UConn stats...scoring analysis...

[DavidinNaples]

With last night's 64-69 loss to St. John's, the Huskies have now failed to score 70 points in 5 straight games. That is the first time since 1992 that UConn has not reached that mark for 5 consecutive games. What is the reason for the scoring drought? I examined the last 10 games, the last 5 w/ not reaching 70 pts and then the previous 5 before those games. Here's what I found.

1. Points scored - In the last 5 games, UConn has scored 64, 60, 62, 67 and 52 points. (most recent to five games ago). That totals 305 pts or 61.0 per game. In the prior 5 games to those games, they scored 77, 64, 63, 84 and 94 points. That totals 382 or 76.4 per game. So, clearly the scoring is way off, almost 15 pts per game. But why?

2. Scoring chances - How many shots and free throws did UConn get per game? The most recent 5 games they had a total of 359 shots + free throws for an average of 71.8 per game. The prior 5 games, the Huskies had 369 total scoring chances or 73.8 per game. So the problem appears NOT to be scoring chances. It must be shooting %...

3. Shooting % - Last night, UConn shot 35.5% from the field. In the prior 4 games the shooting % was 42.6%, 37.9%, 44% and 40.4%. The 5 games before those five the shooting % was 51.9%, 50.9%, 42.9%, 55% and 54.4%. There is the problem..!!

Conclusion - The Huskies are getting chances to score at about the same rate over the last 10 games. However, the shooting % for the last 5 games is down dramatically. Hence, a five game streak of not scoring 70 points. In fact, the high for points in the last five games was 67 vs Georgetown. I looked quickly at individual players shooting stats and let's just say the blame can be spread around. I'll post more on individual stats later...

Look for the non-70 point streak to end Saturday vs DePaul.
Go Huskies..!!

 

[and one]

The St Johns game was a good illustration of why scoring is down. There were few (if any) easy points. The well executed offense and active defense are missing. A couple of steals leading to easy layups, some backdoor cuts for easy layups, some offensive rebounds for easy layups, these things are missing. So many shots around the basket missed or blocked. When you aren't getting easy points it's hard to ring up a big score.

 

[UConnCat]

The St Johns game was a good illustration of why scoring is down. There were few (if any) easy points. The well executed offense and active defense are missing. A couple of steals leading to easy layups, some backdoor cuts for easy layups, some offensive rebounds for easy layups, these things are missing. So many shots around the basket missed or blocked. When you aren't getting easy points it's hard to ring up a big score.

I agree with this except I’ll just quibble with the word “easy.” You’re not alone in describing these sort of points as easy - I’ve done it myself - but the reality is points from offensive boards or steals aren’t easy. Getting offensive rebounds requires effort, alertness and pursuit of the basketball. Only Aubrey seems to do that these days. It’s hard for Dorka as she is often on the perimeter to help space the floor. Dorka also does not have strong hands when she does have a chance to grab a rebound. That leaves Aaliyah who, lately, appears a step slow. I thought offensive rebounding could be a role for Patterson to embrace but she seems a step slow as well and has shown no instincts for tracking down rebounds.

Steals? The team seems a step slow and not especially alert, what you might expect from mental and physical fatigue. Lately this team struggles to win 50-50 balls: I’d be happy to win more of those. BTW, alertness is a word you often hear Chris Dailey mention when talking about a game (present or missing).

Back door cuts are the answer when the defense is playing tight on the perimeter. Unfortunately that defense is only being played on Lou. Defenses are sagging off Aubrey, Nika and CD and clogging up the lane. Back door cuts aren’t easy these days.

 

[DavidinNaples]

Ok, here are the individual player stats for the last 5 games, and then the 5 games before those...

1. Points scored, shooting % (most recent 5 games vs 5 games before those)
Aaliyah - 60 pts vs 90 pts, 33.3% vs 56.6%
Dorka - 71 pts vs 72 ps, 48.3% vs 50%
Aubrey - 42 pts vs 80 pts, 39.4% vs 56.6%
Lou - 74 pts vs 84 pts, 40.9% vs 44.4%
Nika -36 pts vs 41 pts, 37.5% vs 54.8%
Caroline - (only last 2 games) 13 pts on 4-20 shooting (20%)

2. Shot totals - (most recent 5 games vs 5 games before those)
Aaliyah - 63 shots vs 60 shots
Dorka - 58 shots vs 54 shots
Aubrey - 33 shots vs 53 shots
Lou - 61 shots vs 72 shots
Nika - 32 shots vs 31 shots

Conclusions:
1. Huge point reduction by Liya (30 fewer pts) and Aubrey (38 fewer pts).
2. Dorka steady point production, slight drop in shooting%.
3. Nika had high drop in shooting %, but minimal point reduction (36 vs 41).
4. Lou fairly consistent point production, 74 vs 84, but minimal % drop (41% vs 44%).
5. Caroline 1-11 in St. John loss significant.
6. Drop in points by Aaliyah and Aubrey (68 pts) is 13.6 pts per game.
7. Aubrey took 20 fewer shots in last 5 games. Lou took 11 fewer shots.
8. Liya and Dorka shooting a bit more, Lou & Aubrey less.

Thoughts?
GO Huskies..!!

 

[TCC Kid]

Thanks David.

A few things that most Uconn fans tend to forget;
1. There is another team in that game and they have studied each of Uconn's close or lost games. Weak teams now have a map to at least come close to winning.
2. The obvious is--too many minutes for too few player
3. No matter how some may think this is "part of the game", as the game was defined it isn't. Fouling is fouling. Uconn with fewer players, players are worn down even more by perpetual fouling. Then too profound fouling leads to Technicals in retribution. As Megan pointed out 10 or so years ago at CPT the Refs can't call all of them.
4. Tired legs limit 3 point advantages and ability to defend.
5. Teams that use these tactics are not BAD GUYS, coaches use what is given to them and a Tired UConn is a gift.

With last night's 64-69 loss to St. John's, the Huskies have now failed to score 70 points in 5 straight games. That is the first time since 1992 that UConn has not reached that mark for 5 consecutive games. What is the reason for the scoring drought? I examined the last 10 games, the last 5 w/ not reaching 70 pts and then the previous 5 before those games. Here's what I found.

1. Points scored - In the last 5 games, UConn has scored 64, 60, 62, 67 and 52 points. (most recent to five games ago). That totals 305 pts or 61.0 per game. In the prior 5 games to those games, they scored 77, 64, 63, 84 and 94 points. That totals 382 or 76.4 per game. So, clearly the scoring is way off, almost 15 pts per game. But why?

2. Scoring chances - How many shots and free throws did UConn get per game? The most recent 5 games they had a total of 359 shots + free throws for an average of 71.8 per game. The prior 5 games, the Huskies had 369 total scoring chances or 73.8 per game. So the problem appears NOT to be scoring chances. It must be shooting %...

3. Shooting % - Last night, UConn shot 35.5% from the field. In the prior 4 games the shooting % was 42.6%, 37.9%, 44% and 40.4%. The 5 games before those five the shooting % was 51.9%, 50.9%, 42.9%, 55% and 54.4%. There is the problem..!!

Conclusion - The Huskies are getting chances to score at about the same rate over the last 10 games. However, the shooting % for the last 5 games is down dramatically. Hence, a five game streak of not scoring 70 points. In fact, the high for points in the last five games was 67 vs Georgetown. I looked quickly at individual players shooting stats and let's just say the blame can be spread around. I'll post more on individual stats later...

Look for the non-70 point streak to end Saturday vs DePaul.
Go Huskies..

 

[JDForever]

Ok, here are the individual player stats for the last 5 games, and then the 5 games before those...

1. Points scored, shooting % (most recent 5 games vs 5 games before those)
Aaliyah - 60 pts vs 90 pts, 33.3% vs 56.6%
Dorka - 71 pts vs 72 ps, 48.3% vs 50%
Aubrey - 42 pts vs 80 pts, 39.4% vs 56.6%
Lou - 74 pts vs 84 pts, 40.9% vs 44.4%
Nika -36 pts vs 41 pts, 37.5% vs 54.8%
Caroline - (only last 2 games) 13 pts on 4-20 shooting (20%)

2. Shot totals - (most recent 5 games vs 5 games before those)
Aaliyah - 63 shots vs 60 shots
Dorka - 58 shots vs 54 shots
Aubrey - 33 shots vs 53 shots
Lou - 61 shots vs 72 shots
Nika - 32 shots vs 31 shots

Conclusions:
1. Huge point reduction by Liya (30 fewer pts) and Aubrey (38 fewer pts).
2. Dorka steady point production, slight drop in shooting%.
3. Nika had high drop in shooting %, but minimal point reduction (36 vs 41).
4. Lou fairly consistent point production, 74 vs 84, but minimal % drop (41% vs 44%).
5. Caroline 1-11 in St. John loss significant.
6. Drop in points by Aaliyah and Aubrey (68 pts) is 13.6 pts per game.
7. Aubrey took 20 fewer shots in last 5 games. Lou took 11 fewer shots.
8. Liya and Dorka shooting a bit more, Lou & Aubrey less.

Thoughts?
GO Huskies..!!

Would be interested to see the minutes per game for each player. It seems to me since CD came back the only person getting any extra rest is Aubrey.

 

[jfan]

Agree 100% with all DavidinNaples stats, analysis, and the added comments by others. All a great job! The only stats missing are the UCONN individual players minutes played. My only comment I would add is opposing teams are driving right by the UCONN players. By doing so, they getting easier shots at the basket to go in.

 

[Childhood]

Good post, thanks

 

[JBK]

Thanks David.

A few things that most Uconn fans tend to forget;
1. There is another team in that game and they have studied each of Uconn's close or lost games. Weak teams now have a map to at least come close to winning.
2. The obvious is--too many minutes for too few player
3. No matter how some may think this is "part of the game", as the game was defined it isn't. Fouling is fouling. Uconn with fewer players, players are worn down even more by perpetual fouling. Then too profound fouling leads to Technicals in retribution. As Megan pointed out 10 or so years ago at CPT the Refs can't call all of them.
4. Tired legs limit 3 point advantages and ability to defend.
5. Teams that use these tactics are not BAD GUYS, coaches use what is given to them and a Tired UConn is a gift.

I think sometimes we forget that UCONN recruits are world class athletes. They are more than capable to Play 2 - 40 minute games in a week over a few months. I fully get if they’re injured it can impact play, but let’s get off the tired talk because everyone, including Geno is listening and believing it. They were at the men’s game last night and not sitting in their dorm resting.
Bigger issues
Teams making 2nd half adjustments have completely confused us.
We looked fantastic when teams let us run up and down - Nika was an assist machine and AE looked like the NPOY - but as soon as everything slows down and packs it in - our offense has not been effective.
Thank goodness we have the best coaching staff of all time and I would expect some adjustments real soon. Averaging 62 points the last month will not cut it in any tournament.
Ps.
Why do we play ST John’s at the XL vs Gampel. We need the students for the big East home games ( not talking SC )

 

[sun]

Why do we play ST John’s at the XL vs Gampel. We need the students for the big East home games ( not talking SC )

The only out of conference games played at the XL were South Carolina & NC State.
The only other out of conference game played in Connecticut & not at Gampel this year was Florida State which was played at the Mohegan Sun Arena due to it being the nationally televised Hall of Fame game.

That means that Big East games are the only ones available to be played at the XL in order to meet the state funding mandate and to satisfy the XL season tickets holders which are important to maintaining public sipport for the WBB program.
There's no choice but to play some Big East games at the XL because UConn is a state institution and supporting the XL is required by the CT State Legislature.
Since the CT public is funding the WBB program, UConn must help support Hartford's XL in return.
Storrs is located in a remote part of the state that makes it more difficult for the public to attend.

2023-24 Women's Basketball Schedule - University of Connecticut Athletics

The official 2023-24 Women's Basketball schedule for the University of Connecticut Huskies

uconnhuskies.com

 

[temery]

Since the CT public is funding the WBB program

WBB doesn't generate enough revenue to pay for itself?

 

[visitingcock]

WBB doesn't generate enough revenue to pay for itself?

I believe that I read that the entire athletic department doesn't come close to funding itself. WBB is just one of the sports and the public pays to support all sports.

 

[temery]

It's a moot question

It's not a moot question for anyone who believes the WBB team has a debt to pay.

Reality sucks, but the MBB and WBB teams put UConn on the map. Consider donations, student applications, etc, and the state should be giving both teams the respect they deserve.

 

[Tonyc]

One problem we have failed to mention is that we can not get in foul trouble so our defense suffers. Opponents drive buy us because we cant afford to foul them with no bench. If we have a players with 2 fouls they have to play a little more cautious. With more then 3 fouls they are defenseless. Yes we all know we're drained mentally and physically and against STJ we just couldnt rise up and pull it out. It all comes down to the team needs rest and getting Caroline and Azzi up to speed. When we through the regular season we will see if that pans out.

We arent scoring alot of points for the reasons Dave mentioned in his excellent analysis. Also he mentioned how many points we were scoring. Our starters may not be injured but they are very very drained. We have been running on fumes and those fumes came to an end against STJ. Whats frustrating is we as fans know we're better then we played against STJ but we just didnt have it. Geno has done a remarkable job with this team. Early in the year when we were scoring over 70pts a game Geno was able to put reserves in. Now that we're not he cant afford to have a reserve come in who doesnt look to score because we have to many players who are not looking to score already. Yes we need scorers and we all know that thus the hope for Caroline and Azzi.

Alot of hesitation on offense because of lack of confidence in their shot. Geno slowed down the offense to give us a rest and now we dont have much movement. Theres not alot you can do when your run down and tired. Think of it this way. How do you feel when you have a head cold, scratchy throat, your legs are weak and just tired for the common cold. Thats where I think UConn is now. Dave great analysis.

 

[npignatjr]

I think sometimes we forget that UCONN recruits are world class athletes. They are more than capable to Play 2 - 40 minute games in a week over a few months. I fully get if they’re injured it can impact play, but let’s get off the tired talk because everyone, including Geno is listening and believing it. They were at the men’s game last night and not sitting in their dorm resting.
Bigger issues
Teams making 2nd half adjustments have completely confused us.
We looked fantastic when teams let us run up and down - Nika was an assist machine and AE looked like the NPOY - but as soon as everything slows down and packs it in - our offense has not been effective.
Thank goodness we have the best coaching staff of all time and I would expect some adjustments real soon. Averaging 62 points the last month will not cut it in any tournament.
Ps.
Why do we play ST John’s at the XL vs Gampel. We need the students for the big East home games ( not talking SC )

XL should be a rare thing. During the mens game I believe it was Donny Marshall who said playing at Gampel was much more a home court advantage than playing in Hartford.

 

[temery]

It’s not the electric bill, it’s football which, unlike P5 teams, is far from self-supporting. That and the $13 million lawsuit payment to Kevin Ollie spiked the budget.

The state pays only indirectly. The deficit comes from UConn - donations, tuition, activity fees, and some state support paid to the school, not to the Athletics Department

UConn sports subsidy larger than ever despite years of promises

Why have years of promises to reduce UConn's athletic department subsidy have proven so difficult to keep? Here are just a few of the reasons.

www.ctinsider.com

UConn athletics posts $47.2 million deficit for 2021

Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 had a negative impact on the athletic department’s financials.

www.theuconnblog.com

Years ago UMass cut several teams to satisfy the bean counters, and title IX.

The same year their fb team played BC, spending more than it would have cost to save most if not all teams that were cut.

They bet the farm on moving the fb program up to Div I.

A big time fb program can rake in enough to fund pretty much every sport. My guess is only a dozen programs get that job done.

 

[HuskyNan]

Years ago UMass cut several teams to satisfy the bean counters, and title IX.

The same year their fb team played BC, spending more than it would have cost to save most if not all teams that were cut.

They bet the farm on moving the fb program up to Div I.

A big time fb program can rake in enough to fund pretty much every sport. My guess is only a dozen programs get that job done.

Hence the desire t get into the ACC, even though some here call it a dying conference.

 

[BRS24]

I think sometimes we forget that UCONN recruits are world class athletes. They are more than capable to Play 2 - 40 minute games in a week over a few months. I fully get if they’re injured it can impact play, but let’s get off the tired talk because everyone, including Geno is listening and believing it.

Receipts please. None of us know the physical condition of the players, and whether or not they can play 80 minutes without some effects. Playing basketball 40 mpg is similar to soccer players playing 90 mins. As I've never done either, I'm not in a position to opine on capabilities of others. Geno would be the first one to shut the "they're tired" shtick if it weren't true, and as the head coach, he's probably got more information on the status of the players than anyone else.

They were at the men’s game last night and not sitting in their dorm resting.

Oh lordy. College students taking a break from studies and sitting at a MBB game instead of sitting in their dorm rooms? In the words of Keyshawn Johnson, C'mon man. Both programs support each other, and maybe, the women just needed to watch a game without any pressure, you know, experience a typical college student event?

 

[diggerfoot]

Thanks @DavidinNaples as usual for your excellent, thought-provoking statistics. What I would be interested in are the scoring chances for the first 5+ games, up until when it became evident that injuries were going to be a major problem for us, perhaps when Fudd first went down. Here’s why.

The UConn motto is to “Play hard. Play smart. Have fun.” We recruit kids who would aspire to that motto. Normally, the UConn style of “fun” is an uptempo, transition type of game that fully utilizes the skill and athleticism of our recruits. But we needed to curtail that approach once the injuries piled up.

I’ve been on record, from being an endurance athlete myself, that the problem does not lie with physical fatigue. The body can be conditioned to handle so much more than 40 minutes of playing time, even on a daily basis. But avoiding mental fatigue depends upon more than just conditioning, namely hormonal and neurotransmitter interactions.

Our normal style of UConn basketball brings joy to the type of people and players we recruit. That joy was on display early in the season, not so much after injuries piled up and our style changed. I am guessing that a decrease in chances per game correlates with a decrease in dopamine, endorphins and adrenaline per game as well.

But in typical fashion I am too lazy to research that myself.

@DavidinNaples ?

 

[sun]

It's not a moot question for anyone who believes the WBB team has a debt to pay.

Reality sucks, but the MBB and WBB teams put UConn on the map. Consider donations, student applications, etc, and the state should be giving both teams the respect they deserve.

It’s not the electric bill, it’s football which, unlike P5 teams, is far from self-supporting. That and the $13 million lawsuit payment to Kevin Ollie spiked the budget.

The state pays only indirectly. The deficit comes from UConn - donations, tuition, activity fees, and some state support paid to the school, not to the Athletics Department

UConn sports subsidy larger than ever despite years of promises

Why have years of promises to reduce UConn's athletic department subsidy have proven so difficult to keep? Here are just a few of the reasons.

www.ctinsider.com

UConn athletics posts $47.2 million deficit for 2021

Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 had a negative impact on the athletic department’s financials.

www.theuconnblog.com

Let's not forget UConn has many campuses including 2 - 3 in Hartford, the law school and the new branch in downtown Hartford plus the grad school of social work.
Others are located in Avery Point, Stamford, Waterbury & the Medical Center in Farmington right outside of Hartford that the state recently invested over $1 billion to expand.
I really don't know how playing at the XL is somehow disrespectful as you insinuate.

When the teams have won NC's, they've always held a big victory parade for them in Hartford.
Billions of Dollars have been invested by the state to rebuild the Storrs campus and to move the West Hartford branch to Hartford.
And the state helped to build the new football stadium in East Hartford too.
It's not like the students could ever fill up that stadium without public fan support.
The point is that UConn is more than just the Storrs campus since UConn is statewide with billions invested in the Hartford area campuses alone, and that's not including the other UConn branches.
All of the UConn students statewide are equal partners supporting the BB teams & all sports through their fees.
They can obtain some limited access to sports events at the Hartford XL.

 

[temery]

I really don't know how playing at the XL is somehow disrespectful as you insinuate.

You clearly don't understand. 25 years ago Connecticut was a suburb of NYC. With the Whalers gone the only thing keeping the XL Center open was UConn MBB and WBB.

What's disrespectful is the thought either team owes the state or the XL Center anything.

 

[DavidinNaples]

Digger,
1. Azzi Fudd was hurt in the 7th game against ND. In those first 6 games, before injury, UConn had an average of 79.8 scoring chances per game. (Shots + free throws). The actual #s were 92, 78, 82, 75, 75, and 77.
2. In the ND game, Azzi played 13 minutes and there were 70 scoring chances. (Game 7)
3. In the next 5 games after ND, scoring chances fell to an average of 75. (Games 8-12)
4. In the 5 games following those games, CD got hurt and the average fell again to 70. (Games 13-17)
5. In the most recent 10 games, the average settled in at 72.8 per game.

Conclusions:
1. Fudd scored 17.9 points per game while shooting 54% from the field an 92% from the charity stripe. Her injury lowered scoring and scoring chances.
2. Further injuries (CD, Dorka,) lowered points and chances to score again.
3. UConn still gets enough chances to score, but shooting % is down of late.
4. Azzi's injury impacted the offense tremendously. CD's injury added to the problem.
5. UConn scored 534 points in those first 6 games. An average of 89 per game before Azzi got hurt.

Credit to the team that they are 24-5 with everything they have been through.
Go Huskies..!!
@diggerfoot

 

[diggerfoot]

Digger,
1. Azzi Fudd was hurt in the 7th game against ND. In those first 6 games, before injury, UConn had an average of 79.8 scoring chances per game. (Shots + free throws). The actual #s were 92, 78, 82, 75, 75, and 77.
2. In the ND game, Azzi played 13 minutes and there were 70 scoring chances. (Game 7)
3. In the next 5 games after ND, scoring chances fell to an average of 75. (Games 8-12)
4. In the 5 games following those games, CD got hurt and the average fell again to 70. (Games 13-17)
5. In the most recent 10 games, the average settled in at 72.8 per game.

Conclusions:
1. Fudd scored 17.9 points per game while shooting 54% from the field an 92% from the charity stripe. Her injury lowered scoring and scoring chances.
2. Further injuries (CD, Dorka,) lowered points and chances to score again.
3. UConn still gets enough chances to score, but shooting % is down of late.
4. Azzi's injury impacted the offense tremendously. CD's injury added to the problem.
5. UConn scored 534 points in those first 6 games. An average of 89 per game before Azzi got hurt.

Credit to the team that they are 24-5 with everything they have been through.
Go Huskies..!!
@diggerfoot

Thanks @DavidinNaples ! Your data supports my hypothesis. A reduction of nearly 10% in a game with a shot clock, between the first six and last six, I suspect would pass tests of significance.

As for the delay in the dip in offensive efficiency, I would attribute that to the mental fatigue factor having built up over time.

 

[Rowdy831]

I think sometimes we forget that UCONN recruits are world class athletes. They are more than capable to Play 2 - 40 minute games in a week over a few months. I fully get if they’re injured it can impact play, but let’s get off the tired talk because everyone, including Geno is listening and believing it. They were at the men’s game last night and not sitting in their dorm resting.
Bigger issues
Teams making 2nd half adjustments have completely confused us.
We looked fantastic when teams let us run up and down - Nika was an assist machine and AE looked like the NPOY - but as soon as everything slows down and packs it in - our offense has not been effective.
Thank goodness we have the best coaching staff of all time and I would expect some adjustments real soon. Averaging 62 points the last month will not cut it in any tournament.
Ps.
Why do we play ST John’s at the XL vs Gampel. We need the students for the big East home games ( not talking SC )

All athletes, even those in the NBA need to have a chance to catch their breath during a game. Basketball isn't like football where you run a play and then stand still for a minute to catch your breath.