Bracketology (merged threads)

[Wbbfan1]

http://espn.go.com/womens-college-basketball/bracketology

Notre Dame has the easiest bracket. Wouldn't surprise me to see Depaul make the Regional. However don't think any team in bracket has a shot of beating ND.

UConn's Backet. Maryland vs UCLA could be an interesting game. If Syracuse makes it to the regional, it won't be a pretty game against UConn .

 

[toadfoot]

Maryland is by far the most dangerous #2 seed. I'm not sold at all on the Pac-12 teams. I think there's a fair chance that Maryland wins their conference tournament and either Oregon St. or Arizona St. (or both) fail to win the Pac-12 tourney, which should juggle the brackets.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Charlie is nuts. Maryland is the weakest 2 seed in basketball? No way. Connecticut should be playing Oregon State. Maryland should be assigned to Baylor, the 4th 1 seed.

And 4 seed? Syracuse? In my mind the weakest 4 seed should be Mississippi State. Not Syracuse. Syracuse is tougher.

Let's see how his bracketology compares with the real thing.

 

[Zorro]

Tennessee should be in Bridgeport.

 

[magic]

Same old NCAA, end of regular season political crap. My eye test tells me Louisville is better than all of the Pac - 12 teams.

 

[JoePgh]

Charlie is nuts. Maryland is the weakest 2 seed in basketball? No way. Connecticut should be playing Oregon State. Maryland should be assigned to Baylor, the 4th 1 seed.

And 4 seed? Syracuse? In my mind the weakest 4 seed should be Mississippi State. Not Syracuse. Syracuse is tougher.

Let's see how his bracketology compares with the real thing.

While I agree with you, I think the Crème bracketology is based on the NCAA committee's last "reveal", which in fact had Maryland as the #8 seed. It seems that the other 2nd-seeded teams played a tougher schedule and had more Top-50 wins.

If that is really the way the committee looks at it, UConn could be facing a difficult regional in Bridgeport, with both Syracuse and Maryland as possible opponents.

 

[Frodo]

Charlie is nuts. Maryland is the weakest 2 seed in basketball? No way. Connecticut should be playing Oregon State. Maryland should be assigned to Baylor, the 4th 1 seed.

And 4 seed? Syracuse? In my mind the weakest 4 seed should be Mississippi State. Not Syracuse. Syracuse is tougher.

Let's see how his bracketology compares with the real thing.

It's not Charlie that's nuts, it's the NCAA. Remember that he's only projecting what he thinks the committee will do and not necessarily what he thinks is th right thing to do. Having said that, I agree that right now Maryland looks like the strongest #2 seed and should be in Baylor's region. I've seen quite a few PAC 12 games this year and agree with magic that Louisville is better than any of them and should probably be a #2 seed over ASU or OSU.

 

[UcMiami]

No need to get too excited yet - lots of conference tournament play before the NCAA starts getting down to work.
Maryland is getting slammed for their OOC which they should be, but after i reviewed the Pac12, their OOC isn't exactly stunning - what helps them is RPI because their really bad teams played really terrible teams OOC and came into conference with gaudy W/L numbers.
As for 4 seeds - Syracuse is not a good team and is borderline at best as a 4 seed, so yeah they are likely the worst of the 16 top seeds.
And i agree that Louisville looks dangerous and much better than their record, but they started the year terribly losing 5 of 8 and that is hard to disguise and with a down year for the ACC they don't have any signature wins against teams in the top 16.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Thank you for the clarification: it's not Charlie Creme who's nuts, it's the NCAA. Louisville should be a strong 2 seed. Whatever hiccups they had to begin the season, they're one of the strongest teams in the nation right now.

 

[ChicagoGG]

USF a 9 seed? That's whack. They are ranked 20 in the polls. Shouldn't that make them a 5 or 6?

 

[Hoopz]

Thank you for the clarification: it's not Charlie Creme who's nuts, it's the NCAA. Louisville should be a strong 2 seed. Whatever hiccups they had to begin the season, they're one of the strongest teams in the nation right now.

3 of the last 6 teams Louisville beat have losing records. RPI of 14 & SOS of 28. Not sure how they could be a 2 seed.

 

[southie]

I feel as if there may be some obvious (known) seeding rules that I'm not aware of; or, perhaps they have changed since last year. Why can't UK be placed in the Lexington, KY regional? I thought the host school automatically was placed in its own Regional. But, Crème makes it sound like South Carolina being placed there as the #1 seed takes precedence, and since both are in the SEC, they can't both be in the Regional as Top 4 seeds. Anyone know the rules?

I thought the #2 seeds were placed in the region based on closest proximity to their campus. So, Texas is currently the top #2 seed according to Crème; but, I'm guessing the committee won't place them in Dallas due to conference foe Baylor being the #1 seed in Dallas? So, Crème sends Texas to Sioux Falls, SD because it is 920 miles from Austin TX, while Lexington, KY is 927 miles from Austin, TX.

If Maryland was considered as the highest rated #2 seed by the committee, wouldn't they still be placed in the Bridgeport Regional due to proximity over Lexington, KY?

Any clarity would be appreciated.

 

[UcMiami]

USF a 9 seed? That's whack. They are ranked 20 in the polls. Shouldn't that make them a 5 or 6?

Unfortunately they have not beaten a single high quality team, though they have played them tough. They have a good RPI (25) but no 'signature' wins. I hope they get a better seeding, but ... with likely 9 losses they aren't likely to move to as far as a 7.

 

[Adesmar123]

Tennessee should be in Bridgeport.

I was hoping we could have Orlando be in CT.

 

[OldAlum]

I seem to recall that Crème was not all that accurate in his predictions of who goes where last year.

 

[UcMiami]

I feel as if there may be some obvious (known) seeding rules that I'm not aware of; or, perhaps they have changed since last year. Why can't UK be placed in the Lexington, KY regional? I thought the host school automatically was placed in its own Regional. But, Crème makes it sound like South Carolina being placed there as the #1 seed takes precedence, and since both are in the SEC, they can't both be in the Regional as Top 4 seeds. Anyone know the rules?

I thought the #2 seeds were placed in the region based on closest proximity to their campus. So, Texas is currently the top #2 seed according to Crème; but, I'm guessing the committee won't place them in Dallas due to conference foe Baylor being the #1 seed in Dallas? So, Crème sends Texas to Sioux Falls, SD because it is 920 miles from Austin TX, while Lexington, KY is 927 miles from Austin, TX.

If Maryland was considered as the highest rated #2 seed by the committee, wouldn't they still be placed in the Bridgeport Regional due to proximity over Lexington, KY?

Any clarity would be appreciated.

The 1 seeds get precedence on location based on their order and geography - if SC maintains the second position of #1 seeds then it gets to play closer to home. Every once in a while the committee will break one rule for another concept like total distance but it is usually only on the same seed line. KY really needs the committee to reconsider whether ND is more deserving of the second #1, but unless SC stumbles in the conference tournament I doubt they will because they consider the SEC stronger this year than the ACC.

 

[southie]

The 1 seeds get precedence on location based on their order and geography - if SC maintains the second position of #1 seeds then it gets to play closer to home. Every once in a while the committee will break one rule for another concept like total distance but it is usually only on the same seed line. KY really needs the committee to reconsider whether ND is more deserving of the second #1, but unless SC stumbles in the conference tournament I doubt they will because they consider the SEC stronger this year than the ACC.

Interesting. So, even though Lexington, KY is set to be a Regional site for the next 3 seasons, there is a chance that UK will never get to be seeded in their host regional if South Carolina is a fixture as a #1 seed over the next few years? I guess Notre Dame as the #1 seed helps UK have a chance to play on its home court come Regional time. Strange that NCAA appears to be moving toward making attendance a priority in sub-regionals, but not allowing a host school to be placed in its own regional goes against that premise.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

3 of the last 6 teams Louisville beat have losing records. RPI of 14 & SOS of 28. Not sure how they could be a 2 seed.

Louisville has one loss in the ACC. Beaten Syracuse, Florida State, Miami. Close loss to ND. One loss in last nineteen. Who else can say that among the power conferences?

 

[UcMiami]

Interesting. So, even though Lexington, KY is set to be a Regional site for the next 3 seasons, there is a chance that UK will never get to be seeded in their host regional if South Carolina is a fixture as a #1 seed over the next few years? I guess Notre Dame as the #1 seed helps UK have a chance to play on its home court come Regional time. Strange that NCAA appears to be moving toward making attendance a priority in sub-regionals, but not allowing a host school to be placed in its own regional goes against that premise.

Be careful of your use of 'host' in these terms as the rule is back to no school being able to 'host' a regional site - if it is their (or one of their) home arenas they cannot be assigned to that site. Hartford therefore had no interest in becoming a regional site while Bridgeport has to limit the number of Uconn regular season games they have to steer clear of becoming a 'home arena' (I think 2 is the maximum in any year.) KY women's basketball home court is not Rupp Arena (2 games) but Memorial Colosseum.

But yes - if they want to play there, they have to hope a non-SEC team gets assigned to that region before whatever seed they get. It would certainly be a little unfair on a better team to have to play 'on the road' against a worse seeded team. The same would be true for Bridgeport in terms of Uconn - though with the current sites all being east of the rockies the total mileage clause might be invoked for Say ND vs. Uconn getting Bridgeport should ND be seeded higher.

 

[southie]

Good point regarding Memorial Coliseum versus Rupp Arena.

Maybe I am reading this article incorrectly, but the UK reps sure do make it sound like being a Top 16 national seed would assure them of being placed in the Lexington Regional:

http://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-basketball-women/article44524818.html

 

[southie]

Good point regarding Memorial Coliseum versus Rupp Arena.

Maybe I am reading this article incorrectly, but the UK reps sure do make it sound like being a Top 16 national seed would assure them of being placed in the Lexington Regional:

http://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-basketball-women/article44524818.html

 

[UcMiami]

Good point regarding Memorial Coliseum versus Rupp Arena.

Maybe I am reading this article incorrectly, but the UK reps sure do make it sound like being a Top 16 national seed would assure them of being placed in the Lexington Regional:

http://www.kentucky.com/sports/college/kentucky-sports/uk-basketball-women/article44524818.html

"It gives us a pathway, if we take care of our business, to Final Fours for three straight years and we're excited about that," UK Athletics Director Mitch Barnhart told the Herald-Leader after Thursday's NCAA announcement that Rupp Arena will host region tournaments in 2016, 2017 and 2018.

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/sports/coll...ball-women/article44524818.html#storylink=cpy

The part highlighted in red is the important part of the article - KY most definitely has to take care of their business in order to be guaranteed that easy commute to the regional.

 

[Plebe]

Louisville has one loss in the ACC. Beaten Syracuse, Florida State, Miami. Close loss to ND. One loss in last nineteen. Who else can say that among the power conferences?

Louisville is playing very well, no doubt, but they don't have enough quality wins to compensate for their rocky start and overtake the current No. 2 seeds. Their best wins are over Syracuse, Florida State, and Michigan State. Solid wins, no doubt, but all of the top-10 teams actually have top-10 wins, except Maryland. The committee is clearly prioritizing quality wins and total resume over the "how are teams playing right now" test. Take away just 2 of Louisville's 4 bad early-season losses, and I'm sure they'd be a 2 seed, easily.

 

[Plebe]

No need to get too excited yet - lots of conference tournament play before the NCAA starts getting down to work.
Maryland is getting slammed for their OOC which they should be, but after i reviewed the Pac12, their OOC isn't exactly stunning - what helps them is RPI because their really bad teams played really terrible teams OOC and came into conference with gaudy W/L numbers.
As for 4 seeds - Syracuse is not a good team and is borderline at best as a 4 seed, so yeah they are likely the worst of the 16 top seeds.
And i agree that Louisville looks dangerous and much better than their record, but they started the year terribly losing 5 of 8 and that is hard to disguise and with a down year for the ACC they don't have any signature wins against teams in the top 16.

I'm not really sure that's the reason. The Pac-12 actually won a lower percentage of its OOC games than the Big 12, but its conference RPI is higher because (evidently) it played a tougher collective OOC schedule. SOS accounts for 75% of the RPI, the win-loss record only 25%.

 

[Plebe]

Two factors totally killed the ACC's conference RPI ranking this year: (a) Too many ACC teams played terribly weak nonconference schedules: 8 of the 15 teams in the ACC were outside the top 140 in NC SOS (compared to only one in the Pac-12). (b) Some of the better teams in the ACC underperformed in their nonconference schedule.