AAC Tournament Bracket

[DarthGrumpy]

Does any of this matter? If UConn wants to go to the Dance, UConn has to win the American for an automatic bid. No if and or buts. If UConn has to run through Tulsa, Temple then SMU or Memphis, Cincinnati, then SMU, does not matter. Win or go home.

 

[7774]

Does any of this matter? If UConn wants to go to the Dance, UConn has to win the American for an automatic bid. No if and or buts. If UConn has to run through Tulsa, Temple then SMU or Memphis, Cincinnati, then SMU, does not matter. Win or go home.

I think for most people it matters because they think SMU is easily our most difficult matchup, and would like SMU to have to most opportunities possible to lose before we would have to play them. If we're on the same side of the bracket they have 1 chance to lose before we would have to play them. If we're on the opposite side, they have 2 chances.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

Does any of this matter? If UConn wants to go to the Dance, UConn has to win the American for an automatic bid. No if and or buts. If UConn has to run through Tulsa, Temple then SMU or Memphis, Cincinnati, then SMU, does not matter. Win or go home.

I totally agree with this. I feel that the general consensus is that SMU is the best team in this league, and is most likely to win the tournament. If we are going to win this tournament, we will have to beat SMU in either the semi-finals or the championship game.

I still think that we could possibly get into the big dance as an at-large if the following scenario played out:

1) Win the last two regular season games (Memphis and @ Temple)
2) Win two games in the AAC tourney (Two games against one of these teams: Temple/Tulsa/Cincy)
3) Lose the AAC tourney final against SMU

If that happened, we'd finish the season at 21-12, with good wins against Dayton, Cincy (x2), Tulsa (x2), SMU and the only terrible loss @Houston. I know that the bubble is pretty soft this year, but I think that resume with a BPI in the top 40 might actually get us in. The easier scenario is just win out and get the auto-bid

 

[CallMeBruce]

I think for most people it matters because they think SMU is easily our most difficult matchup, and would like SMU to have to most opportunities possible to lose before we would have to play them. If we're on the same side of the bracket they have 1 chance to lose before we would have to play them. If we're on the opposite side, they have 2 chances.

Not to mention the fact that winning out until the AAC final puts us back on the bubble, so the later we go into the conference tournament, the better our chances of making it, even if we don't win.

 

[uconn_jack]

I totally agree with this. I feel that the general consensus is that SMU is the best team in this league, and is most likely to win the tournament. If we are going to win this tournament, we will have to beat SMU in either the semi-finals or the championship game.

I still think that we could possibly get into the big dance as an at-large if the following scenario played out:

1) Win the last two regular season games (Memphis and @ Temple)
2) Win two games in the AAC tourney (Two games against one of these teams: Temple/Tulsa/Cincy)
3) Lose the AAC tourney final against SMU

If that happened, we'd finish the season at 21-12, with good wins against Dayton, Cincy (x2), Tulsa (x2), SMU and the only terrible loss @Houston. I know that the bubble is pretty soft this year, but I think that resume with a BPI in the top 40 might actually get us in. The easier scenario is just win out and get the auto-bid

I agree, but I think if we win out, end up on SMU's side of the bracket, beat them in the semis, and lose in the finals to Temple/Tulsa/Cincy, we also have a good shot at an at large bid, probably better. I know the selection committee has no respect for the AAC (not that they are totally wrong), as evidenced by the SMU snub last year. But we aren't "SMU", we are UConn, the dominant team of the last decade and defending national champs with 4 championships total, and if we have a final RPI that can justify it, I would have to imagine our history and what will have to be a very strong close to the season will tip us on the right side of the bubble.

Then again, we are also UConn, the team that the NCAA loves to screw given the opportunity......

 

[tzznandrew]

I know the selection committee has no respect for the AAC (not that they are totally wrong), as evidenced by the SMU snub last year. But we aren't "SMU", we are UConn

SMU also finished their regular season with a loss to Houston. Had they won that, they would have likely lost to Louisville. But that loss would not have hurt.

I still think they should have made the NCAAs, but they gave the committee a reason to exclude them with that horrific loss.

 

[auror]

SMU was specifically left out because of their #302 non-conf SOS. We don't have the same worries about that. AAC teams were a seedline or two lower across the board than were prognosticated, though.

 

[1999.2004.2011]

SMU was specifically left out because of their #302 non-conf SOS. We don't have the same worries about that. AAC teams were a seedline or two lower across the board than were prognosticated, though.

UConn and Louisville were grossly under-seeded last season, which is something the committee will probably take into consideration with AAC teams this year

 

[DarthGrumpy]

I totally agree with this. I feel that the general consensus is that SMU is the best team in this league, and is most likely to win the tournament. If we are going to win this tournament, we will have to beat SMU in either the semi-finals or the championship game.

If that happened, we'd finish the season at 21-12, with good wins against Dayton, Cincy (x2), Tulsa (x2), SMU and the only terrible loss @Houston. I know that the bubble is pretty soft this year, but I think that resume with a BPI in the top 40 might actually get us in. The easier scenario is just win out and get the auto-bid

Even at 21-12, I do not like our chances because of the perceived strength of several of the mid-major conferences this year, like the new Big East and Missouri Valley. That puts more balls in play so to speak. Throw in the fact that UConn does not have a non-conference marquee win this year with just 1 major win over a sub .500 team in Florida and close neutral court losses to #3 Duke and #20 West Virginia. Those fair results are paired with losses to unranked Texas (home) and Stanford (away) plus the painful loss in Hartford to Yale. Without the American title, I believe UConn will be on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble last year just like SMU was last year.

 

[tzznandrew]

Well, winning is the name of the game. But, even if you take @johnhuskies95 scenario, I think we're in solid shape with a solid RPI, good schedule, and 21 wins.

If RPIWizard is accurate, if UConn wins out in the regular season and then beats Temple and SMU in the first two rounds of the AAC tournament, and loses to Cincinnati or Tulsa in the finals, the RPI would be 36 or 37.

That would be right on the bubble but UConn would have 5 top 50 wins.

 

[7774]

Even at 21-12, I do not like our chances because of the perceived strength of several of the mid-major conferences this year, like the new Big East and Missouri Valley. That puts more balls in play so to speak. Throw in the fact that UConn does not have a non-conference marquee win this year with just 1 major win over a sub .500 team in Florida and close neutral court losses to #3 Duke and #20 West Virginia. Those fair results are paired with losses to unranked Texas (home) and Stanford (away) plus the painful loss in Hartford to Yale. Without the American title, I believe UConn will be on the wrong side of the NCAA bubble last year just like SMU was last year.

Dayton is our best OOC win. They are 29th in the RPI right now.

 

[bcisco]

Looks like if we beat Memphis we are 4 or 5 seed depending on what happens Sat @Temple and if we lose to Memphis we need to beat Temple and have Memphis lose to Cincy to avoid the six seed

 

[UConnSwag11]

Jon Rothstein ‏@JonRothstein Feb 27

Three of the four teams that made last year's Final Four -- UConn, Kentucky, and Wisconsin -- all had 12-6 records in league play. #matchups

 

[UConnSwag11]

Here's the update after today's game:

View attachment 8639

Remaining games for the top 6:

SMU: Tulsa
Tulsa: Cincinnati, @ SMU
Cincinnati: @ Tulsa, Memphis
Temple: @ East Carolina, UConn
Memphis: @ UConn, @ Cincinnati
Connecticut: Memphis, @ Temple

@tcf15 is this how it will stay?

 

[StingLykOllie]

@tcf15 is this how it will stay?

Tulsa plays at SMU sunday, winner gets #1 seed.

The highest we can go is #4 seed if we beat Memphis and Temple. (I don't believe we can jump Cincy for the 3 even if we tie at 12-6 in conference)

 

[tcf15]

@tcf15 is this how it will stay?

This is the updated bracket after last night:

Remaining games for the top 6:

SMU: Tulsa
Tulsa: @ SMU
Cincinnati: Memphis
Temple: @ East Carolina, UConn
Memphis: @ UConn, @ Cincinnati
Connecticut: Memphis, @ Temple

 

[Slasher]

So now it's:

1/2 SMU/Tulsa

Cincinnati gets the 3 seed if either they win against Memphis, or Temple loses either game.
Temple gets the 3 seed if they win out and Cincinnati loses to Memphis.

Temple holds tie-breaker over Memphis, if both finish 11-7.

A three-way tie at 12-6 for 3rd, between UConn, Temple, and Cincinnati, would lead to Cincinnati getting the 3 seed, UConn the 4 seed, and Temple the 5 seed.

 

[Leebo]

Incomplete probabilities based on kenpom percentages:

1 seed: SMU (82%), Tulsa (18%)
2 seed: Tulsa (18%), SMU (18%)
3 seed: Cincinnati (92%), Temple (8%)
4 seed:
5 seed: Memphis (3%)
6 seed: Memphis (97%), UConn (3%)

I might finish the 4 and 5 seed percentages later, but there's a lot more outcomes to crunch to find those.

It's less important though, since those are interchangeable.

Odds of either 4 or 5 seed: UConn (97%), Temple (92%), (Cincy 8%), Memphis (3%)

 

[RipCity]

Thinking about the AAC tournament is giving me anxiety. May Hartford be with us.

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

Incomplete probabilities based on kenpom percentages:

1 seed: SMU (82%), Tulsa (18%)
2 seed: Tulsa (18%), SMU (18%)
3 seed: Cincinnati (92%), Temple (8%)
4 seed:
5 seed: Memphis (3%)
6 seed: Memphis (97%), UConn (3%)

I might finish the 4 and 5 seed percentages later, but there's a lot more outcomes to crunch to find those.

It's less important though, since those are interchangeable.

Odds of either 4 or 5 seed: UConn (97%), Temple (92%), (Cincy 8%), Memphis (3%)

Could there be something mojo-related in leaving the 4 slot [blank]?

 

[Leebo]

Could there be something mojo-related in leaving the 4 slot [blank]?

Sure, we'll call it that.

 

[BLUEDOGHOUSE]

It looks like if we go W/Memphis, W/Temple, W/Temple, W/SMU and L/Cincinnati it could take a royal screw job to keep us from this:

 

[4in16]

I'd say it's a 99.9% chance we play at 2pm on Friday with a W tonight.

 

[gampelcrazies]

I'd say it's a 99.9% chance we play at 2pm on Friday with a W tonight.

If we win tonight I'm pretty sure we automatically play on friday at 2:00

 

[jfuchs91]

As it currently stands, we're guaranteed to be between 4-6. If we win out, we claim the four seed. If we lose out, we get the six.

If we win tonight, we're guaranteed to be playing in the 4-5 game on Friday afternoon. Which makes Sunday's game of Tulsa @ SMU huge. The winner of that game gets the top seed in the tournament, and would likely be our semifinals opponent assuming we get past the first game. I'd like to avoid SMU for as long as possible.