Bubble teams

[storrsroars]

Back to BYU. They have a 31 RPI, 22-11 record, 24 SOS, wins over Stanford, Texas and and Gonzaga, 8-7 vs. Top 100, yet Lunardi has them as one of the last teams in. I assume this is to drive page views of nervous BYU fans, because otherwise, I don't see his logic.

For every good win they have an even worse loss. They should be right on the cut line.

Meantime, I've just having a difficult time thinking CUSA is just a one-bid conference. I think So. Miss gets in even if LaTech wins the conference tourney. Not so sure if LaTech gets in if So Miss wins though.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

For every good win they have an even worse loss. They should be right on the cut line.

Meantime, I've just having a difficult time thinking CUSA is just a one-bid conference. I think So. Miss gets in even if LaTech wins the conference tourney. Not so sure if LaTech gets in if So Miss wins though.

For all Lunardi's posturing that he knows the secret sauce of the selection committee, he basically went straight RPI, because he knows that is what the Committee does. BYU has a 31 RPI and 6 Top 100 wins. The only thing putting them near the cut line is Collinsworth's injury, and that factor is hard to handicap.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

You are wrong, but you keeping trying to convince yourself if you want.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

8 seed right now, 2 games to play, lock. Palm also has them as a 9.

Every "expert" and bracket site has them as a lock. I do not think they are all wrong.

I guess we will find out.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

For every good win they have an even worse loss. They should be right on the cut line.

Meantime, I've just having a difficult time thinking CUSA is just a one-bid conference. I think So. Miss gets in even if LaTech wins the conference tourney. Not so sure if LaTech gets in if So Miss wins though.

CUSA is a one bid conference. Southern Miss may get another look if they lose in the conference finals, but at this point, there are too many bubble teams picking up wins for Southern Miss to survive without an automatic bid.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It is not looking good for SMU. Providence, Pitt and Dayton are going to win. KState lost, but they are probably still in front of SMU. Missouri is probably about even with SMU, but Missouri still has a chance to win more games. SMU basically needs every game the rest of the day to break in their direction, or they are out of the tournament in my opinion.

 

[pepband99]

ESPN has started waffling too:

We've had SMU locked up since its March 1 win over UCF -- its remaining conference schedule (Louisville and Memphis) wasn't a threat to its at-large status. The Mustangs went on to lose both of those games, but, hey, no big deal. Now? After Thursday's loss to RPI No. 157 Houston? The Mustangs are thoroughly shaking our confidence. SMU's resume now has three sub-150 RPI wins; just four top-50 victories; a 4-6 mark against the top 100; 19 of its 31 games against teams ranked outside the top 150; and a truly disconcerting nonconference schedule ranking (305 as of Thursday afternoon). We still think the Mustangs will get in, relative to most of the bubble, and we're loath to override a lock. But if the rest of the bubble makes a collective upward shift in the next two days, we may be forced to reconsider.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Looks like someone at ESPN is reading the Boneyard.

SMU needs one of those bloodbath bubble Thursdays that seem to happen every 2 or 3 years, where most of the bubble blows itself up in the first round of their conference tournaments. So far, it isn't looking good for the Mustangs, but hope is not lost. Marquette over Xavier, South Carolina over Arkansas, Colorado over Cal and Northwestern over Iowa, together with a St. Joe's loss tomorrow, and SMU is back in good shape. If SMU gets 3 of those games to go their way, I give SMU a little less than a 50/50 chance. 2 or less, NIT.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Arkansas is finished. Colorado is hanging by a thread over cal, and Colorado looks gassed.

 

[uconnbill]

Still think SMU makes it, if only because of the reputation and four wins over top 25 teams. Yes their strength of schedule will hurt them but I see them as a 10 seed as worse.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

SMU ended their game needing the equivalent of drawing 3 cards towards an inside straight. I would say they have drawn 2 so far with Cal and Arkansas losing. Marquette over Xavier could put SMU back in good shape. I have only watched pieces of Iowa/Northwestern, and Northwestern looks a little outmatched, so I don't think SMU will get any help there..

 

[whaler11]

SMU has the advantage of Brown being an interesting story.

No one will ever make me understand why injuries impact seeding. The seeding should be on what you did - not on what you are projected to do.

 

[progrocks]

Nelson is the most interesting poster here. Some time I read him and I am like, "man, he nailed that point better than anyone else here by far."

Other times I am like, "man, meth ruins lives."

Keeps it interesting......

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Iowa goes down to a painfully unathletic Northwestern team. If Iowa was a higher profile program, McCaffrey would be in trouble, but no one outside of flyover country is paying attention. His blow up, suspension, and subsequent nosedive is one of the worst coaching performances I can recall in recent years. A team with Roy Marble and a very good supporting cast is in real danger of missing the Dance.

SMU is in a lot better shape at 11:15 than they were at 2:15 today. Marquette could put them over the top.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Here is how I see it:

SMU is one of the last teams in the dance, and is almost definitely playing in Dayton. I have SMU ahead of Iowa at the very bottom of the bubble, with both squeaking in. I have an empty slot for my last team for right now (more on that later).

5 bubble teams are still playing and need to win to go to the dance:

Tennessee over South Carolina
Providence over Seton Hall
Florida State over Virginia
Minnesota over Wisconsin
Missouri over Florida

I put them in order of likeliness of a win. Tennessee and Providence just need to avoid bad losses, and Tennessee may even be able to survive a bad loss. The other 3 teams' resumes are not as strong as SMU's right now, and a "good" loss isn't going to help them. If any of FSU, Minnesota or Missouri win, SMU moves down a slot, and may drop out altogether. I don't think any of those schools are going to win, but SMU will be sweating it out today.

St. Joe's is near the cusp, but I don't think a loss to Dayton hurts them enough to drop them out. Dayton is safely in the tournament.

Iowa - Bubble Watch and Lunardi still have them safely in the dance, I think they are the second to last team in right now.

Lunardi annoys me because he has so many mistakes. For example, his bids by conference for the Big East and Pac 12 do not tie out to his bracket. He lists Arkansas in his "Next Four Out" but then has them in his bracket. It is very sloppy for a journalist to be making those mistakes.

Since Lunardi doesn't have a last team in the dance, neither do I. I suspect one of the FSU, Minn, Mizzou teams will pull the upset and take a bid. If they all lose, maybe there is a spot for Southern Miss or Toledo.

 

[babysheep]

aaaaand St. Louis loses to St. Bonaventure, who finished with a stellar 6-10 in the A 10.

SLU will be limping in to the tournament finishing 1-4 by squeaking by UMass. Their best win is VCU at home i.e. they have not beat a single P5 team.

I believe they were projected to be a 6 seed this morning before. How far do they fall now? Do they deserve the bubble?

 

[HomeKing93]

I'm sure SMU & Iowa are happy that Missouri and FSU lost today. As SMU & Iowa both have RPIs in the 50s, the sweating should continue.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

St. Joe's won, Missouri and FSU lost. The field is just about set if Providence beats Seton Hall tonight. I don't know who the last at large is if Minnesota loses.

 

[tykurez]

aaaaand St. Louis loses to St. Bonaventure, who finished with a stellar 6-10 in the A 10.

SLU will be limping in to the tournament finishing 1-4 by squeaking by UMass. Their best win is VCU at home i.e. they have not beat a single P5 team.

I believe they were projected to be a 6 seed this morning before. How far do they fall now? Do they deserve the bubble?

I've been saying since their loss to Duquesne that they should be worried - but others are right, they're a lock.

A bad lock at that though ... and the state of college basketball at the moment. They have an incredibly unimpressive resume.

 

[TRest]

I've been saying since their loss to Duquesne that they should be worried - but others are right, they're a lock.

A bad lock at that though ... and the state of college basketball at the moment. They have an incredibly unimpressive resume.

Name one A10 team you would worry about playing in the dance? Hard to believe 5-6 incredibly average teams are all a lock, it's a weird year.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Vcu, umass and Dayton are all tough. GW could pick off a team having an off night. St. Joes is just a well coached, under talented team that will be outmatched next weekend. I don't like Jim Crews.

 

[champs99and04]

VCU and Virginia have virtually identical resumes.

 

[seanmc94]

UMass is overrated

 

[BUHusky]

It's amazing to hear the talking heads in the media all of a sudden put NC St. in the bubble conversation after their win today. Their best wins are a struggling late season Cuse and two very borderline NCAA teams in Pitt and Tennessee. After that it's wins over FSU, Maryland, and Eastern Kentucky (?). If they beat Duke tomorrow then maybe they can be put in the bubble conversation, but even then they are still out. Overrating of the ACC by the media knows no bounds.

 

[aceboon]

Jerry Palm now has SMU in his last 4 in

 

[nelsonmuntz]

A few thoughts:

Southern Miss is not going to the dance in my opinion. They have a tremendous RPI which they achieved without playing anyone. About half the RPI is strictly W/L record, so if you play a bunch of turnips, you will have a good RPI. The other thing Southern Miss did was play a ton of road games. Almost half their games are road games, and the RPI rewards teams that play road games, even if they are against bad teams. Their only Top 50 win is over North Dakota State, and the only other top 100 wins are Georgia State and La Tech. URI is their only win over a team from a Top 10 conference. There are too many 20 win teams from major and near major leagues to send a low major champ like USM.

I think SMU and Iowa are in the dance, but they are going to be sweating. As of right now their are 3 teams above them in the RPI rankings that I have as "out": Minnesota, Missouri and NC State. FSU is only .0002 behind Iowa, so that could move in the next day or two. Actually, 1 of those teams will probably go to the tournament.

All 6 of those schools have similar records, similar number of quality wins, and very similar RPI's. SMU has the fewest Top 100 wins, and Iowa has one of the worst records among that group. These schools are close enough, that a situation like UConn winning the AAC could swing the balance for SMU because they beat UConn twice. If you listen to the Selection Committee interviews over the years, when it gets real close, they go with the teams that have the best wins because they want teams that can win at the Dance.