If the Tournament started today, we'd be a 7 seed, and I think 2nd round is likely (though this team could also very easily lose in the first round to a #10 seed), with a Sweet 16 and beyond possible if we catch Michigan State or Kansas on a bad day.
If we finish at something like 12-6 in conference, lose in the AACT semis -- making us something like 4-6 against the other top AAC teams -- we'll be an 8/9 seed, with a 50% chance of making it out of the first round and a 5-10% chance of getting to the second weekend.
On the other hand, if we go something like 11-1 down the stretch and win the AACT, we could be a 4/5 seed, in which case I'd say we have a 50% chance of making the Sweet 16.
I think the most palatable realistic outcome is a 6 seed, a favorable matchup against a flawed 11 seed (ideally someone from a P5 conference who badly underachieved), and then a game against a 3-seed like Duke who can't really exploit our weaknesses.