Florida State Drama

[HuskyHawk]

Report: SEC, Big Ten Don't Have 'Much Desire' to Add FSU, Clemson, Other ACC Schools

The rampant NCAA conference realignment finally appears to be slowing down. According to CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd, the Big Ten and SEC are not looking to add…

bleacherreport.com

I've been saying this for months. They aren't going anywhere. ACC passes Big XII in revenue per year paid out in 2026. It keeps widening that gap every year. By the time Big XII GOR is up it can absolutely poach Big XII teams.

 

[JeepCSC]

Whomever at FSU, Clemson, UNC, and Miami signed away their media rights on the promise of The ACC Network should be fired into the Sun. ESPN absolutely fleeced the high value schools of The ACC on that deal. I can't imagine having to watch Rutgers and Mississippi State cash fat checks, while having to carry dead weight programs like BC, Cuse, and WF like a millstone around my neck.

Rutgers and Mississippi State make what they do because Alabama and Ohio State are worth so much, much more than the ACC heavyweights. If Clemson and FSU could have gotten into the B10 or the SEC last decade they would have. They honestly tried their best. Only the Big XII offered however and that conference was obviously a house of cards. The ACC deal was the best option to either of them at the time.

The fatal flaw of the ACC was the football powers disappearing after FSU strong armed the conference into the initial BE raid. If the football schools had played the next decade as they had the previous decade, we likely would have been in a better position when signing the followup media contract.

 

[UConnJim]

I've been saying this for months. They aren't going anywhere. ACC passes Big XII in revenue per year paid out in 2026. It keeps widening that gap every year. By the time Big XII GOR is up it can absolutely poach Big XII teams.

The ACC revenues going forward are more variable than you think:

1) The ACC has benefitted from the uptake of the ACC Network, but they are at peak subscribers right now and subscribers will begin to decline as cord cutting continues, similar to ESPN. Is ACCN at peak revenue right now? (ACCN is ~12% of media revenues.)

2) NCAA basketball tournament credits. (Not a big delta, but Big 12 is earning more per team right now.)

3) Football playoff revenue distributions. Payout is changing. Last 3 playoff berths from future conference members: Big 12 two, ACC one.

As for picking off Big 12 schools, the timing wouldn't be ideal for the ACC as the Big 12 media contract is up 5 years before the ACC. If the market for college sports is good, the Big 12 will get a raise above the ACC. If the market isn't good, I don't think ESPN will let the ACC add schools. And, there are no Big 12 schools that will go to the P2, but a group of ACC may. Thus, the Big 12 will be more stable than the ACC.

 

[upstater]

The ACC revenues going forward are more variable than you think:

1) The ACC has benefitted from the uptake of the ACC Network, but they are at peak subscribers right now and subscribers will begin to decline as cord cutting continues, similar to ESPN. Is ACCN at peak revenue right now? (ACCN is ~12% of media revenues.)

2) NCAA basketball tournament credits. (Not a big delta, but Big 12 is earning more per team right now.)

3) Football playoff revenue distributions. Payout is changing. Last 3 playoff berths from future conference members: Big 12 two, ACC one.

As for picking off Big 12 schools, the timing wouldn't be ideal for the ACC as the Big 12 media contract is up 5 years before the ACC. If the market for college sports is good, the Big 12 will get a raise above the ACC. If the market isn't good, I don't think ESPN will let the ACC add schools. And, there are no Big 12 schools that will go to the P2, but a group of ACC may. Thus, the Big 12 will be more stable than the ACC.

ON #3, I'd put my money on Clemson and Florida St rather than TCU getting there.

 

[UConnJim]

ON #3, I'd put my money on Clemson and Florida St rather than TCU getting there.

With the expanded playoffs, more teams will be making the playoffs. Over the past 5 to 10 years, the new Big 12 has more teams that might have made the CFP as it will be set up in the future: Utah, TCU, Cincinnati, Baylor, UCF, Houston, Oklahoma State, Iowa State.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The ACC revenues going forward are more variable than you think:

1) The ACC has benefitted from the uptake of the ACC Network, but they are at peak subscribers right now and subscribers will begin to decline as cord cutting continues, similar to ESPN. Is ACCN at peak revenue right now? (ACCN is ~12% of media revenues.)

2) NCAA basketball tournament credits. (Not a big delta, but Big 12 is earning more per team right now.)

3) Football playoff revenue distributions. Payout is changing. Last 3 playoff berths from future conference members: Big 12 two, ACC one.

As for picking off Big 12 schools, the timing wouldn't be ideal for the ACC as the Big 12 media contract is up 5 years before the ACC. If the market for college sports is good, the Big 12 will get a raise above the ACC. If the market isn't good, I don't think ESPN will let the ACC add schools. And, there are no Big 12 schools that will go to the P2, but a group of ACC may. Thus, the Big 12 will be more stable than the ACC.

I’m talking the media deal. It’s fixed, not variable, but escalates every year. It passes Big XII soon and keeps going up. My guess is Big XII was overvalued last round and will not get a bump. ACC has better properties and markets. As for the playoffs, FSU and Clemson are better than anyone in the Big XII which doesn’t have any consistent playoff contender.

No ACC team would consider the Big XII, but WVU, Cinci and UCF would jump to the ACC. You all keep acting like it will be picked apart. It won’t lose a single school. Its next TV deal will make it the clear #3 conference.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[Buffett10]

Yes...but football measures differently.

UConn is a basketball power...but the AAC was killing it.

Football is a different matter...

The AAC wasn’t killing basketball it was the coach more focused on his espn anchor fling than actually doing his job

 

[UConnJim]

I’m talking the media deal. It’s fixed, not variable, but escalates every year. It passes Big XII soon and keeps going up. My guess is Big XII was overvalued last round and will not get a bump. ACC has better properties and markets. As for the playoffs, FSU and Clemson are better than anyone in the Big XII which doesn’t have any consistent playoff contender.

No ACC team would consider the Big XII, but WVU, Cinci and UCF would jump to the ACC. You all keep acting like it will be picked apart. It won’t lose a single school. Its next TV deal will make it the clear #3 conference.

I would consider the ACCN as part of the ACC's media revenues. If one conference makes more money than another, does it matter where it is coming from? All of the estimates for future ACC revenues assume the ACCN revenues will grow not shrink.

As for the future, the conferences could go either way and it is really outside of the ACC's control. If the Big 10 and/or SEC expands again, it will be with schools from the ACC (Stanford may be the exception). If the top schools leave the ACC, the Big 12 will have their pick of the remaining ACC schools.

 

[huskymedic]

 

[CL82]

The AAC wasn’t killing basketball it was the coach more focused on his espn anchor fling than actually doing his job

 

[Vowelguy]

Report: SEC, Big Ten Don't Have 'Much Desire' to Add FSU, Clemson, Other ACC Schools

The rampant NCAA conference realignment finally appears to be slowing down. According to CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd, the Big Ten and SEC are not looking to add…

bleacherreport.com

The lawyers can weigh in, but I assume this is just legalese -- the BiG and SEC cant be saying anything publicly hat encourages a school to break its contract with the ACC.

 

[Waquoit]

The AAC wasn’t killing basketball it was the coach more focused on his espn anchor fling than actually doing his job

Nope.

 

[HuskyHawk]

The lawyers can weigh in, but I assume this is just legalese -- the BiG and SEC cant be saying anything publicly hat encourages a school to break its contract with the ACC.

Or, they realize that FSU is to college sports what James Harden is to the NBA and don't want to touch that.

 

[Rufus]

I think it's legalese too. It might not be right now, but sometime prior to the end of the ACC GOR it will be announced that FSU, Clemson, Miami, and UNC are joining either the B1G or SEC. A couple other schools have a chance of getting in maybe. The Big 12 will then feed on whatever is left of the ACC carcass as they did with the PAC 12.