shizzle787
King Shizzle DCCLXXXVII of the Cesspool
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- Oct 19, 2015
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IMO I don't think that ND is joining the B1G for at least another TV cycle. Therefore, it is unlikely the membership of the B1G, ACC, or SEC will change. With that being said, I think the Big 12 and Pac-12 TV numbers will be similar, and neither will raid the other.
Here is the realistic scenario that I believe benefits us the most as an independent: SDSU and SMU to the Pac-12. Those are the two schools mentioned by Stewart Mandel to be most likely to join the Pac-12 if it expands (both would likely getting reduced shares to make it worth while for the other 10).
If this realignment occurs, neither the AAC or MW would be able to raid the other. The MW would likely add UTEP to get back to 12. Things in the American, however, could get very interesting. Navy joined the American with the express purpose of playing Texas schools SMU and Houston. They also wanted to muck it up with schools like UCF, UConn, and Cincy. If SMU leaves, all of these schools will be gone. Rice might be appealing to Navy but I don't really believe UNT or UTSA are. I also don't think they have much interest in the C-USA schools that joined. It would not surprise me in the least if Navy decided to go back to being independent. They would likely not have to pay a full exit fee as they are football-only members. I do believe that CBS Sports or NBC (maybe using USA network and Peacock) would give Navy 3-4 million per year in TV rights for their home games. The AAC is currently at 7 million, but if SMU leaves (on top of the other departures), I think their contract gets halved at least, especially if ESPN grabs the Pac-12 contract in full.
This gets me to the second part of the equation: Temple. Does Temple really want to play in a league where they have absolutely no regional rivals? The A-10 (their potential basketball home) will only pay 500,000 a year but is a 3 million loss in TV worth it (probably less than that when you factor in ESPN+ production costs) to get their fanbase back. I think it very well could be.
If these two programs (Navy and Temple) became independent in football, it would greatly help us out. We could conceivably play Army, Navy, Temple, UMass, and an FCS opponent every year the second half of the season, and P5 home and homes the first half with one or two G5 home and homes sprinkled in.
Here is the realistic scenario that I believe benefits us the most as an independent: SDSU and SMU to the Pac-12. Those are the two schools mentioned by Stewart Mandel to be most likely to join the Pac-12 if it expands (both would likely getting reduced shares to make it worth while for the other 10).
If this realignment occurs, neither the AAC or MW would be able to raid the other. The MW would likely add UTEP to get back to 12. Things in the American, however, could get very interesting. Navy joined the American with the express purpose of playing Texas schools SMU and Houston. They also wanted to muck it up with schools like UCF, UConn, and Cincy. If SMU leaves, all of these schools will be gone. Rice might be appealing to Navy but I don't really believe UNT or UTSA are. I also don't think they have much interest in the C-USA schools that joined. It would not surprise me in the least if Navy decided to go back to being independent. They would likely not have to pay a full exit fee as they are football-only members. I do believe that CBS Sports or NBC (maybe using USA network and Peacock) would give Navy 3-4 million per year in TV rights for their home games. The AAC is currently at 7 million, but if SMU leaves (on top of the other departures), I think their contract gets halved at least, especially if ESPN grabs the Pac-12 contract in full.
This gets me to the second part of the equation: Temple. Does Temple really want to play in a league where they have absolutely no regional rivals? The A-10 (their potential basketball home) will only pay 500,000 a year but is a 3 million loss in TV worth it (probably less than that when you factor in ESPN+ production costs) to get their fanbase back. I think it very well could be.
If these two programs (Navy and Temple) became independent in football, it would greatly help us out. We could conceivably play Army, Navy, Temple, UMass, and an FCS opponent every year the second half of the season, and P5 home and homes the first half with one or two G5 home and homes sprinkled in.