A somewhat realistic realignment scenario we should be rooting for

[shizzle787]

IMO I don't think that ND is joining the B1G for at least another TV cycle. Therefore, it is unlikely the membership of the B1G, ACC, or SEC will change. With that being said, I think the Big 12 and Pac-12 TV numbers will be similar, and neither will raid the other.

Here is the realistic scenario that I believe benefits us the most as an independent: SDSU and SMU to the Pac-12. Those are the two schools mentioned by Stewart Mandel to be most likely to join the Pac-12 if it expands (both would likely getting reduced shares to make it worth while for the other 10).

If this realignment occurs, neither the AAC or MW would be able to raid the other. The MW would likely add UTEP to get back to 12. Things in the American, however, could get very interesting. Navy joined the American with the express purpose of playing Texas schools SMU and Houston. They also wanted to muck it up with schools like UCF, UConn, and Cincy. If SMU leaves, all of these schools will be gone. Rice might be appealing to Navy but I don't really believe UNT or UTSA are. I also don't think they have much interest in the C-USA schools that joined. It would not surprise me in the least if Navy decided to go back to being independent. They would likely not have to pay a full exit fee as they are football-only members. I do believe that CBS Sports or NBC (maybe using USA network and Peacock) would give Navy 3-4 million per year in TV rights for their home games. The AAC is currently at 7 million, but if SMU leaves (on top of the other departures), I think their contract gets halved at least, especially if ESPN grabs the Pac-12 contract in full.

This gets me to the second part of the equation: Temple. Does Temple really want to play in a league where they have absolutely no regional rivals? The A-10 (their potential basketball home) will only pay 500,000 a year but is a 3 million loss in TV worth it (probably less than that when you factor in ESPN+ production costs) to get their fanbase back. I think it very well could be.

If these two programs (Navy and Temple) became independent in football, it would greatly help us out. We could conceivably play Army, Navy, Temple, UMass, and an FCS opponent every year the second half of the season, and P5 home and homes the first half with one or two G5 home and homes sprinkled in.

 

[HuskyDogArt]

IMO I don't think that ND is joining the B1G for at least another TV cycle. Therefore, it is unlikely the membership of the B1G, ACC, or SEC will change. With that being said, I think the Big 12 and Pac-12 TV numbers will be similar, and neither will raid the other.

Here is the realistic scenario that I believe benefits us the most as an independent: SDSU and SMU to the Pac-12. Those are the two schools mentioned by Stewart Mandel to be most likely to join the Pac-12 if it expands (both would likely getting reduced shares to make it worth while for the other 10).

If this realignment occurs, neither the AAC or MW would be able to raid the other. The MW would likely add UTEP to get back to 12. Things in the American, however, could get very interesting. Navy joined the American with the express purpose of playing Texas schools SMU and Houston. They also wanted to muck it up with schools like UCF, UConn, and Cincy. If SMU leaves, all of these schools will be gone. Rice might be appealing to Navy but I don't really believe UNT or UTSA are. I also don't think they have much interest in the C-USA schools that joined. It would not surprise me in the least if Navy decided to go back to being independent. They would likely not have to pay a full exit fee as they are football-only members. I do believe that CBS Sports or NBC (maybe using USA network and Peacock) would give Navy 3-4 million per year in TV rights for their home games. The AAC is currently at 7 million, but if SMU leaves (on top of the other departures), I think their contract gets halved at least, especially if ESPN grabs the Pac-12 contract in full.

This gets me to the second part of the equation: Temple. Does Temple really want to play in a league where they have absolutely no regional rivals? The A-10 (their potential basketball home) will only pay 500,000 a year but is a 3 million loss in TV worth it (probably less than that when you factor in ESPN+ production costs) to get their fanbase back. I think it very well could be.

If these two programs (Navy and Temple) became independent in football, it would greatly help us out. We could conceivably play Army, Navy, Temple, UMass, and an FCS opponent every year the second half of the season, and P5 home and homes the first half with one or two G5 home and homes sprinkled in.

It is an interest thought. I think you might see a few cracks forming in the G 5 conferences. I think you might see a G5 conference disappear by 2035.

 

[AZHuskiePop]

IMO I don't think that ND is joining the B1G for at least another TV cycle. Therefore, it is unlikely the membership of the B1G, ACC, or SEC will change. With that being said, I think the Big 12 and Pac-12 TV numbers will be similar, and neither will raid the other.

Here is the realistic scenario that I believe benefits us the most as an independent: SDSU and SMU to the Pac-12. Those are the two schools mentioned by Stewart Mandel to be most likely to join the Pac-12 if it expands (both would likely getting reduced shares to make it worth while for the other 10).

If this realignment occurs, neither the AAC or MW would be able to raid the other. The MW would likely add UTEP to get back to 12. Things in the American, however, could get very interesting. Navy joined the American with the express purpose of playing Texas schools SMU and Houston. They also wanted to muck it up with schools like UCF, UConn, and Cincy. If SMU leaves, all of these schools will be gone. Rice might be appealing to Navy but I don't really believe UNT or UTSA are. I also don't think they have much interest in the C-USA schools that joined. It would not surprise me in the least if Navy decided to go back to being independent. They would likely not have to pay a full exit fee as they are football-only members. I do believe that CBS Sports or NBC (maybe using USA network and Peacock) would give Navy 3-4 million per year in TV rights for their home games. The AAC is currently at 7 million, but if SMU leaves (on top of the other departures), I think their contract gets halved at least, especially if ESPN grabs the Pac-12 contract in full.

This gets me to the second part of the equation: Temple. Does Temple really want to play in a league where they have absolutely no regional rivals? The A-10 (their potential basketball home) will only pay 500,000 a year but is a 3 million loss in TV worth it (probably less than that when you factor in ESPN+ production costs) to get their fanbase back. I think it very well could be.

If these two programs (Navy and Temple) became independent in football, it would greatly help us out. We could conceivably play Army, Navy, Temple, UMass, and an FCS opponent every year the second half of the season, and P5 home and homes the first half with one or two G5 home and homes sprinkled in.

UConn only went Indy because BB landed in the conference with the best media deal .
Were is Temple going to go?
i don’t believe SMU will go to the PAC or Navy go Indy
Until the final B1G teams are named it could go in multiple directections

 

[coachcap]

IMO I don't think that ND is joining the B1G for at least another TV cycle. Therefore, it is unlikely the membership of the B1G, ACC, or SEC will change. With that being said, I think the Big 12 and Pac-12 TV numbers will be similar, and neither will raid the other.

Here is the realistic scenario that I believe benefits us the most as an independent: SDSU and SMU to the Pac-12. Those are the two schools mentioned by Stewart Mandel to be most likely to join the Pac-12 if it expands (both would likely getting reduced shares to make it worth while for the other 10).

If this realignment occurs, neither the AAC or MW would be able to raid the other. The MW would likely add UTEP to get back to 12. Things in the American, however, could get very interesting. Navy joined the American with the express purpose of playing Texas schools SMU and Houston. They also wanted to muck it up with schools like UCF, UConn, and Cincy. If SMU leaves, all of these schools will be gone. Rice might be appealing to Navy but I don't really believe UNT or UTSA are. I also don't think they have much interest in the C-USA schools that joined. It would not surprise me in the least if Navy decided to go back to being independent. They would likely not have to pay a full exit fee as they are football-only members. I do believe that CBS Sports or NBC (maybe using USA network and Peacock) would give Navy 3-4 million per year in TV rights for their home games. The AAC is currently at 7 million, but if SMU leaves (on top of the other departures), I think their contract gets halved at least, especially if ESPN grabs the Pac-12 contract in full.

This gets me to the second part of the equation: Temple. Does Temple really want to play in a league where they have absolutely no regional rivals? The A-10 (their potential basketball home) will only pay 500,000 a year but is a 3 million loss in TV worth it (probably less than that when you factor in ESPN+ production costs) to get their fanbase back. I think it very well could be.

If these two programs (Navy and Temple) became independent in football, it would greatly help us out. We could conceivably play Army, Navy, Temple, UMass, and an FCS opponent every year the second half of the season, and P5 home and homes the first half with one or two G5 home and homes sprinkled in.

Addendum: The SEC is known for playing an out of conference game late in the season. UConn could pick up a money road game down south which also adds flexibility in scheduling.

 

[Zissou]

If these two programs (Navy and Temple) became independent in football, it would greatly help us out. We could conceivably play Army, Navy, Temple, UMass, and an FCS opponent every year the second half of the season, and P5 home and homes the first half with one or two G5 home and homes sprinkled in.

UConn, Army, Navy, Temple, and UMass is a nice scheduling core. Have Nova and Delaware move up to FBS and that’s 7 teams for an Alliance of Eastern Independence for both scheduling and a TV deal.

A football-only conference isn’t allowed by current NCAA rules, but the only downside to an Alliance vs a conference is there could not be a conference championship game.

A seven team Alliance is a nice balance of regular regional scheduling for 1/2 of your games (and some stability of getting your minimum home game schedule) and 1/2 your games open for P5 deals and money games.

 

[Zissou]

Another scenario is Big East expansion to add Kansas, K State, Iowa State, Temple, and Cincy as full members.

This fills out and balances the east/west footprint.

East 8: UConn, Providence, St Johns, Seton Hall, Nova, Georgetown, Temple, Cincy.

West 8: Marquette, DePaul, X, Butler, Creighton, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State.

For football:
Kansas, K State, Iowa State, UConn, Temple, Cincy and Nova. Add Army, Navy, and UMass as football only members for a 10 team Big East football conference.

Keep the TV contract for football separate from the base conference TV contract to mitigate the conflict of the old Big East model.

Expect $6M per program for the hoops based TV contract.

Army / Navy game is ~$4/M per program. Keep that separate.

Fox TV football contract: Kansas, K State, Iowa State, and Cincy get $20M each. The other 6 get $5 each. That’s $110M per year averaging $11M per program, a fair amount for Fox to spend.

Fox wins: they get an enhanced Big East basketball schedule with Kansas and added games for a very fair price. They get football at a very fair price. They lock up a piece of the east coast market with a unique new configuration.

Big 12 schools that are added win: they get $20M + $6M which exceeds their projected B12 value after the Texas and OU departures. They also get a more regional base for all sports.

Big East basketball-only schools win. Kansas ups the conference value and the east/west division model is regionally strong.

UConn and Nova win. Although not an equal football payout share, they have a football conference with much improved revenue. $6M + $5M.

UMass, Army, and Navy win. A football home with a better schedule and more revenue.

Temple wins big! Full membership for basketball and football. $11M.

 

[Zissou]

B12: Baylor, TCU, Texas Tech, Houston, OK State, WVU, BYU, and UCF. Add USF and SMU for ten, consider adding 2 more to get to 12.

 

[pepband99]

Addendum: The SEC is known for playing an out of conference game late in the season. UConn could pick up a money road game down south which also adds flexibility in scheduling.

No chance, at least not one we want. They do indeed play OOC on a given open weekend, but it's cupcake city (sun belt, CUSA, etc, and usually not good ones). I don't want to be on that menu, even if we are there right now.

EG - this year's "Cupcake Saturday" in the SEC:

SEC Football Schedule Week 12
Saturday, November 19, 2022
Austin Peay at Alabama
Ole Miss at Arkansas
Western Kentucky at Auburn
Georgia at Kentucky
UAB at LSU (OK - this is unfair, UAB is pretty darned good, but wasn't due to be when this got scheduled)
ETSU at Mississippi State
New Mexico State at Missouri
Tennessee at South Carolina
UMass at Texas A&M
Florida at Vanderbilt

 

[Slasher]

Another scenario is Big East expansion to add Kansas, K State, Iowa State, Temple, and Cincy as full members.

This fills out and balances the east/west footprint.

East 8: UConn, Providence, St Johns, Seton Hall, Nova, Georgetown, Temple, Cincy.

West 8: Marquette, DePaul, X, Butler, Creighton, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State.

For football:
Kansas, K State, Iowa State, UConn, Temple, Cincy and Nova. Add Army, Navy, and UMass as football only members for a 10 team Big East football conference.

Keep the TV contract for football separate from the base conference TV contract to mitigate the conflict of the old Big East model.

Expect $6M per program for the hoops based TV contract.

Army / Navy game is ~$4/M per program. Keep that separate.

Fox TV football contract: Kansas, K State, Iowa State, and Cincy get $20M each. The other 6 get $5 each. That’s $110M per year averaging $11M per program, a fair amount for Fox to spend.

Fox wins: they get an enhanced Big East basketball schedule with Kansas and added games for a very fair price. They get football at a very fair price. They lock up a piece of the east coast market with a unique new configuration.

Big 12 schools that are added win: they get $20M + $6M which exceeds their projected B12 value after the Texas and OU departures. They also get a more regional base for all sports.

Big East basketball-only schools win. Kansas ups the conference value and the east/west division model is regionally strong.

UConn and Nova win. Although not an equal football payout share, they have a football conference with much improved revenue. $6M + $5M.

UMass, Army, and Navy win. A football home with a better schedule and more revenue.

Temple wins big! Full membership for basketball and football. $11M.

This is not plausible in the current world. $25M for tv rights for those Big 12 schools might be "ok" but they would lose the $10-15M a year they get from the CFP. Part of what makes the P5 the P5 is the tons of money they get from bowls and the playoff. TV money is only a piece of the equation.

 

[Zissou]

This is not plausible in the current world. $25M for tv rights for those Big 12 schools might be "ok" but they would lose the $10-15M a year they get from the CFP. Part of what makes the P5 the P5 is the tons of money they get from bowls and the playoff. TV money is only a piece of the equation.

The current world is not the future world. The B12 does not have much control over the future conditions (or payout) of the CFP.

 

[FfldCntyFan]

Zissou, it's great that you want No a to move up I football but realistically, is there anyone who is in a position to start the process that also wants this? There were two significant opportunities (when UConn first moved up, shortly before the raid that took Cuse & Pitt) where Nova basically said "thanks but no thanks". I'm not sure there is any real desire there to move football to a higher level.

 

[Zissou]

Zissou, it's great that you want No a to move up I football but realistically, is there anyone who is in a position to start the process that also wants this? There were two significant opportunities (when UConn first moved up, shortly before the raid that took Cuse & Pitt) where Nova basically said "thanks but no thanks". I'm not sure there is any real desire there to move football to a higher level.

It would have to be for a specific alignment, and just not acting on an independent aspiration. I’ve posted the history before - I’ll copy it here for reference in this discussion.

The bigger pieces of this are Kansas and a football solution (with or without Nova)

 

[Zissou]

Zissou, it's great that you want No a to move up I football but realistically, is there anyone who is in a position to start the process that also wants this? There were two significant opportunities (when UConn first moved up, shortly before the raid that took Cuse & Pitt) where Nova basically said "thanks but no thanks". I'm not sure there is any real desire there to move football to a higher level.

“Nova and UConn were invited up in the 1990s. UConn moved up and Nova declined. At the time Nova’s stadium was an issue (12,500) and the administration was weak on sports.

By 2010 the Big East was in need of Nova to move up. Nova was invited, but instead of being ready or proactively planning for the potential opportunity, Nova didn’t know how to respond. The AD was a guy promoted up from running the ticket office and was in way over his head. The President (same one as today) was a theatre guy with no interest in sports, and he would openly talk down sports. Having Jay Wright was a very fortunate position for the basketball program. He built the program in spite of the lack of interest, and had a long leash because of the lack of interest.

Nova decided that it needed to produce a “study“ to respond to the invite. So it studied, and dithered, and discussed, and pondered. For over 6 months. While Nova dithered, the conference needed a member. TCU signed up. With a study complete and a recommendation to Nova’s leadership to accept the invite, a Board of Trustees meeting was set up to rubber stamp the move.

Unfortunately, the President and the AD completely mishandled the process. They were all patting themselves on the back and getting ready to formalize the move up, but they had not stayed close and informed with their conference peers. With TCU signed, the conference need was less. The invite was not still fresh and they didn’t even know it. The plan was to play in the nearby Philadelphia Union stadium (18,000). Pitt, WVU, and Rutgers conspired to withdraw the invite. Pitt was a leader in the politics. At the same time Pitt was screwing up the conf TV deal and also back channeling to the ACC for membership. No honor among conference presidents.

With an embarrassingly stale invite, the Nova BOT cancelled their vote. The rest is history.

Nova had won the FCS title in 2009 and was competitive with FBS programs like Temple.

While other programs in the conference conspired against Nova, the biggest fault in the failed move lies with Nova itself. The leadership was incompetent and fumbled the invite. In hindsight it wasn’t a scandal, because they didn’t care that they mismanaged it. It’s only football.”

 

[Zissou]

TLDR

Basketball, each team gets $6M TV:
East 8: UConn, Providence, St Johns, Seton Hall, Nova, Georgetown, Temple, Cincy.

West 8: Marquette, DePaul, X, Butler, Creighton, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State.

Football, TV revenue:
Kansas, K State, Iowa State, Cincy - $20M ea
UConn, Temple, Nova, UMass - $5M each
Army, Navy - $4M + $5M = $9M each

Then additional revenue from CFP, bowls, March Madness, etc.

 

[Hoophound]

I try to be both realistic and optimistic. I want to do bigger things than play UMass, Army, Navy, Temple, Nova and Delaware every year. If that's where football ends up, we can kiss basketball Final Fours goodbye.

I'm glad Mora and Benedict shoot higher than some of you. In the past week we even had someone suggest maybe we could get in the Sunbelt and play Coastal Carolina. We've even had people like the idea of CUSA for football only. Those scenarios are worse than killing off the program in my mind.

 

[Zissou]

I try to be both realistic and optimistic. I want to do bigger things than play UMass, Army, Navy, Temple, Nova and Delaware every year. If that's where football ends up, we can kiss basketball Final Fours goodbye.

I'm glad Mora and Benedict shoot higher than some of you. In the past week we even had someone suggest maybe we could get in the Sunbelt and play Coastal Carolina. We've even had people like the idea of CUSA for football only. Those scenarios are worse than killing off the program in my mind.

Jim Calhoun building a basketball powerhouse had nothing to do with your football program stature.

 

[Hoophound]

Jim Calhoun building a basketball powerhouse had nothing to do with your football program stature.

The future has everything to do with football. Basketball schools can't pay coaches and players without football money.

 

[History Geek]

The future has everything to do with football. Basketball schools can't pay coaches and players without football money.

Ding ding ding ding ding. We have a winner for the most concise and accurate argument why we have to stop being a poop show in football ASAP.

 

[Zissou]

The future has everything to do with football. Basketball schools can't pay coaches and players without football money.

 

[Zissou]

Ding ding ding ding ding. We have a winner for the most concise and accurate argument why we have to stop being a poop show in football ASAP.

Texas, Bama, and Clemson are going to rule hoops?

 

[History Geek]

Texas, Bama, and Clemson are going to rule hoops?

Maybe. They will have the cash in the future to try it they want to prioritize it. We (and Nova and the rest of the Big East for that matter) won’t.

 

[Hoophound]

View attachment 78030

I’m not sure of your point. Jay retired because he agrees. The party is just about over for non-football schools. Football revenue or a billionaire sugar daddy will be needed to fund basketball.

Look at it this way, if Jay Wright were offered $10,000,000 to coach UK, would Nova match it? That’s the problem. Big East schools paying a head coach 3 to maybe 5 mill will be at their limit. That is chump change in SEC and B1G land with the new payouts coming. We haven’t even talked about the players yet.

Personally, I think UConn is the only school in the Big East that can function in this model for a while. We have state funding, a large fan base and more NIL opportunity than everyone else. Even then, we know we need a change to survive down the road.

 

[Slasher]

TLDR

Basketball, each team gets $6M TV:
East 8: UConn, Providence, St Johns, Seton Hall, Nova, Georgetown, Temple, Cincy.

West 8: Marquette, DePaul, X, Butler, Creighton, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State.

Football, TV revenue:
Kansas, K State, Iowa State, Cincy - $20M ea
UConn, Temple, Nova, UMass - $5M each
Army, Navy - $4M + $5M = $9M each

Then additional revenue from CFP, bowls, March Madness, etc.

I just don't see why those 4 big 12 schools would be interested in this unless the ACC and the Big 12 don't exist anymore.

 

[CL82]

View attachment 78030

Did that guy used to coach at Villanova or something?

 

[Billy Jack]

The future has everything to do with football. Basketball schools can't pay coaches and players without football money.

Football is a very expensive sport to run. Most schools in FBS lose money on football. It’s not how much money you take in, it’s how much money is left over after you pay the bills.

Paying a lot of money to a basketball coach is not an automatic formula for establishing a winning program. Texas lured Shaka away from VCU after he got them to a Final Four with a big pay day. That didn’t get them to the promises land. Neither did grabbing Crean from Marquette after he got them to the Final Four get Indiana back to their old days.