Questions for Baylor game

[alexrgct]

Yesterday marked the anniversary of UConn's first loss of the 2012-13 season, a shocking/appalling loss to Notre Dame by a point at Gampel. For some reason, I keep having the Baylor question nagging me: could Baylor pull off a repeat of January 5, 2013?

UConn is definitively favored to win on 1/13, but there are some questions I'd like to know the answers to.

Just how good is Odyssey Sims?

If Sims has a good game and Baylor defeats UConn, you can pencil in Sims for NPOY. She's already a strong candidate. Is she the best player in the country? Can she carry Baylor by herself?

What does the Kentucky loss mean?

By losing in 4OT, Baylor could well be construed as about at the same level as the 'Cats. Based on UConn's ownership of UK, not to mention of Duke (who beat Kentucky themselves this season), this would sound like good news. But is Baylor actually better than UK? Was the regulation 40 minutes between the two, which of course ended in a tie score, actually fluky?

How much does UConn want this game?

Obviously, UConn wants to win every game and prove they're the best in the country. But this game specifically has been intense with some crushing losses for both programs (Baylor in the 2010 Final Four and by a point in November 2010, UConn by five and six points in 2011 and 2013). Is UConn likely to be especially jacked to beat Baylor in Waco?

In the two losses to Baylor, would the Bears have had any chance against UConn without Griner?

Griner clearly led the charge late, forcing Uconn to squander leads the last two times UConn faced Baylor. Does it mean that, without BG, The Bears have no chance to come back on UConn, even with Sims, if UConn takes a double-digit lead?

Do any of Baylor's "bad wins" give more pause than UConn's?

Really, Baylor has played a mediocre game or two but still won by 28+. Baylor's seven-point win over Ole Miss, and even the 25-pointer over McNeese State, were not awe-inspiring. Should that be giving us even more confidence?

Well, that's about the size of things for me. I'm on pins and needles, albeit confident, and would love to read other people's thoughts on Baylor.

 

[UcMiami]

Sims is playing fantastic.
Baylor has a plus 300 ranking in terms of SOS this year. With the exception of the KY loss, they have not played another team ranked higher than 100 to date so it is hard to say how they will react to a really good team and especially a really good defensive team. They have a few good players besides Sims, but she IS Baylor this year.
Uconn wants this game and Stewie will be fully focused, something she might not be against the UCFs of the world.
Without Griner Baylor would not have beaten Uconn nor would they have reached a FF. They will be pressed to do so this year even with Sims.
Kim is good, but I thought the Louisville loss was a direct result of bad coaching last year. Geno has had a few bad coaching games in his career including at least one ND loss, but ND was and is a better team than Louisville. You can count Uconn's bad losses over the last 14 years on one hand and Geno's bad coaching games on the other hand. I don't think you could say the same for any other team or coach in sports over the same period. A truly remarkable record and why he may be the best coach in the world in any sport - his teams do not beat themselves and he doesn't make mistakes.
Could Uconn lose - yes, anything is possible, but not likely. (They could have lost to Duke, too, but they didn't.

 

[Wbbfan1]

I don't think Baylor will beat UConn but it should be an interesting game. Lately it doesn't seem that Geno has a lock-down defender like most of his other Championship teams have had. It will be interesting to see if this team will be able to hold Sims to less then her 30 PPG average. I'm beginning to think not. However, I don't think Baylor has enough other weapons to beat UConn. However if Sims is able to score 40 points, then anything could happen.

 

[msf22b]

Sims stats are pretty amazing: 30.8 points on 50.9 % shooting, .417 on 3's, almost 82% on foul shots.
Against your typical team she's unstoppable.

It will be interesting to see what Geno throws at her and whether she can be discouraged.
I think we'll see a slightly different approach to how he defends guards in general.

I suspect he won't be as encouraging as usual for her to go to the weak side.
You don't want her in the paint at all if possible.
Perhaps double-teaming and pressuring early to prevent the ball getting into her hands at all or having to give it up.
Just my guess.

I agree with Wbbfan that even with all the steals and blocks, there is not one lock-down defender emerging yet.
But with the ball firmly in Sims' hands, a few steals from Mo might discourage her to have no more than an average game
Which might be just enough for a comfortable win.

 

[HGN]

IT WILL BE A FANTASTIC GAME........Griner was a difference maker when she was there , on both ends of the court. But they no longer have Griner or anyone even close to that dominance in the middle. Griner , Pope ,. and Sims WAS Baylor 2 years ago. But Griner is gone. And Pope is gone....Sims is all alone now. So Sims is having to score 40+% of the points every game out in order to give Baylor a chance to win.

We have no one that can stop Sims. She is just too big for MoJeff ; and too big , fast , and strong for Bria. Therefore , I think she WILL get her 30. And I think Geno will concede that. Problem for Baylor is UConn will shut everybody else down. Sims will only get very LIMITED help. And Baylor has to try to deal with the UConn weapons on the other end of the floor. And I don't think they have a stopper for anybody in blue. Especially since they no longer have a Griner back there or a Pope. Plus, our bench will make a positive difference. Tuck , Chong , Stokes , and Banks are a force. UConn should win this game by 15+.... even in Waco.

 

[UcMiami]

On the lock down defender issue - agree - but the team is also playing a ton of zone compared to previous years. I suspect it is Geno using games to practice zone in case of a bad foul night.

 

[intlzncster]

For some reason, I keep having the Baylor question nagging me: could Baylor pull off a repeat of January 5, 2013?

Very very unlikely.

Just how good is Odyssey Sims?

Sims has to have a big game, and likely will play well. But Baylor's not good enough (compared to UCONN) at the other positions for it to matter.

What does the Kentucky loss mean?

Not much. Losing to another team doesn't necessarily tell you about how good a team is. Eye test is better. What if their team simply plays to the competition?

How much does UConn want this game?

The kids seem to relish this type of game (see Duke), because there is so few of them. Much harder to get up for an average opponent.

In the two losses to Baylor, would the Bears have had any chance against UConn without Griner?

No. She is unique, and that created a mismatch which was difficult to handle. Maybe if UCONN didn't have Maya as well?

Do any of Baylor's "bad wins" give more pause than UConn's?

Not really. They will be up for this game too. Again, what if their team simply plays to the competition?

UCONN will crush Baylor, unless Baylor plays great and UCONN majorly shoots themselves in the foot. That's what it would take. If UCONN plays well, they will roll. Not arrogant, there's just too much talent and teamwork on this team.

People try to analyze this team so much, but UCONN is just so much better than anyone else. It's arguing why they only won by 25 when it "should" have been 50. If they don't run the table, it will be a bit of an underachievement.

 

[HuskyPup]

IMO Baylor has to do more adjusting to what UConn does than the other way around. Geno/CD of course will have a game plan for Sims but does anyone know if Baylor lives or dies from the outside? In a few games this year it appears that a couple of the opposing guards have had great games against UConn. Hopefully this doesn't happen with Sims. We have too much firepower inside. My concern is defensively can we afford to play zone if KML , Stewie or Stef get into early foul trouble. It appears that our 2-3 zone at times leave shooters with uncontested open 3's. If Baylor starts hitting 3's this will lead to more confidence and once a team gets confidence sometimes they actually believe they have a chance...ie St. Johns.....thoughts?

 

[BooRadley]

A great many here have a much higher Bball IQ than I do these days and have a far far better grasp of the play of our opponents play than I do, so my sense of this game isn't very good... I'm not really sure of what to expect other than to expect uncertainty until the final horn blows. It is a test that I'm looking forward to and one that I know we can pass, but OS is one fabulous player that could create havoc for us... Most games I have suspicion of the character of the game and as I said, this one is a bit of a mystery to me... and I love mystery...that delicious uncertain, uneasy feeling.

YOPB

 

[Tonyc]

Sims is the best guard in the country and a terrific player however will not get inside against UConn and that will hurt her shooting percentage. UConn will score almost at will underneath. If Sims scores 40 who else will score for Baylor? I like Kim as a coach shes very feisty. However with Griner she only won 1 NC and had 1 undefeated season. UConn wins this game by 20+ .

 

[UConnCat]

Sims is a terrific player and a handful to defend but Baylor has a lot more to worry about in this game than UConn.

I don't think Kentucky played any zone against Baylor (if so it was late in the game) but did some double-teaming on ball screens and whenever Sims went left (which she does often). There's not a player in WCBB who can defend Sims 1-on-1 and keep her out of the lane so I do expect UConn to try to force her to go right, to give up the ball with double teams and to make outside shots by playing some zone. UConn has more and better shot-blockers than most teams so Sims' floater will need to be working. By the end of the night, Sims will have taken a lot of shots and scored a lot of points but it won't be enough. Baylor's defense gave up 90 points to Kentucky (in regulation) and 80 points to Miss.

Baylor travels to Morgantown on Wed night and I'll be interested to see what Mike Carey has in store for Sims.

 

[sawxfan23]

Sims is the best guard in the country and a terrific player however will not get inside against UConn and that will hurt her shooting percentage. UConn will score almost at will underneath. If Sims scores 40 who else will score for Baylor? I like Kim as a coach shes very feisty. However with Griner she only won 1 NC and had 1 undefeated season. UConn wins this game by 20+ .

I couldn't agree more Tonyc. As good is Sims is she probably scores 50% or more of her points on driving and shooting a layup. If you watched the game she had against Kentucky that's all she did and that just WIL NOT HAPPPEN against UConn with Stewie, Dolson, and Stokes patrolling the paint. I think that Sims will have to work extremely hard to score 20 pts and that UConn will win in a relative laugher.

 

[pap49cba]

My biggest concern is not the number of points she scores but that her relentless driving to the hoop gets a couple of our bigs and/or KML in early foul trouble. She has been shooting a LOT of FTs.

 

[msf22b]

And Morgan is a capable defender against this type of opponent; she guarded McBride qute successfully for streches of the win over ND.

 

[Icebear]

My biggest concern is not the number of points she scores but that her relentless driving to the hoop gets a couple of our bigs and/or KML in early foul trouble. She has been shooting a LOT of FTs.

One advantage UCONN has in dealing with that is that Stef is very disciplined staying straight up and Stewie doesn't need to be near the driver to close and block the shot.

 

[pap49cba]

One advantage UCONN has in dealing with that is that Stef is very disciplined staying straight up and Stewie doesn't need to be near the driver to close and block the shot.

I agree but if you think about it, this is sort of the strategy Muffet has employed the past several years. Jump into the defender and get to the line.

 

[Paul1969]

My friend is flying out from California to stay with me in Texas. Look for us. We will be wearing blue spiked wigs

 

[easttexastrash]

I couldn't agree more Tonyc. As good is Sims is she probably scores 50% or more of her points on driving and shooting a layup. If you watched the game she had against Kentucky that's all she did and that just WIL NOT HAPPPEN against UConn with Stewie, Dolson, and Stokes patrolling the paint. I think that Sims will have to work extremely hard to score 20 pts and that UConn will win in a relative laugher.

I won't be laughing...

 

[baggerbob]

Stewie isn't going to play 7 minutes, and score 0 points this year. That performance in last years game doesn't bode well for Baylor, she erased all thoughts of Notre Dame in the semi-final last year, you can bet she's waited for this game since last year.

 

[pap49cba]

Time for a walk down memory lane....

 

[Icebear]

Little Miss Histrionic

 

[johnnyc]

Lately it doesn't seem that Geno has a lock-down defender like most of his other Championship teams have had.

Lock down by committee close to the basket. Your not going to have too much of an inside game against the likes of Stewart, Dolson and Stokes hanging around there. So teams might start going inside out to get open 3s like Memphis and UCF did. If they fall it looks like bad defense but some of those shots were taken well beyond the arc.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Sims may get 40 but that's fine if she takes 35 shots to get it. No one defender can stop her but we can throw avlot of different things at her and make her work hard for what she gets.

UConn by about 25. Of course as ETT knows all too well every once in a great while a 25 point favorite loses.

 

[easttexastrash]

Time for a walk down memory lane....

This pic is even better than my avatar.

 

[easttexastrash]

Sims may get 40 but that's fine if she takes 35 shots to get it. No one defender can stop her but we can throw avlot of different things at her and make her work hard for what she gets.

UConn by about 25. Of course as ETT knows all too well every once in a great while a 25 point favorite loses.

Not in this game. I agree that UCONN wins by 25+. Baylor has one great player...UCONN has several.