Thoughts on the 2015 season ( v long)

[whaler11]

I went full #spackler here - my apologies. Much of this is off the top of my head so feel free to point out the many mistakes.

This is divided into some general sections:
-Overall thoughts
-Diaco and Coaching
-Offense
-Defense & Specials
-Schedule Breakdown/Guesses


I guess I have two somewhat contradictory thoughts about the 2015 season.

One is that Diaco has plenty of time to rebuild this program and is under no immediate pressure to win, the second being that if they don't show a decent amount of improvement this season, then what....

The ongoing stress of conference realignment is a huge drag on building the fanbase. I guess I'm pushing along the steps of grief and have gotten to acceptance. I think we are stuck here for a while, and my interest level in the league is much higher this year than last. I feel that since I'm willing to follow it fairly closely - that gives me the right to complain about it, YMMV.

I hope that people choose to come out to Rentschler. This isn't the NFL, you don't get to draft Andrew Luck when you stink. The only way to improve your team is to go out and find kids willing to make the committment - it seems completely self-evident to me that the staff's job is much easy to find those kids if the fanbase is out in force supporting them even in challenging times.

What better statement could we make as a fanbase to recruits and other conferences than: yep we are on a 15-33 run, and nobody thinks we are going to a bowl - but we are still putting 30+K in the stands and people are having a good time and there is still some energy in the building. Personally I think that would be a huge statement, I understand it probably isn't going to happen - but to me if you
want better days in the future for the athletic department the number one thing you can do is to show up at the Rent, the XL and Gampel.

I think there is a pretty good chance the team improves a good amount this season and it isn't necessarily reflected in the roster.

I can bash Bob at times, but I'm pretty fair about the undertaking he had about rebuilding the program. I wouldn't have taken the same approach, but there is certainly an argument for some of what he has done differently and there is certainly a chance it will pay off.

I do hope he continues to balance today versus the future - I know we need some wins now, but I don't want to trade say hypothetically Tyler Davis' 5th year for a somewhat better chance to win 5 games instead of 3-4 this season.

Here is what I think I know about Diaco:
- He can coach a defense
- He is very bright and has a massive amount of energy
- His personality and leadership style really connects with some people
- He's going to run one of the cleanest programs in the country and the academics matter

Here is what I don't think I know about Diaco:
- Can he surround himself with the right assistants
- Can he make winning decisions on game day
- Will he be able to bring in enough talent to compete with the top of the league

It was funny that Bob actually made a comment the other day that I'll paraphrase: He isn't trying to reinvent the wheel. Almost made me wonder if he's been reading up on the Boneyard (sarcasm).

Is there anything worse for a program than having four offensive coordinators in four years?
I don't have any real opinion of Verducci yet, hopefully he ends up being the answer.

One thing that will be interesting on the defensive side is how much more complicated the defensive schemes are.
Diaco has commented that it was at a 100 level and will be moving to a 200 level. Hopefully this leads to more pressure on the quarterback - that was a huge ingredient that was missing last season and it's a fairly easy connection as to why they didn't generate many turnovers.

From a philsophical standpoint, I hope that some of the roster usage and the lack of redshirts was a long term plan to turn this roster around, not that we'll see few redshirts and huge rotations going forward. Once they have the depth build to a credible level I hope they intend to redshirt as many players as they can, barring the rare impact true freshman.

I like the progress they have made in recruiting. They are in against better programs and having some success. To me it's the best kind of progress - incremental and sustainable. It's probably the best future indicator for the staff/program we have right now.


So what does the team look like:

Quarterbacks:
Seemingly no doubt that what was clear at the Spring Game has continued in fall camp.
Bryant Shirreffs is going to start, and priority number one is keeping him healthy. It's hard to say
what we are going to get out of him, but if he could play at an average AAC level in really his first
chance to play in competitive situations that would be a big step in the right direction.

If he gets hurt, then all bets are off. I have no idea where Anderson stacks up against Boyle, but
would hope he is outplaying him to date. Davis is hopefully locked into a redshirt, but if BS gets
hurt and the other two struggle it wouldn't shock me to see him this season. It would disappointment me to no end, but not shock me.

Running Backs:
It sounds like better news on Newsome the past week or so. He was a bit of disappointment last season, but it's starting to look like he just wasn't ready and needed a legitimate strength program to be prepared.

Hard to see him getting the majority of the carries, but it would be nice if they could get him 10-12 runs and a few touches in space.

I think everyone expects Ron Johnson to get a bundle of carries, and I agree. He showed some flashes and looks the part, but needs to be more consistent. I wouldn't completely write off DeLorenzo yet, he somehow always manages to keep himself as part of the conversation. Marriner is talented and could carve himself out a fairly big role or be ready to step in and do a good job if someone gets hurt.

Clax has an awesome name.

Receivers:
They really lost a lot here. Davis and Foxx are going to be missed, and while there are a bunch of guys who have shown flashes, there has been almost zero consistently from anyone on the roster.

I think everyone has been waiting for Noel Thomas to break out the last two seasons. Certainly the comments from Diaco are encouraging based on how things worked out for Byron Jones.

Lemelle and Bradley have shown glimpses, but who knows. Seems obvious that some true freshman are going to play, but which ones and how well -you've got me. Beals is the biggest name, but there are plenty of others.

Tight Ends: I think I can sum up this position fairly easily. He who blocks best plays.
McQuillan's departure really hurts them here. They need to get blocking from the position and they
have two sophmores and a bunch of freshman. We've seen Myers and Bloom - I don't know if I saw any separation.

Holman, Campbell, Lee are like a basketball front court. Holman is a cool story and I think can end up a fan favorite if not this season than soon.

Offensive Line:
If you can predict how well the offensive line will play, than I think you can predict how well the team will play.

Knappe and Levy seem locked in their roles. Losing Crozier was a huge blow.

Tyler Samra is the poster child for why I want to try and redshirt as many kids as possible - his career has flown by with little contribution.

Oak, Rutherford, Gifford, Vechery, Hashemi? I guess we'll know a lot more in a few short weeks.

If they can get the line playing at even a serviceable level it would really make an impact to the running game and keeping BS healthy.

If they can't block and the only receiver anyone has to worry about is Thomas, it could get really really ugly at times.

Lot of players looking like misses on this line - it's one area they really need to go out and get some committments and bring in some players ASAP.


Offense Summary:

As the line goes, so goes the offense. I think BS will be pretty decent - maybe a half level below a healthy Lorenzen, which isn't bad for a SO, who hasn't ever really played beyond some mop up time at NC State 2 years ago.

There is more than enough talent in the backfield, that if they block someone will run it.

Since the tight ends are going to have to block, they need receivers to step up - because one man no matter how promising
is not going to keep this offense moving, especially if BS is under constant pressure.

From a scheme perspective, hopefully whatever they do it's more aggressive, doesn't lead to turtleing over turnover fears and we aren't punting from midfield on 4th and short.


Defensive Front 7:

Certainly a lot more fun to talk about and a pretty clear strength.
Campenni and Fatukasi are both very good and Myers is very solid behind them.

Maybe the most interesting players on the roster - they certainly can have a huge impact are Ormsby and Carrezola.

I think we know what we get with Adeyemi and he's pretty good - but if Carrezona and Ormsby can improve and be impact players I think it would be a huge impact and would help cover for some issues at corner. Stapleton is also promising and young.

I think Vann is an excellent player, and Jospeh is clearly thought of very highly by the staff.

Stewart I think is a bit overrated outside of the program based on his stats, but it's the rare player who gets more positive coverage than the fanbase seems to think is warrented.

Diggs will push and if what we are hearing about Walsh is true it's good news. Will be fun to see what Levenberry brings next year.

I think people like the true freshman, but should be enough depth here to utilize some redshirts for a change.


Defensive Backfield:
Lots of chatter about the safties. They are very good, but it would be nice to see Obi play with more consistency.
Both Adams and Melifonwu seem to be constantly knicked up - hopefully they can both stay healthy and on the field - Marder and Lee behind them is a dropoff.

Corners got put in the fire a bit last year after Jones got hurt. If you look at the defensive stats before and after his injury pretty much things fell apart. How much is directly related to his loss? Don't know but certainly some of it.

Summers and Williams showed flashes, hopefully they can cut back on the penalties. Green has been around for a while but we haven't seen much and Hadley seems promising.

McAllister I'm sure will be in the mix soon. Did Nick Vitale move from receiver to cornerback recently?

Garland has been one of the bigger names in the incoming class, but fingers crossed they don't need to play true freshman at corner.

Another spot where they need to keep guys healthy - but if the front 7 can generate more pressure than last year, it will help as I think corner is a bit of weakness relative to the other positions on the roster.


Defensive Summary:
Pretty solid all around. A good amount of depth and a good mix of experience and youth. Need to get more pressure on the QB and could have a pretty
darn good unit on their hands. Let's face it if they win 5-6 games it's going to be because of the defense.


Specials:

Wain got off to a good start I thought last year and then struggled some. Hopefully he can play to that higher level, they could use the help.

Puyol has been decent, solid enough I guess. I hope they don't use Tarbutt as a kickoff specialist. If he wins the job good enough, I haven't heard much on that front.

The return teams have been dreadful the past few seasons. Newsome certainly looks the part - it is certainly an area with room for improvement. Maybe Marriner can
make an impact returning kicks.

The coverage teams have been pretty decent - the roster has a bit more depth so there isn't any reason to take a step back.



Schedule - real point spreads where avail, guesses elsewhere - relative to taking UConn.

My guess at win probability - add them up and you've got the guess for the season

Villanova (+3) 50% chance UConn wins:
Has anyone talked about this game yet? Certainly seems reasonable to me to consider Villanova the favorite.

It's crazy what a huge game this is for Diaco - if they lose this he's going to have to make some serious progress later on for people to get on board/stay on board. It's a huge game for Villanova and I'm sure they won't have any motivation issues.

Personally I think this game is a coinflip. I wish they played Army first and I'd feel a lot better about it.

Army (-10) 90% chance UConn wins:
If they start 0-2, Fishy may need to shut the Boneyard down for a few days. There isn't any reason to lose to Army, they
aren't good and they lost a lot. It's fairly crazy they lost to them last year.

@ Missouri (+33.5) 5% chance UConn wins:
Missouri is off Arkansas State and has Kentucky on deck. So they aren't going to catch them off an emotional game or looking ahead I don't think UConn is 5 touchdown underdog, but I think that 5% might be generous.

Navy (+7) 40% chance UConn wins:
If there is a spot where UConn can jump up and bite someone in the first half of the season this is it to me.

You want Navy off a win against ECU - hopefully close.

Get them at home off their first conference game with Air Force and Notre Dame on deck and you could catch them in a pretty nice letdown spot. I also think Navy is a bit overrated coming into the season.

@BYU (+21) 10% chance UConn wins:
BYU certainly has been getting beat up injury wise, but injuries in college football are almost always overrated except in a few key instances so I don't think that has closed the game much. If Hill is upright UConn is in trouble
They are off Michigan and some other tough games, but have East Carolina on deck so they won't be completely asleep at the wheel.
God the first half of their schedule is brutal - they could be 0-4 going into this.

@UCF (+14/15) 15% chance UConn wins:
Sandwiched at home between Tulane and Temple. Any chance that UConn was going to catch UCF sleeping is gone.
I have a bad feeling this one goes sideways for UConn. I think I'm being generous with the 15%.

USF (-4) 70% chance UConn wins:
South Florida still stinks. They have stunk longer than UConn. They stink on the road and their schedule is brutal the four weeks prior @ FSU, @ Maryland, Memphis, Syracuse. They could show up 1-4 if they don't get the Cuse game.

@Cincinnati (+21/22) 5% chance UConn wins:
A house of horrors for UConn and a much better team they go against. Get them off a trip to BYU and getting UCF at home.

East Carolina: (+6/7) 30% chance UConn wins:
I don't like this ECU team much. They don't wilt on the road though and a weeknight crowd isn't going to bother them.
Off Temple, but only USF the next week.

@Tulane (+8/9): 25% chance UConn wins:
I think I like this Tulane team more than a lot of other people. If Lee is consistent they are all set at QB and they
have some promising players. Off Memphis so maybe a close loss there would make this a better spot. Only have Army the next week though.

Houston (+10/11): 25% chance UConn wins:
This could be getting Houston in a great spot. I think they will challenge for the league and they have a road trip to UConn sandwiched between home games against Memphis and Navy. If they don't win this year they will win fairly soon. What a great staff and they are killing it in recruiting/transfers.

@Temple (+17): 20% chance UConn wins:
20% is probably pretty generous. I am half drinking the Temple Kool-Aid I guess - but they are just further along in their process.
Off Memphis, doubtful they are looking ahead to AAC championship but perhaps.

What a huge opportunity for them the first two weeks. Penn State and @ Cincinnati


Summary: I think there is a pretty wide window of potential results.

If they lose to Villanova, they can't block, BS gets hurt... then 1-2 wins is on the table.

If they beat Nova, line is decent, BS is healthy... they could win 5-6.

The schedule is tougher than people give them credit for and the road/home split is about the opposite of what you'd want.

I'd put 1-2 wins at about a 10% probability, 6 wins at about the same 10% and 7+ at maybe 5% if I'm being generous.


Going into this exercise I was thinking 4, my numbers add up to 3.85.

I am not going to measure success this season on only wins and losses - I don't think it's time for that yet.

I want to see progress from the staff and the especially the offense. I want to see a staff that can coach on gameday and show they learned from last year mistakes. I want to see them close this next class strong.

Anyway a few thousand words later: 4-8 (2-6) incremental progress with hope headed towards 2016.

 

[Dogged]

I went full #spackler here - my apologies. Much of this is off the top of my head so feel free to point out the many mistakes.

This is divided into some general sections:
-Overall thoughts
-Diaco and Coaching
-Offense
-Defense & Specials
-Schedule Breakdown/Guesses


I guess I have two somewhat contradictory thoughts about the 2015 season.

One is that Diaco has plenty of time to rebuild this program and is under no immediate pressure to win, the second being that if they don't show a decent amount of improvement this season, then what....

The ongoing stress of conference realignment is a huge drag on building the fanbase. I guess I'm pushing along the steps of grief and have gotten to acceptance. I think we are stuck here for a while, and my interest level in the league is much higher this year than last. I feel that since I'm willing to follow it fairly closely - that gives me the right to complain about it, YMMV.

I hope that people choose to come out to Rentschler. This isn't the NFL, you don't get to draft Andrew Luck when you stink. The only way to improve your team is to go out and find kids willing to make the committment - it seems completely self-evident to me that the staff's job is much easy to find those kids if the fanbase is out in force supporting them even in challenging times.

What better statement could we make as a fanbase to recruits and other conferences than: yep we are on a 15-33 run, and nobody thinks we are going to a bowl - but we are still putting 30+K in the stands and people are having a good time and there is still some energy in the building. Personally I think that would be a huge statement, I understand it probably isn't going to happen - but to me if you
want better days in the future for the athletic department the number one thing you can do is to show up at the Rent, the XL and Gampel.

I think there is a pretty good chance the team improves a good amount this season and it isn't necessarily reflected in the roster.

I can bash Bob at times, but I'm pretty fair about the undertaking he had about rebuilding the program. I wouldn't have taken the same approach, but there is certainly an argument for some of what he has done differently and there is certainly a chance it will pay off.

I do hope he continues to balance today versus the future - I know we need some wins now, but I don't want to trade say hypothetically Tyler Davis' 5th year for a somewhat better chance to win 5 games instead of 3-4 this season.

Here is what I think I know about Diaco:
- He can coach a defense
- He is very bright and has a massive amount of energy
- His personality and leadership style really connects with some people
- He's going to run one of the cleanest programs in the country and the academics matter

Here is what I don't think I know about Diaco:
- Can he surround himself with the right assistants
- Can he make winning decisions on game day
- Will he be able to bring in enough talent to compete with the top of the league

It was funny that Bob actually made a comment the other day that I'll paraphrase: He isn't trying to reinvent the wheel. Almost made me wonder if he's been reading up on the Boneyard (sarcasm).

Is there anything worse for a program than having four offensive coordinators in four years?
I don't have any real opinion of Verducci yet, hopefully he ends up being the answer.

One thing that will be interesting on the defensive side is how much more complicated the defensive schemes are.
Diaco has commented that it was at a 100 level and will be moving to a 200 level. Hopefully this leads to more pressure on the quarterback - that was a huge ingredient that was missing last season and it's a fairly easy connection as to why they didn't generate many turnovers.

From a philsophical standpoint, I hope that some of the roster usage and the lack of redshirts was a long term plan to turn this roster around, not that we'll see few redshirts and huge rotations going forward. Once they have the depth build to a credible level I hope they intend to redshirt as many players as they can, barring the rare impact true freshman.

I like the progress they have made in recruiting. They are in against better programs and having some success. To me it's the best kind of progress - incremental and sustainable. It's probably the best future indicator for the staff/program we have right now.


So what does the team look like:

Quarterbacks:
Seemingly no doubt that what was clear at the Spring Game has continued in fall camp.
Bryant Shirreffs is going to start, and priority number one is keeping him healthy. It's hard to say
what we are going to get out of him, but if he could play at an average AAC level in really his first
chance to play in competitive situations that would be a big step in the right direction.

If he gets hurt, then all bets are off. I have no idea where Anderson stacks up against Boyle, but
would hope he is outplaying him to date. Davis is hopefully locked into a redshirt, but if BS gets
hurt and the other two struggle it wouldn't shock me to see him this season. It would disappointment me to no end, but not shock me.

Running Backs:
It sounds like better news on Newsome the past week or so. He was a bit of disappointment last season, but it's starting to look like he just wasn't ready and needed a legitimate strength program to be prepared.

Hard to see him getting the majority of the carries, but it would be nice if they could get him 10-12 runs and a few touches in space.

I think everyone expects Ron Johnson to get a bundle of carries, and I agree. He showed some flashes and looks the part, but needs to be more consistent. I wouldn't completely write off DeLorenzo yet, he somehow always manages to keep himself as part of the conversation. Marriner is talented and could carve himself out a fairly big role or be ready to step in and do a good job if someone gets hurt.

Clax has an awesome name.

Receivers:
They really lost a lot here. Davis and Foxx are going to be missed, and while there are a bunch of guys who have shown flashes, there has been almost zero consistently from anyone on the roster.

I think everyone has been waiting for Noel Thomas to break out the last two seasons. Certainly the comments from Diaco are encouraging based on how things worked out for Byron Jones.

Lemelle and Bradley have shown glimpses, but who knows. Seems obvious that some true freshman are going to play, but which ones and how well -you've got me. Beals is the biggest name, but there are plenty of others.

Tight Ends: I think I can sum up this position fairly easily. He who blocks best plays.
McQuillan's departure really hurts them here. They need to get blocking from the position and they
have two sophmores and a bunch of freshman. We've seen Myers and Bloom - I don't know if I saw any separation.

Holman, Campbell, Lee are like a basketball front court. Holman is a cool story and I think can end up a fan favorite if not this season than soon.

Offensive Line:
If you can predict how well the offensive line will play, than I think you can predict how well the team will play.

Knappe and Levy seem locked in their roles. Losing Crozier was a huge blow.

Tyler Samra is the poster child for why I want to try and redshirt as many kids as possible - his career has flown by with little contribution.

Oak, Rutherford, Gifford, Vechery, Hashemi? I guess we'll know a lot more in a few short weeks.

If they can get the line playing at even a serviceable level it would really make an impact to the running game and keeping BS healthy.

If they can't block and the only receiver anyone has to worry about is Thomas, it could get really really ugly at times.

Lot of players looking like misses on this line - it's one area they really need to go out and get some committments and bring in some players ASAP.


Offense Summary:

As the line goes, so goes the offense. I think BS will be pretty decent - maybe a half level below a healthy Lorenzen, which isn't bad for a SO, who hasn't ever really played beyond some mop up time at NC State 2 years ago.

There is more than enough talent in the backfield, that if they block someone will run it.

Since the tight ends are going to have to block, they need receivers to step up - because one man no matter how promising
is not going to keep this offense moving, especially if BS is under constant pressure.

From a scheme perspective, hopefully whatever they do it's more aggressive, doesn't lead to turtleing over turnover fears and we aren't punting from midfield on 4th and short.


Defensive Front 7:

Certainly a lot more fun to talk about and a pretty clear strength.
Campenni and Fatukasi are both very good and Myers is very solid behind them.

Maybe the most interesting players on the roster - they certainly can have a huge impact are Ormsby and Carrezola.

I think we know what we get with Adeyemi and he's pretty good - but if Carrezona and Ormsby can improve and be impact players I think it would be a huge impact and would help cover for some issues at corner. Stapleton is also promising and young.

I think Vann is an excellent player, and Jospeh is clearly thought of very highly by the staff.

Stewart I think is a bit overrated outside of the program based on his stats, but it's the rare player who gets more positive coverage than the fanbase seems to think is warrented.

Diggs will push and if what we are hearing about Walsh is true it's good news. Will be fun to see what Levenberry brings next year.

I think people like the true freshman, but should be enough depth here to utilize some redshirts for a change.


Defensive Backfield:
Lots of chatter about the safties. They are very good, but it would be nice to see Obi play with more consistency.
Both Adams and Melifonwu seem to be constantly knicked up - hopefully they can both stay healthy and on the field - Marder and Lee behind them is a dropoff.

Corners got put in the fire a bit last year after Jones got hurt. If you look at the defensive stats before and after his injury pretty much things fell apart. How much is directly related to his loss? Don't know but certainly some of it.

Summers and Williams showed flashes, hopefully they can cut back on the penalties. Green has been around for a while but we haven't seen much and Hadley seems promising.

McAllister I'm sure will be in the mix soon. Did Nick Vitale move from receiver to cornerback recently?

Garland has been one of the bigger names in the incoming class, but fingers crossed they don't need to play true freshman at corner.

Another spot where they need to keep guys healthy - but if the front 7 can generate more pressure than last year, it will help as I think corner is a bit of weakness relative to the other positions on the roster.


Defensive Summary:
Pretty solid all around. A good amount of depth and a good mix of experience and youth. Need to get more pressure on the QB and could have a pretty
darn good unit on their hands. Let's face it if they win 5-6 games it's going to be because of the defense.


Specials:

Wain got off to a good start I thought last year and then struggled some. Hopefully he can play to that higher level, they could use the help.

Puyol has been decent, solid enough I guess. I hope they don't use Tarbutt as a kickoff specialist. If he wins the job good enough, I haven't heard much on that front.

The return teams have been dreadful the past few seasons. Newsome certainly looks the part - it is certainly an area with room for improvement. Maybe Marriner can
make an impact returning kicks.

The coverage teams have been pretty decent - the roster has a bit more depth so there isn't any reason to take a step back.



Schedule - real point spreads where avail, guesses elsewhere - relative to taking UConn.

My guess at win probability - add them up and you've got the guess for the season

Villanova (+3) 50% chance UConn wins:
Has anyone talked about this game yet? Certainly seems reasonable to me to consider Villanova the favorite.

It's crazy what a huge game this is for Diaco - if they lose this he's going to have to make some serious progress later on for people to get on board/stay on board. It's a huge game for Villanova and I'm sure they won't have any motivation issues.

Personally I think this game is a coinflip. I wish they played Army first and I'd feel a lot better about it.

Army (-10) 90% chance UConn wins:
If they start 0-2, Fishy may need to shut the Boneyard down for a few days. There isn't any reason to lose to Army, they
aren't good and they lost a lot. It's fairly crazy they lost to them last year.

@ Missouri (+33.5) 5% chance UConn wins:
Missouri is off Arkansas State and has Kentucky on deck. So they aren't going to catch them off an emotional game or looking ahead I don't think UConn is 5 touchdown underdog, but I think that 5% might be generous.

Navy (+7) 40% chance UConn wins:
If there is a spot where UConn can jump up and bite someone in the first half of the season this is it to me.

You want Navy off a win against ECU - hopefully close.

Get them at home off their first conference game with Air Force and Notre Dame on deck and you could catch them in a pretty nice letdown spot. I also think Navy is a bit overrated coming into the season.

@BYU (+21) 10% chance UConn wins:
BYU certainly has been getting beat up injury wise, but injuries in college football are almost always overrated except in a few key instances so I don't think that has closed the game much. If Hill is upright UConn is in trouble
They are off Michigan and some other tough games, but have East Carolina on deck so they won't be completely asleep at the wheel.
God the first half of their schedule is brutal - they could be 0-4 going into this.

@UCF (+14/15) 15% chance UConn wins:
Sandwiched at home between Tulane and Temple. Any chance that UConn was going to catch UCF sleeping is gone.
I have a bad feeling this one goes sideways for UConn. I think I'm being generous with the 15%.

USF (-4) 70% chance UConn wins:
South Florida still stinks. They have stunk longer than UConn. They stink on the road and their schedule is brutal the four weeks prior @ FSU, @ Maryland, Memphis, Syracuse. They could show up 1-4 if they don't get the Cuse game.

@Cincinnati (+21/22) 5% chance UConn wins:
A house of horrors for UConn and a much better team they go against. Get them off a trip to BYU and getting UCF at home.

East Carolina: (+6/7) 30% chance UConn wins:
I don't like this ECU team much. They don't wilt on the road though and a weeknight crowd isn't going to bother them.
Off Temple, but only USF the next week.

@Tulane (+8/9): 25% chance UConn wins:
I think I like this Tulane team more than a lot of other people. If Lee is consistent they are all set at QB and they
have some promising players. Off Memphis so maybe a close loss there would make this a better spot. Only have Army the next week though.

Houston (+10/11): 25% chance UConn wins:
This could be getting Houston in a great spot. I think they will challenge for the league and they have a road trip to UConn sandwiched between home games against Memphis and Navy. If they don't win this year they will win fairly soon. What a great staff and they are killing it in recruiting/transfers.

@Temple (+17): 20% chance UConn wins:
20% is probably pretty generous. I am half drinking the Temple Kool-Aid I guess - but they are just further along in their process.
Off Memphis, doubtful they are looking ahead to AAC championship but perhaps.

What a huge opportunity for them the first two weeks. Penn State and @ Cincinnati


Summary: I think there is a pretty wide window of potential results.

If they lose to Villanova, they can't block, BS gets hurt... then 1-2 wins is on the table.

If they beat Nova, line is decent, BS is healthy... they could win 5-6.

The schedule is tougher than people give them credit for and the road/home split is about the opposite of what you'd want.

I'd put 1-2 wins at about a 10% probability, 6 wins at about the same 10% and 7+ at maybe 5% if I'm being generous.


Going into this exercise I was thinking 4, my numbers add up to 3.85.

I am not going to measure success this season on only wins and losses - I don't think it's time for that yet.

I want to see progress from the staff and the especially the offense. I want to see a staff that can coach on gameday and show they learned from last year mistakes. I want to see them close this next class strong.

Anyway a few thousand words later: 4-8 (2-6) incremental progress with hope headed towards 2016.

Nice post. You should go Spackler more often!

 

[FfldCntyFan]

You went full Spackler.,... You never go full Spackler.

In my opinion, this will be the first season in a few years where we have sufficient bodies (albeit, mostly young to very young) at QB and on our offensive line. The talent level there is still open for debate but the positive takeaway is that (with consistent and improving recruiting, we should be able to field competitive rosters from 2016 forward.

I don't expect miracles but I do want to see some signs this year that indicate we can be solid on the OL and at QB in 2016. I believe that we will be very good to exceptional everywhere else once we gain a bit more experience. I kind of see this season as potentially another 2002 (a .500 record may be a bit out of reach however) and next season as another 2003.

 

[Jimdish255]

Good writeup. Agree we still have holes on OL and receivers are unproven. Those are the biggest issues ahead of QB because I believe the competition, talent level and experience improves the position.

We needed to block better on specials to break our return guys. It was bad I don't care who is back there but I like the guys we have returning kicks.

Defense will put us in position to score points and we need to take better advantage when they do. Those big point spreads early in the season don't reflect offenses being a little behind and just how good our D can be. If we don't turn the ball over and convert at a better percentage we kill those spreads.

More than ever this year it's about our blocking to make or break the season. Almost 100% agree with the above.

I like our chances by the time we get to ECU and Tulane. And we could surprise BYU with a very close game. A better situation than catching them early last year.

 

[uconndogs]

Great post Whaler. Thank you.

 

[cttxus]

Great post Whaler. Were you on vacation yesterday, last week? That would have taken me the better part of a day or two during the work week to research and compose. Thanks.

FWIW, I agree almost 100% with the post except I'd give us higher odds of winning at Tulane and Temple, especially if we've already got 4 W's on the board (i.e. Nova, Army, Navy and USF), and a bowl bid within reach.

 

[whaler11]

Great post Whaler. Were you on vacation yesterday, last week? That would have taken me the better part of a day or two during the work week to research and compose. Thanks.

FWIW, I agree almost 100% with the post except I'd give us higher odds of winning at Tulane and Temple, especially if we've already got 4 W's on the board (i.e. Nova, Army, Navy and USF), and a bowl bid within reach.

It was mostly written in my head, I just had to find time to type it out. I banged it out in about 2 halfs of EPL games this morning. I already have piles of notes on schedules on almost every team in the country.

I might be overrating Tulane some, but this program has won on the road once in 2 years. You are right though - the seeming only road to 6 is Nova, Army, Navy, USF, Tulane + 1.

 

[Duncan Idaho]

Whaler,
This was very good and agree with Dogged, you should try to write like this more often during the season. The Hybrid is going to be much better this season. Felt the same way about Frank as you do about Samra. I could almost swear I saw him on numerous stunts up the middle just pushing anyone of our interior lineman against their backsides. Afraid the loss of Crozier and McQ is going to slow the development of the offense. Nice Job!

 

[SAMCRO]

Good post. This is going to be a very telling season.
I was told a few days ago, by someone at a lot of the practices, that this years team is significantly further along from where they were at the same time last season, and the OL will be much improved. No clue how that translates to W's v L's, but it is someone I trust, someone who knows the game intimately, and is not a bu11sh1tter..... So, barring the unexpected and uninvited injuries to key contributors, I'm taking the over on wins and keeping my December/January schedule flexible for a bowl game.

 

[BleedHuskyBlu]

Your 4 win predictions are Army Navy Nova and USF?

 

[HistoryMajor]

Whaler - Thanks for good write up. It's uncanny how your thoughts echo mine. To emphasize one of your points, I too believe Max will find a positive contributing role on this team. I have no connection to Max but always felt he was a positive when he was in there (except for that one fumble). I don't know what to think about Mariner. He gets some good press but seems to struggle in his limited opportunities. Like most of us on the BY, I think this will be a break out year for Arkeel Newsome.

My biggest concerns echo yours - offensive line; and on defense the corners.

 

[blue93]

Heck of a post Whaler. My excitement about this conference is much greater than last year as well. It's pretty clear that this conference can play some football and getting to the top will be no easy feat. While the names aren't the ones we're used to, the drop off in play is not nearly as drastic as many make it out to be. It won't ever be in this P6 consideration like Aresco says, but there teams aren't slouches either. And I'm also growing to dislike some of these schools for on-field/court reasons (specifically Memphis), which makes it a little more interesting, for me at least. Hopefully everybody can take care of business in nonconference, because we need to muster as much respect as we can before it's too late.

 

[businesslawyer]

Good job. I dont expect a bowl this year. Where between 3 and 5 wins we fall is ultimately less important than convincing everyone we're heading in the right direction I don't want to repeat what you covered, but let me add a few thoughts.

1. HCBD, post Cochran, Pruitt, Jones, Davis in and out, Phillips and Brown bailing out, had nothing. Yes, the way he ran last year was weird. But we had no competent experience throughout the roster. I give him a pass, but giving him a pass is different than saying he proved something last year. Obviously, he proved nothing. Now he has to prove he can coach in all aspects -- player development, preparation, calls.

2. You win games on the two lines. On the DL, we have the personnel to defend the run but it's not clear we have pass rushers yet. Not HCBD's fault -- P's predilection for wanting high school DEs who already weighed 280 (don't get me going on this). On the OL, we don't know what we have, but we know the starters will still be very young as a group at the position where age and longevity in the program matter most. We could see signs and still not be good enough.

3. I so want to see competent QB play. Fingers crossed.

Again, last year was a discovery about how much the program without Cochran had deteriorated. This year, more than anything, is about seeing that we are going to move in the right direction, even if it takes HCBD five years to get back to where we were. And, given that we burned almost every freshman's redshirt last year, it may not be until this year's class is RS Jrs. that we will really have caught up in roster development.

I am beyond being optimistic. But will I be there for 'Nova after I'm done grilling cheesesteaks? Heck yes. Showing up -- before the program catches up to where it was -- is the single most important thing that those of us who love UConn athletics can do. If nothing else, the weather this year being better than last year will help.

 

[noeynox]

Very good write up. Much better than you would get on UConn from any of the publications you could buy. Your points on Shirreffs and the CBs I agree 100%, on. I'm higher than most on Newsome. I just think he has special vision with the ball in his hands if he gets a little open field. Each cut he makes is setting up defenders for the next one. I just hope they could get him the ball cleaner on dump offs and swing passes. Too many times last year he was jumping and contorting just trying to catch the ball. I've said before, he should have been redshirted as physically he wasn't ready for the pounding, but he still had his moments playing as a boy among men. The only advantage the other RBs have over him is larger bodies.

I posted 4 wins, in the prediction thread, and just want to see competent football on offense, defense, and specials, while cleaning up the procedural penalties stuff. Also like you mentioned, there can't be a total shutdown of the passing game. Losing 12-10, when you do that is not better than losing 56-27. Take chances, and give your offense a chance to develop in live game action, especially if you are playing for the future. That game at USF last year was one of the toughest games I've ever watched on TV. If it wasn't UConn I'm changing that channel after 3 possessions.

 

[rich1122]

We will find out whether or not HCBD's plan to be "all in" with the young guys will pay off. Lot's of young guys with game experience. They line got better toward the end of the year. The D should be pretty good especially the D-Line. They are good 2-deep.

Obi needs to step up. Adams could be really good. Newsome no fumbles. QB play, just decent.

I worry about the Center position. That is a tough job to learn in a short period. Kicking - 35-45yd - automatic this year.

Thanks for the write up. Nice job.

 

[huskymedic]

W - wasn't sure what to expect when I clicked the link

Well done.

 

[FDNY99]

I went full #spackler here - my apologies. Much of this is off the top of my head so feel free to point out the many mistakes.

This is divided into some general sections:
-Overall thoughts
-Diaco and Coaching
-Offense
-Defense & Specials
-Schedule Breakdown/Guesses


I guess I have two somewhat contradictory thoughts about the 2015 season.

One is that Diaco has plenty of time to rebuild this program and is under no immediate pressure to win, the second being that if they don't show a decent amount of improvement this season, then what....

The ongoing stress of conference realignment is a huge drag on building the fanbase. I guess I'm pushing along the steps of grief and have gotten to acceptance. I think we are stuck here for a while, and my interest level in the league is much higher this year than last. I feel that since I'm willing to follow it fairly closely - that gives me the right to complain about it, YMMV.

I hope that people choose to come out to Rentschler. This isn't the NFL, you don't get to draft Andrew Luck when you stink. The only way to improve your team is to go out and find kids willing to make the committment - it seems completely self-evident to me that the staff's job is much easy to find those kids if the fanbase is out in force supporting them even in challenging times.

What better statement could we make as a fanbase to recruits and other conferences than: yep we are on a 15-33 run, and nobody thinks we are going to a bowl - but we are still putting 30+K in the stands and people are having a good time and there is still some energy in the building. Personally I think that would be a huge statement, I understand it probably isn't going to happen - but to me if you
want better days in the future for the athletic department the number one thing you can do is to show up at the Rent, the XL and Gampel.

I think there is a pretty good chance the team improves a good amount this season and it isn't necessarily reflected in the roster.

I can bash Bob at times, but I'm pretty fair about the undertaking he had about rebuilding the program. I wouldn't have taken the same approach, but there is certainly an argument for some of what he has done differently and there is certainly a chance it will pay off.

I do hope he continues to balance today versus the future - I know we need some wins now, but I don't want to trade say hypothetically Tyler Davis' 5th year for a somewhat better chance to win 5 games instead of 3-4 this season.

Here is what I think I know about Diaco:
- He can coach a defense
- He is very bright and has a massive amount of energy
- His personality and leadership style really connects with some people
- He's going to run one of the cleanest programs in the country and the academics matter

Here is what I don't think I know about Diaco:
- Can he surround himself with the right assistants
- Can he make winning decisions on game day
- Will he be able to bring in enough talent to compete with the top of the league

It was funny that Bob actually made a comment the other day that I'll paraphrase: He isn't trying to reinvent the wheel. Almost made me wonder if he's been reading up on the Boneyard (sarcasm).

Is there anything worse for a program than having four offensive coordinators in four years?
I don't have any real opinion of Verducci yet, hopefully he ends up being the answer.

One thing that will be interesting on the defensive side is how much more complicated the defensive schemes are.
Diaco has commented that it was at a 100 level and will be moving to a 200 level. Hopefully this leads to more pressure on the quarterback - that was a huge ingredient that was missing last season and it's a fairly easy connection as to why they didn't generate many turnovers.

From a philsophical standpoint, I hope that some of the roster usage and the lack of redshirts was a long term plan to turn this roster around, not that we'll see few redshirts and huge rotations going forward. Once they have the depth build to a credible level I hope they intend to redshirt as many players as they can, barring the rare impact true freshman.

I like the progress they have made in recruiting. They are in against better programs and having some success. To me it's the best kind of progress - incremental and sustainable. It's probably the best future indicator for the staff/program we have right now.


So what does the team look like:

Quarterbacks:
Seemingly no doubt that what was clear at the Spring Game has continued in fall camp.
Bryant Shirreffs is going to start, and priority number one is keeping him healthy. It's hard to say
what we are going to get out of him, but if he could play at an average AAC level in really his first
chance to play in competitive situations that would be a big step in the right direction.

If he gets hurt, then all bets are off. I have no idea where Anderson stacks up against Boyle, but
would hope he is outplaying him to date. Davis is hopefully locked into a redshirt, but if BS gets
hurt and the other two struggle it wouldn't shock me to see him this season. It would disappointment me to no end, but not shock me.

Running Backs:
It sounds like better news on Newsome the past week or so. He was a bit of disappointment last season, but it's starting to look like he just wasn't ready and needed a legitimate strength program to be prepared.

Hard to see him getting the majority of the carries, but it would be nice if they could get him 10-12 runs and a few touches in space.

I think everyone expects Ron Johnson to get a bundle of carries, and I agree. He showed some flashes and looks the part, but needs to be more consistent. I wouldn't completely write off DeLorenzo yet, he somehow always manages to keep himself as part of the conversation. Marriner is talented and could carve himself out a fairly big role or be ready to step in and do a good job if someone gets hurt.

Clax has an awesome name.

Receivers:
They really lost a lot here. Davis and Foxx are going to be missed, and while there are a bunch of guys who have shown flashes, there has been almost zero consistently from anyone on the roster.

I think everyone has been waiting for Noel Thomas to break out the last two seasons. Certainly the comments from Diaco are encouraging based on how things worked out for Byron Jones.

Lemelle and Bradley have shown glimpses, but who knows. Seems obvious that some true freshman are going to play, but which ones and how well -you've got me. Beals is the biggest name, but there are plenty of others.

Tight Ends: I think I can sum up this position fairly easily. He who blocks best plays.
McQuillan's departure really hurts them here. They need to get blocking from the position and they
have two sophmores and a bunch of freshman. We've seen Myers and Bloom - I don't know if I saw any separation.

Holman, Campbell, Lee are like a basketball front court. Holman is a cool story and I think can end up a fan favorite if not this season than soon.

Offensive Line:
If you can predict how well the offensive line will play, than I think you can predict how well the team will play.

Knappe and Levy seem locked in their roles. Losing Crozier was a huge blow.

Tyler Samra is the poster child for why I want to try and redshirt as many kids as possible - his career has flown by with little contribution.

Oak, Rutherford, Gifford, Vechery, Hashemi? I guess we'll know a lot more in a few short weeks.

If they can get the line playing at even a serviceable level it would really make an impact to the running game and keeping BS healthy.

If they can't block and the only receiver anyone has to worry about is Thomas, it could get really really ugly at times.

Lot of players looking like misses on this line - it's one area they really need to go out and get some committments and bring in some players ASAP.


Offense Summary:

As the line goes, so goes the offense. I think BS will be pretty decent - maybe a half level below a healthy Lorenzen, which isn't bad for a SO, who hasn't ever really played beyond some mop up time at NC State 2 years ago.

There is more than enough talent in the backfield, that if they block someone will run it.

Since the tight ends are going to have to block, they need receivers to step up - because one man no matter how promising
is not going to keep this offense moving, especially if BS is under constant pressure.

From a scheme perspective, hopefully whatever they do it's more aggressive, doesn't lead to turtleing over turnover fears and we aren't punting from midfield on 4th and short.


Defensive Front 7:

Certainly a lot more fun to talk about and a pretty clear strength.
Campenni and Fatukasi are both very good and Myers is very solid behind them.

Maybe the most interesting players on the roster - they certainly can have a huge impact are Ormsby and Carrezola.

I think we know what we get with Adeyemi and he's pretty good - but if Carrezona and Ormsby can improve and be impact players I think it would be a huge impact and would help cover for some issues at corner. Stapleton is also promising and young.

I think Vann is an excellent player, and Jospeh is clearly thought of very highly by the staff.

Stewart I think is a bit overrated outside of the program based on his stats, but it's the rare player who gets more positive coverage than the fanbase seems to think is warrented.

Diggs will push and if what we are hearing about Walsh is true it's good news. Will be fun to see what Levenberry brings next year.

I think people like the true freshman, but should be enough depth here to utilize some redshirts for a change.


Defensive Backfield:
Lots of chatter about the safties. They are very good, but it would be nice to see Obi play with more consistency.
Both Adams and Melifonwu seem to be constantly knicked up - hopefully they can both stay healthy and on the field - Marder and Lee behind them is a dropoff.

Corners got put in the fire a bit last year after Jones got hurt. If you look at the defensive stats before and after his injury pretty much things fell apart. How much is directly related to his loss? Don't know but certainly some of it.

Summers and Williams showed flashes, hopefully they can cut back on the penalties. Green has been around for a while but we haven't seen much and Hadley seems promising.

McAllister I'm sure will be in the mix soon. Did Nick Vitale move from receiver to cornerback recently?

Garland has been one of the bigger names in the incoming class, but fingers crossed they don't need to play true freshman at corner.

Another spot where they need to keep guys healthy - but if the front 7 can generate more pressure than last year, it will help as I think corner is a bit of weakness relative to the other positions on the roster.


Defensive Summary:
Pretty solid all around. A good amount of depth and a good mix of experience and youth. Need to get more pressure on the QB and could have a pretty
darn good unit on their hands. Let's face it if they win 5-6 games it's going to be because of the defense.


Specials:

Wain got off to a good start I thought last year and then struggled some. Hopefully he can play to that higher level, they could use the help.

Puyol has been decent, solid enough I guess. I hope they don't use Tarbutt as a kickoff specialist. If he wins the job good enough, I haven't heard much on that front.

The return teams have been dreadful the past few seasons. Newsome certainly looks the part - it is certainly an area with room for improvement. Maybe Marriner can
make an impact returning kicks.

The coverage teams have been pretty decent - the roster has a bit more depth so there isn't any reason to take a step back.



Schedule - real point spreads where avail, guesses elsewhere - relative to taking UConn.

My guess at win probability - add them up and you've got the guess for the season

Villanova (+3) 50% chance UConn wins:
Has anyone talked about this game yet? Certainly seems reasonable to me to consider Villanova the favorite.

It's crazy what a huge game this is for Diaco - if they lose this he's going to have to make some serious progress later on for people to get on board/stay on board. It's a huge game for Villanova and I'm sure they won't have any motivation issues.

Personally I think this game is a coinflip. I wish they played Army first and I'd feel a lot better about it.

Army (-10) 90% chance UConn wins:
If they start 0-2, Fishy may need to shut the Boneyard down for a few days. There isn't any reason to lose to Army, they
aren't good and they lost a lot. It's fairly crazy they lost to them last year.

@ Missouri (+33.5) 5% chance UConn wins:
Missouri is off Arkansas State and has Kentucky on deck. So they aren't going to catch them off an emotional game or looking ahead I don't think UConn is 5 touchdown underdog, but I think that 5% might be generous.

Navy (+7) 40% chance UConn wins:
If there is a spot where UConn can jump up and bite someone in the first half of the season this is it to me.

You want Navy off a win against ECU - hopefully close.

Get them at home off their first conference game with Air Force and Notre Dame on deck and you could catch them in a pretty nice letdown spot. I also think Navy is a bit overrated coming into the season.

@BYU (+21) 10% chance UConn wins:
BYU certainly has been getting beat up injury wise, but injuries in college football are almost always overrated except in a few key instances so I don't think that has closed the game much. If Hill is upright UConn is in trouble
They are off Michigan and some other tough games, but have East Carolina on deck so they won't be completely asleep at the wheel.
God the first half of their schedule is brutal - they could be 0-4 going into this.

@UCF (+14/15) 15% chance UConn wins:
Sandwiched at home between Tulane and Temple. Any chance that UConn was going to catch UCF sleeping is gone.
I have a bad feeling this one goes sideways for UConn. I think I'm being generous with the 15%.

USF (-4) 70% chance UConn wins:
South Florida still stinks. They have stunk longer than UConn. They stink on the road and their schedule is brutal the four weeks prior @ FSU, @ Maryland, Memphis, Syracuse. They could show up 1-4 if they don't get the Cuse game.

@Cincinnati (+21/22) 5% chance UConn wins:
A house of horrors for UConn and a much better team they go against. Get them off a trip to BYU and getting UCF at home.

East Carolina: (+6/7) 30% chance UConn wins:
I don't like this ECU team much. They don't wilt on the road though and a weeknight crowd isn't going to bother them.
Off Temple, but only USF the next week.

@Tulane (+8/9): 25% chance UConn wins:
I think I like this Tulane team more than a lot of other people. If Lee is consistent they are all set at QB and they
have some promising players. Off Memphis so maybe a close loss there would make this a better spot. Only have Army the next week though.

Houston (+10/11): 25% chance UConn wins:
This could be getting Houston in a great spot. I think they will challenge for the league and they have a road trip to UConn sandwiched between home games against Memphis and Navy. If they don't win this year they will win fairly soon. What a great staff and they are killing it in recruiting/transfers.

@Temple (+17): 20% chance UConn wins:
20% is probably pretty generous. I am half drinking the Temple Kool-Aid I guess - but they are just further along in their process.
Off Memphis, doubtful they are looking ahead to AAC championship but perhaps.

What a huge opportunity for them the first two weeks. Penn State and @ Cincinnati


Summary: I think there is a pretty wide window of potential results.

If they lose to Villanova, they can't block, BS gets hurt... then 1-2 wins is on the table.

If they beat Nova, line is decent, BS is healthy... they could win 5-6.

The schedule is tougher than people give them credit for and the road/home split is about the opposite of what you'd want.

I'd put 1-2 wins at about a 10% probability, 6 wins at about the same 10% and 7+ at maybe 5% if I'm being generous.


Going into this exercise I was thinking 4, my numbers add up to 3.85.

I am not going to measure success this season on only wins and losses - I don't think it's time for that yet.

I want to see progress from the staff and the especially the offense. I want to see a staff that can coach on gameday and show they learned from last year mistakes. I want to see them close this next class strong.

Anyway a few thousand words later: 4-8 (2-6) incremental progress with hope headed towards 2016.

Well done Whaler...4-5 games is the next logical step rebuilding wise..and like you said..this season all hinges on the OL.

 

[Stainmaster]

Spot-on assessment of the program. Great stuff.

 

[weyuo]

whaler11, Today at 11:02 AM :
"Is there anything worse for a program than having four offensive coordinators in four years?"
Yes. Having 4 different offensive line coaches in 4 years accompanied by a carousel of starting QB'S

Offensive Line:
"Lot of players looking like misses on this line - it's one area they really need to go out and get some commitments and bring in some players ASAP."

Agree 150%!! Unfortunately we won't know how well the coaches are able to recruit O-linemen till signing day but judging by what's coming in so far for the 2016 class I'm a little concerned. No(0) O-linemen have verballed yet and the season is almost upon us.

"Villanova (+3) 50% chance UConn wins:
Has anyone talked about this game yet? Certainly seems reasonable to me to consider Villanova the favorite."

Can't agree there. Nova has lost a couple guys on offense and UConn's defensive front 7 depth is legitimately better than last year. By virtue of UConn being leaner, meaner, faster and stronger they should be able to out muscle the Wildcats on both sides of the ball. I look to this game as a table setter for a better than anticipated UConn Husky team.

I believe UConn will be flirting with the opportunity to get to 6 or 7 wins and a bowl invite but..... I think it's going to come down to them beating Houston and Temple to get there. Is there a possibility for the pups to pull off an upset? Of Course, it's college football for crying out loud. Anything can happen. Consider the what if's had Delorenzo not dropped the bean to start the season, or Byron Jones, Casey Cochran and Geremy Davis being healthy all season. Maybe UConn catches a couple lucky breaks for a change, God knows they are over due.

 

[whaler11]

In honor of your kinds words I stopped at the Dairy Bar

 

[huskypantz]

Great post. To your point on fans, we really do make a difference. It is sad that we're hoping for 30k plus in the seats, but barring an improbable 3-0 start this year is going to be an attendance throwaway. I'm in the 4 win camp and any more than that is really on the back of Shirreffs and the OL. I will say this about the true freshman - aside from OL, DT's and QB I am okay with playing any kid who can get into the 2 deep for the Nova game week. We are still in a roster transition and probably 2 more years away from having a well stocked cupboard. That said, I don't want to see us give a kid 5 snaps in week 2 and then bench him for the rest of the year - hopefully we are past that foolishness.

 

[tjhusky]

Nice well thought out post. You are probably much closer to realty then me, but I just don't want to believe that we go another year without a bowl invite.

I can understand why the national press rates us so low. We $ukt last year, don't look all that much better and with a tough schedule they assume wins will be scarce.

My optimism is...
Defense was fairly good last year. Even with turnover we should be better. If they are solid we may be able to keep all games close. But make your tackles!

Offense. We know most of the story. I am in the camp that we don't need a lot of points but we need to posses and not turn the ball over.

Specials, maybe a good surprise. Overall team fitness is huge here and may help with pursuit and blocking. If kicking is a bit better and Arkeel can work some magic this might be a plus for us.

Villanova and Army. I think we have a decent advantage for both because there is lots of film on their O and 0 film on our 2015 offense. Nova we need to be dominant out of the gate and Army need to burn that option O.

My birthday wish (9/3) 27-10 UCONN.

 

[Dooley]

Excellent post whaler, probably my favorite all-time post of yours. Thorough, cerebral, fair, and the right amount of optimism/pessimism placed in the right areas.

If we can get 30K in our stadium this season, that would be a HUGE statement and step forward towards a P5 invite. Perhaps the most encouraging, yet under-the-radar, news that has come out of this offseason is that UConn is continuing to bet on its football program. Acquiring an extra 25 acres of land for parking is a crucial step towards expanding the stadium for a P5 spot. But that's still a little ways off...we need to take baby steps now and just worry about putting right foot after left foot after right foot and get some Ws.

OL, QB, and DB. Those are my 3 areas of concern for this team. All of the momentum that the OL made towards the end of last year, after a completely dreadful start, has seemingly been wiped clean with a new coach and new scheme. It could be a good thing for us long-term, but we can't afford to get off to such a slow start upfront as we did last season. QB should be cemented as a concern for all UConn fans every year until we can find one. The QB carousel has been as painful to watch as the OC carousel. I hope Shirreffs is the answer. Time will tell. Losing Jones is huge. I liked what I saw from Summers last year, especially in the middle third of the season. I couldn't have been more disappointed in Williams and his inability to turn his head towards the ball and avoid many needless PI calls against him. But he still has the most talent of our CBs so I hope he can put all of it together this year. We'll need it.

I think our defensive front 7 and RBs are the strengths of the team right now. Vann is a beast and I just have a gut feeling that Diggs is going to be a monster for us if "200 level defense" means more OLB pressure. I agree 100% with your assessment of the RBs. Johnson is the man and Newsome needs confidence and muscle (which it seems like he's added this offseason). Newsome screens have the potential to break loose against many defenses we'll face.

Diaco assessment is spot on too. We all know he can recruit, brings tremendous energy, can coach defense, and provides likable quotes...but can he win games? Last year is a complete wash and was treated more like a year-long scrimmage than a regular season. I guess we won't know if Diaco can push the right buttons and make the right winning adjustments until this season but I hope he's surrounded himself with good assistants that can help him out. If he's learned never to punt on 4th and 1 on SMU's 40 yard line ever again, I'll consider that successful offseason progress.

I'd say my floor expectation on the season is 4 wins. The ceiling expectation is probably 6, maybe 7 (although just about everything would need to break right for this to happen). But I agree with you: if our OL comes out of gate sluggish, Shirreffs gets hurt, and we can't stop anybody's air raid offenses, then 1-2 wins is definitely on the table.

I also agree about what you're getting at about 2016. How many redshirts will the coaching staff burn for this year? For argument's sake, if we get out of September with a 3-1 record, will that mean we'll see some true FR with more upside getting PT when a starter goes down? If we get out of September at 1-3, I hope we'll preserve a few RS for the sake of the long term growth of the program. We have a very good class that have given us verbals for next year and, of course, the biggest transfer to come into our program perhaps ever. I think it will truly be bowl game or bust next year. What I would give my left nut for would be something akin to Charlie Strong's start at Louisville: a 6-6 record and bowl game W. You couple that with success on the recruiting trail (like Strong did), and we might be on to something special. That's the extreme optimist in me speaking though. The realist would be every bit as content at 4-8, knocking off a strong opponent during the year at some point, and playing close, competitive games in the majority of our losses...with 30K in the stands!

 

[SubbaBub]

Nova
Army
USF
Tulane are the must wins.

Need one more from
Navy
ECU
UCF

And I'll sign for that right now going into the home game with Houston and at Temple with a shot to win one for a bowl bid. That's what a successful season would look like to me. Very doable if we limit mistakes.

 

[pepband99]

I'm of mostly the same opinion, with one exception - I actually really like our home/road split this year. I don't think playing Cincy, UCF, Tulane, or Temple at home makes a difference this year (barring maybe Tulane). I would rather stack as many home W's as we can get - we need to get the fanbase excited again.

Next year - *maybe* we're close enough that a home crowd helps.