Predictions: UConn 75 vs. Duke 62

[Replicant]

Can't wait to get this one started. Duke is overdue to represent and my sense is that this year's team has more balance than in recent years. We also go into this match-up a bit more nicked up than usual.

So here's my rationale...UConn scores 4.2ppg more than Duke. UConn defends 3.8ppg better than Duke. Throw on 5 points for home court and I give us a 13 point advantage. If we go on several big runs and build up a huge lead, the doubts of 'here we go again' could play havoc on the Blue Devil's psyche and ability to keep this one competitive. Outside of that possibility....UConn 75 vs. Duke 62

 

[EricLA]

I said this in the Duke analysis thread - Duke 63, UCONN 61

I hope i'm wrong. But UCONN has been out of sorts and "struggled" against Maryland and PSU (two teams not close to Duke's calibur), and lost a close one to ND. I think Duke's guards are better than UCONN's RIGHT NOW (Grey/Jones vs. Doty/Hartley)and we saw what happened when ND's guards of McBride and Diggins as well as Loyd were able to control the game. I think Chelsea Grey is one of the best PG's in the game - on par with Simms and Diggins. Hartley is a 2G and cannot match up as a floor general vs. Grey (IMHO). Doty and Jefferson will need to shoulder the load. I just see Grey as too much for our PG's to handle...

I think Duke learns from what other teams successfully did vs. UCONN earlier this year. Play physical and push us around. It takes us out of rhythm and makes our offense sputter. Add in the fact that Hartley's shooting touch is still suspect, and the TO's have been... prevalent lately (especially Faris), and I think we are out of sorts and struggling a bit.

Duke's scoring is similar to UCONN's - they have 4 who average double figures and their offense is spread across their talent like ours is. We can win this game, and make it look easy IF Hartley regains her shooting touch, our offense limits the turnovers, and we are able to limit the effectiveness of the physical play Duke will throw at us. We've struggled thru injuries and player illnesses and at this time of the season, I don't think we are at 100% and i'd not be surprised to see Duke spring the upset... IMHO, however, March will be a different story... Now let's hope I'm way off and UCONN wins by 15+!!

 

[OneTrickPony]

I, too, think this will be a competitive game that can be impacted by one or more players going off. In general, I see the challenge here as similar to the Stanford game with the added threat of Chelsea Gray, a guard for whom Stanford has no equivalent. On the plus side, Beth Williams is not as athletic as Chiney Ogwumike...if we can get reasonable minutes from Kiah, I think we have a clear advantage in the paint.,

Duke has no defender outside Williams that can stay with Breanna Stewart if she's on...not guaranteed she will be but I don't see the Duke forwards being as physical as some of the players that have given Breanna problems this year. Unless Duke finds a way to control Breanna without uncovering Stef or KML...I think we cruise to a double digit victory that isn't in doubt. I like Rep's score...seems about right.

Caveat...I haven't seen Duke this year, so I'm not giving any credit for improvement like I've seen with a number of players this year...especially a certain wing from Notre Dame.

 

[jplotinus]

UCONN and the fan base appearto have suffered from and after the easy win vs Stanford. It was understandable that we'd think all games against top teams would be just as easy and that predicting 20+ victory margins would be safe and reasonable.

It hasn't been quite that easy.

The stats as between UCONN and Duke suggest a close game IMHO. I am staking my guess as to the outcome on Stewart, as I also alluded to in the DD analysis thread. I'm calling on Stewart to relax, kick butt and take no prisoners. If so:

UCONN 82 - Duke 67

 

[bruinbball]

UConn 69 - Duke 64.

 

[FairView]

UConn 72 - Duke 58

 

[UConnChapette]

UConn 77 - Duke 71

 

[Plumber Luigi]

75 - 62 UConn

 

[rjp172]

Hard to to predict because Duke hasn't been seen. I'm going with recent history. UConn comfortably.

 

[DaddyChoc]

74-61 UConn

 

[CTGirl15]

Well, this may be the toughest game to predict this season.

As everyone has said, Duke is the great unknown right now. On paper, this should be a competitive game and close finish. UConn has been struggling lately and seems a little off. But, it's hard to tell where Duke is at this point because no one has really seen them play and they haven't played any top teams yet.

I'm nervous about this game because of the unknown an UConn's recent struggles. However, UConn has recent history on it's side and there is little if any bad blood between the teams (unlike ND).

I'm going hesitantly call this game a UConn win for the reasons above, but it's going to be a close one and I would not be surprised if it swung the other way.

UConn 73 - Duke 68

 

[semper]

It is going to depend on KML and Stewie, I tells ya. UCONN 69 Duke 63. But I know notheeng, notheeng.

 

[reno tony]

Can't wait to get this one started. Duke is overdue to represent and my sense is that this year's team has more balance than in recent years. We also go into this match-up a bit more nicked up than usual.

So here's my rationale...UConn scores 4.2ppg more than Duke. UConn defends 3.8ppg better than Duke. Throw on 5 points for home court and I give us a 13 point advantage. If we go on several big runs and build up a huge lead, the doubts of 'here we go again' could play havoc on the Blue Devil's psyche and ability to keep this one competitive. Outside of that possibility....UConn 75 vs. Duke 62

I believe your analysis has basis except for one thing.... quality of opponents. I don't believe Duke would have those same stats had they been playing against the ranked opponents that UCONN has. But I thought UCONN would handle N.D. easily so my judgement is suspect. I hope it is a competitive game but I will be surprised if they stay within 20 points.

 

[Blueballer]

The turnover problems have me sweating this one out. I'm going to call for a close escape and hope they get back in a nice groove and prove me wrong.

Uconn 80-77

 

[Kevin G]

Duke is a very talented and athletic team. So this game makes me nervous especially since we have taken the last three by an average of 25.0 ppg. Revenge can be a great motivator. However, we are at home and have gained a faster, bigger, and more experienced roster from last year's win.

Duke is 16-0 but have only played ONE ranked team (a very good one at that); UCONN has played 7 ranked teams so far. Either this plays in our favor (from experience) or it hurts us (fatigue).

UCONN 73 Duke 62

 

[Replicant]

I believe your analysis has basis except for one thing.... quality of opponents. I don't believe Duke would have those same stats had they been playing against the ranked opponents that UCONN has.

As Don Rumsfeld famously said...we can only deal with the "known, knowns". I don't want to dismiss Duke, because as Rebecca's ESPN article stated, this Duke junior class was the top rated recruiting class the year they came out and they have multiple Elite 8 experiences to rely upon.

That said, the only ranked team they've played thus far was then #10 Cal and the game was a pedestrian 14 point win at Cameron. They may not be prepared for a UConn level of play. We'll find out in 75 minutes, but a 20+ point blow-out is very possible (as always ).

 

[CCinCT]

UCONN 80 - Duke 60

 

[triaddukefan]

Duke will have more than 13 points at halftime, and will score more than 36 points for the game.




Sent from my SGH-T959V using Tapatalk 2

 

[VAMike23]

Without looking at the thread to see if he's posted, I will take Tonyc's point spread prediction and cut it in half.

UCONN by (Tonyc ÷ 2)

 

[UCONNfan1]

UCONN 68
Duke 61

 

[VAMike23]

Without looking at the thread to see if he's posted, I will take Tonyc's point spread prediction and cut it in half.

UCONN by (Tonyc ÷ 2)

Did I say "divided by" ? I meant "times"!

 

[Samanthabrown3]

Boy, were we wrong.

 

[ThisJustIn]

If you're going to be wrong, it's a great wrong to be!

 

[MilfordHusky]

I was a little worried, because we had been playing sloppy basketball.

In the end, yet another 30-point win over Duke.

Someone needs to check on Triad.

 

[Wbbfan1]

Didn't make a prediction, but thought the game would be relatively close with UConn winning by 10-12 points. Never thought I would see this Duke team completely melt down in the 2nd half against the UConn run. They definitely got the deer in the headlight in the 2nd half and didn't have a player that said enough of this. Don't think they gave up, just didn't know what to do to stop UConn's run. Duke is a soft team that needs to play a more physical game if they want to compete against ND, Stanford, Baylor & UConn.