Florida State Drama

[Rufus]

Lots of talking heads think FSU is going to leave the ACC, consequences be damned. Here is an interesting article on FSU's predicament:

Moment of Reckoning: How decades of mismanagement has Florida State on the outside looking in of conference realignment

How did one of college sports biggest brands become trapped in a conference that was once an ideal match?

www.tomahawknation.com

 

[JeepCSC]

So boosters overplaying their hand and academic scandal destroying Bowden’s legacy (and left unsaid FSU football sucking any oxygen out of the negotiating position of the ACC)? Sounds about right.

 

[CL82]

So boosters overplaying their hand and academic scandal destroying Bowden’s legacy (and left unsaid FSU football sucking any oxygen out of the negotiating position of the ACC)? Sounds about right.

 

[Vowelguy]

It’d be interesting to see the cost estimate of exiting the ACC GOR 12 years early. It would seem like hundreds of millions of dollars, which I don’t see anyone going for.

 

[CL82]

It’d be interesting to see the cost estimate of exiting the ACC GOR 12 years early. It would seem like hundreds of millions of dollars, which I don’t see anyone going for.

I feel like it would be, arguably, something close to $1 billion. Is FSU that delusional?

 

[ZooCougar]

Where are they going to go?

 

[Forte]

Lots of talking heads think FSU is going to leave the ACC, consequences be damned. Here is an interesting article on FSU's predicament:

Moment of Reckoning: How decades of mismanagement has Florida State on the outside looking in of conference realignment

How did one of college sports biggest brands become trapped in a conference that was once an ideal match?

www.tomahawknation.com

If FSU leaves could they still block ACC acquiring Stanford, Cal and SMU?

 

[huskymedic]

It’d be interesting to see the cost estimate of exiting the ACC GOR 12 years early. It would seem like hundreds of millions of dollars, which I don’t see anyone going for.

Spitballing from the State of the U:

"Even if the ACC can’t force a departing Miami to not air its football games, Miami will still owe the estimated $120 million exit fee plus some sort of damages for breaking the media rights deal. That could reasonably be Miami’s expected revenue share had it stayed, or about $30 million annually. My handy-dandy calculator informs me that’s a $390 million dollar penalty for exiting 13 years early. All together, the fair price tag to leave the ACC thirteen years early could be half a billion dollars. Yikes."

More mainstream thought from CBS Dennis Dodd:

"An ACC league source last year told CBS Sports, at that time, it might have cost as much as $500 million total to exit the league, including its grant of rights, as there were then 14 years left on the deal. Other estimates have been lower but still significant."

 

[Vowelguy]

Spitballing from the State of the U:

"Even if the ACC can’t force a departing Miami to not air its football games, Miami will still owe the estimated $120 million exit fee plus some sort of damages for breaking the media rights deal. That could reasonably be Miami’s expected revenue share had it stayed, or about $30 million annually. My handy-dandy calculator informs me that’s a $390 million dollar penalty for exiting 13 years early. All together, the fair price tag to leave the ACC thirteen years early could be half a billion dollars. Yikes."

More mainstream thought from CBS Dennis Dodd:

"An ACC league source last year told CBS Sports, at that time, it might have cost as much as $500 million total to exit the league, including its grant of rights, as there were then 14 years left on the deal. Other estimates have been lower but still significant."

Which confirms my thought: FSU just blowing smoke.

But they are putting the ACC on the clock: you have 5 years to fix this.

 

[gars44]

Their thought process is that they will have to pay $30MM / year to leave, but receive $60MM / year in revenue after they leave from a combo of $30MM from the B1G and another $30MM from other sources, like their own network, other tier rights, etc. So they feel they break even kind of.

 

[Pat125]

Which confirms my thought: FSU just blowing smoke.

But they are putting the ACC on the clock: you have 5 years to fix this.

Actually, Florida St. is not just blowing smoke. They are sticking it to the ACC until they can let them go for a much lower amount. Two-thirds of the ACC wanted Stanford and Cal, but Florida St. and a couple of other schools who also want to leave gave the ACC a big . I guess the GOR works both ways sometimes.

 

[ZooCougar]

Actually, Florida St. is not just blowing smoke. They are sticking it to the ACC until they can let them go for a much lower amount. Two-thirds of the ACC wanted Stanford and Cal, but Florida St. and a couple of other schools who also want to leave gave the ACC a big . I guess the GOR works both ways sometimes.

Not blowing smoke, but where are they going to go?

 

[billybud]

Actually...Stanford and Cal couldn't get a vote when ESPN didn't find them additive in terms of individual team payout.

 

[LoyalFanCT]

If FSU and Clemson and Miami leave, could SMU, Cal, Stanford and UConn all be asked to join the ACC

 

[billybud]

As the Ohio State AD stated...

"Fox brought new money to the table for Oregon and for Washington that they provided."

Smith isn’t saying anything we already didn’t know, as he revealed that money was the driving factor in Oregon and Washington joining the Big Ten. According to Eleven Warriors, Smith previously did not anticipate adding more teams this year, but that has since changed, as Washington and Oregon will make their way from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten, along with USC and UCLA in 2024.

 

[Vowelguy]

Actually, Florida St. is not just blowing smoke. They are sticking it to the ACC until they can let them go for a much lower amount. Two-thirds of the ACC wanted Stanford and Cal, but Florida St. and a couple of other schools who also want to leave gave the ACC a big . I guess the GOR works both ways sometimes.

They ARE blowing smoke in terms of leaving anytime soon.

Oh I absolutely believe they want out, but they’re stuck for at least 5 more years. Getting out sooner is unaffordable.

 

[billybud]

U get what the networks will pay for...

In doing so, Smith has essentially confirmed that Fox was the driving factor for this move and gave the green light. This previously wouldn’t have been something that the rest of the conference greenlit, as splitting more of the revenue with two more schools isn’t exactly an attractive option. And according to Smith’s latest comments, it was Fox that produced more money, approximately $30-35 million per year for each of those two schools to make their way from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten.

 

[Pat125]

Actually...Stanford and Cal couldn't get a vote when ESPN didn't find them additive in terms of individual team payout.

I thought that the addition of up to four P5 teams would at least be pro rata, and addition to ACCN subscriptions. Sounds like Florida St. wanted to stick it to the ACC to me.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Their thought process is that they will have to pay $30MM / year to leave, but receive $60MM / year in revenue after they leave from a combo of $30MM from the B1G and another $30MM from other sources, like their own network, other tier rights, etc. So they feel they break even kind of.

For openers they may not be able to get away with paying in installments for thirteen years. That is something that the involved parties would need to agree on and my guess is it would take a legal judgement to reach how that ends up being paid.

I'm not sure how they could provide the B1G with sufficient content to receive $30 million annually from that conference and still have $30 million annually in content that they could sell elsewhere.

I'm very confident that the B1G won't make any backroom promises (out of concern of litigation) to a school that is a member of another conference and bound by a long term GOR. Among other things they would need to publicly apply to the B1G for membership prior to departure from the ACC and then have that as ammunition the ACC can use against them in negotiating the GOR buyout.

This has been discussed countless times but to recap on the GOR, there is no prior example of how to fairly calculate a buyout. There are models for financial instruments that can provide guidelines on how to build a present value model of the remaining GOR but then it's anyone's guess as to how applicable it would be to a GOR. From there, the future cash flows could be valued at a premium or a discount (if standard financial modeling is being used, which may be applicable), nobody has any prior models to base that on when dealing with a GOR.

Whoever goes first will be setting a precedent but that may be similar to being in the front of a unit storming a castle. The guys a few rows behind you have a far greater chance of survival.

I imagine that a few schools are waiting, hoping someone else goes first as after they are done there will be something to calculate subsequent buyouts on. And from what we see, a buyout now could cost $300 million (separate from the departure fee) or it could cost $900 million (again, separate from the departure fee). It's a massive risk to take, especially as waiting to be second will at a minimum allow that school to make a reasonably accurate calculation of what leaving the ACC would cost them.

 

[billybud]

They ARE blowing smoke in terms of leaving anytime soon.

Oh I absolutely believe they want out, but they’re stuck for at least 5 more years. Getting out sooner is unaffordable.

I kind of agree...but FSU from the BOT, the President, the AD said what we all know....the creation of a P2 will create a premier league and FSU will try to do what it takes to stay competitive.

 

[Pat125]

Not blowing smoke, but where are they going to go?

Who knows? Maybe they will try the San Diego St. plan, which worked so well.

 

[billybud]

I thought that the addition of up to four P5 teams would at least be pro rata, and addition to ACCN subscriptions. Sounds like Florida St. wanted to stick it to the ACC to me.

You sound like someone who wants to dump on FSU...if there was money, there would be votes...

 

[billybud]

Programs that the B1G and Big 12 wouldn't take....Fox evidently paid up for programs they wanted...

 

[Pat125]

You sound like someone who wants to dump on FSU...if there was money, there would be votes...

Nah. In fact, I recall you dumping on Maryland every chance you got. Almost like some kind of entitlement that you are displaying now. Good for a laugh and all.

My point was that a supermajority of the ACC wants Stanford and Cal, additive or otherwise, and Florida St. basically said tough (unless the ACC presumably would agree to cut them loose). Fine by me. Frankly, if Florida St. wants out that bad, they should be able to strike a deal.

In any case, what is Florida St’s plan? What conference has said they will take them?

 

[billybud]

Listening to some Dylan...seems relevant...

Once upon a time you dressed so fine
Threw the bums a dime in your prime, didn't you?
People call say 'beware doll, you're bound to fall'
You thought they were all kidding you
You used to laugh about
Everybody that was hanging out
Now you don't talk so loud
Now you don't seem so proud
About having to be scrounging your next meal

How does it feel, how does it feel?
To be without a home
Like a complete unknown, like a rolling stone

Nah. In fact, I recall you dumping on Maryland every chance you got. Almost like some kind of entitlement that you are displaying now. Good for a laugh and all.

My point was that a supermajority of the ACC wants Stanford and Cal, additive or otherwise, and Florida St. basically said tough (unless the ACC presumably would agree to cut them loose). Fine by me. Frankly, if Florida St. wants out that bad, they should be able to strike a deal.

In any case, what is Florida St’s plan? What conference has said they will take them?

Making stuff up....link to supermajority of ACC wanting Stanford-Cal...

I didn't dump on Maryland...just said they were not competition (2-22 vs FSU), were in debt and cutting sports....Maryland did what they needed to do, and I hope that FSU does as well.