Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid

[ucjoet]

Ever since the old Big East fell apart Penders has been saying the one sport where the AAC is better than the old Big East is in baseball. When last I checked only two teams had RPI's of over 100, Cincinnati (230) and East Carolina (111).

Yes the AAC is a pretty solid conference. Not going to be many ( if any) easy wins. But I believe we have a very solid pitching staff, if our bats stay consistent this will be a fun year

 

[dbmill]

Yes the AAC is a pretty solid conference. Not going to be many ( if any) easy wins. But I believe we have a very solid pitching staff, if our bats stay consistent this will be a fun year

It seems the only time the weekend starting pitching gets into any trouble is when fielding yips hit the team. On the plus side, this has not been an overly frequent occurrence this season. If the starting pitching can get into the late innings with a lead, Penders is obviously quite confident in going with the threesome of Over, Darras, and Ruotolo out of the bullpen to hold onto it. Hopefully someone like Radue will develop into someone Penders feels confident in giving important bullpen innings as well.

 

[ucjoet]

1-0 in below 6 game stretch. Need at least a 4-2 record. off to a good start with today's 18-1 win over Yale.



Yale (90) Win 1-0
CCSU (279)
Tulane (71)
Tulane (71)
Tulane (71)
BC (112)

 

[ucjoet]

current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
2- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

14 -8/ .636 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

62 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Another large margin of victory today vs a New England team. Beat CCSU17 - 2 this afternoon. Have first AAC series this weekend at Tulane.


Yale (90) Win 1-0
CCSU (279) Win 2-0
Tulane (71)
Tulane (71)
Tulane (71)
BC (112)

 

[ucjoet]

current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

15 -8/ .636 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

61 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

With 6 - 0 win last night, we have outscored opponents 41 - 3 over last 3 games. Would love to get at least 2 of next 3


Yale (90) Win 1-0
CCSU (279) Win 2-0
Tulane (71) Win 3-0
Tulane (71)
Tulane (71)
BC (112)

 

[ucjoet]

For first time this year we are either at or above projected goals ( green and blue highlights). Also for what it is worth the Warren Nolan site has its own ranking called the NPI. They currently rank us at 11th in country.



current record.. season goal

1 - 0 / 1.000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

16 -8/ .667 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

45 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

For first time this year we are either at or above projected goals ( green and blue highlights). Also for what it is worth the Warren Nolan site has its own ranking called the NPI. They currently rank us at 11th in country.



current record.. season goal

1 - 0 / 1.000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

16 -8/ .667 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

45 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

It's funny but I also noticed Nolan's NPI ranking of UConn last night. I was trying to find an explanation on the website of what went into it, but I couldn't find anything.

 

[huskypantz]

We are on a 15-4 run right now. 24 games in and we have not played a single game at home. As you guys have noted, our win margins have been gaudy lately. If Nolan incorporates trends or weighs road/neutral games higher, those metrics might elevate our ranking. I have to say, this team is starting to really impress me. It may not have the same "known" star power as when we had Barnes, Springer, Mazzilli etc but they are really clicking.

 

[dbmill]

We are on a 15-4 run right now. 24 games in and we have not played a single game at home. As you guys have noted, our win margins have been gaudy lately. If Nolan incorporates trends or weighs road/neutral games higher, those metrics might elevate our ranking. I have to say, this team is starting to really impress me. It may not have the same "known" star power as when we had Barnes, Springer, Mazzilli etc but they are really clicking.

Oh, I'm thinking that between Cross and Kay, the star power of this team will become known.

 

[ucjoet]

We are on a 15-4 run right now. 24 games in and we have not played a single game at home. As you guys have noted, our win margins have been gaudy lately. If Nolan incorporates trends or weighs road/neutral games higher, those metrics might elevate our ranking. I have to say, this team is starting to really impress me. It may not have the same "known" star power as when we had Barnes, Springer, Mazzilli etc but they are really clicking.

Just looked at NPI rankings again and saw a few interesting items, which on the surface do not make sense. Miami is ranked 13 in the NPI but have a better record than us at 18-8 and a strength of schedule of 4th. Our SOS is 145. Also Oklahoma state has a record of 17-8 and SOS of 14 , but their NPI is 18th.

So in both cases each team has a better record and a more difficult SOS, but we are ranked ahead of them in the NPI. Maybe it does take into account that we are trending better the these other teams.

 

[johnhuskies95]

Just looked at NPI rankings again and saw a few interesting items, which on the surface do not make sense. Miami is ranked 13 in the NPI but have a better record than us at 18-8 and a strength of schedule of 4th. Our SOS is 145. Also Oklahoma state has a record of 17-8 and SOS of 14 , but their NPI is 18th.

So in both cases each team has a better record and a more difficult SOS, but we are ranked ahead of them in the NPI. Maybe it does take into account that we are trending better the these other teams.

It could also have to do with margin of victory.

 

[ucjoet]

Did not get chance to follow game yesterday. Today will be same. Will update spreadsheet this evening. A win would be big today.

 

[ucjoet]

With split over last 2 games , we guaranteed that we would at least win 4 of the 6 games below. Next game is vs BC, which has a revised RPI of 55.




Yale (90) Win 1-0
CCSU (279) Win 2-0
Tulane (71) Win 3-0
Tulane (71) loss 3-1
Tulane (71) Win 4-1
BC (112)

 

[ucjoet]

current record.. season goal

2 - 1 / .667 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

17 -9/ .654 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

29 .... <61- RPI

10 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[dbmill]

current record.. season goal

2 - 1 / .667 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
3- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

17 -9/ .654 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

29 .... <61- RPI

10 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

Two road wins at Tulane gave UConn be a very nice bounce in the RPI. We're now at 27 according to the Warren Nolan site, and Tulane is now 90. The AAC has four teams with an RPI of 31 or better, and Memphis comes in after that at 66.

 

[ucjoet]

Two road wins at Tulane gave UConn be a very nice bounce in the RPI. We're now at 27 according to the Warren Nolan site, and Tulane is now 90. The AAC has four teams with an RPI of 31 or better, and Memphis comes in after that at 66.

Yes the AAC is a very competitive baseball league. Our next 2 AAC series are with USF at home with an RPI of 30, and at UCF with an RPI 0f 12. Also the next game is big playing BC which has a RPI of 55. Starting to really like this team. We will find out a lot about them over next couple of weeks.

 

[dbmill]

Yes the AAC is a very competitive baseball league. Our next 2 AAC series are with USF at home with an RPI of 30, and at UCF with an RPI 0f 12. Also the next game is big playing BC which has a RPI of 55. Starting to really like this team. We will find out a lot about them over next couple of weeks.

Given the RPI's in the AAC, there is a lot of opportunity for UConn to make the NCAA tournament if they do well. It also means a lot of potentially tough nail biting games in the coming weeks. I'm confident that UConn can do well, but they do need to cut back on the mistakes that have popped up in recent games for that to happen.

 

[ucjoet]

Given the RPI's in the AAC, there is a lot of opportunity for UConn to make the NCAA tournament if they do well. It also means a lot of potentially tough nail biting games in the coming weeks. I'm confident that UConn can do well, but they do need to cut back on the mistakes that have popped up in recent games for that to happen.

Yes the AAC will give us plenty of opportunities to help our RPI with some quality wins. I think another important factor is to not have many (or any) bad losses. These in general would be our New England games. Last year we lost 7 games to our NE foes. That can't happen this year. Those losses kill your RPI

 

[ucjoet]

Went 5 - 1 in 6 game set below. Will take that every-time.



Yale (90) Win 1-0
CCSU (279) Win 2-0
Tulane (71) Win 3-0
Tulane (71) loss 3-1
Tulane (71) Win 4-1
BC (112) Win 5-1

 

[ucjoet]

Nice come from behind victory today. Had not beaten BC since 2010. For second time this year we are at or above all expectation goals ( green and blue).




current record.. season goal

2 - 1 / .667 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
4- 0 / 1.000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

18 -9/ .667 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

30 .... <61- RPI

9 = NPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

The next 10 games are going to tell us a lot about this team. There are 4 games vs NE teams. There RPI'S range from 189 - 287. Thinking we should win all 4, but in baseball you never know. Then we have 2 AAC series. First at home vs USF with an RPI of 35. Then away vs UCF with an RPI of 14. Always hope to win each series which would get us to a minimum of 4-2 in those 2 series. But I would be satisfied with a split of 3-3.

That would get us to 7-3 over next 10 games. Definitely would keep us on pace for our 40 win goal.

 

[mets1090]

USF has a great record but does not appear to have any impressive wins. They swept Seton Hall (in Tampa) which is obviously nothing to scoff at, but other than that there isn't much. Not to say UConn has a ton of great wins, but if you believe stats are a better predictor of future results than past results would be, this is a series they should win. As always, a sweep would be great (especially with UCF looming next weekend).

Both teams out a lot but pair that with staffs that also have high strikeout rates. Get ready for more 9 or 10 strikeout games for both the offense and pitching.

 

[Oxford Bob]

The next 10 games are going to tell us a lot about this team. There are 4 games vs NE teams. There RPI'S range from 189 - 287. Thinking we should win all 4, but in baseball you never know. Then we have 2 AAC series. First at home vs USF with an RPI of 35. Then away vs UCF with an RPI of 14. Always hope to win each series which would get us to a minimum of 4-2 in those 2 series. But I would be satisfied with a split of 3-3.

That would get us to 7-3 over next 10 games. Definitely would keep us on pace for our 40 win goal.

Thats the key: don't get swept by good teams on road(must take 1), take at least 2 against the teams lower than you on road. Sweep lower teams at home and take 2 from the good ones. We do that and we should be in top 3 every year.