Could it still be Missouri, after all?

[Seaa Blue]

These are great facts about Missouri. And its two largest cities are on the state borders, so half of their suburban populations probably live outside of Missouri.

East St. Louis, IL, and Kansas City, KS are not all that attractive and both have bridges to cross.

 

[RegisteredUconn]

Sorry obviously I meant the southern border with Arkansas. Since one is generally midwest and the other southeast, that they share an entire border is one that I bet most people dont realize.

I knew you meant Ark. but was eager to display my extensive store of utterly useless facts. Of course I screwed it up so now I've got to go back and reexamine my entire life's plan. Any suggestions?

 

[UConnDan97]

I don't hit my crackpipe. Too precious, it might break.

It's improbable that Missouri would leave the SEC, but it's even more improbable that the B1G would ask them, since they passed on Missouri already - must not fit be a compelling case. And I can see that, if they think they have St Louis already for the BTN, Kansas might add more value than Missouri since it would bring a new state and the other major city in Missouri, Kansas City, and also the Univ of Missouri may not show up well on metrics of in-state fan interest due to pro sports competition and the remoteness of Columbia. It's also not a bridge to a higher-value target the way Kansas might bring Oklahoma and Texas or Virginia might bring UNC. Arguably, if you were to raid the SEC, Kentucky would bring more value than Missouri.

But, what do we have to hope for in the near term, but the improbable? It's even more improbable that the B12 or ACC GoRs will be tested so far from their expiration. It's improbable any non-P5 schools other than UConn would be attractive to the B1G (Buffalo???). In B1G expansion terms, it's probably UConn + an SEC team, UConn as #15 without a partner, or nothing.

UConn brings more value to the B1G than anyone else, so I think that's the logical endpoint. But they are an exclusive club and can be patient.

What we have to hope for are the same things that we've had to hope for during the past 2 years. The idea that either the ACC, B1G, or in an extremely rare case, the Big12 would add us to their conference. But we don't have to compound the improbable hope by pinning it against a team that has no logical reason to leave their current conference like Mizzou.

If we want to fantasize about going to the B1G, there's no problem invoking many of the other schools that would have a better chance of going (a.k.a., Kansas, UVA). But let's not multiply crazy x crazy in order to end up with crazy squared...

 

[Plains&Lakes]

What we have to hope for are the same things that we've had to hope for during the past 2 years. The idea that either the ACC, B1G, or in an extremely rare case, the Big12 would add us to their conference. But we don't have to compound the improbable hope by pinning it against a team that has no logical reason to leave their current conference like Mizzou.

If we want to fantasize about going to the B1G, there's no problem invoking many of the other schools that would have a better chance of going (a.k.a., Kansas, UVA). But let's not multiply crazy x crazy in order to end up with crazy squared...

The odds are against any single school going into the Big Ten, but there is a chance (with different odds for each school) for every school. Now with Hawaii, the odds might be 500,000 to one (you pick the odds), but it seems to me that UConn and one other team from the entire field it likely inevitable in the long run.

 

[NickyNewark]

The B1G model is tantamount to gerrymandering, and it could be suspect. That's what Rutgers is estimated to be worth. We'll see how that holds up.

In any model Oregon is worth more. They are a national brand, they boost your contract up by god knows how much.

National? You must have been born since "75"...I was born in "51" and Oregon wasnt even regional until this century....I can't believe some peoples perception change so fast?? Before Brian Kelly NH's highflying offensive HC was hired NO ONE cared or knew(esp here in the NE) about them(and I lived in LA) and I lived on the west coast in the 70s in fact Im not sure but think they were as low as anyone can get in the P10(until recently)..money can buy a lot but not blueblood.... Heck Wisky is barely national and Barry Alvarez gave them national attention fairly recently to anyone over 45!! The Washington Huskies were way more national than woebegone!! A little flash on offense and uni's and a fad is born but certainly NOT a national brand like the Nike sponsor's!! Maybe 20 yrs from now if they can keep it going IMO. USC,UCLA maybe Stanford but not Oregon yet.

 

[UConnDan97]

The odds are against any single school going into the Big Ten, but there is a chance (with different odds for each school) for every school. Now with Hawaii, the odds might be 500,000 to one (you pick the odds), but it seems to me that UConn and one other team from the entire field it likely inevitable in the long run.

So....what are you getting at?

My argument is against the idea that Missouri would leave the SEC. That doesn't mean that the B1G won't expand. That doesn't mean that UConn won't end up in the B1G. It just means that it's ridiculously unlikely that it would be with Missouri as a partner...

 

[geordi]

I may have asked you before about you ? Is that pub in your avatar in Portmagee over the bridge from Valentia Island in County Kerry, Ireland?

If so, I have stopped for pints there a couple of times. A nice pub.

Aye, lad, it is. Very observant of ye! 'Tis a wonderful thing to have a few pints of Guinness (Black Valium) in such a beautiful place. Portmagee also has a very, very cool new year's celebration. It's worth the trip.

 

[Plains&Lakes]

So....what are you getting at?

My argument is against the idea that Missouri would leave the SEC. That doesn't mean that the B1G won't expand. That doesn't mean that UConn won't end up in the B1G. It just means that it's ridiculously unlikely that it would be with Missouri as a partner...

Since Missouri is not in a GOR, I think that the odds of Missouri coming into the Big Ten are at least measurable. While I do not want to get into any argument about odds, I might set the odds of Missouri coming to the Big Ten at 20 to 1 against. It's still 5%. It is hard to believe that UVA, with the GOR, are better than 5%, and maybe less. Now UNC is further away and likes to be the kingpin and their is an anti-Northern viewpoint that we have to expect, so lets say 3%. Likewise for GT, which is far away, but has a very compatible engineering schools and a great many out-of-state alumni and students. FSU? -Far away, but maybe 4%.
Vanderbilt?-It would like the academics of the Big Ten, but it has been the SEC for a long time. Maybe 2%. UConn, just purely for the sake of speculation, might be 60%. I would greatly welcome, other than UConn, schools that you think are more likely to come to the Big Ten and the reasons why. I might, with non-serious conviction, place Oklahoma and Kansas at 3-4%. A sleeper, in my humble, speculative opinion, might be VT, which brings relative proximity. a pretty good football program, a compatible-to-Big Ten Engineering school, a not too long tenure in the ACC, and not such a large endowment to almost ignore money like UVA. For the sake of speculation of fun, let's say 6%.

So maybe there is, exempting a dynamic transformation of the Power 5 structure, a 20 to 25 % chance of at least one ACC team leaving, with uncertainties in the potential synergies of taking 2. And maybe 10% from the Big 12 as a whole. 5% from Missouri, and 2% from Vanderbilt. Let's 7% from a team in New York and/or New England other than UConn. And from my fellow alumnus, B1GOSU, let's say 1% for his staggeringly brilliant idea of taking 4 Internationally-acclaimed California schools into the Big Ten. He thinks big and bold, but I do not think that the distance and the weight of the mass of moving those four can be overcome. This is the sort of idea that an inventor or visionary thinks of, and only 200 years later is finally applied.

Well, I was not really trying to set odds, but rather to encourage the continuing flow of everyone's current good ideas.

 

[noeynox]

National? You must have been born since "75"...I was born in "51" and Oregon wasnt even regional until this century....I can't believe some peoples perception change so fast?? Before Brian Kelly NH's highflying offensive HC was hired NO ONE cared or knew(esp here in the NE) about them(and I lived in LA) and I lived on the west coast in the 70s in fact Im not sure but think they were as low as anyone can get in the P10(until recently)..money can buy a lot but not blueblood.... Heck Wisky is barely national and Barry Alvarez gave them national attention fairly recently to anyone over 45!! The Washington Huskies were way more national than woebegone!! A little flash on offense and uni's and a fad is born but certainly NOT a national brand like the Nike sponsor's!! Maybe 20 yrs from now if they can keep it going IMO. USC,UCLA maybe Stanford but not Oregon yet.

Does the name Mike Belloti ring a bell? You're underestimating how long Oregon has been good for. Even Rich Brooks before Belloti had a good run.

 

[ZooCougar]

National? You must have been born since "75"...I was born in "51" and Oregon wasnt even regional until this century....I can't believe some peoples perception change so fast?? Before Brian Kelly NH's highflying offensive HC was hired NO ONE cared or knew(esp here in the NE) about them(and I lived in LA) and I lived on the west coast in the 70s in fact Im not sure but think they were as low as anyone can get in the P10(until recently)..money can buy a lot but not blueblood.... Heck Wisky is barely national and Barry Alvarez gave them national attention fairly recently to anyone over 45!! The Washington Huskies were way more national than woebegone!! A little flash on offense and uni's and a fad is born but certainly NOT a national brand like the Nike sponsor's!! Maybe 20 yrs from now if they can keep it going IMO. USC,UCLA maybe Stanford but not Oregon yet.

I think you're a step behind unfortunately.

Oregon already had that offense before even Brian Kelly. Remember Akili Smith? Their previous coach had been growing that system for quite some time.

And yes it doesn't take long to get to national prominence when you win a lot and score at will. They are an exciting team to watch.

 

[noeynox]

I think Oregon finished a season ranked 2nd in the country under Belloti as well. Akili Smith, Joey Harrington. Those were top NFL picks at the QB position. They also played for a national title against Cam Newton and Auburn. Oregon football is legit, I don't get why anyone would waste bandwith trying to say otherwise.

 

[NickyNewark]

Does the name Mike Belloti ring a bell? You're underestimating how long Oregon has been good for. Even Rich Brooks before Belloti had a good run.

Yeah now that you bring him up I do and Akili Smith too but maybe due to the fact everyone I associate and watch sports with...aahh lets face it here in the NE..with all our options nowadays and the fact their on so late were either celebrating our own schools victory or too depressed at that hr to care!?! But like I said I know they've had a nice run but Oregon? Who cares?? Even in Cali!! They have captured the ESPiN talking heads fancy but talk Oregon I dont even think FB but beauty,islands,tree's and mountains... I guess I can understand the younger guys enjoying high flying O but Im a D kinda guy..these dang rule changes are designed to turn FB into BB on grass!?! Too each his own..

 

[whaler11]

Nicky Nike didnt exist in 51. Are you familiar with them?

Jesus you like Rutgers.

 

[Marty Jackson]

I recently found myself in Missouri.

I think if you asked 1,000 Americans what state borders Missouri to the south - on average 15 could answer.

Missouri? who cares...
but for sake of proving your point, is it Oregon?

 

[ZooCougar]

Missouri? who cares...
but for sake of proving your point, is it Oregon?

Nope, Floriduh.

 

[pj]

What we have to hope for are the same things that we've had to hope for during the past 2 years. The idea that either the ACC, B1G, or in an extremely rare case, the Big12 would add us to their conference. But we don't have to compound the improbable hope by pinning it against a team that has no logical reason to leave their current conference like Mizzou.

If we want to fantasize about going to the B1G, there's no problem invoking many of the other schools that would have a better chance of going (a.k.a., Kansas, UVA). But let's not multiply crazy x crazy in order to end up with crazy squared...

I disagree that Missouri is a longer shot than Kansas or Virginia. Those two schools signed GoRs recently, indicating a desire to stick with their current conferences, Missouri has not. Missouri expressed a desire to be in the B1G recently, that's more than Kansas or Virginia have done.

Any sour grapes Missouri feels can be overcome with some courting. And academics will be making the decision, not athletic directors or football fans, and that gives the B1G and their CIC a huge advantage. Moreover, Missouri is going to feel culturally far more at home with Nebraska, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Indiana than with Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana.

The odds are against any single school going into the Big Ten, but there is a chance (with different odds for each school) for every school. Now with Hawaii, the odds might be 500,000 to one (you pick the odds), but it seems to me that UConn and one other team from the entire field it likely inevitable in the long run.

This is my view also. Missouri might be improbable, but so is every other potential partner for UConn. Yet, I think the B1G needs and wants UConn to fill out its northeastern flank. As I've said before, the 7-state New England - New York region has 35 million people and currently no major conference teams except BC and Syracuse who are only minor draws - both are private schools, BC is small and Syracuse is remote from population centers. The region is ripe for the taking by whatever enterpreneurial conference wants to get into it, and UConn is the big prize, centrally located in the population centers and media markets, a public school with strong loyalties throughout its state, a national brand in basketball and a top performer in many sports with a rising football program. For the B1G, UConn would be a major prize and would give them a stranglehold on the northeast.

But, there is no partner currently, and AAU status is a problem.

I actually think the smart move for the B1G is to take UConn and play football with 15 members for ten years until the ACC and B12 media contracts expire. The extra penetration and unassailable position in the northeast would make them a compelling proposition for ACC and B12 teams -- the revenue would be far ahead of other conferences. I don't think they'd have a problem going to 16, 18 or 20 with an elite group of schools in the next realignment round.

But, if they have to have 16 and it has to be AAU, and the GoRs are solid, who can it be but Missouri?

 

[UConnDan97]

I disagree that Missouri is a longer shot than Kansas or Virginia. Those two schools signed GoRs recently, indicating a desire to stick with their current conferences, Missouri has not. Missouri expressed a desire to be in the B1G recently, that's more than Kansas or Virginia have done.

Any sour grapes Missouri feels can be overcome with some courting. And academics will be making the decision, not athletic directors or football fans, and that gives the B1G and their CIC a huge advantage. Moreover, Missouri is going to feel culturally far more at home with Nebraska, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Indiana than with Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana.

I'm not going to continue to get into this any further, but I highlighted some words that you used. Things like "culture", "academics", and "desire". Those are all nice buzz words. But I don't see where you talked about the "money". Because let's all please be very plain about these decisions; they are made on the weight of the "money". Get back to me when you've considered the money and have come up with the argument why it makes financial sense for them to leave the SEC. Then, I'll finally believe you...

 

[pj]

I'm not going to continue to get into this any further, but I highlighted some words that you used. Things like "culture", "academics", and "desire". Those are all nice buzz words. But I don't see where you talked about the "money". Because let's all please be very plain about these decisions; they are made on the weight of the "money". Get back to me when you've considered the money and have come up with the argument why it makes financial sense for them to leave the SEC. Then, I'll finally believe you...

The numbers reportedly projected for the B1G are $35-$45 mn per year. That's more than the SEC is expected to get. It's at worst a wash for Missouri to leave for the B1G. Those are likely to be the two top money-grossing conferences going forward. The SEC has better football, but the B1G has bigger markets. They'll make more money as long as they are competitive athletically.

Money matters more from the B1G's perspective. Missouri might not bring enough revenue to avoid dilution of payouts. If so, that's a problem. I doubt Missouri's decision will be affected by money, however.

 

[Plains&Lakes]

I disagree that Missouri is a longer shot than Kansas or Virginia. Those two schools signed GoRs recently, indicating a desire to stick with their current conferences, Missouri has not. Missouri expressed a desire to be in the B1G recently, that's more than Kansas or Virginia have done.

Any sour grapes Missouri feels can be overcome with some courting. And academics will be making the decision, not athletic directors or football fans, and that gives the B1G and their CIC a huge advantage. Moreover, Missouri is going to feel culturally far more at home with Nebraska, Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Indiana than with Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana.



This is my view also. Missouri might be improbable, but so is every other potential partner for UConn. Yet, I think the B1G needs and wants UConn to fill out its northeastern flank. As I've said before, the 7-state New England - New York region has 35 million people and currently no major conference teams except BC and Syracuse who are only minor draws - both are private schools, BC is small and Syracuse is remote from population centers. The region is ripe for the taking by whatever enterpreneurial conference wants to get into it, and UConn is the big prize, centrally located in the population centers and media markets, a public school with strong loyalties throughout its state, a national brand in basketball and a top performer in many sports with a rising football program. For the B1G, UConn would be a major prize and would give them a stranglehold on the northeast.

But, there is no partner currently, and AAU status is a problem.

I actually think the smart move for the B1G is to take UConn and play football with 15 members for ten years until the ACC and B12 media contracts expire. The extra penetration and unassailable position in the northeast would make them a compelling proposition for ACC and B12 teams -- the revenue would be far ahead of other conferences. I don't think they'd have a problem going to 16, 18 or 20 with an elite group of schools in the next realignment round.

But, if they have to have 16 and it has to be AAU, and the GoRs are solid, who can it be but Missouri?

You make some good points. The ACC if nothing has been entrepreneurial-and by entrepreneurial (because this can have many different meanings to many different people) I am think of leveraging opportunity and willing to take risk. The ACC has certainly done that when you consider how big they were and how big they are now.

As a long-term Big Ten alumnus, I think that the AAU is neat. Neat. But no more. I look at the overall academics of UCONN, which are clearly better than Nebraska's (who had to exit from the AAU) or Buffalo (who is in the AAU) and many that are in the AAU. I am not sure about reaching and waiting at 15, but there may be too much upside with UConn to wait for UConn's possible entry in the AAU.

 

[NickyNewark]

You make some good points. The ACC if nothing has been entrepreneurial-and by entrepreneurial (because this can have many different meanings to many different people) I am think of leveraging opportunity and willing to take risk. The ACC has certainly done that when you consider how big they were and how big they are now.

As a long-term Big Ten alumnus, I think that the AAU is neat. Neat. But no more. I look at the overall academics of UCONN, which are clearly better than Nebraska's (who had to exit from the AAU) or Buffalo (who is in the AAU) and many that are in the AAU. I am not sure about reaching and waiting at 15, but there may be too much upside with UConn to wait for UConn's possible entry in the AAU.

I agree I don't like the idea of waiting and assuming for an obviously valuable eastern add esp if Swoffy eventually wakes up and beats us to the last eastcoast lockdown move!! Delany's rep would certainly be enhanced once again by showing his vision and embarrassing the visionless.

 

[ZooCougar]

Mizzou is not leaving the SEC.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

I have said it before. In an ideal world, which means it will not happen, the XII releases West Virginia who jumps to their natural home in the ACC replacing Louisville who gets lured away by the SEC to replace Missouri who moves from the SEC to the B1G as a partner for UConn. The XII then backfills with BYU, S Florida, and C Florida. Just about everyone is happy except for Cincinnati.

 

[Plains&Lakes]

I agree I don't like the idea of waiting and assuming for an obviously valuable eastern add esp if Swoffy eventually wakes up and beats us to the last eastcoast lockdown move!! Delany's rep would certainly be enhanced once again by showing his vision and embarrassing the visionless.

It is possible that both the ACC and Big Ten are comfortable with the status quo of neither taking UConn, with the ACC thinking that it is big and diverse enough and the Big Ten just does not see a profitable partner to go with UConn.

What I find fascinating is how well so many public officials (Presidents, ADs, coaches, assistants, educator and other administrative official) manage to not express publicly there opinions on the desirability or non-desirability of a given school to a conference. Gordon Gee would be an exception with his comments about Louisville, Texas, TT, Missouri, Kansas and his comments in general about desirable SE ACC schools. Of course, despite his many accomplishments, he is no longer at Ohio State.

If Rutgers, with their market, academics and AAU designation had to wait, this suggests that UConn needs a partner. If the Big Ten does not do anything before the contract, we all could be in for a long wait. But the contract could have revenue enhancements built into it for certain schools.

 

[NickyNewark]

It is possible that both the ACC and Big Ten are comfortable with the status quo of neither taking UConn, with the ACC thinking that it is big and diverse enough and the Big Ten just does not see a profitable partner to go with UConn.

What I find fascinating is how well so many public officials (Presidents, ADs, coaches, assistants, educator and other administrative official) manage to not express publicly there opinions on the desirability or non-desirability of a given school to a conference. Gordon Gee would be an exception with his comments about Louisville, Texas, TT, Missouri, Kansas and his comments in general about desirable SE ACC schools. Of course, despite his many accomplishments, he is no longer at Ohio State.

If Rutgers, with their market, academics and AAU designation had to wait, this suggests that UConn needs a partner. If the Big Ten does not do anything before the contract, we all could be in for a long wait. But the contract could have revenue enhancements built into it for certain schools.

I agree with almost everything you say and I'm concerned about the thought of the "long wait" if it doesnt happen by "16" too!! Its the kind of thing that could be a program killer for a school so obviously worthy!! As for the ACC with the 2 local privates with the perception we don't care about CFB so much here in the NE and already having SU/BC in the region they probably are thinking overkill/saturation point. While UConn is IMO more valuable than both put together and represents a whole state with regional strength/reach though maybe not national yet in FB certainly has unlimited FB potential. Lets hope the B1G realizes the lockdown of the northern side of NYC metro up into Maine for the TV contact and the next 50 years is too important to put on the backburner and take the pressure off of us and everyone else involved....lets make a wise decision and get on with it.

 

[pj]

If the Big Ten does not do anything before the contract, we all could be in for a long wait. But the contract could have revenue enhancements built into it for certain schools.

This is really key for UConn. The B12 and ACC basically can't expand right now because their TV contracts won't give them more money for the additions, so on a per-school basis they lose money by growing. If the B1G negotiates automatic payment increases if it grows the conference, with amounts specified for each school, then they can grow from that menu without necessarily losing any income. That gives UConn a long window in which it can make its case.