I said this in the Duke analysis thread - Duke 63, UCONN 61
I hope i'm wrong. But UCONN has been out of sorts and "struggled" against Maryland and PSU (two teams not close to Duke's calibur), and lost a close one to ND. I think Duke's guards are better than UCONN's RIGHT NOW (Grey/Jones vs. Doty/Hartley)and we saw what happened when ND's guards of McBride and Diggins as well as Loyd were able to control the game. I think Chelsea Grey is one of the best PG's in the game - on par with Simms and Diggins. Hartley is a 2G and cannot match up as a floor general vs. Grey (IMHO). Doty and Jefferson will need to shoulder the load. I just see Grey as too much for our PG's to handle...
I think Duke learns from what other teams successfully did vs. UCONN earlier this year. Play physical and push us around. It takes us out of rhythm and makes our offense sputter. Add in the fact that Hartley's shooting touch is still suspect, and the TO's have been... prevalent lately (especially Faris), and I think we are out of sorts and struggling a bit.
Duke's scoring is similar to UCONN's - they have 4 who average double figures and their offense is spread across their talent like ours is. We can win this game, and make it look easy IF Hartley regains her shooting touch, our offense limits the turnovers, and we are able to limit the effectiveness of the physical play Duke will throw at us. We've struggled thru injuries and player illnesses and at this time of the season, I don't think we are at 100% and i'd not be surprised to see Duke spring the upset... IMHO, however, March will be a different story... Now let's hope I'm way off and UCONN wins by 15+!!
