whaler11
Head Happy Hour Coach
- Joined
- Aug 27, 2011
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I went full #spackler here - my apologies. Much of this is off the top of my head so feel free to point out the many mistakes.
This is divided into some general sections:
-Overall thoughts
-Diaco and Coaching
-Offense
-Defense & Specials
-Schedule Breakdown/Guesses
I guess I have two somewhat contradictory thoughts about the 2015 season.
One is that Diaco has plenty of time to rebuild this program and is under no immediate pressure to win, the second being that if they don't show a decent amount of improvement this season, then what....
The ongoing stress of conference realignment is a huge drag on building the fanbase. I guess I'm pushing along the steps of grief and have gotten to acceptance. I think we are stuck here for a while, and my interest level in the league is much higher this year than last. I feel that since I'm willing to follow it fairly closely - that gives me the right to complain about it, YMMV.
I hope that people choose to come out to Rentschler. This isn't the NFL, you don't get to draft Andrew Luck when you stink. The only way to improve your team is to go out and find kids willing to make the committment - it seems completely self-evident to me that the staff's job is much easy to find those kids if the fanbase is out in force supporting them even in challenging times.
What better statement could we make as a fanbase to recruits and other conferences than: yep we are on a 15-33 run, and nobody thinks we are going to a bowl - but we are still putting 30+K in the stands and people are having a good time and there is still some energy in the building. Personally I think that would be a huge statement, I understand it probably isn't going to happen - but to me if you
want better days in the future for the athletic department the number one thing you can do is to show up at the Rent, the XL and Gampel.
I think there is a pretty good chance the team improves a good amount this season and it isn't necessarily reflected in the roster.
I can bash Bob at times, but I'm pretty fair about the undertaking he had about rebuilding the program. I wouldn't have taken the same approach, but there is certainly an argument for some of what he has done differently and there is certainly a chance it will pay off.
I do hope he continues to balance today versus the future - I know we need some wins now, but I don't want to trade say hypothetically Tyler Davis' 5th year for a somewhat better chance to win 5 games instead of 3-4 this season.
Here is what I think I know about Diaco:
- He can coach a defense
- He is very bright and has a massive amount of energy
- His personality and leadership style really connects with some people
- He's going to run one of the cleanest programs in the country and the academics matter
Here is what I don't think I know about Diaco:
- Can he surround himself with the right assistants
- Can he make winning decisions on game day
- Will he be able to bring in enough talent to compete with the top of the league
It was funny that Bob actually made a comment the other day that I'll paraphrase: He isn't trying to reinvent the wheel. Almost made me wonder if he's been reading up on the Boneyard (sarcasm).
Is there anything worse for a program than having four offensive coordinators in four years?
I don't have any real opinion of Verducci yet, hopefully he ends up being the answer.
One thing that will be interesting on the defensive side is how much more complicated the defensive schemes are.
Diaco has commented that it was at a 100 level and will be moving to a 200 level. Hopefully this leads to more pressure on the quarterback - that was a huge ingredient that was missing last season and it's a fairly easy connection as to why they didn't generate many turnovers.
From a philsophical standpoint, I hope that some of the roster usage and the lack of redshirts was a long term plan to turn this roster around, not that we'll see few redshirts and huge rotations going forward. Once they have the depth build to a credible level I hope they intend to redshirt as many players as they can, barring the rare impact true freshman.
I like the progress they have made in recruiting. They are in against better programs and having some success. To me it's the best kind of progress - incremental and sustainable. It's probably the best future indicator for the staff/program we have right now.
So what does the team look like:
Quarterbacks:
Seemingly no doubt that what was clear at the Spring Game has continued in fall camp.
Bryant Shirreffs is going to start, and priority number one is keeping him healthy. It's hard to say
what we are going to get out of him, but if he could play at an average AAC level in really his first
chance to play in competitive situations that would be a big step in the right direction.
If he gets hurt, then all bets are off. I have no idea where Anderson stacks up against Boyle, but
would hope he is outplaying him to date. Davis is hopefully locked into a redshirt, but if BS gets
hurt and the other two struggle it wouldn't shock me to see him this season. It would disappointment me to no end, but not shock me.
Running Backs:
It sounds like better news on Newsome the past week or so. He was a bit of disappointment last season, but it's starting to look like he just wasn't ready and needed a legitimate strength program to be prepared.
Hard to see him getting the majority of the carries, but it would be nice if they could get him 10-12 runs and a few touches in space.
I think everyone expects Ron Johnson to get a bundle of carries, and I agree. He showed some flashes and looks the part, but needs to be more consistent. I wouldn't completely write off DeLorenzo yet, he somehow always manages to keep himself as part of the conversation. Marriner is talented and could carve himself out a fairly big role or be ready to step in and do a good job if someone gets hurt.
Clax has an awesome name.
Receivers:
They really lost a lot here. Davis and Foxx are going to be missed, and while there are a bunch of guys who have shown flashes, there has been almost zero consistently from anyone on the roster.
I think everyone has been waiting for Noel Thomas to break out the last two seasons. Certainly the comments from Diaco are encouraging based on how things worked out for Byron Jones.
Lemelle and Bradley have shown glimpses, but who knows. Seems obvious that some true freshman are going to play, but which ones and how well -you've got me. Beals is the biggest name, but there are plenty of others.
Tight Ends: I think I can sum up this position fairly easily. He who blocks best plays.
McQuillan's departure really hurts them here. They need to get blocking from the position and they
have two sophmores and a bunch of freshman. We've seen Myers and Bloom - I don't know if I saw any separation.
Holman, Campbell, Lee are like a basketball front court. Holman is a cool story and I think can end up a fan favorite if not this season than soon.
Offensive Line:
If you can predict how well the offensive line will play, than I think you can predict how well the team will play.
Knappe and Levy seem locked in their roles. Losing Crozier was a huge blow.
Tyler Samra is the poster child for why I want to try and redshirt as many kids as possible - his career has flown by with little contribution.
Oak, Rutherford, Gifford, Vechery, Hashemi? I guess we'll know a lot more in a few short weeks.
If they can get the line playing at even a serviceable level it would really make an impact to the running game and keeping BS healthy.
If they can't block and the only receiver anyone has to worry about is Thomas, it could get really really ugly at times.
Lot of players looking like misses on this line - it's one area they really need to go out and get some committments and bring in some players ASAP.
Offense Summary:
As the line goes, so goes the offense. I think BS will be pretty decent - maybe a half level below a healthy Lorenzen, which isn't bad for a SO, who hasn't ever really played beyond some mop up time at NC State 2 years ago.
There is more than enough talent in the backfield, that if they block someone will run it.
Since the tight ends are going to have to block, they need receivers to step up - because one man no matter how promising
is not going to keep this offense moving, especially if BS is under constant pressure.
From a scheme perspective, hopefully whatever they do it's more aggressive, doesn't lead to turtleing over turnover fears and we aren't punting from midfield on 4th and short.
Defensive Front 7:
Certainly a lot more fun to talk about and a pretty clear strength.
Campenni and Fatukasi are both very good and Myers is very solid behind them.
Maybe the most interesting players on the roster - they certainly can have a huge impact are Ormsby and Carrezola.
I think we know what we get with Adeyemi and he's pretty good - but if Carrezona and Ormsby can improve and be impact players I think it would be a huge impact and would help cover for some issues at corner. Stapleton is also promising and young.
I think Vann is an excellent player, and Jospeh is clearly thought of very highly by the staff.
Stewart I think is a bit overrated outside of the program based on his stats, but it's the rare player who gets more positive coverage than the fanbase seems to think is warrented.
Diggs will push and if what we are hearing about Walsh is true it's good news. Will be fun to see what Levenberry brings next year.
I think people like the true freshman, but should be enough depth here to utilize some redshirts for a change.
Defensive Backfield:
Lots of chatter about the safties. They are very good, but it would be nice to see Obi play with more consistency.
Both Adams and Melifonwu seem to be constantly knicked up - hopefully they can both stay healthy and on the field - Marder and Lee behind them is a dropoff.
Corners got put in the fire a bit last year after Jones got hurt. If you look at the defensive stats before and after his injury pretty much things fell apart. How much is directly related to his loss? Don't know but certainly some of it.
Summers and Williams showed flashes, hopefully they can cut back on the penalties. Green has been around for a while but we haven't seen much and Hadley seems promising.
McAllister I'm sure will be in the mix soon. Did Nick Vitale move from receiver to cornerback recently?
Garland has been one of the bigger names in the incoming class, but fingers crossed they don't need to play true freshman at corner.
Another spot where they need to keep guys healthy - but if the front 7 can generate more pressure than last year, it will help as I think corner is a bit of weakness relative to the other positions on the roster.
Defensive Summary:
Pretty solid all around. A good amount of depth and a good mix of experience and youth. Need to get more pressure on the QB and could have a pretty
darn good unit on their hands. Let's face it if they win 5-6 games it's going to be because of the defense.
Specials:
Wain got off to a good start I thought last year and then struggled some. Hopefully he can play to that higher level, they could use the help.
Puyol has been decent, solid enough I guess. I hope they don't use Tarbutt as a kickoff specialist. If he wins the job good enough, I haven't heard much on that front.
The return teams have been dreadful the past few seasons. Newsome certainly looks the part - it is certainly an area with room for improvement. Maybe Marriner can
make an impact returning kicks.
The coverage teams have been pretty decent - the roster has a bit more depth so there isn't any reason to take a step back.
Schedule - real point spreads where avail, guesses elsewhere - relative to taking UConn.
My guess at win probability - add them up and you've got the guess for the season
Villanova (+3) 50% chance UConn wins:
Has anyone talked about this game yet? Certainly seems reasonable to me to consider Villanova the favorite.
It's crazy what a huge game this is for Diaco - if they lose this he's going to have to make some serious progress later on for people to get on board/stay on board. It's a huge game for Villanova and I'm sure they won't have any motivation issues.
Personally I think this game is a coinflip. I wish they played Army first and I'd feel a lot better about it.
Army (-10) 90% chance UConn wins:
If they start 0-2, Fishy may need to shut the Boneyard down for a few days. There isn't any reason to lose to Army, they
aren't good and they lost a lot. It's fairly crazy they lost to them last year.
@ Missouri (+33.5) 5% chance UConn wins:
Missouri is off Arkansas State and has Kentucky on deck. So they aren't going to catch them off an emotional game or looking ahead I don't think UConn is 5 touchdown underdog, but I think that 5% might be generous.
Navy (+7) 40% chance UConn wins:
If there is a spot where UConn can jump up and bite someone in the first half of the season this is it to me.
You want Navy off a win against ECU - hopefully close.
Get them at home off their first conference game with Air Force and Notre Dame on deck and you could catch them in a pretty nice letdown spot. I also think Navy is a bit overrated coming into the season.
@BYU (+21) 10% chance UConn wins:
BYU certainly has been getting beat up injury wise, but injuries in college football are almost always overrated except in a few key instances so I don't think that has closed the game much. If Hill is upright UConn is in trouble
They are off Michigan and some other tough games, but have East Carolina on deck so they won't be completely asleep at the wheel.
God the first half of their schedule is brutal - they could be 0-4 going into this.
@UCF (+14/15) 15% chance UConn wins:
Sandwiched at home between Tulane and Temple. Any chance that UConn was going to catch UCF sleeping is gone.
I have a bad feeling this one goes sideways for UConn. I think I'm being generous with the 15%.
USF (-4) 70% chance UConn wins:
South Florida still stinks. They have stunk longer than UConn. They stink on the road and their schedule is brutal the four weeks prior @ FSU, @ Maryland, Memphis, Syracuse. They could show up 1-4 if they don't get the Cuse game.
@Cincinnati (+21/22) 5% chance UConn wins:
A house of horrors for UConn and a much better team they go against. Get them off a trip to BYU and getting UCF at home.
East Carolina: (+6/7) 30% chance UConn wins:
I don't like this ECU team much. They don't wilt on the road though and a weeknight crowd isn't going to bother them.
Off Temple, but only USF the next week.
@Tulane (+8/9): 25% chance UConn wins:
I think I like this Tulane team more than a lot of other people. If Lee is consistent they are all set at QB and they
have some promising players. Off Memphis so maybe a close loss there would make this a better spot. Only have Army the next week though.
Houston (+10/11): 25% chance UConn wins:
This could be getting Houston in a great spot. I think they will challenge for the league and they have a road trip to UConn sandwiched between home games against Memphis and Navy. If they don't win this year they will win fairly soon. What a great staff and they are killing it in recruiting/transfers.
@Temple (+17): 20% chance UConn wins:
20% is probably pretty generous. I am half drinking the Temple Kool-Aid I guess - but they are just further along in their process.
Off Memphis, doubtful they are looking ahead to AAC championship but perhaps.
What a huge opportunity for them the first two weeks. Penn State and @ Cincinnati
Summary: I think there is a pretty wide window of potential results.
If they lose to Villanova, they can't block, BS gets hurt... then 1-2 wins is on the table.
If they beat Nova, line is decent, BS is healthy... they could win 5-6.
The schedule is tougher than people give them credit for and the road/home split is about the opposite of what you'd want.
I'd put 1-2 wins at about a 10% probability, 6 wins at about the same 10% and 7+ at maybe 5% if I'm being generous.
Going into this exercise I was thinking 4, my numbers add up to 3.85.
I am not going to measure success this season on only wins and losses - I don't think it's time for that yet.
I want to see progress from the staff and the especially the offense. I want to see a staff that can coach on gameday and show they learned from last year mistakes. I want to see them close this next class strong.
Anyway a few thousand words later: 4-8 (2-6) incremental progress with hope headed towards 2016.
This is divided into some general sections:
-Overall thoughts
-Diaco and Coaching
-Offense
-Defense & Specials
-Schedule Breakdown/Guesses
I guess I have two somewhat contradictory thoughts about the 2015 season.
One is that Diaco has plenty of time to rebuild this program and is under no immediate pressure to win, the second being that if they don't show a decent amount of improvement this season, then what....
The ongoing stress of conference realignment is a huge drag on building the fanbase. I guess I'm pushing along the steps of grief and have gotten to acceptance. I think we are stuck here for a while, and my interest level in the league is much higher this year than last. I feel that since I'm willing to follow it fairly closely - that gives me the right to complain about it, YMMV.
I hope that people choose to come out to Rentschler. This isn't the NFL, you don't get to draft Andrew Luck when you stink. The only way to improve your team is to go out and find kids willing to make the committment - it seems completely self-evident to me that the staff's job is much easy to find those kids if the fanbase is out in force supporting them even in challenging times.
What better statement could we make as a fanbase to recruits and other conferences than: yep we are on a 15-33 run, and nobody thinks we are going to a bowl - but we are still putting 30+K in the stands and people are having a good time and there is still some energy in the building. Personally I think that would be a huge statement, I understand it probably isn't going to happen - but to me if you
want better days in the future for the athletic department the number one thing you can do is to show up at the Rent, the XL and Gampel.
I think there is a pretty good chance the team improves a good amount this season and it isn't necessarily reflected in the roster.
I can bash Bob at times, but I'm pretty fair about the undertaking he had about rebuilding the program. I wouldn't have taken the same approach, but there is certainly an argument for some of what he has done differently and there is certainly a chance it will pay off.
I do hope he continues to balance today versus the future - I know we need some wins now, but I don't want to trade say hypothetically Tyler Davis' 5th year for a somewhat better chance to win 5 games instead of 3-4 this season.
Here is what I think I know about Diaco:
- He can coach a defense
- He is very bright and has a massive amount of energy
- His personality and leadership style really connects with some people
- He's going to run one of the cleanest programs in the country and the academics matter
Here is what I don't think I know about Diaco:
- Can he surround himself with the right assistants
- Can he make winning decisions on game day
- Will he be able to bring in enough talent to compete with the top of the league
It was funny that Bob actually made a comment the other day that I'll paraphrase: He isn't trying to reinvent the wheel. Almost made me wonder if he's been reading up on the Boneyard (sarcasm).
Is there anything worse for a program than having four offensive coordinators in four years?
I don't have any real opinion of Verducci yet, hopefully he ends up being the answer.
One thing that will be interesting on the defensive side is how much more complicated the defensive schemes are.
Diaco has commented that it was at a 100 level and will be moving to a 200 level. Hopefully this leads to more pressure on the quarterback - that was a huge ingredient that was missing last season and it's a fairly easy connection as to why they didn't generate many turnovers.
From a philsophical standpoint, I hope that some of the roster usage and the lack of redshirts was a long term plan to turn this roster around, not that we'll see few redshirts and huge rotations going forward. Once they have the depth build to a credible level I hope they intend to redshirt as many players as they can, barring the rare impact true freshman.
I like the progress they have made in recruiting. They are in against better programs and having some success. To me it's the best kind of progress - incremental and sustainable. It's probably the best future indicator for the staff/program we have right now.
So what does the team look like:
Quarterbacks:
Seemingly no doubt that what was clear at the Spring Game has continued in fall camp.
Bryant Shirreffs is going to start, and priority number one is keeping him healthy. It's hard to say
what we are going to get out of him, but if he could play at an average AAC level in really his first
chance to play in competitive situations that would be a big step in the right direction.
If he gets hurt, then all bets are off. I have no idea where Anderson stacks up against Boyle, but
would hope he is outplaying him to date. Davis is hopefully locked into a redshirt, but if BS gets
hurt and the other two struggle it wouldn't shock me to see him this season. It would disappointment me to no end, but not shock me.
Running Backs:
It sounds like better news on Newsome the past week or so. He was a bit of disappointment last season, but it's starting to look like he just wasn't ready and needed a legitimate strength program to be prepared.
Hard to see him getting the majority of the carries, but it would be nice if they could get him 10-12 runs and a few touches in space.
I think everyone expects Ron Johnson to get a bundle of carries, and I agree. He showed some flashes and looks the part, but needs to be more consistent. I wouldn't completely write off DeLorenzo yet, he somehow always manages to keep himself as part of the conversation. Marriner is talented and could carve himself out a fairly big role or be ready to step in and do a good job if someone gets hurt.
Clax has an awesome name.
Receivers:
They really lost a lot here. Davis and Foxx are going to be missed, and while there are a bunch of guys who have shown flashes, there has been almost zero consistently from anyone on the roster.
I think everyone has been waiting for Noel Thomas to break out the last two seasons. Certainly the comments from Diaco are encouraging based on how things worked out for Byron Jones.
Lemelle and Bradley have shown glimpses, but who knows. Seems obvious that some true freshman are going to play, but which ones and how well -you've got me. Beals is the biggest name, but there are plenty of others.
Tight Ends: I think I can sum up this position fairly easily. He who blocks best plays.
McQuillan's departure really hurts them here. They need to get blocking from the position and they
have two sophmores and a bunch of freshman. We've seen Myers and Bloom - I don't know if I saw any separation.
Holman, Campbell, Lee are like a basketball front court. Holman is a cool story and I think can end up a fan favorite if not this season than soon.
Offensive Line:
If you can predict how well the offensive line will play, than I think you can predict how well the team will play.
Knappe and Levy seem locked in their roles. Losing Crozier was a huge blow.
Tyler Samra is the poster child for why I want to try and redshirt as many kids as possible - his career has flown by with little contribution.
Oak, Rutherford, Gifford, Vechery, Hashemi? I guess we'll know a lot more in a few short weeks.
If they can get the line playing at even a serviceable level it would really make an impact to the running game and keeping BS healthy.
If they can't block and the only receiver anyone has to worry about is Thomas, it could get really really ugly at times.
Lot of players looking like misses on this line - it's one area they really need to go out and get some committments and bring in some players ASAP.
Offense Summary:
As the line goes, so goes the offense. I think BS will be pretty decent - maybe a half level below a healthy Lorenzen, which isn't bad for a SO, who hasn't ever really played beyond some mop up time at NC State 2 years ago.
There is more than enough talent in the backfield, that if they block someone will run it.
Since the tight ends are going to have to block, they need receivers to step up - because one man no matter how promising
is not going to keep this offense moving, especially if BS is under constant pressure.
From a scheme perspective, hopefully whatever they do it's more aggressive, doesn't lead to turtleing over turnover fears and we aren't punting from midfield on 4th and short.
Defensive Front 7:
Certainly a lot more fun to talk about and a pretty clear strength.
Campenni and Fatukasi are both very good and Myers is very solid behind them.
Maybe the most interesting players on the roster - they certainly can have a huge impact are Ormsby and Carrezola.
I think we know what we get with Adeyemi and he's pretty good - but if Carrezona and Ormsby can improve and be impact players I think it would be a huge impact and would help cover for some issues at corner. Stapleton is also promising and young.
I think Vann is an excellent player, and Jospeh is clearly thought of very highly by the staff.
Stewart I think is a bit overrated outside of the program based on his stats, but it's the rare player who gets more positive coverage than the fanbase seems to think is warrented.
Diggs will push and if what we are hearing about Walsh is true it's good news. Will be fun to see what Levenberry brings next year.
I think people like the true freshman, but should be enough depth here to utilize some redshirts for a change.
Defensive Backfield:
Lots of chatter about the safties. They are very good, but it would be nice to see Obi play with more consistency.
Both Adams and Melifonwu seem to be constantly knicked up - hopefully they can both stay healthy and on the field - Marder and Lee behind them is a dropoff.
Corners got put in the fire a bit last year after Jones got hurt. If you look at the defensive stats before and after his injury pretty much things fell apart. How much is directly related to his loss? Don't know but certainly some of it.
Summers and Williams showed flashes, hopefully they can cut back on the penalties. Green has been around for a while but we haven't seen much and Hadley seems promising.
McAllister I'm sure will be in the mix soon. Did Nick Vitale move from receiver to cornerback recently?
Garland has been one of the bigger names in the incoming class, but fingers crossed they don't need to play true freshman at corner.
Another spot where they need to keep guys healthy - but if the front 7 can generate more pressure than last year, it will help as I think corner is a bit of weakness relative to the other positions on the roster.
Defensive Summary:
Pretty solid all around. A good amount of depth and a good mix of experience and youth. Need to get more pressure on the QB and could have a pretty
darn good unit on their hands. Let's face it if they win 5-6 games it's going to be because of the defense.
Specials:
Wain got off to a good start I thought last year and then struggled some. Hopefully he can play to that higher level, they could use the help.
Puyol has been decent, solid enough I guess. I hope they don't use Tarbutt as a kickoff specialist. If he wins the job good enough, I haven't heard much on that front.
The return teams have been dreadful the past few seasons. Newsome certainly looks the part - it is certainly an area with room for improvement. Maybe Marriner can
make an impact returning kicks.
The coverage teams have been pretty decent - the roster has a bit more depth so there isn't any reason to take a step back.
Schedule - real point spreads where avail, guesses elsewhere - relative to taking UConn.
My guess at win probability - add them up and you've got the guess for the season
Villanova (+3) 50% chance UConn wins:
Has anyone talked about this game yet? Certainly seems reasonable to me to consider Villanova the favorite.
It's crazy what a huge game this is for Diaco - if they lose this he's going to have to make some serious progress later on for people to get on board/stay on board. It's a huge game for Villanova and I'm sure they won't have any motivation issues.
Personally I think this game is a coinflip. I wish they played Army first and I'd feel a lot better about it.
Army (-10) 90% chance UConn wins:
If they start 0-2, Fishy may need to shut the Boneyard down for a few days. There isn't any reason to lose to Army, they
aren't good and they lost a lot. It's fairly crazy they lost to them last year.
@ Missouri (+33.5) 5% chance UConn wins:
Missouri is off Arkansas State and has Kentucky on deck. So they aren't going to catch them off an emotional game or looking ahead I don't think UConn is 5 touchdown underdog, but I think that 5% might be generous.
Navy (+7) 40% chance UConn wins:
If there is a spot where UConn can jump up and bite someone in the first half of the season this is it to me.
You want Navy off a win against ECU - hopefully close.
Get them at home off their first conference game with Air Force and Notre Dame on deck and you could catch them in a pretty nice letdown spot. I also think Navy is a bit overrated coming into the season.
@BYU (+21) 10% chance UConn wins:
BYU certainly has been getting beat up injury wise, but injuries in college football are almost always overrated except in a few key instances so I don't think that has closed the game much. If Hill is upright UConn is in trouble
They are off Michigan and some other tough games, but have East Carolina on deck so they won't be completely asleep at the wheel.
God the first half of their schedule is brutal - they could be 0-4 going into this.
@UCF (+14/15) 15% chance UConn wins:
Sandwiched at home between Tulane and Temple. Any chance that UConn was going to catch UCF sleeping is gone.
I have a bad feeling this one goes sideways for UConn. I think I'm being generous with the 15%.
USF (-4) 70% chance UConn wins:
South Florida still stinks. They have stunk longer than UConn. They stink on the road and their schedule is brutal the four weeks prior @ FSU, @ Maryland, Memphis, Syracuse. They could show up 1-4 if they don't get the Cuse game.
@Cincinnati (+21/22) 5% chance UConn wins:
A house of horrors for UConn and a much better team they go against. Get them off a trip to BYU and getting UCF at home.
East Carolina: (+6/7) 30% chance UConn wins:
I don't like this ECU team much. They don't wilt on the road though and a weeknight crowd isn't going to bother them.
Off Temple, but only USF the next week.
@Tulane (+8/9): 25% chance UConn wins:
I think I like this Tulane team more than a lot of other people. If Lee is consistent they are all set at QB and they
have some promising players. Off Memphis so maybe a close loss there would make this a better spot. Only have Army the next week though.
Houston (+10/11): 25% chance UConn wins:
This could be getting Houston in a great spot. I think they will challenge for the league and they have a road trip to UConn sandwiched between home games against Memphis and Navy. If they don't win this year they will win fairly soon. What a great staff and they are killing it in recruiting/transfers.
@Temple (+17): 20% chance UConn wins:
20% is probably pretty generous. I am half drinking the Temple Kool-Aid I guess - but they are just further along in their process.
Off Memphis, doubtful they are looking ahead to AAC championship but perhaps.
What a huge opportunity for them the first two weeks. Penn State and @ Cincinnati
Summary: I think there is a pretty wide window of potential results.
If they lose to Villanova, they can't block, BS gets hurt... then 1-2 wins is on the table.
If they beat Nova, line is decent, BS is healthy... they could win 5-6.
The schedule is tougher than people give them credit for and the road/home split is about the opposite of what you'd want.
I'd put 1-2 wins at about a 10% probability, 6 wins at about the same 10% and 7+ at maybe 5% if I'm being generous.
Going into this exercise I was thinking 4, my numbers add up to 3.85.
I am not going to measure success this season on only wins and losses - I don't think it's time for that yet.
I want to see progress from the staff and the especially the offense. I want to see a staff that can coach on gameday and show they learned from last year mistakes. I want to see them close this next class strong.
Anyway a few thousand words later: 4-8 (2-6) incremental progress with hope headed towards 2016.