Wins needed for a NCAA at large bid

[ucjoet]

After a few posts below I have decided to start this thread again. It keeps me extra involved in the baseball season. Glad some of you enjoy it.

To recap, from little research I have done any team ( last 4 years) that had 40 wins and an RPI of less than 60 has received an At Large Bid. Obviously there can be exceptions. But I am going to use these as our goals.

Unfortunately the 2 RPI sites I visit have UConn losing to S C Upstate. So this has the RPI incorrectly lower then it should be. Hopefully this gets corrected. I look at the Warren Nolan and College Baseball insider sites. Both have us at 8 - 7 and an RPI of 104. If anyone knows a better sites for RPI info let me know. As for now I will use the RPI info (incorrect) from these sites.

Go Huskies vs Mighigan State and SMU ( hoops)



current record....... season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 3 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
8 -6 / .571 .... 11 - 8 / .579 - Other games

9 -6 / .600 ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

104 ......... <60- RPI

 

[killerBsaturn]

Great to see this thread back.

 

[ucjoet]

Great to see this thread back.

Thanks. We need to go 3 - 2 over next 5 games to meet my unscientific goal of 11 - 8 in "Other Games". The five games are below with teams current RPI.

Michigan state 86
wake forest 111
William and Mary 68
Fordham 238
Seton hall 193

 

[ucjoet]

The Warren Nolan site has corrected our record to 9 - 6 and revised the RPI ranking to 74.


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 3 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
8 -6 / .571 .... 11 - 8 / .579 - Other games

9 -6 / .600 ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

74 .... <60- RPI

 

[ucjoet]

Thanks. We need to go 3 - 2 over next 5 games to meet my unscientific goal of 11 - 8 in "Other Games". The five games are below with teams current RPI.

Michigan state 86
wake forest 111
William and Mary 68
Fordham 238
Seton hall 193

Actually missed that there are 2 games vs Seton Hall. So I am going to change my projections below. Since we just beat Michigan State. I am hoping we can go 4 - 2 over these last 6 "other games". Off to a good start.


Michigan state 86 ( win) 1 - 0
wake forest 111
William and Mary 68
Fordham 238
Seton hall 193
Seton hall 193

 

[ucjoet]

Nice win over Michigan State today. Pitching has really been excellent. Also very impressed that we seem to be making less mental errors ( baserunning mistakes, physical errors and being more patient at the plate).

I have decided to color code each category below.

Now go UConn vs SMU

Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
White = not yet applicable





current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
9 -6 / .600 .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

10 -6 / .625 ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

70 .... <60- RPI

 

[ucjoet]

Another thing I just noticed. We now have the second highest RPI in the AAC . Only UCF at 27 is higher.

 

[dbmill]

The Warren Nolan site has corrected our record to 9 - 6 and revised the RPI ranking to 74.


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 3 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
8 -6 / .571 .... 11 - 8 / .579 - Other games

9 -6 / .600 ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

74 .... <60- RPI

After your post last night I emailed Warren Nolan about giving the wrong team the victory. He sent me an email this afternoon saying he corrected the mistake. So if the site makes a mistake again, just send the site an email letting them know.

 

[ucjoet]

After your post last night I emailed Warren Nolan about giving the wrong team the victory. He sent me an email this afternoon saying he corrected the mistake. So if the site makes a mistake again, just send the site an email letting them know.

Thanks for the help and info. I will keep it in mind in the future. Also RPI has been updated. We are at the magic number of 60.




current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
9 -6 / .600 .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

10 -6 / .625 ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

60 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
White = not yet applicable

 

[mets1090]

I'm late to the party on this (haven't been on the board since last week) but thanks for doing this. I was thinking about slapping a similar post together myself with the same requirements as I also recall 40 wins being the magic mark.

Normally we dig ourselves into a hole in the first few weeks of the season presumably due to not being able to play outside until the season actually starts. It's nice to see the team get hot start after getting swept by a good FAU team.

The team has some pretty silly stats right now in a lot of categories. Off the top of my head they're stealing bases at an 85% clip as a team. Normally pretty much everyone gets the green light early on and we run ourselves out of innings but so far the results of been just the opposite. The pitching staff is striking out 9 per 9 innings which is pretty ridiculous. Even more ridiculous is UConn batters are also striking out at a clip of 9 per 9 innings. Hard to sustain the run production we've seen with those strikeout rates, but being both aggressive and efficient on the base paths goes a long way towards making every runner count.

Looking forward to seeing (1) if they can keep this up in conference play and (2) if the better teams they've already played end up being ranked consistently (FAU and KSU). It's always hard to tell how good these early season teams actually are until they have a solid 20-25 games under their belts.

Edit: FAU went 4-1 last week to improve to 18-3 on the season. I don't care what kind of competition you're playing that's not easy to do. KSU on the other hand went 1-3 last week to slide to 9-8 overall so it's looking like they might not live up to the preseason ranking.

 

[dbmill]

I'm late to the party on this (haven't been on the board since last week) but thanks for doing this. I was thinking about slapping a similar post together myself with the same requirements as I also recall 40 wins being the magic mark.

Normally we dig ourselves into a hole in the first few weeks of the season presumably due to not being able to play outside until the season actually starts. It's nice to see the team get hot start after getting swept by a good FAU team.

The team has some pretty silly stats right now in a lot of categories. Off the top of my head they're stealing bases at an 85% clip as a team. Normally pretty much everyone gets the green light early on and we run ourselves out of innings but so far the results of been just the opposite. The pitching staff is striking out 9 per 9 innings which is pretty ridiculous. Even more ridiculous is UConn batters are also striking out at a clip of 9 per 9 innings. Hard to sustain the run production we've seen with those strikeout rates, but being both aggressive and efficient on the base paths goes a long way towards making every runner count.

Looking forward to seeing (1) if they can keep this up in conference play and (2) if the better teams they've already played end up being ranked consistently (FAU and KSU). It's always hard to tell how good these early season teams actually are until they have a solid 20-25 games under their belts.

Edit: FAU went 4-1 last week to improve to 18-3 on the season. I don't care what kind of competition you're playing that's not easy to do. KSU on the other hand went 1-3 last week to slide to 9-8 overall so it's looking like they might not live up to the preseason ranking.

As far as the base running and stealing goes, this squad is easily the best in that area since I started following UConn baseball closely about 5 or so years ago. 85% is indeed terrific. Still, if you look at the stats, Sundberg and Daniello account for over half of both the stolen bases and the attempted steals. Everyone else is fairly spread out in this area.

UConn batters striking out is another interesting area. I've written a couple of times about Taylor Olmstead striking out in over a third of his at bats in summer ball, and to me an individual batter striking out that much is definitely a red flag. Well, if that is true, we have a number of strike out red flags in the batting order. As far as the starting lineup goes, DeRoche-Duffin, Testani, Davey, and Hill are all striking out in over a third of their at bats. That is indeed a lot of strike outs.

 

[ucjoet]

Was hoping for a minimum of a 4-2 record over the 6 games below. Off to a good start with a 2-1 record, and 3 games vs teams with much higher RPI than our current RPI of 57. Looking to get at least 2 of 3.





Michigan state 86 ( win) 1 - 0
wake forest 111 (loss) 1-1
William and Mary 68 (win) 2-1
Fordham 238
Seton hall 193
Seton hall 193

 

[ucjoet]

Split last 2 games vs Wake and William and Mary. But actually playing some good baseball winning 7 of last 10. Have 3 more games in southern swing vs Fordham and Seton Hall( 2 games). Both teams have much higher RPI ( I know it is still early) with Fordham at 223 and Seton Hall at 186.

If we get 2 of 3 we would meet my unscientific goal of going 12 - 8 in our "other games". Obviously sweeping all 3 would exceed the goal and get us to 13 - 7 in "other game.


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
10 -7 / .588 .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

11 -7 / .611 ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

57 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation

 

[ucjoet]

Split last 2 games vs Wake and William and Mary. But actually playing some good baseball winning 7 of last 10. Have 3 more games in southern swing vs Fordham and Seton Hall( 2 games). Both teams have much higher RPI ( I know it is still early) with Fordham at 223 and Seton Hall at 186.

If we get 2 of 3 we would meet my unscientific goal of going 12 - 8 in our "other games". Obviously sweeping all 3 would exceed the goal and get us to 13 - 7 in "other game.


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
10 -7 / .588 .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

11 -7 / .611 ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

57 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation

 

[ucjoet]

Was hoping to go 4 - 2 over 6 games below. Off to a good start.



Michigan state 86 ( win) 1 - 0
wake forest 111 (loss) 1-1
William and Mary 68 (win) 2-1
Fordham 238
Seton hall 193
Seton hall 193

 

[ucjoet]

With 1-0 win today we are now 3-1 in the below 6 games. I believe we are playing 2 games tomorrow. A split would be acceptable to get us to my original goal of 4-2. But getting greedy and looking for 2 wins tomorrow.


Michigan state 86 ( win) 1 - 0
wake forest 111 (loss) 1-1
William and Mary 68 (win) 2-1
Fordham 238
Seton hall 193 win 3-1
Seton hall 193

 

[ucjoet]

Another great pitching performance from Cross today. We have won 8 of last 10 games. Looks like we will be playing 2 tomorrow.



current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
11 -7 / .611 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

12 -7 / .632 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

59 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

Another note is that we still continue to have the second best RPI in AAC to UCF ( 24)

 

[ucjoet]

Checking out RPI of all AAC teams this morning. Noticed that 7 of 8 teams are have RPI of 99 or less. My projection goal for AAC games is a 16-8 record. If we accomplish that the RPI portion ( lower than 60 ) should take care of itself.

 

[ucjoet]

Reached goal of 4-2 over 6 games below. Was looking for a sweep today to get us to 5-1, but bats were not working in first game. Still happy with the overall performance of team. Looks like we found a new starter in Willy Yahn. Hitting .400 as of now ( 6 - 15)



Michigan state 86 ( win) 1 - 0
wake forest 111 (loss) 1-1
William and Mary 68 (win) 2-1
Seton hall 193 ( win) 3-1
Seton hall 193 (loss) 3 - 2
Seton Hall 193 (win) 4-2

 

[ucjoet]

Well we are done with our "other games" portion of the schedule, and we met the expectations of a 12 - 8 record. Even though we won 2 of 3 with Seton Hall our RPI went down from 57 to 67. Don't think this is very relevant now, especially once we get into AAC play, where 7 of 8 teams have a current RPI of less than 100. If we keep winning the RPI should not be a problem.


current record.. season goal

0 - 0 / .000 % .... 16 - 8 / .667 % - AAC regular season
0 - 0 / .000% .... 2 - 2 / .500 - AAC tourney
1- 0 / .1000% ... 10 - 2 / .846 - New England games
12 -8 / .600 % .... 12 - 8 / .600 - Other games

13 -8/ .619 % ..... 40-20 / .667 - Overall record

67 .... <61- RPI


Green = Above expectation
Blue = At expectation
Red = Below expectation
Black = not yet applicable

 

[ucjoet]

The next 6 game stretch is below. With 3 New England games and 3 games at Tulane (AAC). Again looking to go a minimum of 4 - 2 in these next 6. We have the highest RPI in all 6 games( just as a point of reference). Realize RPI doesn't mean much, especially this early in season.

Yale (90)
CCSU (279)
Tulane (71)
Tulane (71)
Tulane (71)
BC (112)

 

[huskymedic]

They could have stole a couple of more games season to date as well... still have a few tendencies to battle through but they are coming together nicely w/ new faces and re-purposed players.

... and they need to beat BC!

 

[dbmill]

Checking out RPI of all AAC teams this morning. Noticed that 7 of 8 teams are have RPI of 99 or less. My projection goal for AAC games is a 16-8 record. If we accomplish that the RPI portion ( lower than 60 ) should take care of itself.

Ever since the old Big East fell apart Penders has been saying the one sport where the AAC is better than the old Big East is in baseball. When last I checked only two teams had RPI's of over 100, Cincinnati (230) and East Carolina (111).

 

[ucjoet]

They could have stole a couple of more games season to date as well... still have a few tendencies to battle through but they are coming together nicely w/ new faces and re-purposed players.

... and they need to beat BC!

Agree on all points.