Matrim55
Why is it so hard To make it in America
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Original thread is HERE.
The premise of this thread is so: We will have at least 2 open scholarships next season, and I believe that, given our roster make-up and the remaining HS seniors on the board, we'd be better served by spending those two scholarships on players who already have college experience, then concentrating on the incoming class of 2018.
Here's the 2017/18 roster as long as nobody declares for the draft or transfers:
PG: Jalen (Jr), Alterique (RS-Fr), MAL (Fr)
SG: Vital (So)
SF: Larrier (Jr), Vance (So), Polley (Fr)
PF: Durham (So), Diarra (RS-Fr)
C: Enoch (Jr), Carleton (Fr)
Some of these positions are flexible. Jalen, for example, will play off the ball much more next year than he has this year, and Larrier will play a bunch of smallball 4 with Vance at the three. Nonetheless I see two big gaps: A pure wing with range, and an experienced big man who can rebound the damn basketball.
Bear in mind that we are well in the running for JuCo SG Shawn Olden, who played 1.5 years at Pepperdine and would come in next year as a junior if we can get him. He's a pretty athletic shooter who, at 6-foot-3, is a pretty typical college SG. His shooting numbers in junior college aren't great right now, though it's good to remember that he's got the ball in his hands as a first option at all times with that team, which means he takes a ton of bad shots. Playing off the ball as a third option for Pepperdine, he was much more efficient.
If we get Olden we won't have any interest, I don't think, in backcourt/wing postgrads, and if Olden offers a commit we will 100% take it.
With that as context, here are the postgrads I think have a decent shot at transferring, and thus are guys we should/will target this spring:
BIG MEN
Kameron Rooks, Cal: 7-foot-1, 270 lb center who redshirted his sophomore year after tearing an ACL. Came back last year and played about 17 MPG, and is putting in the same amount of work this year (tho he missed all of December with an injury). Averaging 5/5.5/2 on 57/00/63 shooting splits.
He's a true wide-bodied 5. Savvier than Enoch, but about the same in terms of footspeed and agility, so he'd be great against some teams and awful against others -- which is why he doesn't start for Cal. Father is Sean Rooks, who I'm sure most of you remember from Arizona and about a dozen years in the NBA.
Defensively, he can be killed on the pick and roll, but at the same time he absolutely feasts on the defensive glass.
Do we want him? Yup, and he's probably my first choice. Worth noting that Ollie recruiting him back in the day, but my guess is he stays at Cal for his 5th year.
Dwight Coleby, Kansas: 6-foot-9, 240 lb C averaging 1/2/1 on 42/00/33 shooting splits. He's playing just 6 minutes a night and has been a DNP-CD for about half their games this year.
Here's the thing, though: He was actually better-than-decent two years back for Ole Miss, and was one of the most highly sought-after transfers out there when he left. He went for 5.5/5/1 in 17 mpg on 53/00/80 shooting splits, and I'm kind of stunned he hasn't had more run for KU with Azubuike hurt and Lucas struggling.
Do we want him? Yup. And given KU's front-court make-up, my guess is he transfers for his 5th year. We should be the first call he takes.
Ronald Delph, Florida Atlantic: 7-foot, 245 lb center who started his career at Auburn but never played a game for them, and is now in his second season at FAU. Averaging 10/8/.2 as well as 1.3 blocks per game on 58/00/60 shooting splits.
Delph is a pure center who can't do anything but protect the paint and rebound the ball. His defensive rebound rate is 24%, which is 5% higher than anybody on our team. Obviously that would come down a bit against better comp, but still. And at worst, he's another 5 fouls to throw out on the court.
Do we want him? Yup. If he's available we should make a run at him, though if I had to choose between him and Coleby I'd go with Coleby.
Romelo Banks, North Florida: 6-foot-11, 250 lb center who averages 8.5p/6.3r/.3 on 54/00/49 shooting, as well as 1block per game. He went for 16/10 against Auburn to start the year, 13/9 against LSU, 7/10 against Syracuse and 11/3 against us (including 2 nice little hooks over Amida).
He commits a ton of fouls, and isn't as good a defensive rebounder as the other options.
Do we want him? If there are no other options out there, I think we'd take him. But I'm not convinced he'd be a difference-maker on any sort of game-to-game basis.
Sean Obi, Duke: 6-foot-9, 255 lb C who has barely gotten on the floor for Duke over the past season-and-a-half after transferring from Rice. As a freshman he averaged 12p/9.5r/.8b/.7a on 59/54 shooting splits for a bad team against decent competition.
Obi can't protect the rim much, and his lateral movement is bad. It might be worse than "bad" after offseason knee surgery (he went under the knife in June), but I don't care... the dude, when on the floor, rebounds.
Do we want him? He showed no real interest in UConn after deciding he was going to transfer from Rice, and his lack of PT since 2015 is obviously a worry. But if they decide they want a guy who cleans the glass for 15-20 minutes a night, we could do worse than Obi.
WINGS
Remember that if Olden commits over the next month, we likely won't have much interest in the following players...
Egor Koulechov, Rice: 6-foot-5, 210 lb SG who is averaging 20/8/2 on 53/54/85 shooting splits. That second number is not a typo -- he's shooting 54% from 3 this year on 4.6 attempts per game (he was 34% on 7.3 attempts per game last year). Started his career at Arizona State.
Koulechov was born in Russia but raised in Israel, so yeah... if this guy's available, KO should have Doron and Nadav make a few calls. Bear in mind that pretty much every school in the country will want his services, and he'll almost certainly have to have a starting spot promised to get his commit.
His defensive rebounding rate is 19.9%, which would lead us this year. I'd cut off an arm to add him to our current team.
Do we want him? So, so bad. He'd be our starting SG with Jalen at PG and Alterique off the bench.
BJ Johnson, LaSalle: 6-foot-7 200 lb wing who wasted two years at Syracuse before transferring home to Philly. He's averaging 19p/6r/1a/1b/1s per game this season, on 50/41/84 shooting splits, and he's been the best player on the floor vs. teams like Villanova, Georgetown, Temple & Dayton
He's a former top 100 recruit who will either end up in the draft or with a bigger program next year. Pitino is probably courtside already, to be honest.
Johnson is much more of a SF than a SG, which is why I ranked him lower than Koulechov.
Do we want him? Yes, but I don't think we'd have a shot given our SF depth.
Matt Mobley, St. Bonaventure: 6-foot-3, 210 lb SG from Worcester who's averaging 19/6/3.3 on 43/39/83 shooting splits. Played two years at CCSU before transferring to the Bonnies. He's had huge games against the likes of Florida & UMass, and started off the year on fire but has seen his efficiency come down a bit as he's been worn out by playing nearly 40 MPG.
If St. Bonaventure struggle -- and I think they might -- I could see him transferring for his fifth year. But if they get hot/play decent over the next couple of months, and maybe make the tournament, I think he'll return for his final season since their team is mostly young. Also worth noting, their PG is named (no joke) Jalen Adams.
Do we want him? If the other guys are off the board, I really think we do. But he'd have to be comfortable with a MUCH smaller role for us than he's had this season with the Bonnies.
Henry Caruso, Princeton: 6-foot-4 210 lb SG who played 8 games this year, got injured, and will certainly be granted another year of eligibility. Averaged 15/6/2 last year on 52/45/72 shooting splits. Kid is lights out when he gets an inch of space and has done it against good comp.
He'll have to transfer because of Ivy League rules, just like Shonn Miller did. He's from San Mateo so my guess is both Stanford and Cal come hard, as will any team that needs a wing shooter.
His upside won't be as high as the guys above him on this list, and there are times he'd struggle against real athletes.
Do we want him? Yes. He'd be a role player for us -- shooting, some rebounding & energy. But in terms of fit, he'd be damn near perfect.
Kahlil Dukes, Niagara: 6-foot-0, 170 lb SG from Hartford who spent his first two years at USC. Averaging 16/3/3.5 on 44/44/93 shooting splits.
Dukes is a specialist: He stands behind the line and rains hot fire. He can't finish at the rim against elite competition and struggles to guard anybody with "Big East athleticism." And as you can see, he's very undersized for a SG even in the college game, so for us he would have a limited role and limited minutes. He also wouldn't help our rebounding issues at all, while the other guys would.
Do we want him? If we miss out on Olden and the guys above? Sure.
OH CRAP, JALEN DECLARED & WE NEED ANOTHER PG
If Jalen declares, I'm of the opinion that we need another experienced PG on the roster since Alterique is injury prone & MAL comes into college as more of a combo guard and probably won't contribute much until he's a sophomore. Here are the guys to watch...
Brandon Goodwin, Florida Gulf Coast: 6-foot-2, 180 lb SG who transferred from UCF after the 2015 season (remember him?). He's putting up 17/4/4 on 55/40/78 shooting splits. Went for 22/3/3 in a 9-point loss to Baylor and 18/4/4 in a one-point loss to Sparty.
He's really more of a combo guard than a PG, so we may have interest in him even if Jalen comes back (please god let Jalen come back). But my guess is if he transfers, he'd want to go to a school where he'd have a lot of the ball in his hands. We can offer that if Jalen leaves, but if he stays... nah.
Do we want him? I'd be happy to see this guy on the team no matter what, though I think we'd prioritize other guys.
Jonathan Stark, Murray State: 6-foot-0 PG who used to play for Tulane, but transferred. Averaging 21p/3.6r/5.3a per game on 43/42/83 shooting splits.
He has the ball in his hands at all times, but keeps his turnovers pretty low. Takes some wild shots, though. Unlike Goodwin he really is a pure PG.
Do we want him? Only in case of emergency. Also... were I a betting man, I'd wager on seeing this guy in Orange next year.
Marcus Keene, Central Michigan: 5-foot-9 PG who's leading the nation in scoring at 28.7 ppg, also w/ 4.6r/5.2a on 47/36/86 shooting splits. He has cooled down significantly after a very hot start to the season, but the numbers are pretty tough to ignore, aren't they?
The vast majority of this has come against subpar opponents, though he did do 25/5/5 against Illinois. He is one of those prototypical undersized college lead guards who can get just about anywhere on the court and will cause a bigger team fits if they make the tourney.
Do we want him? Honestly, not really. He's more of a scorer than a shooter, his defense isn't great and he'd need the ball at all times.
The premise of this thread is so: We will have at least 2 open scholarships next season, and I believe that, given our roster make-up and the remaining HS seniors on the board, we'd be better served by spending those two scholarships on players who already have college experience, then concentrating on the incoming class of 2018.
Here's the 2017/18 roster as long as nobody declares for the draft or transfers:
PG: Jalen (Jr), Alterique (RS-Fr), MAL (Fr)
SG: Vital (So)
SF: Larrier (Jr), Vance (So), Polley (Fr)
PF: Durham (So), Diarra (RS-Fr)
C: Enoch (Jr), Carleton (Fr)
Some of these positions are flexible. Jalen, for example, will play off the ball much more next year than he has this year, and Larrier will play a bunch of smallball 4 with Vance at the three. Nonetheless I see two big gaps: A pure wing with range, and an experienced big man who can rebound the damn basketball.
Bear in mind that we are well in the running for JuCo SG Shawn Olden, who played 1.5 years at Pepperdine and would come in next year as a junior if we can get him. He's a pretty athletic shooter who, at 6-foot-3, is a pretty typical college SG. His shooting numbers in junior college aren't great right now, though it's good to remember that he's got the ball in his hands as a first option at all times with that team, which means he takes a ton of bad shots. Playing off the ball as a third option for Pepperdine, he was much more efficient.
If we get Olden we won't have any interest, I don't think, in backcourt/wing postgrads, and if Olden offers a commit we will 100% take it.
With that as context, here are the postgrads I think have a decent shot at transferring, and thus are guys we should/will target this spring:
BIG MEN
Kameron Rooks, Cal: 7-foot-1, 270 lb center who redshirted his sophomore year after tearing an ACL. Came back last year and played about 17 MPG, and is putting in the same amount of work this year (tho he missed all of December with an injury). Averaging 5/5.5/2 on 57/00/63 shooting splits.
He's a true wide-bodied 5. Savvier than Enoch, but about the same in terms of footspeed and agility, so he'd be great against some teams and awful against others -- which is why he doesn't start for Cal. Father is Sean Rooks, who I'm sure most of you remember from Arizona and about a dozen years in the NBA.
Defensively, he can be killed on the pick and roll, but at the same time he absolutely feasts on the defensive glass.
Do we want him? Yup, and he's probably my first choice. Worth noting that Ollie recruiting him back in the day, but my guess is he stays at Cal for his 5th year.
Dwight Coleby, Kansas: 6-foot-9, 240 lb C averaging 1/2/1 on 42/00/33 shooting splits. He's playing just 6 minutes a night and has been a DNP-CD for about half their games this year.
Here's the thing, though: He was actually better-than-decent two years back for Ole Miss, and was one of the most highly sought-after transfers out there when he left. He went for 5.5/5/1 in 17 mpg on 53/00/80 shooting splits, and I'm kind of stunned he hasn't had more run for KU with Azubuike hurt and Lucas struggling.
Do we want him? Yup. And given KU's front-court make-up, my guess is he transfers for his 5th year. We should be the first call he takes.
Ronald Delph, Florida Atlantic: 7-foot, 245 lb center who started his career at Auburn but never played a game for them, and is now in his second season at FAU. Averaging 10/8/.2 as well as 1.3 blocks per game on 58/00/60 shooting splits.
Delph is a pure center who can't do anything but protect the paint and rebound the ball. His defensive rebound rate is 24%, which is 5% higher than anybody on our team. Obviously that would come down a bit against better comp, but still. And at worst, he's another 5 fouls to throw out on the court.
Do we want him? Yup. If he's available we should make a run at him, though if I had to choose between him and Coleby I'd go with Coleby.
Romelo Banks, North Florida: 6-foot-11, 250 lb center who averages 8.5p/6.3r/.3 on 54/00/49 shooting, as well as 1block per game. He went for 16/10 against Auburn to start the year, 13/9 against LSU, 7/10 against Syracuse and 11/3 against us (including 2 nice little hooks over Amida).
He commits a ton of fouls, and isn't as good a defensive rebounder as the other options.
Do we want him? If there are no other options out there, I think we'd take him. But I'm not convinced he'd be a difference-maker on any sort of game-to-game basis.
Sean Obi, Duke: 6-foot-9, 255 lb C who has barely gotten on the floor for Duke over the past season-and-a-half after transferring from Rice. As a freshman he averaged 12p/9.5r/.8b/.7a on 59/54 shooting splits for a bad team against decent competition.
Obi can't protect the rim much, and his lateral movement is bad. It might be worse than "bad" after offseason knee surgery (he went under the knife in June), but I don't care... the dude, when on the floor, rebounds.
Do we want him? He showed no real interest in UConn after deciding he was going to transfer from Rice, and his lack of PT since 2015 is obviously a worry. But if they decide they want a guy who cleans the glass for 15-20 minutes a night, we could do worse than Obi.
WINGS
Remember that if Olden commits over the next month, we likely won't have much interest in the following players...
Egor Koulechov, Rice: 6-foot-5, 210 lb SG who is averaging 20/8/2 on 53/54/85 shooting splits. That second number is not a typo -- he's shooting 54% from 3 this year on 4.6 attempts per game (he was 34% on 7.3 attempts per game last year). Started his career at Arizona State.
Koulechov was born in Russia but raised in Israel, so yeah... if this guy's available, KO should have Doron and Nadav make a few calls. Bear in mind that pretty much every school in the country will want his services, and he'll almost certainly have to have a starting spot promised to get his commit.
His defensive rebounding rate is 19.9%, which would lead us this year. I'd cut off an arm to add him to our current team.
Do we want him? So, so bad. He'd be our starting SG with Jalen at PG and Alterique off the bench.
BJ Johnson, LaSalle: 6-foot-7 200 lb wing who wasted two years at Syracuse before transferring home to Philly. He's averaging 19p/6r/1a/1b/1s per game this season, on 50/41/84 shooting splits, and he's been the best player on the floor vs. teams like Villanova, Georgetown, Temple & Dayton
He's a former top 100 recruit who will either end up in the draft or with a bigger program next year. Pitino is probably courtside already, to be honest.
Johnson is much more of a SF than a SG, which is why I ranked him lower than Koulechov.
Do we want him? Yes, but I don't think we'd have a shot given our SF depth.
Matt Mobley, St. Bonaventure: 6-foot-3, 210 lb SG from Worcester who's averaging 19/6/3.3 on 43/39/83 shooting splits. Played two years at CCSU before transferring to the Bonnies. He's had huge games against the likes of Florida & UMass, and started off the year on fire but has seen his efficiency come down a bit as he's been worn out by playing nearly 40 MPG.
If St. Bonaventure struggle -- and I think they might -- I could see him transferring for his fifth year. But if they get hot/play decent over the next couple of months, and maybe make the tournament, I think he'll return for his final season since their team is mostly young. Also worth noting, their PG is named (no joke) Jalen Adams.
Do we want him? If the other guys are off the board, I really think we do. But he'd have to be comfortable with a MUCH smaller role for us than he's had this season with the Bonnies.
Henry Caruso, Princeton: 6-foot-4 210 lb SG who played 8 games this year, got injured, and will certainly be granted another year of eligibility. Averaged 15/6/2 last year on 52/45/72 shooting splits. Kid is lights out when he gets an inch of space and has done it against good comp.
He'll have to transfer because of Ivy League rules, just like Shonn Miller did. He's from San Mateo so my guess is both Stanford and Cal come hard, as will any team that needs a wing shooter.
His upside won't be as high as the guys above him on this list, and there are times he'd struggle against real athletes.
Do we want him? Yes. He'd be a role player for us -- shooting, some rebounding & energy. But in terms of fit, he'd be damn near perfect.
Kahlil Dukes, Niagara: 6-foot-0, 170 lb SG from Hartford who spent his first two years at USC. Averaging 16/3/3.5 on 44/44/93 shooting splits.
Dukes is a specialist: He stands behind the line and rains hot fire. He can't finish at the rim against elite competition and struggles to guard anybody with "Big East athleticism." And as you can see, he's very undersized for a SG even in the college game, so for us he would have a limited role and limited minutes. He also wouldn't help our rebounding issues at all, while the other guys would.
Do we want him? If we miss out on Olden and the guys above? Sure.
OH CRAP, JALEN DECLARED & WE NEED ANOTHER PG
If Jalen declares, I'm of the opinion that we need another experienced PG on the roster since Alterique is injury prone & MAL comes into college as more of a combo guard and probably won't contribute much until he's a sophomore. Here are the guys to watch...
Brandon Goodwin, Florida Gulf Coast: 6-foot-2, 180 lb SG who transferred from UCF after the 2015 season (remember him?). He's putting up 17/4/4 on 55/40/78 shooting splits. Went for 22/3/3 in a 9-point loss to Baylor and 18/4/4 in a one-point loss to Sparty.
He's really more of a combo guard than a PG, so we may have interest in him even if Jalen comes back (please god let Jalen come back). But my guess is if he transfers, he'd want to go to a school where he'd have a lot of the ball in his hands. We can offer that if Jalen leaves, but if he stays... nah.
Do we want him? I'd be happy to see this guy on the team no matter what, though I think we'd prioritize other guys.
Jonathan Stark, Murray State: 6-foot-0 PG who used to play for Tulane, but transferred. Averaging 21p/3.6r/5.3a per game on 43/42/83 shooting splits.
He has the ball in his hands at all times, but keeps his turnovers pretty low. Takes some wild shots, though. Unlike Goodwin he really is a pure PG.
Do we want him? Only in case of emergency. Also... were I a betting man, I'd wager on seeing this guy in Orange next year.
Marcus Keene, Central Michigan: 5-foot-9 PG who's leading the nation in scoring at 28.7 ppg, also w/ 4.6r/5.2a on 47/36/86 shooting splits. He has cooled down significantly after a very hot start to the season, but the numbers are pretty tough to ignore, aren't they?
The vast majority of this has come against subpar opponents, though he did do 25/5/5 against Illinois. He is one of those prototypical undersized college lead guards who can get just about anywhere on the court and will cause a bigger team fits if they make the tourney.
Do we want him? Honestly, not really. He's more of a scorer than a shooter, his defense isn't great and he'd need the ball at all times.