Non-Key Tweets

[jostar1]

MH3 @MH3 · 22h 22 hours ago
FOX has pledged to rework the B12 contract if the additions can increase the conference's national footprint by 1 timezone and at least 25%

MH3 @MH3 · 21h 21 hours ago
Big12 currently has a footprint of a paltry 16 million tv households. So any additions will have to add at least 4 million more

MH3 @MH3 · 21h 21 hours ago
The extra timezone gives Fox an extra slot to put a B12 match-up in every other week.

 

[Dooley]

Gee, I wonder what school is available in a different time zone that can bring a ton of TV sets to FOX???

 

[Doggie Style]

Gee, I wonder what school is available in a different time zone that can bring a ton of TV sets to FOX???

A....... ton!

 

[upstater]

Gee, I wonder what school is available in a different time zone that can bring a ton of TV sets to FOX???

Isn't West Virginia in the eastern time zone?

No schools in Mountain West.

 

[uchusky32]

Gee, I wonder what school is available in a different time zone that can bring a ton of TV sets to FOX???

Is it Temple?

 

[Dooley]

Is it Temple?

I was thinking UMass and Buffalo. Right after Memphis parlays their one winning season into a SEC invite, of course.

 

[Dooley]

Isn't West Virginia in the eastern time zone?

No schools in Mountain West.

Good point. BYU and Colorado State then.

 

[clmssun]

Isn't West Virginia in the eastern time zone?

No schools in Mountain West.

I would say BYU satisfies MH's conjecture here.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

Gee, I wonder what school is available in a different time zone that can bring a ton of TV sets to FOX???

That still points to BYU (Mountain) and Cincinati (Eastern) time zones, adds to the XII's home time zone (Central), except for WVU, which is Eastern.

 

[Dooley]

That still points to BYU (Mountain) and Cincinati (Eastern) time zones, adds to the XII's home time zone (Central), except for WVU, which is Eastern.

Cincinnati doesn't bring 4M TV sets in any possible DMA division scenario. UCF/USF would bring more TV sets than Cincinnati as would UCONN if you give UCONN its fair stake into NYC and Boston.

 

[pj]

Isn't West Virginia in the eastern time zone?

No schools in Mountain West.

West Virginia brings negligible audience in the Eastern Time Zone. Fox already has Pacific and Mountain time zone content through its Pac-12 agreement, and Central time zone content with the B12. It is looking for East Coast households.

It's hard for me to see Fox pushing for anything other than UConn and UCF as the top two choices, if TV markets are the dominant factor. BYU is another possibility depending on how the numbers play out.

 

[Marty Jackson]

this is it folks... this is the one we've known is coming all along.
sit back, relax, and wait for the Big 12 to come calling.

Oh, and you might want to strap on that steel reinforced cup because this one is gonna hit square in the nuts and is gonna hurt like a mother. Not sure how it's gonna happen, but we're all aware of the Uconn Law of CR.

 

[Dooley]

this is it folks... this is the one we've known is coming all along.
sit back, relax, and wait for the Big 12 to come calling.

Oh, and you might want to strap on that steel reinforced cup because this one is gonna hit square in the nuts and is gonna hurt like a mother. Not sure how it's gonna happen, but we're all aware of the Uconn Law of CR.

Memphis would be the biggest sack kicker for me. So I'm guessing their invite is already in the mail along with Temple.

 

[NC_Uconn_Fan]

Memphis would be the biggest sack kicker for me. So I'm guessing their invite is already in the mail along with Temple.

Yeah, Memphis would do me in as well.

 

[pj]

Questions for the B12:
1. How much does geographic proximity matter? (= 1 Cincy, 2 BYU, 3 UCF, 4 UConn)
2. How much do football recruiting grounds matter? (= 1 UCF, 2 Cincy, UPDATE 3 UConn, 4 BYU)
3. How much do TV markets matter? (=1 UConn, 2a/b UCF, BYU, 4 Cincy)
4. How much does football quality matter? (1a/b BYU, Cincy, 3 UCF, 4 UConn)
5. How much does basketball matter? (1 UConn, 2a/b Cincy, BYU, 4 UCF)

We win only on 3 and 5.

But since money is the crucial issue, #3 might trump everything else.

If they go to 14 schools, we must be in.

But if they go to 14, the conference is a ticking time bomb that explodes when the TV deal / GoR expires. Can't see such a far-flung uncohesive group sticking together once the B1G, SEC, Pac, and ACC can launch a bidding war for the best properties.

 

[upstater]

Questions for the B12:
1. How much does geographic proximity matter? (= 1 Cincy, 2 BYU, 3 UCF, 4 UConn)
2. How much do football recruiting grounds matter? (= 1 UCF, 2 Cincy, 3 BYU, 4 UConn)
3. How much do TV markets matter? (=1 UConn, 2a/b UCF, BYU, 4 Cincy)
4. How much does football quality matter? (1a/b/c BYU, Cincy, UCF, 4 UConn)
5. How much does basketball matter? (1 UConn, 2a/b Cincy, BYU, 4 UCF)

We win only on 3 and 5.

But since money is the crucial issue, #3 might trump everything else.

Utah does not have great recruiting, but BYU draws a lot from Hawaii and the west coast. Mormons everywhere, obviously. They recruit better than UConn, but the Mountain West in general is in the last quartile of recruits per capita, ahead of only New England (with Connecticut being the only state in NE alongside places like Iowa or Utah). Heck, Wisconsin doesn't do that well for football either.

 

[pj]

Utah does not have great recruiting, but BYU draws a lot from Hawaii and the west coast. Mormons everywhere, obviously. They recruit better than UConn, but the Mountain West in general is in the last quartile of recruits per capita, ahead of only New England (with Connecticut being the only state in NE alongside places like Iowa or Utah). Heck, Wisconsin doesn't do that well for football either.

Upon reflection BYU should be 4th. I was thinking that BYU recruits well among Mormons and would bring more recruits into the conference ... but if schools care about how many recruits a school brings into the B12's existing schools, then BYU obviously doesn't help bring Mormons to Oklahoma or Texas based on the chance of playing against BYU. Whereas UCF can bring Florida recruits to Oklahoma and Texas based on the chance to play games near home. (Updated the original post to swap UConn and BYU.)

 

[Dooley]

Questions for the B12:
1. How much does geographic proximity matter? (= 1 Cincy, 2 BYU, 3 UCF, 4 UConn)
2. How much do football recruiting grounds matter? (= 1 UCF, 2 Cincy, 3 BYU, 4 UConn)
3. How much do TV markets matter? (=1 UConn, 2a/b UCF, BYU, 4 Cincy)
4. How much does football quality matter? (1a/b BYU, Cincy, 3 UCF, 4 UConn)
5. How much does basketball matter? (1 UConn, 2a/b Cincy, BYU, 4 UCF)

We win only on 3 and 5.

But since money is the crucial issue, #3 might trump everything else.

If they go to 14 schools, we must be in.

But if they go to 14, the conference is a ticking time bomb that explodes when the TV deal / GoR expires. Can't see such a far-flung uncohesive group sticking together once the B1G, SEC, Pac, and ACC can launch a bidding war for the best properties.

If the B12 listens to FOX and makes their expansion list based on TV sets / money, and not based on 2014 football W/L record, then UCONN has to be near the top of that list.

 

[pj]

If the B12 listens to FOX and makes their expansion list based on TV sets / money, and not based on 2014 football W/L record, then UCONN has to be near the top of that list.

I think it's likely Fox wants UConn. Then the question is what does ESPN want. Why should ESPN give money to the B12 to take UConn and UCF, which it now owns 100%, and give them 50% to Fox, helping Fox get East Coast viewers? I can't see ESPN supporting that unless the state of Connecticut and the B12 are somehow able to pressure them.

Which in turn raises the question of what the B12 wants. If they want their conference to stick together long-term, I doubt they'd want a larger multi-time-zone non-culturally-linked monstrosity. So why would they push ESPN hard on this?

B12 expansion still seems unlikely to me but CR in general has had a lot of surprising twists and turns.

 

[CL82]

Isn't West Virginia in the eastern time zone?

No schools in Mountain West.

Don't pee on the parade Upstater.

 

[Dooley]

I think it's likely Fox wants UConn. Then the question is what does ESPN want. Why should ESPN give money to the B12 to take UConn and UCF, which it now owns 100%, and give them 50% to Fox, helping Fox get East Coast viewers? I can't see ESPN supporting that unless the state of Connecticut and the B12 are somehow able to pressure them.

Which in turn raises the question of what the B12 wants. If they want their conference to stick together long-term, I doubt they'd want a larger multi-time-zone non-culturally-linked monstrosity. So why would they push ESPN hard on this?

B12 expansion still seems unlikely to me but CR in general has had a lot of surprising twists and turns.

I agree with you. I would think that the State would try to mediate with ESPiN should they play hardball and refuse to turn over UCONN's dirt cheap rights to FOX. Maybe along the lines of even more tax incentives or land to expand their campus.

 

[upstater]

I think it's likely Fox wants UConn. Then the question is what does ESPN want. Why should ESPN give money to the B12 to take UConn and UCF, which it now owns 100%, and give them 50% to Fox, helping Fox get East Coast viewers? I can't see ESPN supporting that unless the state of Connecticut and the B12 are somehow able to pressure them.

Which in turn raises the question of what the B12 wants. If they want their conference to stick together long-term, I doubt they'd want a larger multi-time-zone non-culturally-linked monstrosity. So why would they push ESPN hard on this?

B12 expansion still seems unlikely to me but CR in general has had a lot of surprising twists and turns.

ESPN can hardly care about what it owns with the AAC. And it has contract provisions to cut the contract in the event someone leaves. The question then becomes for ESPN, if the B12 MUST add schools, would ESPN rather pay a per school $$ amount with good return (UConn) or one with kinda bad return (Memphis).

I see this as being in UConn's favor. The only thing working against it is UConn women's basketball. ESPN is getting an absolute freebie there.

 

[brasssbonanzaa]

That still points to BYU (Mountain) and Cincinati (Eastern) time zones, adds to the XII's home time zone (Central), except for WVU, which is Eastern.

The Mountain Time Zone is not desirable to TV networks, frankly, it's a death trap for them in terms of eyeballs and advertising $. BYU's location is not a strength of its profile, and in fact, may be a detractor. TV valuation of BYU would rely heavily on anticipated viewership in the EST and PST zones.

Not to mention from a geography perspective, BYU's closest conference opponent would be nearly 900 miles away, but that didn't stop the B12 the first time with WVU.

 

[Kolumbo]

this one won't hurt a bit. The Big 12 could invite Temple for all I care. Big 12 is not inviting UCONN over much better football schools. Period. The only place UCONN to the Big 12 is being discussed is on this board.

 

[pj]

ESPN can hardly care about what it owns with the AAC. And it has contract provisions to cut the contract in the event someone leaves. The question then becomes for ESPN, if the B12 MUST add schools, would ESPN rather pay a per school $$ amount with good return (UConn) or one with kinda bad return (Memphis).

I see this as being in UConn's favor. The only thing working against it is UConn women's basketball. ESPN is getting an absolute freebie there.

If the B12 MUST add schools, ESPN can tell them that they need to pay for it (accepting a drop in per-school revenue). ESPN doesn't have to pay for it. There is no circumstance under which they will need to pay for Memphis. If Memphis is added, it is because Fred Smith is paying for them.

The AAC contract is expiring soon so ESPN could view UConn and UCF and Cincy as free agents. So you have a valid point that ESPN's ownership of the AAC may not factor. But their hostility to Fox may matter. ESPN may want to reserve UConn and potentially for others for the ACC. So it might want to block B12 expansion.