Analysis and Comments - UConn vs Iowa - Final Four (Game 5 - NCAA Tournament)

[MSGRET]

Last year Martin went 7-10 hitting all 6 of her 3 pt shots, I don't see that happening again this year. If UConn limits her below what she scored last year and keeps Clark below 30 points UConn wins.

 

[freshler40]

Thank you, @cferraro04, for yet another outstanding analysis.

I would just add that, as commentators have pointed out, Caitlin was able to go off in large part bc for some reason Kim had Hailey Van Lith, at 5'6", guarding her, and that was a massive mismatch from the start. Don't believe Geno will make the same mistake. Also, Angel Reese was flowing until she jammed her ankle; from then on, she was not the same.

Maybe none of that means anything; who knows. What I know is it's April, we're still playing, we're 40 minutes from the final, and anything can happen.

One key is Q. She is long, quick and rangy, somewhat unpredictable for us and them. Her size matches Clark well. Yes, fouls will happen, but she can be a pain for Clark who specializes in the step-back three pointer. Q needs to move her feel more and keep Clark in front of her. If she can play 10-15 minutes against Clark it will also rest the other Husky assigned to Clark. Game over.

 

[freshler40]

This sounds right, though I might put it the opposite way: Iowa will have to score at least 90 to win. That means 40+ from Caitlin and another 50 from the rest of the team.

That won't happen as we are one of the best defensive teams especially against teams of our size. Many of our losses were to very quick penetrating guards. Clark is one of these but likes to shoot 3 pointers more as does Iowa.

With some good minutes from Ice inside we can be a different more difficult team to penetrate. Ice also can set fine picks for our guards especially Paige who knows best how to use a pick or the pick and roll with Edwards. Our team play is growing rapidly as evidenced by our getting to the final four. We are a dangerous team. Go Huskies!

 

[Longtime fan]

I took another look at my analysis...I have it even with Ashlynn Shade and Sydney Affolter. But no matter how I look at the Gabbie Marshall vs KK Arnold match-up...I just don't see it other than a UConn Advantage. Is it possible in a single game for Gabbie to outplay KK? Sure it is...but, the numbers are the numbers and over the season KK has put up better numbers. She has done it on a team that is #5 RPI and #4 SOS. Gabbie will be playing against the #27 defense in WCBB while KK will be playing against the #314 defense in WCBB. After a careful re-evaluation...I have to respectfully disagree with you. The advantage stays with UConn.

Gabbie Marshall - 6.1 points per game
KK Arnold - 8.8 points per game

Gabbie Marshall - 1.1 rebounds per game
KK Arnold - 3.1 rebound per game

Gabbie Marshall - 1.7 assists per game
KK Arnold - 3.1 assists per game

Gabbie Marshall - 1.7 steals per game
KK Arnold - 2.2 steals per game

Gabbie Marshall - 1.7 three-pointers per game
KK Arnold - .7 three-pointers per game

Defense - Advantage - KK Arnold.

Overall - (Nothing has changed): Advantage - UConn

You have won me over.

 

[BRS24]

Interpret this as you will. Molly Davis gets some unfortunate news.

 

[Bone Dog]

Interpret this as you will. Molly Davis gets some unfortunate news.

I hope it’s nothing dreadful. She seems like a nice kid who’s worked hard to become a substantial part of the team.

 

[MSGRET]

Interpret this as you will. Molly Davis gets some unfortunate news.

Feel sorry for her, they work so hard to get here and can't play, same goes for all of the walking wounded on both teams.

 

[The deacon]

Interpret this as you will. Molly Davis gets some unfortunate news.

Heart-breaking moment for a really nice young woman. Thanks for sharing, BRS24.

 

[Ron and Vida]

Always proof read at least twice before posting, then once it's poster reread it. That's what I always do with Prognosticator's Predictions. By the way don't forget to post your prediction to the Prognosticator's thread.

Great advice
On more than one occasion I posted something in the heat of the moment that was regrettable
Just proofed this three times
Wish me luck!

 

[CleverLiz]

I hope it’s nothing dreadful. She seems like a nice kid who’s worked hard to become a substantial part of the team.

What happened and to whom?

 

[Bone Dog]

What happened and to whom?

see post #55 in this thread

 

[Pharos]

Excellent analysis, @cferraro04! And thank you for doing this yet again for the BY. It's a real service.

I think I agree with every aspect of this analysis. I also think we should win this one going away. The only question is whether fatigue will set in as is has in the last several games and allowed losing teams back into the game.

Can Affollter keep Ash from scoring? That's the big question for me, as I think Paige and Aaliyah will each score in the 20s. Ash has been smothered defensively the last two games. Will Iowa be able to do that? I have a suspicion she'll break out in this game. If she finds the range and scores near 20, the game is over.

I also think Ice and Q can play important roles in this game. The Iowa front court is not dominant and will not be able to contain either of them. I think we'll see Q the Defender in this game. She'll get steals rebounds and blocks... oh yes, and hit a couple 3s.

If Ashlynn is held in check by Sydney, then Sydney isn't bothering anyone else, and the middle is less congested. Keep moving Ashlynn!

 

[The CDR-Ret]

COMMENTS

UConn has been competing in the NCAA Tournament since 1989. This is their 23rd Final Four appearance. UConn women have advanced to the final four in 15 of the last 16 years. This is the fifth time that both the UConn men and the UConn women have advanced to the Final Four. It is no wonder Storrs, CT is referred to as "The Basketball Capitol of the World". The USC game was very tough. We were out-sized, they had a deeper bench, they had more upperclassmen starting, and their lone freshman starter was the second-best scorer in the country. Yet, our injury-laden team, complete with two freshmen starting and two coming off the bench found a way to prevail. While Las Vegas had us a 2 and half point favorite there were many pundits who thought that UConn had over-achieved to get to the elite 8 and had written them off as missing this year's Final Four. Rebecca Lobo...was the "lone wolf" (you like that "Lobo - Wolf"...just in case you didn't catch it). She unapologetically predicted UConn to beat USC. I had UConn by 4 points in the prognostication thread...and I was on the money up until the last two minutes when USC was intentionally fouling UConn. No matter I wouldn't want to spoil my record of not being able to get the score right all season. The injuries and depleted roster made it very difficult for me to predict the score and MOV. My homerism will not allow me to predict a loss for the Huskies because in my Blue/white-colored glass world does not allow me to consider such blasphemy. This game is no different. A precursory evaluation of the starters at first blush shows a UConn Advantage (more on that later in the analysis). This first look flies in the face of the fact that Iowa averages over 90 points per game. I think if UConn stays out of foul trouble and is able to play their brand of defense Iowa's final score will be below its average.

Caitlin Clark is Caitlin Clark...she is going to get hers. She is a high-volume shooter and even if she misses 7 or 8 in a row...she will keep on shooting and eventually she will start finding the basket. Her ability to get other players involved is equally challenging to her ability to score the basketball. Her 9 assists per game allow her to participate in roughly 70 percent of all the baskets made by the Iowa team. Hannah Stuelke and Kate Martin are a part of the Iowa Hawkeye's reputation of being an offensive juggernaut. UConn's strategy will have to be slowing down Caitlin enough to cause her to play below her averages while containing her supporting cast. This will only be accomplished if UConn is able to get its defense percolating on all cylinders.

Iowa will start:
1. Caitlin Clark, 6'0" - Senior Guard;
2. Hannah Stuelke, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward;
3. Kate Martin, 6'0" - Graduate Guard;
4. Sydney Affolter, 5'11" - Junior Guard;
5. Gabbie Marshall, 5'9" - Graduate Guard.

In close games, Iowa's coach will shorten its bench and its starters will all play most of the game. When they get a good-sized lead Iowa's coach will substitute liberally and spread out the minutes among the bench players. In close games, these three players will get the most minutes off the bench.

After Hannah Stuelke goes out of the game Iowa will play:
1. Addison O'Grady, 6'3" - Junior Forward / Center who averages 8 minutes per game;
2. Kylie Feierbach, 6'0" - RS Junior Guard who averages 14 minutes per game;
3. Sharon Goodman, 6'3" - RS Junior Center who averages who averages 9 minutes per game.

Iowa averages an astounding 91.9 points per game while holding opponents to 71.5 points per game. Their potent offense is augmented by their shooting 11.1 three-pointers per game. Their opponents average 7.9 threes per game. They are a pretty good rebounding team averaging 41.8 rebounds per game while holding their opponents to 34.8 rebounds. They move the ball around pretty good averaging 21.2 assists per game. They take pretty good care of the basketball turning it over 13.9 times per game while forcing their opponents to turn the basketball over 14.4 times per game. Their defense produces 7.5 steals per game while their opponent's average is 7.3 steals per game. They also are able to get 3.4 blocks per game.

Their RPI is 18 while UConn's is 4. Iowa's SOS is 21 and UConn's is 5. Their record is 33-4. UConn's defense is rated number 27 in the country while Iowa's is rated number 314.

Analysis

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Hannah Stuelke, 6'2" - Hannah averages 13.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, .8 steals. If she stays out of foul trouble she will play most of the game...If she gets into foul trouble then Addison O'Grady will come into the game. She averages 4.1 points and 1.9 rebounds. Aaliyah is gleeful that she has gotten the opportunity to play one more weekend with her team before she goes off to the WNBA. She will play hard to get her team into the finals as I am sure Hannah will also. Aaliyah averages 17.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. Advantage - UConn

Paige Beuckers, 6.0 vs Kate Martin, 6.0 - Kate averages 13.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.3 three-pointers, and 1.0 steals per game. Paige has been having an incredible post-season. It seems that she will not allow UConn to lose and always does what is needed when it is needed to ensure a victory. This was especially evident in the USC game. She is averaging 22.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.1 three-pointers, 2.3 steals, and 1.4 blocks. Advantage - UConn

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Caitlin Clark, 6'0" - Caitlin will get her points and assists as it is impossible to guard her for a whole game out at the logo. Even if she shoots poorly she will continue shooting and at the end of the day, she will get hers. We are hoping that Nika can keep her below her averages and that our other players can force Iowa to beat us from the other positions on the floor. That being said, Caitlin's numbers are just plain ridiculous. She is averaging 32 points, 7.3 rebounds 9.0 assists, 1.8 steals, and 5.2 three-pointers per game. NIka averages 6.8 points, 4 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. If Nika can stay out of foul trouble and keep Caitlin to the mid-twenties in scoring many would consider that a win...but from a strictly production level and from an overall impact on the game: Advantage - Iowa

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Sydney Affolter, 5'11" - Sydney will play most of the game if UConn keeps it close or leads. If Iowa gets out to a large lead then expect Molly Davis to get into the game or Kylie Freierback. Sydney averages 8.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and .6 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 11.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Advantage - Even

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Gabbie Marshall, 5'9" - Gabbie is averaging 6.1 points, 1.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.7 three-pointers, 1.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks...she is somewhat of a stat-stuffer and though her numbers may not be of the gaudy kind she impacts the game in many ways. In a way, she is a good match-up for KK. KK's defense may cause Gabbie to not be able to do what she wants to which will throw her off of her rhythm but we will have to see how that shakes out. KK averages 8.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .7 three-pointers. I believe KK's impact on the game will overshadow what it is that Gabbie is able to do in this game.
Advantage - UConn

BENCH

Iowa will bring 17.3 points and 8.9 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 9.4 points and 5.9 rebounds off the bench.
Advantage - Iowa

INTANGIBLES

UConn's short bench, Their small margin of error (magnifying their foul trouble), their lower offensive output, and they have Caitlin Clark all add up to Iowa's favor.
On the other hand, the fact that UConn's defense is rated 27 while Iowa's defense is rated 314, they are in the Final Four with nothing to lose (playing with the house's money so to speak), they have Paige Bueckers and Aaliyah Edwards and they have the coach of the year all add up to UConn's favor. Advantage - UConn

COACHING

Iowa has a very good coach and the players definitely have buy-in to her playbook however, Geno has done a remarkable job this year coaching this team and helping them to navigate the adversity that they have had to face. He has been here many times before. UConn's veteran coaching staff will have this team prepared for the Caitlin Clark show. Advantage - UConn

SCORE

UConn - 83
Iowa - 74

MOV - 9

You ARE the BEST ever at continuing to be positive! Keep it going against ALL of the "Nay Saying" as I say, "Aye, Aye Captain!"

 

[huskyd]

Probably best to forget about Caitlin. Received wisdom is that a single player will not be decisive over the course of a game. Because I could see so few UConn games this year, I wound up watching many of Iowa's. The team is pretty balanced, though no big is dominant. The Hawkeyes have a couple of outside shooters besides Clark, but, because of Caitlin, they don't have many attempts. Best bet for Iowa is to get Kate Martin running inside where Clark can find her with those laser passes. The Huskies' busy hands have a better chance at deflecting Caitin's passes than of shutting her down. Iowa is neither quick nor good on d. Feeding the post seems wise for UConn, not only to Aaliyah but to a cutting Paige. There's not much danger for UConn in accumulating fouls inside, but the Huskies should avoid trying to shut down Clark. Hope someone tells Nika. Try to slow down Caitlin, but don't lunge into her once she steps back. PS/Even Clark has off days . . . so prayer might be in order
(You have to wonder if Iowa will choose to ignore Ashade and provide her a chance to do some damage.)

 

[Pharos]

CAITLIN vs PAIGE:

On Monday night, Caitlin scored 41 against LSU, shooting 45% from the field. Paige scored 28 against USC, shooting 48% from the field.

Each player took 29 shots from the field. 20 of Caitlin's 29 FGAs were from 3-point range, making 9 of them (45%). 6 of Paige's 29 FGAs were from downtown, making 3 of them (50%).

I'm glad we have Paige, and they don't.

Caitlin only took 7 FTs against LSU; that's good. Iowa took 22 FTs altogether. Too many.

 

[The CDR-Ret]

Uconn-90 Iowa--70 MOV --20

Hope you nail the prognosticator points on this one! Then just one more step to #12!!!!

 

[PacoSwede]

my gambit would be:

let caitlin launch her bombs to her heart's content. if she's hot they're going in regardless of defender. focus should be on denying her the ball & top priority is doing everything possible to stop her drives to right side of the basket: get some charging calls on her, double or even triple team when she starts to drive right. clog her lane.

she gets a many of her points and assists this way -- layups on the right to score and get foul calls* (that often are not actual fouls) for 3 points without a rocket launch, OR an assist to an open shooter.

stop caitlin from exploiting those drives and her long-range treys won't matter (unless she gos enfuego). voila! it will frustrate her, and her magical weapon becomes just a sideshow.

 

[cferraro04]

Always proof read at least twice before posting, then once it's poster reread it. That's what I always do with Prognosticator's Predictions. By the way don't forget to post your prediction to the Prognosticator's thread.

Thanks, MSGRET...I must admit I am somewhat anxious for this one to get underway.

 

[Jaml]

Always proof read at least twice before posting, then once it's poster reread it. That's what I always do with Prognosticator's Predictions. By the way don't forget to post your prediction to the Prognosticator's thread.

"then once it's poster reread it." I see what you did there, you wanted to see if we were paying attention.

 

[Zarathustra]

Great analysis, as usual. I'd give a bit more of an edge to Marshall but that's quibbling. I think that Ice Brady will be the X factor. She's a blue chipper who will step up in this big game.

Go "ICE"... "cool" the Hawkeye's "jets"!! GO HUSKIES!

 

[Zarathustra]

Probably best to forget about Caitlin. Received wisdom is that a single player will not be decisive over the course of a game. Because I could see so few UConn games this year, I wound up watching many of Iowa's. The team is pretty balanced, though no big is dominant. The Hawkeyes have a couple of outside shooters besides Clark, but, because of Caitlin, they don't have many attempts. Best bet for Iowa is to get Kate Martin running inside where Clark can find her with those laser passes. The Huskies' busy hands have a better chance at deflecting Caitin's passes than of shutting her down. Iowa is neither quick nor good on d. Feeding the post seems wise for UConn, not only to Aaliyah but to a cutting Paige. There's not much danger for UConn in accumulating fouls inside, but the Huskies should avoid trying to shut down Clark. Hope someone tells Nika. Try to slow down Caitlin, but don't lunge into her once she steps back. PS/Even Clark has off days . . . so prayer might be in order
(You have to wonder if Iowa will choose to ignore Ashade and provide her a chance to do some damage.)

Go Ashlynn!! Many threes, also for Q , KK, and for that successful three pointer
shooter in the previous game.... who.? "ICE" from the left-hand corner! See
the highlight reel for the evidence! GO HUSKIES

 

[MSGRET]

"then once it's poster reread it." I see what you did there, you wanted to see if we were paying attention.

I did everything I stated and still missed it. I finally saw it after the 30 minutes had passed.

 

[cferraro04]

I did everything I stated and still missed it. I finally saw it after the 30 minutes had passed.

lol

 

[Dogstar]

Thanks, MSGRET...I must admit I am somewhat anxious for this one to get underway.

We all are..And in the words Mills Lane and Marvin Gaye

LET'S GET IT ON!!!

 

[Geesworld]

Liyah, 20 points 12rebs. I need that player tonight. Go UCONN!