Iowa vs. Iowa State

[GamecockFam]

Everyone is only on the periphery of the conversation at this point if we’re going to analyze records. Paige and Caitlin are the obvious candidates when you’re wearing a turban and thinking about things like destiny. At some point, you’ve got to decide whether to wear an accountant’s visor or a turban.

 

[Plebe]

If Clark isn't POY, then who is?

Rori Harmon is in the mix if she continues what she's been doing. 27 points and 13 assists vs UConn, nearly a triple double last night vs Arizona.

The X factor in the POY race is team success. Without Iowa's deep run in the tournament to go with some ridiculously amazing individual performances, Clark would not have won it last season.

 

[bballnut90]

Everyone is only on the periphery of the conversation at this point if we’re going to analyze records. Paige and Caitlin are the obvious candidates when you’re wearing a turban and thinking about things like destiny. At some point, you’ve got to decide whether to wear an accountant’s visor or a turban.

Paige probably isn’t a 1st Team All American at this juncture. UCONN is the #17 team at this juncture and players like Clark, Watkins, Brink, Betts, Pili, Harmon, Lee, etc are having better seasons to start.

 

[Surly1]

Paige probably isn’t a 1st Team All American at this juncture. UCONN is the #17 team at this juncture and players like Clark, Watkins, Brink, Betts, Pili, Harmon, Lee, etc are having better seasons to start.

I have to disagree with you regarding Paige. For the season, she's averaging close to 20 pts per game, shooting 52.4% overall, 47.1% from 3-pt land and shooting 80% from the foul line. If we look at individual games, she's averaging almost 24 against the top tier teams (NC St, MD, UCLA, Kansas, Texas & NC). The only game where she didn't score 20 was against Texas. In games versus Dayton, Minnesota & Ball St, where she wasn't needed, she put up 8, 12 & 15 respectively. So, she clearly wasn't padding her numbers. Additionally, there have been only 2 games where she's taken more than 15 shots.

Furthermore, Paige is only going to improve after missing the previous season. As her teammates get acclimated to her, the team will get better. I expect to see more of her deadly pull-up jumper as the season progresses, and she'll continue to pick her spots against better competition to score more.

By the end of the season, can you envision another guard, besides Caitlin, who should be on the first-team All-American? UConn will win the Big East and still has showcase games against ND & SC for Paige to remind the country that she has returned.

 

[Bone Dog]

Paige probably isn’t a 1st Team All American at this juncture. UCONN is the #17 team at this juncture and players like Clark, Watkins, Brink, Betts, Pili, Harmon, Lee, etc are having better seasons to start.

If I take @GamecockFam's argument seriously ("But honestly nobody's portfolio is complete at this point in the season so it's all up in the air") and I do, then no one is a 1st team All American at this juncture. What I haven't forgotten or called into question yet, is that none of these awards are handed out until the end of the season. Until then, it's all just prophecy. Citing stats and current records here is like trying to get a refund from someone who's looking into a crystal ball because you don't like the future she sees.

Now, I have nothing against looking into crystal balls. I do it all the time, and so are all the rest of us who are speculating about AAs and NPOYs. There's little else to do at this point in December. The data we have access to is mainly based on OOC games against cupcakes. The surprise revelations occur in such games only when they aren't the blowouts we expect. Take the Iowa-ISU game. This should have been a blowout -- one of the premier guards on a team stacked with guards against a team whose pg is out with an injury, whose backups are quite weak and whose only offensive tactic in the second half was to run a very slow developing clearout for Addy Brown. That this wasn't a blowout speaks volumes about where Iowa really is these days.

I don't mean Iowa won't get better. I'm sure they'll come back into form. But if we want to cherry pick data from Caitlin's hi-volume low percentage shooting on this particular evening and pretend we're not looking into a crystal ball, then I've got a bridge for sale. So, let's all look into our crystal balls and tell everyone what we see, because that's half the fun in December. Here's what I see: Paige and Caitlin will turn out to be the main contenders for NPOY in the end. Why do I think this? Because Caitlin's offensive numbers will improve as the rest of her team gels around her. Paige is already having 11-14 shooting nights against teams better than ISU and a team just as discombobulated as Iowa seems to be. She's shooting over 50% for the season even though she was wearing a thumb splint until recently. But this isn't data -- it's crystal ball evidence of where her heart is. Anyone who watches the UNC game, or the MD game can't help but see that Paige is deadly serious about winning, at least as serious as Caitlin appears to be.

 

[GamecockFam]

I'm not even sure that Caitlin will win NPOY because of her inefficiency so far this season. Honestly the race feels very wide open to me. Caitlin and Paige will both get the benefit of the doubt since they are prior winners. Just looking at the most dominant players in the current top ten gives you a list of: Caitlin Clark, Rori Harmon, Juju Watkins, and Cameron Brink. And that leaves out other exceptional players like Lauren Betts, Alissa Pili, and Hannah Hidalgo. I would argue that we don't have enough data to make an even reasonable prediction. The dust will start to settle around conference play and I think we can start making more reasonable predictions in January.

 

[Bone Dog]

more reasonable predictions

I love this phrase -- it's called trying to have it both ways.

 

[GamecockFam]

I love this phrase -- it's called trying to have it both ways.

More data = higher chance of accuracy when making predictions. Also, with more data there tends to be less volatility in trends. So there is a tipping point where more data will do little to move the needle. I'm not going to make any predictions at this point in the season until the volatility in th data settles down and teams that had easy schedules start playing conference competition.

 

[Bone Dog]

More data = higher chance of accuracy when making predictions. Also, with more data there tends to be less volatility in trends. So there is a tipping point where more data will do little to move the needle. I'm not going to make any predictions at this point in the season until the volatility in th data settles down and teams that had easy schedules start playing conference competition.

This is where we part ways. Since the data is too noisy at this point to draw any reasonable conclusions, I’m putting on my turban. I’m not going to refrain from imagining how things will play out. I’m a fan, after all!

In December, accuracy is almost a meaningless concept. Talk to me in February and I’ll be all in on your data analysis. Until then, buckle up, because we’re going on a flight of fancy!

I had a pretty good mixed metaphor going there, doncha think?

 

[visitingcock]

If I take @GamecockFam's argument seriously ("But honestly nobody's portfolio is complete at this point in the season so it's all up in the air") and I do, then no one is a 1st team All American at this juncture. What I haven't forgotten or called into question yet, is that none of these awards are handed out until the end of the season. Until then, it's all just prophecy. Citing stats and current records here is like trying to get a refund from someone who's looking into a crystal ball because you don't like the future she sees.

Now, I have nothing against looking into crystal balls. I do it all the time, and so are all the rest of us who are speculating about AAs and NPOYs. There's little else to do at this point in December. The data we have access to is mainly based on OOC games against cupcakes. The surprise revelations occur in such games only when they aren't the blowouts we expect. Take the Iowa-ISU game. This should have been a blowout -- one of the premier guards on a team stacked with guards against a team whose pg is out with an injury, whose backups are quite weak and whose only offensive tactic in the second half was to run a very slow developing clearout for Addy Brown. That this wasn't a blowout speaks volumes about where Iowa really is these days.

I don't mean Iowa won't get better. I'm sure they'll come back into form. But if we want to cherry pick data from Caitlin's hi-volume low percentage shooting on this particular evening and pretend we're not looking into a crystal ball, then I've got a bridge for sale. So, let's all look into our crystal balls and tell everyone what we see, because that's half the fun in December. Here's what I see: Paige and Caitlin will turn out to be the main contenders for NPOY in the end. Why do I think this? Because Caitlin's offensive numbers will improve as the rest of her team gels around her. Paige is already having 11-14 shooting nights against teams better than ISU and a team just as discombobulated as Iowa seems to be. She's shooting over 50% for the season even though she was wearing a thumb splint until recently. But this isn't data -- it's crystal ball evidence of where her heart is. Anyone who watches the UNC game, or the MD game can't help but see that Paige is deadly serious about winning, at least as serious as Caitlin appears to be.

Where’s @Carnac when you need him ?

 

[GamecockFam]

Is this article proof that analysts come to this board for ideas? Which one of you is Alexa Philippou?

Who are Caitlin Clark's biggest challengers for player of the year?

If the path to Cleveland and the NCAA championship look wide open, so too does the race for national player of the year. Here are the top candidates.

www.espn.com

 

[ISUnorth]

I finally got around to watching the Iowa-ISU game. The broadcast was entirely setup to celebrate Caitlin breaking 3,000 pts, but I had zero interest in this. Rebecca Lobo paid attention to Audi Crooks, who was also the main interest for me. I watched a couple of her HS games and was very impressed by her strength and stamina. She regularly played entire games in HS and was the go-to player on almost every play. If they were pressed, they’d use her to get the ball up the court.

ISU plays her about 20 mins/g because they’re worried about her stamina at D1 speed. This may be reasonable, though I expect she’ll be up to 25-30 mins soon enough. She has a soft touch and is a natural rebounder. Like Alyssa Pili, she has really strong hands and doesn’t often fumble the ball. She’s not as quick as Pili, but she’s about 3” taller. It looks like ISU doesn’t have the guard play to really make use of Crooks. You’d think they’d run screens off her as much as they can. But their guards don’t seem to know how to use a screen. Maybe when Emily Ryan returns this will change. If ISU is going to do anything this year, it will depend on Crooks.

Crooks has gotten in better shape than I thought she could this early. With Isnelle Natabou now the backup center she can go full out for as long as she can and than get a breather. I do like your Alyssa Pili comparison. It's the closest to current player comparison, otherwise you have to go back to a Courtney Paris? Crooks has crazy good hands which makes up for her not being a jumper.

Conference play will be interesting. Crooks gets a lot of attention but Addy Brown might be the Big 12 freshman of the year. So far Brown is at 14.3 PTS 8.7 REB 5.7 AST. Crazy assist numbers for a forward. Anxious to see my team in conference play and in some actual road games. The freshman are doing great but all of the travel plus school during conference is going to be a BIG change for them.