How good is UConn really

[mudblood]

Opponents' scoring average (called "Scoring Defense") and opponents' field goal percentage (called "Field Goal Percentage Defense") are typically used by many (including writers and commentators) to assess whether a particular's team defense is "good" or "bad". But they are both simplistic and imperfect, to say the least. (btw, by these two criteria, SC ranks #10 and #1, and UConn #81 and #40) The problem is that they don't take into account at all the offensive capabilities of the actual opponents faced by each team.

There are other ranking systems that both (1) take into account the offensive and defensive strengths of the actual opponents (similar to ELO ratings in chess) and (2) create a weighted score of more than these two stats. The best publicly available system is Massey's ratings (Massey Ratings - College Basketball Women's : NCAA D1 Ratings), updated daily. There are other even more refined systems (but proprietary).

According to Massey's today (taking into account all games until yesterday):

• SC is #1 defense, #2 offense, #1 power, overall #1
• UConn is #6 defense, #3 Offense, #2 power, overall #5

And given todays results, I believe we may be up a notch tomorrow.

We have become really, really good

 

[BBallF]

Yes ND is a very big game for all the reasons pointed out above but let's not lose focus on Wednesday and then the two games after that. We are still growing, forming and filling in the blanks, especially Q'n Ice. Every game seems to bring more of what we need and we seem to be improving every game and importantly, Paige is becoming more Paige-like each game. Let's just enjoy the ride. They are a lot of fun to watch for sure.

 

[Monte]

Yes, the Notre Dame game will tell a lot. There are 10 more games after that; if needed, adjustments can be made and hopefully, improvements will continue.

 

[Tonyc]

Look at who they played They played one team that Ive never heard of and that team scored 19 pts Please

 

[ctkaiser]

The only thing I worry about when playing other teams is our fouls. If we can keep them from getting out of hand we can beat ANYBODY

You had to mention fouls! It's all too true. Have seen some bizarre refereeing especially the overly physical Georgetown game with lack of calls. I fear the bad officials more than the lack of size and rebounding. What I thought might be a problem with too many point guards has turned into a strength. The way the first year players has improved has been unrealand that Paige she's gonna be good.

 

[Rowdy831]

I think ND is a better barometer for UConn than South Carolina. ND has good length but not nearly as complete a team as South Carolina so if they can beat a team with length ND will be the evidence. The issue UConn will have is length neutralizes AE on both ends and also brings foul trouble into play. Ice has picked up some since Aubrey went down and that would be huge for UConn if that continues.

The Big East is awful outside of UConn and none of the other teams have any length which UConn needs for their development. If they go the rest of the way with one loss they will certainly be at least a 2 seed and if they get lucky in the draw could make it to 8 before a bad match up and at that point anything can happen.

UConn has looked better on defense and it will be interesting when they play ND to see what they look like against a team with a couple quality guards. LSU lost today and they also have some things to work on, in fact quite a few more than UConn. I predict UConn will break into the top 10 this week.

 

[Kevin G]

I am so glad that our freshmen are getting so much playing time. This is something that I’ve always disliked about Geno’s coaching over the past 7-8 years specifically. I started to think our freshmen were underdeveloped due to lack of playing time compared to other programs.

 

[Soxx]

If I was a coach of the opposition, I would be very worried about our 4 guards. Their defense is relentless and they are enjoying playing this way. On offense, the four can hit the three, hit the jumper inside the arc with devastating accuracy. And they drive the lane and drop dimes to those that are open. Plus, these guards are fast, especially KK.

Many teams we play have 6' 2" or 6' 3" or 6' 4" post players or forwards. None have proven to be a match for Aaliyah and now Ice. Yes SC has Cardoso and UCLA has Betts. So we deal with it. Geno and company has dealt with this before. The knowledge is there to defend them and I believe we have the talent. And one never knows, Amari may yet prove to be a major factor.

Major? Would love to believe that. She has shown a bit more spark in the past two games, but is still contributing minimally.

 

[Bone Dog]

Ummm. Edwards played 29 minutes because of foul trouble and had only 4 rebounds for the game. Boston had 26 and 11 and Cardoso had 17 and 11. Edwards did shoot well. But the rest was not so great. To be fair, Juhasz had a very subpar game. The two SC bigs had 43 points and 22 rebounds. Edwards and Juhasz had 30 and 11 combined.

Ummm? Whatever. The rest was what we needed to keep the game close. I'm not going to find fault with what Aaliyah did.

If Aaliyah scores 25 on 10-14 again, I think UConn has a shot. Kamila has already shown that she can't prevent it even with an NPoY center playing next to her. SC is going to win the rebounding battle no matter what. But the game won't be decided there.

Can Paige replicate what Lou did last time? I think we all know the answer to that one. What we need to see is how Ash and KK will play. Ice doesn't need to do much more than what Dorka did, which is well within her abilities. And will Nika be able to replicate her previous performance? What's the formula here -- can the girls keep SC to around 80 and score something similar?

I think this means Ice Ash KK and Q need to score something like 25 points combined to go along with the 60+ points Paige Nika and Aaliyah are capable of. I don't doubt the seniors. I only wonder whether the freshmen can produce with the amount of pressure they'll be under in this game.

 

[Majic Hands]

1: Being in the BE is an improvement over the previous conference affiliation. Period.

2: The team is improving every game.

3: KK & Ash's level of play was exceeding expectations by the 2nd or 3rd game they played in and continues improving every game. Both have games that are developing and I won't call them sophomore's just yet but by the time the conference tournament arrives. . . Oh Ya.

4: Ice is clearly figuring it out. As far as the fadeaway, I think I get what the commentators familiar with Geno & the program are saying. Wanting Ice to go towards the basket to score and possibly get an and 1. I agree it's much more valuable than a 30-40% fadeaway. Clearly shooting from two feet is more effective than an off balance eight footer. Yes! It's a valuable TOOL to have if you're playing someone who is bigger & longer or being double teamed.

5: Perhaps Q has worked through the freshman wall. With her fellow freshman getting dialed in that might help her get through the wall quickly. What's her defense going to be by conference tournament??? I'm in agreement with those who think her shooting will get better as her defense improves.

6: Nika has expanded her game and still does everything she's always done but perhaps with a bit more maturity.

7: Paige is begging to look more like what I remember every game. I truly think she continued developing her game when she was on the sideline from an intellectual standpoint. I think she's still knocking off some rust, trusting her body and integrating her expanded knowledge into her game.

8: Inês has the potential to provide breathers for KK, Ash and Nika as well as filling in if they get into foul trouble? Hopefully she gets enough minutes during conferences to prove it to Coach.

9: Aaliyah seems to be consistent. The last three years I could swear she's starts the year really ragged. Then she starts putting it together and starts playing at a higher level. With her being consistently better, especially with defenses having to shift to the perimeter to defend the 3 she is going to have more room to operate. Unfortunately, I cringe every time I see her getting ready to take that shot that's a step or two inside the Three point line. It seems flat and comes hard off the back rim.

10: I'm hoping that Amari can get 10-12 minutes through the remaining conference schedule. At that point everyone would know if she's going to get minutes in the following tournaments.

Regardless how things go I'm enjoying how the kids are executing and approaching the game.

My BIGGEST relief is that this year Paige is on the floor with four other players attacking the basement. Four other players taking it to the opponents and getting her the ball where she can do Paige things. Nobody is waiting to see what she's going to do. Golly-Gee what a sense of freedom Paige must be feeling.

 

[Conndog]

I think the key against SC is whether Aaliyah can stay in the game or has to sit due to foul trouble. If she has to sit for any length of time, then that means Ice is our only big (technically, there is Amari too, but how realistic is it to expect her to hold her own out there?). I like seeing Ice's recent improvement, but she doesn't have Aaliyah's speed. Not having Aubrey and her quickness and aggressive defense is sure going to hurt. If Q develops an inside game to complement her outside shooting, that would be a great addition too.

 

[Bone Dog]

Just to be clear -- if I haven't been already -- I don't expect UConn will upset SC. I was merely mapping out one way it could go if it were to happen, and maybe showing that it isn't impossible. What I think is much more likely is that UConn loses by less than 10 points, maybe less than 5. I'd consider that a pretty good result.

 

[TN-Gamecock]

I will say this, UCONN is the only team that worries me at this point on our schedule. We do play at LSU which could be tricky but I'm by no means thinking playing UCONN at home will be easy. If y'all were in the SEC, you'd be right behind Carolina in the standings. That's how good I think UCONN is at the present. If I could take one person from UCONN's team and put it on Carolina's, it would be Aaliyah...she scares me more than Paige does.

 

[HuskyNan]

Look at who they played They played one team that Ive never heard of and that team scored 19 pts Please

Tony, South Carolina has played several teams that are currently ranked or were ranked. While the NCAA stats show SO Carolina with a less tough schedule, they use a pretty basic metric. Massey, which ranks their SOS at #3, uses opponents records and strength of schedule in a more complex analysis

 

[TN-Gamecock]

Thanks Husky Nan for that. You are correct. We played teams that are ranked or were ranked when we played them. Also keep in mind, Stanford backed out a home and home series. There are just some teams that won't play Carolina due to not wanting the loss. I commend UCONN, Maryland, Notre Dame and South Dakota State for playing. We could just load up on cupcakes like LSU does, but that would not keep the fans engaged. It also helps us when conference play begins and in March Madness.

 

[Bigboote]

Thanks Husky Nan for that. You are correct. We played teams that are ranked or were ranked when we played them. Also keep in mind, Stanford backed out a home and home series. There are just some teams that won't play Carolina due to not wanting the loss. I commend UCONN, Maryland, Notre Dame and South Dakota State for playing. We could just load up on cupcakes like LSU does, but that would not keep the fans engaged. It also helps us when conference play begins and in March Madness.

And I give credit to Dawn and the USC schedulers for always playing a couple of HBCUs. It’s probably not fun for the USC fans, but for the Morgan State or Mississippi Valley State teams and fans, it’s gotta feel great.

 

[Plebe]

Bottom line is SC will have to defend 5 on 5 and Im not so sure their D is as good as UConns D

Are we including defensive rebounding in the D comparison? It’s not a stop unless we can keep them off the boards.

 

[HuskyNan]

And I give credit to Dawn and the USC schedulers for always playing a couple of HBCUs. It’s probably not fun for the USC fans, but for the Morgan State or Mississippi Valley State teams and fans, it’s gotta feel great.

Dawn probably feels a responsibility to improve visibility to lesser-known programs, same as Geno and Pat Summitt. When you’re at the top of the sport, there’s a responsibility to help it grow

 

[CL82]

After yesterdays blow out it is becoming expected by some fans to blow out everybody, because UConn is playing at a different level. UConn is playing suffocating defense and enjoying it. UConn is playing with high energy, intensity and confidence and having fun doing it. Because theyre having fun they are relaxed confident and can operate and doing it. Alot of fans are saying the BE is weak. Well Creighton and Marquette are are ranked in the top 25 and we play them twice during the season, not once like some teams in other conferences. How many top conferences have teams at the bottom of their conference that are close in caliber to the bottom teams in the BE conference? Most do. I look at other conferences and see teams that arent very good just like the BE. I dont see the top teams in those conferences beating the bottom teams by 30+ let alone 40+ consistently. I look at UConn with 5 top players on the bench winning by 30+ pts against some pretty good teams and some not such pretty good teams and some of those teams are top teams in other conferences and UConn is doing this with 5 of their top players on the bench. Then I look at teams with one top player on the bench and they struggle and some have been loosing games to unranked teams.

UConn fans are excited about UConn again. We have a suffocating defense. We have alot of players who look to score and are not dependent on Paige and Aaliyah where most teams direct their attention. Have you noticed are balanced scoring in the past few games. Look at box scores of other teams. Look at UConns shooting percentages. Look at UConns starting 5-7 players and notice the decreased turnovers made and the increase in turnovers by opponents. We are reaching our stride.

We have games coming up that will be a real test. A much improved ND team that has gotten Westbeld and Citron back. ND too has suffered alot of injuries. How will they hold up against UConns defense. We have SC down the road. When we play these teams one thing will stand out. How well their ball handlers handle UConns defense. Alot of UConns success has been directly related to opponents not being able to handle UConns defense because they dont have the ball handlers and passing to release the pressure to operate their offense. I dont care how good a team is, trying to operate and run your offense under duress is very difficult and thats how UConn has been blowing teams out. Playing under duress affects the way you think and causes panic and panic causes you to speed up loosing your poise. Will opponenets down the road be able to make adjustments? We will see. ND now has some scorers and so does SC. These games will be a good test for UConn. Both teams have more height then UConn but the one thing imo they dont have is UConns defense

We are a very good team versus most of college basketball. What is unclear to me is how good we will be against the top four or five teams. The South Carolina game will tell us an awful lot.

 

[BBallF]

Opponents' scoring average (called "Scoring Defense") and opponents' field goal percentage (called "Field Goal Percentage Defense") are typically used by many (including writers and commentators) to assess whether a particular's team defense is "good" or "bad". But they are both simplistic and imperfect, to say the least. (btw, by these two criteria, SC ranks #10 and #1, and UConn #81 and #40) The problem is that they don't take into account at all the offensive capabilities of the actual opponents faced by each team.

There are other ranking systems that both (1) take into account the offensive and defensive strengths of the actual opponents (similar to ELO ratings in chess) and (2) create a weighted score of more than these two stats. The best publicly available system is Massey's ratings (Massey Ratings - College Basketball Women's : NCAA D1 Ratings), updated daily. There are other even more refined systems (but proprietary).

According to Massey's today (taking into account all games until yesterday):

• SC is #1 defense, #2 offense, #1 power, overall #1
• UConn is #6 defense, #3 Offense, #2 power, overall #5

And given todays results, I believe we may be up a notch tomorrow.

We have become really, really good

I assume Massey takes the whole season so far. We became a different team after Texas. I would guess that our numbers were much higher if we just took from that game forward.

 

[Bald Husky]

The ND game is our last chance before SC to show off our new line-up. If we can wipe them out, we will move up to the top 3, then take over #1 after beating SC. Read that Cardosa will not be there.

 

[WLT1717]

Thanks Husky Nan for that. You are correct. We played teams that are ranked or were ranked when we played them. Also keep in mind, Stanford backed out a home and home series. There are just some teams that won't play Carolina due to not wanting the loss. I commend UCONN, Maryland, Notre Dame and South Dakota State for playing. We could just load up on cupcakes like LSU does, but that would not keep the fans engaged. It also helps us when conference play begins and in March Madness.

It also bears noting that Coach Staley could strengthen her schedule but she really tries to support other programs in the state and some smaller schools that need the pub, $, or both. She doesn’t brag on this but it is legit, and reminds me of how UNC (men) have scheduled smaller in-state schools or programs headed by alums to try to help them.

 

[JellyBean]

How good is UConn? UConn is just as good, especially lately, as a lot of the top ten programs. Only South Carolina is really head and shoulders above the rest of the competition. However, with so many upsets and near upsets this season, anything can happen as Auburn showed Sunday against LSU. As an unranked Kansas State showed early in the season against highly rated Iowa, when they beat Iowa. Princeton gave UCLA a good run. Same with Gonzaga when they beat Stanford. Anything can happen. Players and coaches have to be on their A game.

 

[hoophuskee]

What does UCONN need to do vs the top tier teams? Hit shots. I can't predict they will. I can't predict they won't. As Cuango says I belleve a key game is ND. Also, if they can continue to not be pushed too hard in the Big East while blowing nearly every team out so the team doesn't t wear down while having the core players play quite a bit so as a group they can continue to improve- that would be geat.

 

[Dognusty]

Bottom line is SC will have to defend 5 on 5 and Im not so sure their D is as good as UConns D

It's better