nelsonmuntz
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I refer to the Demographic Cliff in some of my other posts as a major factor about to hit all colleges that will completely transform both higher education and college sports.
Above is one article. There are many, many others available on the web. Starting this year or next year, every future high school graduating class will be smaller than the one before it, and that will continue into eternity. While this "cliff" has been projected and discussed for years, you are seeing some schools, like West Virginia University, blow it and invest in growth just as the market is about to start contracting. WVU is probably finished as a major university. Bad schools in poor states do not survive screwups like that.
Adding to the uncertainty of the future of higher education, is the changing nature of skills needed for success in a modern society. Traditional four years degrees are under some pressure to begin with, and universities have compounded that problem by selling very expensive, useless degrees. Higher education is going to have to rightsize itself, and get more cost effective.
Generally, when an industry starts shrinking, it starts consolidating, and higher education has a lot of the hallmarks of an industry that should shrink and consolidate. Smaller schools have already started merging, and I think there have been a couple in Connecticut (Goodwin and Bridgeport, for example). This trend is going to come for the big schools eventually, and there is a big, fat, juicy target right next door to Connecticut.
Despite being in the fourth largest, and one of the wealthiest states in the country, the SUNY system does not really have an anchor campus. The individual schools are not really competitive from an admissions standpoint, and they are losing students rapidly. The decline in population in upstate New York is a factor, but the reality is that these schools are just not particularly appealing to applicants. The system needs to close down or drastically shrink several of the campuses, but having a strong university based in the state is critical for long-term economic and social development for New York. Either New York has to turn one of its campuses into a top tier research university that also is nationally ranked for students, or, alternatively, merge or affiliate with a university that is a top tier research university. If I was UConn, I would at least open a dialogue with SUNY about what an affiliation or full-blown merger with the SUNY system would look like.
Turning UConn Storrs into the anchor school for the SUNY/UCONN system would catapult UConn at least 10 spots in the college rankings almost immediately. It would be huge for job placement, attracting students, and attracting faculty. The business relationships that UConn/SUNY could leverage would take the school to the next level. And if UConn does not do it, someone else is going to merge with SUNY. The window to make something happen is 5 years, maybe even less. Universities have to overhaul their business model, and can not think small when they do it. Many of today's "national universities" won't be national universities in 10 years.
Finally, while not a justification to merge UConn with SUNY by itself, becoming the anchor campus for SUNY/UConn would certainly change the narrative for UConn in realignment.
A Second Demographic Cliff Adds to Urgency for Change
The demographic cliff we have been anticipating since the drop in births with the 2008 recession now has a younger sibling -- the COVID-19 cliff is coming with another deep drop in recent births.
www.insidehighered.com
Above is one article. There are many, many others available on the web. Starting this year or next year, every future high school graduating class will be smaller than the one before it, and that will continue into eternity. While this "cliff" has been projected and discussed for years, you are seeing some schools, like West Virginia University, blow it and invest in growth just as the market is about to start contracting. WVU is probably finished as a major university. Bad schools in poor states do not survive screwups like that.
Adding to the uncertainty of the future of higher education, is the changing nature of skills needed for success in a modern society. Traditional four years degrees are under some pressure to begin with, and universities have compounded that problem by selling very expensive, useless degrees. Higher education is going to have to rightsize itself, and get more cost effective.
Generally, when an industry starts shrinking, it starts consolidating, and higher education has a lot of the hallmarks of an industry that should shrink and consolidate. Smaller schools have already started merging, and I think there have been a couple in Connecticut (Goodwin and Bridgeport, for example). This trend is going to come for the big schools eventually, and there is a big, fat, juicy target right next door to Connecticut.
Despite being in the fourth largest, and one of the wealthiest states in the country, the SUNY system does not really have an anchor campus. The individual schools are not really competitive from an admissions standpoint, and they are losing students rapidly. The decline in population in upstate New York is a factor, but the reality is that these schools are just not particularly appealing to applicants. The system needs to close down or drastically shrink several of the campuses, but having a strong university based in the state is critical for long-term economic and social development for New York. Either New York has to turn one of its campuses into a top tier research university that also is nationally ranked for students, or, alternatively, merge or affiliate with a university that is a top tier research university. If I was UConn, I would at least open a dialogue with SUNY about what an affiliation or full-blown merger with the SUNY system would look like.
Turning UConn Storrs into the anchor school for the SUNY/UCONN system would catapult UConn at least 10 spots in the college rankings almost immediately. It would be huge for job placement, attracting students, and attracting faculty. The business relationships that UConn/SUNY could leverage would take the school to the next level. And if UConn does not do it, someone else is going to merge with SUNY. The window to make something happen is 5 years, maybe even less. Universities have to overhaul their business model, and can not think small when they do it. Many of today's "national universities" won't be national universities in 10 years.
Finally, while not a justification to merge UConn with SUNY by itself, becoming the anchor campus for SUNY/UConn would certainly change the narrative for UConn in realignment.