Who Could (Possibly) Defeat UConn in the Tournament?

[Fairfield Fan]

So, Charlie Creme's guesses at seedings not withstanding, is there a team, or teams, you think could actually challenge Connecticut in the NCAA tournament?

Here are my choices:

Notre Dame: They play with a ferocious intensity, and their record this year and the past four rivals Connecticut's. They have lost one game in the ACC since jointing, and just one game in the past three years to a team not Connecticut. They played us tough at the beginning of the season. They will be loaded for bear at the end.

Louisville: They are on an incredible run, with just one defeat in the last nineteen games, and that a narrow loss to Notre Dame. They're young, and if they don't win the NC or go to the FF this year, they will be favorites to do so next year.

Maryland: I think they've become better since their narrow loss to UConn early on. And Walker-Kimbrough is an amazing force. If UConn has another bad-shooting start as it did against Tulane, could a Maryland take advantage and keep the Huskies from recovering?

Baylor? I haven't seen them play. Texas? They were supposed to be good last year, but UConn destroyed them.

Who's not going to challenge UConn? I don't see a strong mid-major out there. Dayton isn't last year's Dayton. Marist doesn't have Rachel Fitz anymore. Could a St. Mary's pose a threat to top seeds? What do you think?

I still think this is Connecticut's year. They're not as strong as last year, but the triumvirate of Stewart, Jefferson, and Tuck, plus a fast-improving KLS should see them through. Your thoughts?

 

[WiseOne]

Honestly, the only team I think can beat UCONN is UCONN itself! It's up to them!

 

[xHunt3r]

There is only 1 team that can beat UConn... UConn! If first quarter of the Tulane game UConn shows up at the tournament any of the top 10 can beat them. No one should beat them though if they shoot the ball like they are capable.

 

[ricky]

It's a problem if Tuck continues missing layups. She can't buy one anymore and is completely shutown near the rim and on defense. There must be some crazy basketball gravitational forces that keep the ball away from the basket. Then she is getting a lot of fouls called on her. Ever since Temple it's been this way.

 

[JoePgh]

Notre Dame: They play with a ferocious intensity, and their record this year and the past four rivals Connecticut's. They have lost one game in the ACC since jointing ...

I hadn't realized that was considered a performance-enhancing drug! Besides, Muffitt would never ...

Interesting that your analysis doesn't mention South Carolina. I think you are probably right -- they don't seem to have enough in the backcourt, despite Tiffany Mitchell, to field a well-balanced offense. I do think they would have a better chance with Imobvioh playing instead of Coates for most of the minutes.

While South Carolina could be a threat if Mitchell and Wilson both have great games, and ND could also be a threat if they are hot from 3-point land and UConn is cold, I think Maryland and Baylor have the best chance against UConn. Maryland played a tougher game against UConn than either ND or the Gamecocks, and they are very balanced between the front court and the back court. Baylor has amazing size and a very capable point guard (albeit not a scorer). I don't understand why they aren't dominating the Big 12 (in terms of MOV) as much as UConn is dominating the AAC.

But really, if UConn does not win, it would be a surprise on the order of the Griner-Sims demise at the hands of Louisville a few years ago. I don't think that is very likely. (Does that mean Louisville is the most likely agent of doom? -- Maybe.)

 

[jennyo70]

We are young and consistently inconsistent. That being said, Walz does his best work late in the season and as an underdog. Anything beyond the first weekend and I feel like we are playing with house money, all the pressure is off to just have fun and play ball. (The pressure is not truly off, but in terms of what this team should do, the pressure is off.)

I would be thrilled to see us make a run to Indy. Could be the shortest trip of any team in the NCAA, should it happen with the first rounds at home, regionals hopefully in Lexington and the FF in Indy.

We have 4 legitimate double digit scorers on any night. We are playing pretty well for a very young team. We play the games for a reason, but at the end of the day, the Championship is Uconn's to lose, in my opinion. I'm hopeful we will knock on the door this year, but if not, I expect us to be there for the next few years.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

I hadn't realized that was considered a performance-enhancing drug! Besides, Muffitt would never ...

Interesting that your analysis doesn't mention South Carolina. I think you are probably right -- they don't seem to have enough in the backcourt, despite Tiffany Mitchell, to field a well-balanced offense. I do think they would have a better chance with Imobvioh playing instead of Coates for most of the minutes.

While South Carolina could be a threat if Mitchell and Wilson both have great games, and ND could also be a threat if they are hot from 3-point land and UConn is cold, I think Maryland and Baylor have the best chance against UConn. Maryland played a tougher game against UConn than either ND or the Gamecocks, and they are very balanced between the front court and the back court. Baylor has amazing size and a very capable point guard (albeit not a scorer). I don't understand why they aren't dominating the Big 12 (in terms of MOV) as much as UConn is dominating the AAC.

But really, if UConn does not win, it would be a surprise on the order of the Griner-Sims demise at the hands of Louisville a few years ago. I don't think that is very likely. (Does that mean Louisville is the most likely agent of doom? -- Maybe.)

Funny. Thanks for the catch!

But regarding South Carolina, I think Rebecca Lobo had them pegged a long time ago: they just can't put up points. Frankly, I think they have a coaching problem. A'ja Wilson is a superstar. Amazing talent, and she shows it nearly every time she gets the ball. But she has been underutilized. A team with Wilson should be pounding the ball into her on nearly every play. And with Coates there, Wilson shouldn't be effectively double-teamed. But South Carolina is chronically offensively-challenged. With UConn's defense, and a plethora of scoring threats, I don't see Connecticut being seriously challenged by that team. Notre Dame gave us a stronger game, as did Maryland and Florida State.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

We are young and consistently inconsistent. That being said, Walz does his best work late in the season and as an underdog. Anything beyond the first weekend and I feel like we are playing with house money, all the pressure is off to just have fun and play ball. (The pressure is not truly off, but in terms of what this team should do, the pressure is off.)

I would be thrilled to see us make a run to Indy. Could be the shortest trip of any team in the NCAA, should it happen with the first rounds at home, regionals hopefully in Lexington and the FF in Indy.

We have 4 legitimate double digit scorers on any night. We are playing pretty well for a very young team. We play the games for a reason, but at the end of the day, the Championship is Uconn's to lose, in my opinion. I'm hopeful we will knock on the door this year, but if not, I expect us to be there for the next few years.

Yes, Walz has a knack of taking a disparate group of kids and getting them to perform. He also has a knack of taking those kids and not performing. But they did pull off a major upset against Baylor, and will be very dangerous in the tournament. Louisville is, in my opinion, one of those programs that have benefitted from the submergence of Tennessee over the past decade.

 

[CocoHusky]

It's a problem if Tuck continues missing layups. She can't buy one anymore and is completely shutown near the rim and on defense. There must be some crazy basketball gravitational forces that keep the ball away from the basket. Then she is getting a lot of fouls called on her. Ever since Temple it's been this way.

The Temple game was next game after the South Carolina. Morgan had two full weeks of down time before South and the schedule allows her to have almost as much rest going into the NCAA tournament.
AAC Finals is March 7 th. 1st and Second round games start on March 18th. Realistically UCONN should probably not need Morgan until regional finals which are the March 28th. There is plenty of time to rest & Morgan will be fine- I hope.

 

[geneticrex]

Anything can happen in a 1 and done, but I think there's only 1 team that has an offense both balanced from the arc to the rack, disciplined and with enough firepower from multiple positions and that would be ND.

Barring foul trouble, or injury, of course.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Anything can happen in a 1 and done, but I think there's only 1 team that has an offense both balanced from the arc to the rack, disciplined and with enough firepower from multiple positions and that would be ND.

Barring foul trouble, or injury, of course.

The one time that ND actually won a championship was when Connecticut lost two starters to season-ending injuries before playing them. And Diana had her worst game. So can they beat UConn without our complete physical breakdown? But they are tough. They beat Connecticut three times in a row Breanna''s freshman season. And they won more games before she arrived.

 

[bleeckerhusky]

Tournament? Tournament? What tournament? What about tonight's game? UConn rarely loses a regular season game, but then February 29 doesn't happen very often either. Hopefully, we will see some improvement from Saturday's game, especially from Nurse and Tuck, who have both been in a funk of late.

 

[huskyd]

So much of basketball is psychological, and some teams seem to have other teams' numbers. ND gives UConn a hard time--usually, though the recent pattern shows the Huskies' superiority (but not by much). And UConn has Louisville's number. SC did not threaten the Huskies at any time in their game this year. Baylor and UConn have had some back-and-forth tussles. The Bears are well-coached (as is ND). Against Maryland, the Huskies played a very sloppy game. The Terps have talent, which includes a talent for losing the big games. The pressure on UConn to win the NC is arguably greater than it ever has been. How our ladies handle that pressure will determine whether they rush to victory, stumble to victory, or have victory elude them.

 

[bags27]

Notre Dame's got freshmen that need to perform; we're ditto, and perhaps more pressure on Lou, because: seems like no other Husky can hit the 3 right now, which is both zone-busting and spreads the floor for Stewie, AND because we'd effectively be playing ND on their home court and it remains to be seen how well Lou performs in those environments. I think ND will make Lou beat them. Not that other teams can't upset us, but if we get to play ND in the finals, I will have butterflies all day, and be doing some serious whiskey sipping during....

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Notre Dame's got freshmen that need to perform; we're ditto, and perhaps more pressure on Lou, because: seems like no other Husky can hit the 3 right now, which is both zone-busting and spreads the floor for Stewie, AND because we'd effectively be playing ND on their home court and it remains to be seen how well Lou performs in those environments. I think ND will make Lou beat them. Not that other teams can't upset us, but if we get to play ND in the finals, I will have butterflies all day, and be doing some serious whiskey sipping during....

3-point shooting has been a problem of late. Nurse has been off, as has Morgan. Until very recently, KLS has been hit-or-miss. So which freshman shows up for the championship game? Breanna had a great game as a freshman; Diana had the worst of her career.

 

[HGN]

The Temple game was next game after the South Carolina. Morgan had two full weeks of down time before South and the schedule allows her to have almost as much rest going into the NCAA tournament.
AAC Finals is March 7 th. 1st and Second round games start on March 18th. Realistically UCONN should probably not need Morgan until regional finals which are the March 28th. There is plenty of time to rest & Morgan will be fine- I hope.

I AGREE WITH YOUR ANALYSIS.........The only probably I see is if Morgan gets a little 'rusty' while letting her knee get some rest. But I would rather have her on the floor a little rusty than not have her at all.

 

[DogWarden]

I hope we don't have to play the Dayton Flyers again.

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/recap?gameId=400787782

 

[Tonyc]

UConn will not get beat by any team, and can only lose if they screw up. Our big 3 wont let it happen, they are to dominate and Stewie is unguardable. My 4 best teams outside of UConn are ND Maryland LVille and Baylor. LVille is playing great right now, as is MD and MD has height and shooters. ND is consistent and Baylor is tall.

Remember UConn had ND MD by a lot before they let up and MD especially right after the Holiday Break played well in MSG. I don't think at this point in the season Geno takes his foot off the petal. Another point they will all have to play themselves in order to meet UConn in the FF. All 4 could knock each other off before the FF.

A lot is going to depend on the brackets too. I don't see ND or MD in UConns bracket. I think the committee wants to see the 4 best teams in the FF.

 

[CocoHusky]

I dislike very much how people are Roger Clemensing-misremembering the Dayton, BYU, this years ND game. Each game required a halftime adjustment and UCONN has the best in the business at making adjustments. In the second half of those games UCONN adjusted well enough to have leads that were well above the expected MOV. Here is the thing about defeating UCONN in a big game, one or more UCONN players can afford to have a bad game because Stewie never has a bad game. To beat UCONN ALL your players must play at their best.

 

[Icebear]

There is only 1 team that can beat UConn... UConn! If first quarter of the Tulane game UConn shows up at the tournament any of the top 10 can beat them. No one should beat them though if they shoot the ball like they are capable.

Only if that first quarter shows up for 3/4s of any game against the top 5.

 

[geneticrex]

The one time that ND actually won a championship was when Connecticut lost two starters to season-ending injuries before playing them. And Diana had her worst game. So can they beat UConn without our complete physical breakdown? But they are tough. They beat Connecticut three times in a row Breanna''s freshman season. And they won more games before she arrived.

Not just any 2 starters, but 2 AAs. Definitely a half of basketball I'd like to forget.

More recently, the Flopping Irish had a nice little run comprised mainly of last second and overtime victories, but that's been over for 3 years, replaced by a number of UCONN thumpings, including for all the marbles. Still, they're a very good team and while I don't expect ND can topple the Huskies should they meet in the dance, if they can sustain their 'A' game for 40 and UCONN has 'one of those nights', ya never know.

 

[HardHatGuy#2]

General consensus seems to be that only UConn can beat UConn, and I agree with that; no team this year is good enough to beat us, and any time it was close, it was because UConn was playing poorly, and not as a direct result of the opponent's play. That said, here are my concerns:

• South Carolina - Tuck decimated them inside, completely wrecking their game plan. The only recovery they made was when Wilson went out, and with Coates ineffective, they were forced into a change to their plan. What if Tuck had not been on, and they had been able to establish their inside game? Could be a MUCH different game.
• Notre Dame - They came at us without Turner, and had to depend solely on their outside game. Shooting 65% from beyond the arc while UConn shot poorly (33%) kept them in the game. Next time they should have Turner, so we have not seen these teams play each other, yet. How will the standard ND game plan do against UConn?
• Baylor/Louisville - lots of good parts, here, and great coaches. Between the two you could put together a nice ride, but individually, not this season. Next season they will both be trouble.
• Maryland - Lots of good parts, a good coach, and a star in Walker-Kimbrough. Frese has a good a chance as anyone to pull it off, this year. This team worries me, but we have a distinct advantage; we've played this team already, and nobody makes adjustments better than Geno. Unless Frese pulls a fast one, like coming out with The System or some such, it will be a good game, but UConn will get the win.

As for the Mid-Majors, no, I don't see any Dayton's, this year. There are a few Pac10 teams that can make some noise, though.

 

[JSB60]

The one time that ND actually won a championship was when Connecticut lost two starters to season-ending injuries before playing them. And Diana had her worst game. So can they beat UConn without our complete physical breakdown? But they are tough. They beat Connecticut three times in a row Breanna''s freshman season. And they won more games before she arrived.

So in 2001, all they had to beat was a lineup of Sue, Diana, Swin, Asjha, and Tamika Williams? They are always the team that worries me the most.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

3-point shooting has been a problem of late. Nurse has been off, as has Morgan. Until very recently, KLS has been hit-or-miss. So which freshman shows up for the championship game? Breanna had a great game as a freshman; Diana had the worst of her career.

I have forgotten to mention Connecticut's power pack off the bench: Gabby Williams. Every time she comes in, she sparks a run. She did it against Tulane as well, as Coach Geno pointed out. Even if the Big Four falter, Gabby will come in and start a rally. Hard to beat that combination- this year, anyway.

 

[bags27]

"Whom the Gods would destroy, they first make mad" (Henry Wadsworth Longfellow, based obscurely on a Greek original via William Anderson Scott). Madness, in the ancient Greek world, came from hubris, and I sense a lot of it here. Just sayin'....