor, do I think he brings friends to participate in a suicide mission. Nor, do I think they’d come.

Take things a step further. Two Sundays ago there was a captured audience estimated at 200,000 in Hartford. A significant portion of the crowd had to be voting age adults. Yet, not one State or National Politician took the opportunity to comment on UCONN’s present situation. Not one, “look what bad people have done/are doing to our State, Flagship University and Athletic Department,” or “this is what I would have done .....,” or “this is what I will do...” Argue that the event was closely scheduled or scripted or that the forum might have been inappropriate. I don’t buy it. To a politician, it is red meat to a lion; especially when the only way to make that particular crowd unhappy is to suggest that the school drop sports, altogether. Yet, not one pushy Politician tried to elbow into the proceedings. This follows a long period of political and UCONN Administration silence on the subject of CR. There has to be a “muzzle edict.”

Fanciful as my feelings may seem, they allow me to ignore rumors. In the last week we’ve been told that Cincy is next in line followed by UCONN and Memphis. Now UCONN’s BB championships have created a curious tipping point that is threatening to the point of making ESPN recommend UCONN to the BIG. Talk about extremes? Ride that roller coaster if you like. I believe that it is has been decided.

 

[Fairfield_1st]

My "scenario:" .....

Yours is believeable to me. My only question would be why are they sitting on it so long? Are they waiting for that legislation to pass to allow uneven groupings of teams in a conference?

 

[caw]

It is amazing how easily you will naively believe that the Big 10 or ACC will "do the right thing" and offer us a membership that will be worth hundreds of millions of dollars over the next 10 years, when they could just agree to not offer us, let us fade away, and potentially grab our market share in New York without having to spend a dime.

Much worse collusion has occurred for much less money, and none of it has anything to do with what anyone "deserves".

First hundreds of millions may be slightly overstating things.

Second, I'm curious how you come to either league grabbing UConns market share in the case of UConn "dying"? I will give you the fact Rutgers brings a good number of eyeballs for football. I will even give you that other b1g alumni bases in NYC will watch the Rutgers games but I'm not sure how UConn dying changes that equation for those outside those fanbases. Let's call them the random fan. UConn right now pulls UConn fans and whoever they are playing in football. That's it. Will a bunch of UConn fans suddenly start watching B1G or ACC teams in NYC bc UConn is "dead"? I don't think so. So for college football, neither the ACC not B1G is stealing the UConns share of the pie (and it's not a huge share for football).

Now as for basketball, this is where some of the random fan could be won if UConn were "dead." There is one huge flaw for the B1G in this scenario: no team in the B1G has a strong NYC basketball presence. If anything UConn dying just gives NYC to the ACC in a gift basket for basketball. Rutgers basketball is a joke and being in the B1G (even with UConn "dead") won't change that. They aren't a brand and don't project as one in basketball.

For basketball, the ACC may be able to generate huge numbers of eyeballs in the NY area bc of Cuse but the B1G won't and can't without UConn. Rutgers versus Michigan won't be a draw for eyeballs in basketball, UConn/Michigan that's another story. Football unfortunately (and the main reason UConn is in this mess) doesn't change a lot either way.

I can see why the ACC sees UConn as duplicative but the B1G won't prosper bc UConn is dead and could actually have something to gain by adding UConn.

 

[Seaa Blue]

I may be a minority of one, but I believe UCONN’s CR dye has been cast for some time. I now believe that SH, WM and, probably, BD know exactly where UCONN is going.

Yeah, I put SH's mention of Ohio State and Michigan under a microscope and tried to figure if she would go there if there was an NDA in place with the Big Ten.

"This is our front porch in a sports-minded country," UConn President Susan Herbst said Thursday. "As an academic, worrying about the research mission and development of UConn, you cannot buy the kind of media we get through athletics. It's true for Michigan. It is true for Ohio State. It is true for all the great places. They would not trade [athletic accomplishment] for anything."
​

I think the answer is 'yes', she would, given that she is so familiar with the Big Ten, and it reveals nothing.

Conversely, would she have gone there if the ACC is your eventual home? I don't think so.

 

[Afroabe224]

My "scenario:"

I may be a minority of one, but I believe UCONN’s CR dye has been cast for some time. I now believe that SH, WM and, probably, BD know exactly where UCONN is going. I don’t think BD takes the job if there’s a chance that circumstances he can’t control put him in position to fail. Nor, do I think he brings friends to participate in a suicide mission. Nor, do I think they’d come.

Take things a step further. Two Sundays ago there was a captured audience estimated at 200,000 in Hartford. A significant portion of the crowd had to be voting age adults. Yet, not one State or National Politician took the opportunity to comment on UCONN’s present situation. Not one, “look what bad people have done/are doing to our State, Flagship University and Athletic Department,” or “this is what I would have done .....,” or “this is what I will do...” Argue that the event was closely scheduled or scripted or that the forum might have been inappropriate. I don’t buy it. To a politician, it is red meat to a lion; especially when the only way to make that particular crowd unhappy is to suggest that the school drop sports, altogether. Yet, not one pushy Politician tried to elbow into the proceedings. This follows a long period of political and UCONN Administration silence on the subject of CR. There has to be a “muzzle edict.”

Fanciful as my feelings may seem, they allow me to ignore rumors. In the last week we’ve been told that Cincy is next in line followed by UCONN and Memphis. Now UCONN’s BB championships have created a curious tipping point that is threatening to the point of making ESPN recommend UCONN to the BIG. Talk about extremes? Ride that roller coaster if you like. I believe that it is has been decided.

I like where your head is at. I think a lot of the moves in the past year or so could point to WM and SH knowing something that we don't. Why commit to football staff salaries if revenue is going to decrease over the next 5/10 years in the AAC. Same with the commitment to hockey. Increasing the yearly expenses by millions with a projected revenue decline would be irresponsible over the long term. This to me means they may have something B1G up their sleeve.

Also as far as timing, I think I read in the Maryland/ACC deal once you announce you are leaving you lose rights to certain conference money? So I'm thinking if UConn did have a move in the works, keeping it mum for as long as possible could be a financial benefit.

 

[upstater]

Any UConn fan that is casting aspersions towards the ACC is an idiot. Yes, they've spurned us, yes, they destroyed the Big East. But guess what, folks? They have 1 of 5 life rafts that could potentially be thrown to us to save us from drowing in the AAC. And considering 2 of the 5 are complete non-starters (PAC/SEC), and another highly unlikely (Big 12), you can guarantee that the UCONN administration is not snubbing its nose toward the ACC. You don't bite the hand that (may potentially) feed.

I cringe at a lot of the comments here re: not wanting to join the ACC. At this point, we should be so lucky....

I wouldn't want to join that group of never-accomplished-anythings if my life depended on it. Let them drown in their vinegar-based sauces.

 

[The Viking]

If I was Delaney, I would just call Swofford and say "if you don't, I won't" when it comes to inviting UConn..

If you think Delany and Swofford trust each other to make such a deal than I'd say your batsh1t crazy.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

First hundreds of millions may be slightly overstating things.

Second, I'm curious how you come to either league grabbing UConns market share in the case of UConn "dying"? I will give you the fact Rutgers brings a good number of eyeballs for football. I will even give you that other b1g alumni bases in NYC will watch the Rutgers games but I'm not sure how UConn dying changes that equation for those outside those fanbases. Let's call them the random fan. UConn right now pulls UConn fans and whoever they are playing in football. That's it. Will a bunch of UConn fans suddenly start watching B1G or ACC teams in NYC bc UConn is "dead"? I don't think so. So for college football, neither the ACC not B1G is stealing the UConns share of the pie (and it's not a huge share for football).

Now as for basketball, this is where some of the random fan could be won if UConn were "dead." There is one huge flaw for the B1G in this scenario: no team in the B1G has a strong NYC basketball presence. If anything UConn dying just gives NYC to the ACC in a gift basket for basketball. Rutgers basketball is a joke and being in the B1G (even with UConn "dead") won't change that. They aren't a brand and don't project as one in basketball.

For basketball, the ACC may be able to generate huge numbers of eyeballs in the NY area bc of Cuse but the B1G won't and can't without UConn. Rutgers versus Michigan won't be a draw for eyeballs in basketball, UConn/Michigan that's another story. Football unfortunately (and the main reason UConn is in this mess) doesn't change a lot either way.

I can see why the ACC sees UConn as duplicative but the B1G won't prosper bc UConn is dead and could actually have something to gain by adding UConn.

If the Big 10 contract is worth $25MM/year/school, over 10 years that is $250MM. The ACC is about 20% less, but that is still hundreds of millions. That is the nut UConn has to bring with them to justify UConn's addition.

It is stating the obvious to say that any interest in UConn in NYC may fade if UConn can not continue to be successful. If the ACC or Big 10 believe that UConn's success is in doubt in the AAC, why not just wait out UConn for a few years and see if the interest fades? Then they can scoop up the residual college basketball interest between them. I agree that Syracuse and the Big East would be best positioned for hoops, but a greater profile in NYC from Rutgers could increase interest in Big 10 schools, many of whom have large alumni presence in NYC.

I understand the reasons why the Big 10 might add UConn at some point. Those are not reasons why the Big 10 WILL add UConn. The Big 10 is clearly waiting for something from UConn, otherwise they would have added the Huskies already.

 

[businesslawyer]

It is amazing how easily you will naively believe that the Big 10 or ACC will "do the right thing" and offer us a membership that will be worth hundreds of millions of dollars over the next 10 years, when they could just agree to not offer us, let us fade away, and potentially grab our market share in New York without having to spend a dime.

Much worse collusion has occurred for much less money, and none of it has anything to do with what anyone "deserves".

You can't compare these to for-profit businesses. In business, when you violate antitrust laws you do it to make money and take that risk. These are non-profits. The thought that University Presidents are going to risk their futures on per se violations to carve the college sports market up 65 ways, instead of 68 ways, when they don't get to keep the money is absurd.

 

[upstater]

I got a kick out of this from a Louisville fan:

B1G grabs Kansas and UConn, ACC counters deeper into B1G country grabs Cincinnati and WVU and gives ND even more Bowl access and Benefits to permanently lock Them into ACC so when in the distant future They will be the point school or Flagship program. The Stars are aligning.

Sounds like a very Swoffordish "counter" move. The goal seems to be to forget about the population centers. Instead, grab Central NY, Pitt, a little section of Coolidge Corner, Louisville, and now Cincy. Leave the states of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Connecticut, Maryland and half of DC to the B1G!

 

[uconndogs]

You can't compare these to for-profit businesses. In business, when you violate antitrust laws you do it to make money and take that risk. These are non-profits. The thought that University Presidents are going to risk their futures on per se violations to carve the college sports market up 65 ways, instead of 68 ways, when they don't get to keep the money is absurd.

Isn't that exactly what they have let go on to this point?

 

[businesslawyer]

Isn't that exactly what they have let go on to this point?

No. When called on it, Muntz jumped from the Commissioners of the Big Ten and ACC should work together to exclude UConn from the part to well, no one has asked UConn to join the party yet. But from an antitrust perspective, this are two entirely different things.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

If you think Delany and Swofford trust each other to make such a deal than I'd say your batsh1t crazy.

They don't need to trust each other. Swofford just has to know that Delaney can match any offer Swofford would make. If Swofford offered UConn, what would Herbst logically do? Call Delaney before her printer was done printing the offer letter. If Swofford knows that, and knows he can't beat Delaney head to head, then what is Swofford's incentive to offer UConn? Likewise, if Delaney knows Swofford is not going to offer UConn, then why should he rush to do anything? Why not wait, and see how the Rutgers acquisition does and whether it opens up NYC to other Big 10 teams? It's not like Swofford can take us.

A prisoners' dilemma is stable if one of the two parties is much more powerful than the other, because then there is no incentive for the secondary player (in this case the ACC) to break the alliance.

There is every incentive, on the other hand, for both parties to wait. Since each others' moves are visible to the market (if I knew almost a week beforehand that Rutgers was getting invited to the Big 10, how far in advance did Swofford know?) any attempt to grab UConn would trigger a win by the Big 10.

The only way I see one side or the other adding UConn is if one conference starts to emerge clearly victorious in NYC over the next few years, with the loser willing to make an addition.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You can't compare these to for-profit businesses. In business, when you violate antitrust laws you do it to make money and take that risk. These are non-profits. The thought that University Presidents are going to risk their futures on per se violations to carve the college sports market up 65 ways, instead of 68 ways, when they don't get to keep the money is absurd.

What do you mean I can't compare them to for profit businesses? The P5's very existence as a separate negotiating unit with the NCAA is a much bigger anti-trust violation than what I am proposing.

Edit: Just to add to this thought. The P5 are setting up a separate set of rules for themselves, and have negotiated as a cartel to exclude everyone else from the lion's share of postseason revenue. The P5 haven't just set up the system in a way that they will likely end up with the revenue, like the NCAA is set up. The P5 has actually made it contractual that they end up with the revenue which is several hundred million PER YEAR, and they are doing this all right out in the open.

And you are arguing that the ACC and the Big 10 wouldn't collude not to add UConn because it was unethical or they were worried about getting sued? Really?

 

[ZooCougar]

I understand the reasons why the Big 10 might add UConn at some point. Those are not reasons why the Big 10 WILL add UConn. The Big 10 is clearly waiting to see how east coast expansion works out, otherwise they would have added the Huskies already.

fify

 

[jostar1]

If Swofford offered UConn, what would Herbst logically do? Call Delaney before her printer was done printing the offer letter.

Really? Aren't there confidentiality agreements?

 

[sdhusky]

A prisoners' dilemma is stable if one of the two parties is much more powerful than the other, because then there is no incentive for the secondary player

Kinda like the sane voice in your head being drown out by the crazy voice.

 

[RedStickHusky]

I see what you're saying and I'd offer a third group that would have cause to collude against UCONN: ESPN. They own our rights for $2M/yr (thanks Aresco!). Why on Earth would ESPN advocate on UCONN's behalf, like they did for Pitt after BC led the anti-UCONN charge, when that would mean that they would have to pay 10x what they pay to air UCONN content?

I've seen this argument a few times and it doesn't make sense to me. The AAC $2mil is not for UConn, it's for the slate of UConn-Mem, UConn-Tulane, UConn-SMU, etc.. In basketball alone, a slate of UConn vs. UNC, Syr, Duke, etc. or vs. MSU, Mich, OSU, Ind, etc.... is going to be more valuable. We obviously make either a better basketball conference. I guess the question is can we move the needle for either conference in football, but it's not whether ESPN wants to pay more for what it's already getting - they'd be getting something better.

 

[Doggie Style]

Swofford's under a lot of pressure and sweating it. Lately he looks in the mirror and he is seeing John Maranato looking back at him, I mean can history repeat itself? If Miami and FSU ever left the ACC (and there have been rumors), he's left with a basketball league and Notre Dame only in some sports, and Virginia Tech bolts to the Big 12. He's left with an ACC championship game with ratings in the toilet, and ESPN wants his head.

Serious question..... Who the hell would want Miami? For ANYTHING!!?? This is not 1991!!!! That University has taken a dive into the Abyss and never looked back!!!

 

[Doggie Style]

I'll bet the B1G already knows its position on future expansion.

There's no doubt they do! I just wish they would "leak" their position so that I can either lay back and "enjoy the ride", or just crack open a bottle of "Goose"!!

 

[Dooley]

I've seen this argument a few times and it doesn't make sense to me. The AAC $2mil is not for UConn, it's for the slate of UConn-Mem, UConn-Tulane, UConn-SMU, etc.. In basketball alone, a slate of UConn vs. UNC, Syr, Duke, etc. or vs. MSU, Mich, OSU, Ind, etc.... is going to be more valuable. We obviously make either a better basketball conference. I guess the question is can we move the needle for either conference in football, but it's not whether ESPN wants to pay more for what it's already getting - they'd be getting something better.

Oh I agree with you. I was just putting on my collusion conspiracy cap for a second. If anyone has any incentive to continue to shun UCONN out, it would be ESPN.