NBA Playoffs 2023

[Dogdeacon]

No matter who wins this year, I think this is another year of proving that the NBA Draft, and having a high lottery pick in particular, is not worth nearly as much as the draft junkies want to make people think. The three best players on the Nuggets (Jokic #41, Murray #7, Porter Jr. #14) and the three best players on the Heat (Butler #30, Adebayo #14, Herro #13) are not high lottery picks.

This will be the sixth champion out of the last seven where there was not more than 1 Top 5 pick among the champion's Top 3 players:

2022: Golden State: Arguably Wiggins, although a case could be made that Poole was GSW's third best player last year.
2021: Buck had no Top 5 draft picks among their top players
2020: Lakers had AD and Lebron
2019: Raptors had no Top 5 draft picks among their top players.
2018: GSW had Durant
2017: GSW had Durant

A few other teams have gotten close with high lottery picks:

2022 Celtics (Tatum, Brown, Horford)
2021 Suns (Paul, Ayton)
2018 Cavaliers (Lebron, Love)
2017 Cavaliers (Lebron, Love, Irving)

The 2016 Cavaliers had three high lottery picks (Lebron, Love, Irving), but the 2015 Warriors (no high lottery picks) and 2014 Spurs (Duncan) were not chuck full of high lottery picks. It is worth noting that even some of the high lottery picks I cite above are from the 2000's.

I would argue that there is more talent in most of the drafts since 2010 than there was before, but it is harder and harder to assess. There are a lot of good, young players in the NBA, but they are often coming later in the draft than they did 20 or 30 years ago.

Really silly analysis & argument and your facts are wrong. But even with wrong facts 4/7 title winners had a #1 pick, one had 2 #1's.

For example, The conference finals (double the teams for better statistical relevancy) had plenty of top-5s playing (LeBron, AD, D.Russell, Tatum, Brown, KLove, AGordon, JGreen).

Not sure what your point is. Do you need a superstar to win in NBA?! (hint: YES) But you can get that superstar outside of the lottery. Your odds are better higher up AND you need to have really great scouting, forecasting and player development - so that you don't mess up those high picks and maximize value of later picks. In a league based on talent the draft is super important. High picks aren't everything, but drafting well & high picks are how you win titles. The better point is a high draft pick absent good scouting and player development does not equal success, Sacto & Clippers franchises histories of often being in or winning the lottery and no titles to show for it probably best embody this. Do you want to bet that San Antonio wins a title in next 7yrs?

 

[traitor71]

Maybe if some of these teams were mentally stronger, they would still be around.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Really silly analysis & argument and your facts are wrong. But even with wrong facts 4/7 title winners had a #1 pick, one had 2 #1's.

For example, The conference finals (double the teams for better statistical relevancy) had plenty of top-5s playing (LeBron, AD, D.Russell, Tatum, Brown, KLove, AGordon, JGreen).

Not sure what your point is. Do you need a superstar to win in NBA?! (hint: YES) But you can get that superstar outside of the lottery. Your odds are better higher up AND you need to have really great scouting, forecasting and player development - so that you don't mess up those high picks and maximize value of later picks. In a league based on talent the draft is super important. High picks aren't everything, but drafting well & high picks are how you win titles. The better point is a high draft pick absent good scouting and player development does not equal success, Sacto & Clippers franchises histories of often being in or winning the lottery and no titles to show for it probably best embody this. Do you want to bet that San Antonio wins a title in next 7yrs?

4 of the last 7 had the # 1 pick? Who are you talking about? Durant was the #2 pick in 2007.

Fun fact: only a handful of the players that were high draft picks won their title, or got close, for the team that drafted them. And that is giving credit to the Cavaliers for Lebron leaving and coming back. Even when a high draft pick turns out to be good, he often doesn’t help the team that drafted him.

 

[Dogdeacon]

4 of the last 7 had the # 1 pick? Who are you talking about? Durant was the #2 pick in 2007.

Fun fact: only a handful of the players that were high draft picks won their title, or got close, for the team that drafted them. And that is giving credit to the Cavaliers for Lebron leaving and coming back. Even when a high draft pick turns out to be good, he often doesn’t help the team that drafted him.

I was counting Durant as #1, the Oden pick was ridiculous. Regardless splitting hairs.
Do an analysis of NBA history & titles by pick #, 1-15 it will show the higher the pick the greater title odds. Also true as I said bad team management will offset pick value Clippers continually screw up, Magic don't win a title despite getting Shaq & DHoward (but got to finals with each) but San Antonio does and will win titles when getting Duncan & Wemby
Even your own example doesn't work of LeBron coming back to Cleveland because the guy that made the winning shot in the decisive game also happened to be a #1 pick. Since you are 'giving credit' & counting for LeBron then adding Kyrie it counts twice!

 

[Waquoit]

I was counting Durant as #1, the Oden pick was ridiculous. Regardless splitting hairs.

Huh? Does that work when you lose a bet?

 

[Dogdeacon]

Huh? Does that work when you lose a bet?

Agreed if there was a bet or debate whether KD was a #1 pick he was not. That wasn't nelson's hypothesis.
His silly argument was 6 of last 7 NBA champs had not more 1 of their top 3 players as top 5 picks. So that's why he listed Durant. Main rebuttal was the 23 conference finals featured 8 err 9 top-5 picks (I forgot to list Horford) - that's almost half the starters! And that excludes Miami's rarely playing Zeller & injured Oladipo.

I think the only thing this year's final proves is that scouting & drafting of foreign players is more variable and more unknowns than Americans. Joker, Giannis and Luka all embody this.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I was counting Durant as #1, the Oden pick was ridiculous. Regardless splitting hairs.
Do an analysis of NBA history & titles by pick #, 1-15 it will show the higher the pick the greater title odds. Also true as I said bad team management will offset pick value Clippers continually screw up, Magic don't win a title despite getting Shaq & DHoward (but got to finals with each) but San Antonio does and will win titles when getting Duncan & Wemby
Even your own example doesn't work of LeBron coming back to Cleveland because the guy that made the winning shot in the decisive game also happened to be a #1 pick. Since you are 'giving credit' & counting for LeBron then adding Kyrie it counts twice!

So Cavaliers team that had 3 high draft lottery picks for its top 3 players, even though two of those players were on different teams three years prior to that title. Walk me through how the Timberwolves, who had a great draft pick in Kevin Love in 2008, benefitted from the Cavaliers winning a championship in 2016.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Can someone explain all of this back and forth on high draft picks? Good teams don't usually get high draft picks. Boston fleeced the Nets and had two picks hit in back to back years. Most picks, even high lottery picks, don't end up becoming "stars". You hope they will or at least you get a rotation guy. That's the nature of the draft.

Lots of solid players go late in the draft or are undrafted. Occasionally, one is a star. Is there a formula? Sure - luck. Get really lucky. San Antonio had the ultimate luck when David Robinson got hurt and they landed the #1 pick and took Duncan. They also got lucky hitting on a French PG in Tony Parker. Bucks got lucky with Giannis. Denver with Jokic.

New CBA is going to end the three star super-team. You won't be able to have three max guys on one roster. So you're going to have to get lucky with a draft pick on the cheap around your two stars, or be really good at finding missed talent (like the Heat). Trading picks for big $ stars is going to become a losing proposition. A bunch of "max" guys are about to learn they aren't really max contract players. They's still make money, maybe $28M instead of $40m, but let's see how their egos handle it. Especially guys on the other side of about 32 years old. Even two max contracts is about to become a real challenge. They'll take up about 80% of the cap.

 

[Ratso]

 

[alphasigko]

Big East Refs again in Game 3

 

[Dogdeacon]

So Cavaliers team that had 3 high draft lottery picks for its top 3 players, even though two of those players were on different teams three years prior to that title. Walk me through how the Timberwolves, who had a great draft pick in Kevin Love in 2008, benefitted from the Cavaliers winning a championship in 2016.

The Cavs & Wolves are adults and mutually consented to a trade.

 

[alphasigko]

Hack Fest by Miami on Joker and no calls

 

[CTBasketball]

This arena needs the $100M more than the XL Center.

 

[superjohn]

Jokic is breaking so many records this playoffs, it's really a joy to watch.

Huge game for Braun.

 

[superjohn]

66, 31, and 20 from Jokic and Murray. Is that good?

30 point triple doubles for both of them. Is that good?

 

[HuskyHawk]

Jokic is breaking so many records this playoffs, it's really a joy to watch.

Huge game for Braun.

Didn't watch but saw the write ups. Amazing stuff from Jokic. Excited for Braun, happy to root for a kid from OP. Sounds like Porter wasn't good.

 

[traitor71]

I've learned to never underestimate Miami, but they really need one big time guy to go with Butler. Adebayo is a very good player, but not that star level of player. The rest of their team are all guys you would want on your roster, but Miami has to rely on them too much. That just leaves them with zero margin for error against Denver.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Weird NBA thought of the day. Jaylen Brown pronounces his name "brawn". Christian Braun pronounces his name "brown" They should switch that up.

 

[REB1094]

I've learned to never underestimate Miami, but they really need one big time guy to go with Butler. Adebayo is a very good player, but not that star level of player. The rest of their team are all guys you would want on your roster, but Miami has to rely on them too much. That just leaves them with zero margin for error against Denver.

I think they were hoping for Herro and Bam to be a #2a and 2b. Kind of crazy to think that Miami is making this run while missing a 20ppg scorer. Heat culture is real

I’m a Nuggets fan so I hope Miami gets absolutely demolished the next 2 games, but it’s impossible to not have huge respect for every guy on that roster. Hopefully Denver isn’t underestimating them either, there’s still a lot of series left to be played

 

[Mr. French]

Weird NBA thought of the day. Jaylen Brown pronounces his name "brawn". Christian Braun pronounces his name "brown" They should switch that up.

Well that Braun->Brown one has always annoyed me, and I was about to type that.

I must say though I’ve never heard Jaylen say his name Braun. That’s just weird.

 

[aceboon]

Weird NBA thought of the day. Jaylen Brown pronounces his name "brawn". Christian Braun pronounces his name "brown" They should switch that up.

I've never heard Jaylen Brown pronounced like that

 

[Improviser]

For whatever reason, some people choose to have their name pronounced other than the way it is commonly pronounced. Who knows why??

Carl Braun was a BB player from the 50's and his name was pronounced "Brawn," as the letter combination calls for.

I knew somebody whose last name was Fink, and he pronounced it Finn. I guess he liked the way Finn sounded.

 

[Dogdeacon]

I've learned to never underestimate Miami, but they really need one big time guy to go with Butler. Adebayo is a very good player, but not that star level of player. The rest of their team are all guys you would want on your roster, but Miami has to rely on them too much. That just leaves them with zero margin for error against Denver.

Partially true while also true that Miami works because of team buy-in, shifting malleable parts and a non-star mentality even by Jimmy.

The two better stars answer didn’t work for PHX or LA AND of course Miami would have to give up some very good parts like PHX just did to get that 2nd star. A catch-22 is that Bam is the only player they could have offered to fetch a Durant level star. It is impossible to project b/c they’ve been better without Hero, but arguably one more scorer like him could be enough to steal the series from Denver’s two superior stats. Though probably not as Ultimately & historically large majority of NBA championships boil down to who has the best player and that’s undeniably Jokic right now.

 

[HuskyWarrior611]

Partially true while also true that Miami works because of team buy-in, shifting malleable parts and a non-star mentality even by Jimmy.

The two better stars answer didn’t work for PHX or LA AND of course Miami would have to give up some very good parts like PHX just did to get that 2nd star. A catch-22 is that Bam is the only player they could have offered to fetch a Durant level star. It is impossible to project b/c they’ve been better without Hero, but arguably one more scorer like him could be enough to steal the series from Denver’s two superior stats. Though probably not as Ultimately & historically large majority of NBA championships boil down to who has the best player and that’s undeniably Jokic right now.

Dame has openly said if there was any team he can join it’d be Miami.

Would be a great fit if they can figure out how to package Herro, picks, and literally anyone besides Bam and Jimmy for him. Don't know if guys like Herro and Duncan’s value are as high as they once were.

 

[EZPass]