I think many expect more from our freshmen in terms of playing time than is realistic. They probably believe that because they see plenty of talent and skill in these players, I get that. Geno, however, has a track record of using more short rotations than long ones. He should have 7 returning proven players. Do I think he will use more than that? Yes, but he wouldn't have to. If everybody was healthy, he could barely cover the available minutes with those 7, so the question for any newcomer is not just are they good players, but whose minutes would you reduce to give them playing time.
Now I am very much in the camp for a big rotation, players being able to go all out all the time, and not having to fear foul trouble as much as with a very limited rotation. Remember this year Geno had one #15 recruit that he only used if he had to, even with her being in her second season. He had another #5 recruit that was in the rotation for much of the season, but had a few games when he wasn't, or wasn't used in the first or second half of a game. If Geno thought the difference in the level of play was significant, he would rather have a tired player, saving energy here and there, and having to be conservative on defense due to potential foul issues, than use a fresh lesser player.
So IMO there is a possible path to the rotation for everyone in this class, but also the possibility that none of them will be in it, although I think that is pretty unlikely. The chances and opportunity for Jana for example, are probably much higher than for KK or Ashlynn and it has nothing to do with who is the better player. There are no proven C types returning. Both Jana and Ice are candidates if not to start to at least be a backup there. I would like to see one of those two start, and the other be the principle backup, and keep Aaliyah at her natural position.
Although very unlikely, one possible way that neither of the big newcomers gets rotation time would be if Geno went smallball with Aaliyah at the 5, Aubrey at the 4, and used Caroline at the 4 for backup minutes, including some time with Aubrey at the 5, but if Aaliyah plays mostly the 5, we most probably have to add Ayanna, Ice or Jana to the mix, and yes I am not including Ayanna as one of the 7 locks to be in the rotation. She was barely in this year, and next year Aubrey would appear to be next on the depth chart behind Aaliyah since the additions and return to health in the backcourt will allow here to be available the play more minutes at the 4. In addition Ayanna faces possible competition from Ice and Jana who may be needed more at the 5 but can both play the 4.
KK and Ashlynn may make Geno play them, and they probably get some injury opportunities, but if healthy, who do you take out to play them. With the 5 perimeter options (including Aubrey some here), you could have Nika and Paige cover all of the minutes at the 1, Azzi, Paige and Caroline handle all of the 2 minutes, and Paige, Caroline and Aubrey play all of the 3 minutes. You could bring Caroline or Aubrey in for any of the other players, if for Nika you just move to the point. So if everyone is healthy whose minutes get reduced for one of the newcomers? Paige, Azzi, Nika, Caroline, Aubrey? The point is it is a high bar, and Geno could stick with those 5 on the perimeter.
Any injury of course opens up opportunities, and I am hoping that Geno reaches the conclusion that KK and Ashlynn are close enough to some of the 5 ahead of them, that replacing a tired player with one almost as good is a good thing, and that confidence in an expanded roster will enable a quicker pace and more pressing. I think there is also an opportunity for some limited time because Aubrey may become a sub at the 3 and 4, and will not be available all the time to help out on the perimeter. Lots of time would open up for KK or Ashlynn if the newcomers upfront were not ready and Geno had to start Aaliyah at the 5 and Aubrey at the 4.
As for Q, I think it will be a learning year because she has many candidates ahead of her, but the just mentioned possibility of starting Aaliyah and Aubrey upfront would open up a chance for her to get some minutes at the 3
I don't think a rotation beyond 7 is a given, largely because of Geno's tendencies. I do think it is quite likely to be 9 or more, mostly because I expect two out of the three of Ayanna, Ice and Jana to be in it because of the openings at the 5. If KK and or Ashlynn can force their way into some minutes, maybe we could go to 10 or 11 and run and press a great deal. I am hoping for that, but nobody comes in with guaranteed minutes or a spot in the rotation. There are ways Geno could avoid using any of them, and scenarios where all of them could find their way into the rotation depending on how positional competition plays out.
For Jana and Ice (since she is first year too) the opportunities are the greatest, KK and Ashlynn have a little higher bar to clear, and Q looks like a development year, but after the last two years expecting health almost seems like a foolish assumption. Regardless if we do have another rash of injuries, this year's team has plenty of really good options. The players in the rotation will be very good, but a couple of players just outside of the rotation should be as well.
