The Demographic Cliff and UConn

[nelsonmuntz]

I refer to the Demographic Cliff in some of my other posts as a major factor about to hit all colleges that will completely transform both higher education and college sports.

A Second Demographic Cliff Adds to Urgency for Change

The demographic cliff we have been anticipating since the drop in births with the 2008 recession now has a younger sibling -- the COVID-19 cliff is coming with another deep drop in recent births.

www.insidehighered.com

Above is one article. There are many, many others available on the web. Starting this year or next year, every future high school graduating class will be smaller than the one before it, and that will continue into eternity. While this "cliff" has been projected and discussed for years, you are seeing some schools, like West Virginia University, blow it and invest in growth just as the market is about to start contracting. WVU is probably finished as a major university. Bad schools in poor states do not survive screwups like that.

Adding to the uncertainty of the future of higher education, is the changing nature of skills needed for success in a modern society. Traditional four years degrees are under some pressure to begin with, and universities have compounded that problem by selling very expensive, useless degrees. Higher education is going to have to rightsize itself, and get more cost effective.

Generally, when an industry starts shrinking, it starts consolidating, and higher education has a lot of the hallmarks of an industry that should shrink and consolidate. Smaller schools have already started merging, and I think there have been a couple in Connecticut (Goodwin and Bridgeport, for example). This trend is going to come for the big schools eventually, and there is a big, fat, juicy target right next door to Connecticut.

Despite being in the fourth largest, and one of the wealthiest states in the country, the SUNY system does not really have an anchor campus. The individual schools are not really competitive from an admissions standpoint, and they are losing students rapidly. The decline in population in upstate New York is a factor, but the reality is that these schools are just not particularly appealing to applicants. The system needs to close down or drastically shrink several of the campuses, but having a strong university based in the state is critical for long-term economic and social development for New York. Either New York has to turn one of its campuses into a top tier research university that also is nationally ranked for students, or, alternatively, merge or affiliate with a university that is a top tier research university. If I was UConn, I would at least open a dialogue with SUNY about what an affiliation or full-blown merger with the SUNY system would look like.

Turning UConn Storrs into the anchor school for the SUNY/UCONN system would catapult UConn at least 10 spots in the college rankings almost immediately. It would be huge for job placement, attracting students, and attracting faculty. The business relationships that UConn/SUNY could leverage would take the school to the next level. And if UConn does not do it, someone else is going to merge with SUNY. The window to make something happen is 5 years, maybe even less. Universities have to overhaul their business model, and can not think small when they do it. Many of today's "national universities" won't be national universities in 10 years.

Finally, while not a justification to merge UConn with SUNY by itself, becoming the anchor campus for SUNY/UConn would certainly change the narrative for UConn in realignment.

 

[WrenchFan69]

For some reason, I don't think the University of Connecticut is going to end up as the flagship state university of New York. Meanwhile Stony Brook and Buffalo are co-flagships with AAU and R1 status.

 

[mikeinmanila]

I refer to the Demographic Cliff in some of my other posts as a major factor about to hit all colleges that will completely transform both higher education and college sports.

A Second Demographic Cliff Adds to Urgency for Change

The demographic cliff we have been anticipating since the drop in births with the 2008 recession now has a younger sibling -- the COVID-19 cliff is coming with another deep drop in recent births.

www.insidehighered.com

Above is one article. There are many, many others available on the web. Starting this year or next year, every future high school graduating class will be smaller than the one before it, and that will continue into eternity. While this "cliff" has been projected and discussed for years, you are seeing some schools, like West Virginia University, blow it and invest in growth just as the market is about to start contracting. WVU is probably finished as a major university. Bad schools in poor states do not survive screwups like that.

Adding to the uncertainty of the future of higher education, is the changing nature of skills needed for success in a modern society. Traditional four years degrees are under some pressure to begin with, and universities have compounded that problem by selling very expensive, useless degrees. Higher education is going to have to rightsize itself, and get more cost effective.

Generally, when an industry starts shrinking, it starts consolidating, and higher education has a lot of the hallmarks of an industry that should shrink and consolidate. Smaller schools have already started merging, and I think there have been a couple in Connecticut (Goodwin and Bridgeport, for example). This trend is going to come for the big schools eventually, and there is a big, fat, juicy target right next door to Connecticut.

Despite being in the fourth largest, and one of the wealthiest states in the country, the SUNY system does not really have an anchor campus. The individual schools are not really competitive from an admissions standpoint, and they are losing students rapidly. The decline in population in upstate New York is a factor, but the reality is that these schools are just not particularly appealing to applicants. The system needs to close down or drastically shrink several of the campuses, but having a strong university based in the state is critical for long-term economic and social development for New York. Either New York has to turn one of its campuses into a top tier research university that also is nationally ranked for students, or, alternatively, merge or affiliate with a university that is a top tier research university. If I was UConn, I would at least open a dialogue with SUNY about what an affiliation or full-blown merger with the SUNY system would look like.

Turning UConn Storrs into the anchor school for the SUNY/UCONN system would catapult UConn at least 10 spots in the college rankings almost immediately. It would be huge for job placement, attracting students, and attracting faculty. The business relationships that UConn/SUNY could leverage would take the school to the next level. And if UConn does not do it, someone else is going to merge with SUNY. The window to make something happen is 5 years, maybe even less. Universities have to overhaul their business model, and can not think small when they do it. Many of today's "national universities" won't be national universities in 10 years.

Finally, while not a justification to merge UConn with SUNY by itself, becoming the anchor campus for SUNY/UConn would certainly change the narrative for UConn in realignment.

Interesting take, but what's in it for SUNY? As both a SUNY (undergrad) and UConn (grad school) alum, your comment about "individual (SUNY) schools are not really competitive" is WAY off base, especially when it comes to the university centers (i.e., Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, and Stony Brook), which are both competitive and a relative bargain. I could see some consolidation of the state colleges, but I think that would be a very hard sell. Much more likely that the Connecticut directional colleges shrink (e.g., Eastern Connecticut), than the SUNY colleges. The only way NY state would agree to making UConn a "university center" is if there was a substantial savings via shared resources. Perhaps sharing resources with a "neighboring AAU university" that doesn't have D1 football, would make more sense (e.g., University of Rochester or University of Toronto).

 

[JohnFSilver]

Interesting take, but what's in it for SUNY? As both a SUNY (undergrad) and UConn (grad school) alum, your comment about "individual (SUNY) schools are not really competitive" is WAY off base, especially when it comes to the university centers (i.e., Albany, Binghamton, Buffalo, and Stony Brook), which are both competitive and a relative bargain. I could see some consolidation of the state colleges, but I think that would be a very hard sell. Much more likely that the Connecticut directional colleges shrink (e.g., Eastern Connecticut), than the SUNY colleges. The only way NY state would agree to making UConn a "university center" is if there was a substantial savings via shared resources. Perhaps sharing resources with a "neighboring AAU university" that doesn't have D1 football, would make more sense (e.g., University of Rochester or University of Toronto).

All I know as in Searching for a college for daughter, there really is a paucity of options relative to value .

Going to college in Northeast is very frustrating .

 

[mikeinmanila]

All I know as in Searching for a college for daughter, there really is a paucity of options relative to value .

Going to college in Northeast is very frustrating .

My daughter went to Hamilton College... while a great school, with a solid alumni network, the cost was ridiculous (My son went to Duke, which was cheaper... I think he went there out of spite... LOL)

 

[Waquoit]

Going to college in Northeast is very frustrating .

Supply and demand. Why would anyone go anywhere else these days?

 

[Urcea]

This thread is like crack to me as a SUNY Alum and Nelson Take Enthusiast

 

[businesslawyer]

For some reason, I don't think the University of Connecticut is going to end up as the flagship state university of New York. Meanwhile Stony Brook and Buffalo are co-flagships with AAU and R1 status.

I refer to the Demographic Cliff in some of my other posts as a major factor about to hit all colleges that will completely transform both higher education and college sports.

A Second Demographic Cliff Adds to Urgency for Change

The demographic cliff we have been anticipating since the drop in births with the 2008 recession now has a younger sibling -- the COVID-19 cliff is coming with another deep drop in recent births.

www.insidehighered.com

Above is one article. There are many, many others available on the web. Starting this year or next year, every future high school graduating class will be smaller than the one before it, and that will continue into eternity. While this "cliff" has been projected and discussed for years, you are seeing some schools, like West Virginia University, blow it and invest in growth just as the market is about to start contracting. WVU is probably finished as a major university. Bad schools in poor states do not survive screwups like that.

Adding to the uncertainty of the future of higher education, is the changing nature of skills needed for success in a modern society. Traditional four years degrees are under some pressure to begin with, and universities have compounded that problem by selling very expensive, useless degrees. Higher education is going to have to rightsize itself, and get more cost effective.

Generally, when an industry starts shrinking, it starts consolidating, and higher education has a lot of the hallmarks of an industry that should shrink and consolidate. Smaller schools have already started merging, and I think there have been a couple in Connecticut (Goodwin and Bridgeport, for example). This trend is going to come for the big schools eventually, and there is a big, fat, juicy target right next door to Connecticut.

Despite being in the fourth largest, and one of the wealthiest states in the country, the SUNY system does not really have an anchor campus. The individual schools are not really competitive from an admissions standpoint, and they are losing students rapidly. The decline in population in upstate New York is a factor, but the reality is that these schools are just not particularly appealing to applicants. The system needs to close down or drastically shrink several of the campuses, but having a strong university based in the state is critical for long-term economic and social development for New York. Either New York has to turn one of its campuses into a top tier research university that also is nationally ranked for students, or, alternatively, merge or affiliate with a university that is a top tier research university. If I was UConn, I would at least open a dialogue with SUNY about what an affiliation or full-blown merger with the SUNY system would look like.

Turning UConn Storrs into the anchor school for the SUNY/UCONN system would catapult UConn at least 10 spots in the college rankings almost immediately. It would be huge for job placement, attracting students, and attracting faculty. The business relationships that UConn/SUNY could leverage would take the school to the next level. And if UConn does not do it, someone else is going to merge with SUNY. The window to make something happen is 5 years, maybe even less. Universities have to overhaul their business model, and can not think small when they do it. Many of today's "national universities" won't be national universities in 10 years.

Finally, while not a justification to merge UConn with SUNY by itself, becoming the anchor campus for SUNY/UConn would certainly change the narrative for UConn in realignment.

That is an interesting and thoughtful post. Having said that, for political reasons it's not going to happen. It's more likely that SUNY consolidates a number of campuses and develops a true anchor.

Having said that, even that won't be easily attainable. Look how long after it was no longer economically viable or even useful it took for Connecticut to close down UConn's Torrington campus.

 

[Chuck]

I can't imagine something like a UConn / SUNY combination happening in advance of your cliff. Have you ever seen government entities proactively solve a challenge that hasn't yet become a rallying cry? It would take a tremendous amount of political and financial work to figure out how to combine state university systems and I'd be shocked if either state has the appetite or resources to get it done.

I'm curious about WVU. It's a school in a very poor state that has traditionally brought in a lot of out of state kids because acceptance is very easy. I didn't do research, but I saw that they are dumping a lot of traditional university education departments because of budget and enrollment shortfalls. For example, I think I read they are getting rid of all languages and students would get access to applications. That's crazy to me. I can understand dropping some areas that are underused or valued, but languages seem like a pretty important area. It doesn't look they are trying to grow. They are already feeling that cliff and trying to get rid of traditional liberal arts offerings.

It does suck how hard schools are to get into now when things could so drastically change. I would think the schools with big endowments have the best chance to come out of that cliff relatively healthy. If a school can offer endowed seats to great faculty and lower tuition for top students they could separate from schools that rely on rich kids (or kids taking loans).

 

[Urcea]

That is an interesting and thoughtful post. Having said that, for political reasons it's not going to happen. It's more likely that SUNY consolidates a number of campuses and develops a true anchor.

Having said that, even that won't be easily attainable. Look how long after it was no longer economically viable or even useful it took for Connecticut to close down UConn's Torrington campus.

Great point. Not to get into politics, but the recent shift of power in the NY Senate from upstate/LI to the city should remove some of the special/local interests necessary to close down some of the universities in rural areas, concentrating on the bigger centers. It will be a sad day for those places, many of them being economic drivers of very rural economies, but given problems I know to exist firsthand at the University System Administration level, and what Nelson has elucidated, I think it's inevitable. 63 institutions is a lot

 

[UConnJim]

Yes, there is a demographic shift and some schools will be fine, some schools will struggle, and some schools will go away. I put UConn in the will be fine category. Key to UConn's success will be an active athletic department that helps drive school spirit.

The second biggest issue that schools face is how to reduce the cost of attendance. Schools have to aggressively cut the bureaucracy that they have built up over the years. Cutting bureaucracy is hard for a paternalistic organization run by professional educators. Perhaps schools need business leaders who are used to making the tough decision.

Let's look at WVU cutting their language departments. Why do they have to do it? Cost of attendance has risen so it doesn't make economic sense for students to pay the cost to major in a language so enrollment in the programs drops, but the department costs are fixed due to tenured professors. Falling revenues with fixed costs.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

That is an interesting and thoughtful post. Having said that, for political reasons it's not going to happen. It's more likely that SUNY consolidates a number of campuses and develops a true anchor.

Having said that, even that won't be easily attainable. Look how long after it was no longer economically viable or even useful it took for Connecticut to close down UConn's Torrington campus.

There are a lot of small colleges shutting down or merging up that thought doing something would be impossible because of the politics.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Yes, there is a demographic shift and some schools will be fine, some schools will struggle, and some schools will go away. I put UConn in the will be fine category. Key to UConn's success will be an active athletic department that helps drive school spirit.

The second biggest issue that schools face is how to reduce the cost of attendance. Schools have to aggressively cut the bureaucracy that they have built up over the years. Cutting bureaucracy is hard for a paternalistic organization run by professional educators. Perhaps schools need business leaders who are used to making the tough decision.

Let's look at WVU cutting their language departments. Why do they have to do it? Cost of attendance has risen so it doesn't make economic sense for students to pay the cost to major in a language so enrollment in the programs drops, but the department costs are fixed due to tenured professors. Falling revenues with fixed costs.

Tenure is not the problem. The cost of many professors is actually going up, and foreign language skills are in high demand in the private sector. These are not some middle-aged professors of the Classics with 11 kids per section that are trying to run out the clock until retirement. WVU overbuilt for growth that is never coming, and now has to completely change its approach. They will not be the last school to have to overhaul their entire cost structure to survive.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I can't imagine something like a UConn / SUNY combination happening in advance of your cliff. Have you ever seen government entities proactively solve a challenge that hasn't yet become a rallying cry? It would take a tremendous amount of political and financial work to figure out how to combine state university systems and I'd be shocked if either state has the appetite or resources to get it done.

I'm curious about WVU. It's a school in a very poor state that has traditionally brought in a lot of out of state kids because acceptance is very easy. I didn't do research, but I saw that they are dumping a lot of traditional university education departments because of budget and enrollment shortfalls. For example, I think I read they are getting rid of all languages and students would get access to applications. That's crazy to me. I can understand dropping some areas that are underused or valued, but languages seem like a pretty important area. It doesn't look they are trying to grow. They are already feeling that cliff and trying to get rid of traditional liberal arts offerings.

It does suck how hard schools are to get into now when things could so drastically change. I would think the schools with big endowments have the best chance to come out of that cliff relatively healthy. If a school can offer endowed seats to great faculty and lower tuition for top students they could separate from schools that rely on rich kids (or kids taking loans).

Do I need to provide a list of industries that were never going to change until they had to change all at once? The Demographic Cliff is here, and the cost of schools are already unsustainable. Several things are going to have to give for higher education to survive. Americans learn (sitting in a class, facing a teacher) in fundamentally the same way they did a century ago. It is not like there is not a lot of room for improvement.

While my idea seems radical, it is extremely unlikely that I am the first person to think of merging up public universities. I bet the idea of merging major universities has had a hearing at the top level of most of the investment banking departments at the top 20 banks. The top business schools have already been engaging in partnerships for about 20 years, and they are increasingly becoming managerial coaching and training organizations rather than just business schools. This industry is set to merge. It is not a question of if, only when.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The biggest risk to UConn is Penn State, Rutgers or UMass doing this first.

 

[Fishy]

There is literally no chance that the SUNY system is merging with anyone.

Zero point zero.

SUNY has too many campuses - 64 in total with community colleges and some, like Freedonia, don't make a heck of a lot of sense, but the flagships are fine with great in-state reps with high school kids.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

There is literally no chance that the SUNY system is merging with anyone.

Zero point zero.

SUNY has too many campuses - 64 in total with community colleges and some, like Freedonia, don't make a heck of a lot of sense, but the flagships are fine with great in-state reps with high school kids.

Capturing this post for posterity.

You can look up for yourself all the industries that swore there was a zero-point-zero percent chance they would ever change. Using the Internet is a good place to start to see how different things are than they were 50 or 30 or even 10 years ago.

 

[Waquoit]

Let's look at WVU cutting their language departments. Why do they have to do it?

They don't. It's hack work from a hack.

 

[superjohn]

There is literally no chance that the SUNY system is merging with anyone.

Zero point zero.

SUNY has too many campuses - 64 in total with community colleges and some, like Freedonia, don't make a heck of a lot of sense, but the flagships are fine with great in-state reps with high school kids.

Wait, you don't think the SUNY's are going to merge with UConn? Lolz

 

[zls44]

Capturing this post for posterity.

You can look up for yourself all the industries that swore there was a zero-point-zero percent chance they would ever change. Using the Internet is a good place to start to see how different things are than they were 50 or 30 or even 10 years ago.

He said zero-point-zero chance of merging, not zero-point-zero chance of changing.

 

[zls44]

Perhaps schools need business leaders who are used to making the tough decision.

"business leaders" are batting rougly .050 in the public sector, but keep on believing

 

[nelsonmuntz]

He said zero-point-zero chance of merging, not zero-point-zero chance of changing.

So the argument for doing nothing is that a lot of entities that look very similar and have redundant cost structures will all continue to remain independent until infinity despite the market for their services shrinking and a need to dramatically reduce costs. Yeah, that's how the world works.

 

[uconnyankee]

All I know as in Searching for a college for daughter, there really is a paucity of options relative to value .

Going to college in Northeast is very frustrating .

Same thing. Have two in college.
One is at RIT on army scholarship.

Our daughter who was national honor society, 3.6 GPA couldn’t get sniff at UMass for nursing.

Going to JMU which I find to be amazing value. Beautiful campus, strong school spirit, 20K students. Schools is growing. Doesn’t have academic reputation of other VA schools.

Schools up north are going to have a challenge. They will need more students, but need to keep their acceptance rates low to maintain elite status.

All comes down to cheap money that students borrow, inflated tuitions, lead to inflated capital spend and administration creep. Schools have lost their way.

A correction is much needed.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Just paying professors less like they do in the South is not going to result in a better education or attract more students. I think a lot of those schools are going to struggle to attract quality students as the more competitive schools' acceptance rates tick up.

There is a fundamental overhaul needed to how education is delivered.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Same thing. Have two in college.
One is at RIT on army scholarship.

Our daughter who was national honor society, 3.6 GPA couldn’t get sniff at UMass for nursing.

Going to JMU which I find to be amazing value. Beautiful campus, strong school spirit, 20K students. Schools is growing. Doesn’t have academic reputation of other VA schools.

Schools up north are going to have a challenge. They will need more students, but need to keep their acceptance rates low to maintain elite status.

All comes down to cheap money that students borrow, inflated tuitions, lead to inflated capital spend and administration creep. Schools have lost their way.

A correction is much needed.

Exactly. I know I love the UConn gets 50,000 apps and has a 52% acceptance rate, but…

What’s the point of my daughter gets into Colorado-Boulder and ends up living out there? Or, down to Florida directional?

There are so many CT residents who have to leave the state for school because Storrs isn’t an option. And, QPex and SHU are too small imo.