Analysis and Comments - UConn vs Iowa - Final Four (Game 5 - NCAA Tournament)

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

UConn has been competing in the NCAA Tournament since 1989. This is their 23rd Final Four appearance. UConn women have advanced to the final four in 15 of the last 16 years. This is the fifth time that both the UConn men and the UConn women have advanced to the Final Four. It is no wonder Storrs, CT is referred to as "The Basketball Capitol of the World". The USC game was very tough. We were out-sized, they had a deeper bench, they had more upperclassmen starting, and their lone freshman starter was the second-best scorer in the country. Yet, our injury-laden team, complete with two freshmen starting and two coming off the bench found a way to prevail. While Las Vegas had us a 2 and half point favorite there were many pundits who thought that UConn had over-achieved to get to the elite 8 and had written them off as missing this year's Final Four. Rebecca Lobo...was the "lone wolf" (you like that "Lobo - Wolf"...just in case you didn't catch it). She unapologetically predicted UConn to beat USC. I had UConn by 4 points in the prognostication thread...and I was on the money up until the last two minutes when USC was intentionally fouling UConn. No matter I wouldn't want to spoil my record of not being able to get the score right all season. The injuries and depleted roster made it very difficult for me to predict the score and MOV. My homerism will not allow me to predict a loss for the Huskies because in my Blue/white-colored glass world does not allow me to consider such blasphemy. This game is no different. A precursory evaluation of the starters at first blush shows a UConn Advantage (more on that later in the analysis). This first look flies in the face of the fact that Iowa averages over 90 points per game. I think if UConn stays out of foul trouble and is able to play their brand of defense Iowa's final score will be below its average.

Caitlin Clark is Caitlin Clark...she is going to get hers. She is a high-volume shooter and even if she misses 7 or 8 in a row...she will keep on shooting and eventually she will start finding the basket. Her ability to get other players involved is equally challenging to her ability to score the basketball. Her 9 assists per game allow her to participate in roughly 70 percent of all the baskets made by the Iowa team. Hannah Stuelke and Kate Martin are a part of the Iowa Hawkeye's reputation of being an offensive juggernaut. UConn's strategy will have to be slowing down Caitlin enough to cause her to play below her averages while containing her supporting cast. This will only be accomplished if UConn is able to get its defense percolating on all cylinders.

Iowa will start:
1. Caitlin Clark, 6'0" - Senior Guard;
2. Hannah Stuelke, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward;
3. Kate Martin, 6'0" - Graduate Guard;
4. Sydney Affolter, 5'11" - Junior Guard;
5. Gabbie Marshall, 5'9" - Graduate Guard.

In close games, Iowa's coach will shorten its bench and its starters will all play most of the game. When they get a good-sized lead Iowa's coach will substitute liberally and spread out the minutes among the bench players. In close games, these three players will get the most minutes off the bench.

After Hannah Stuelke goes out of the game Iowa will play:
1. Addison O'Grady, 6'3" - Junior Forward / Center who averages 8 minutes per game;
2. Kylie Feierbach, 6'0" - RS Junior Guard who averages 14 minutes per game;
3. Sharon Goodman, 6'3" - RS Junior Center who averages who averages 9 minutes per game.

Iowa averages an astounding 91.9 points per game while holding opponents to 71.5 points per game. Their potent offense is augmented by their shooting 11.1 three-pointers per game. Their opponents average 7.9 threes per game. They are a pretty good rebounding team averaging 41.8 rebounds per game while holding their opponents to 34.8 rebounds. They move the ball around pretty good averaging 21.2 assists per game. They take pretty good care of the basketball turning it over 13.9 times per game while forcing their opponents to turn the basketball over 14.4 times per game. Their defense produces 7.5 steals per game while their opponent's average is 7.3 steals per game. They also are able to get 3.4 blocks per game.

Their RPI is 18 while UConn's is 4. Iowa's SOS is 21 and UConn's is 5. Their record is 33-4. UConn's defense is rated number 27 in the country while Iowa's is rated number 314.

Analysis

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Hannah Stuelke, 6'2" - Hannah averages 13.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, .8 steals. If she stays out of foul trouble she will play most of the game...If she gets into foul trouble then Addison O'Grady will come into the game. She averages 4.1 points and 1.9 rebounds. Aaliyah is gleeful that she has gotten the opportunity to play one more weekend with her team before she goes off to the WNBA. She will play hard to get her team into the finals as I am sure Hannah will also. Aaliyah averages 17.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. Advantage - UConn

Paige Beuckers, 6.0 vs Kate Martin, 6.0 - Kate averages 13.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.3 three-pointers, and 1.0 steals per game. Paige has been having an incredible post-season. It seems that she will not allow UConn to lose and always does what is needed when it is needed to ensure a victory. This was especially evident in the USC game. She is averaging 22.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.1 three-pointers, 2.3 steals, and 1.4 blocks. Advantage - UConn

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Caitlin Clark, 6'0" - Caitlin will get her points and assists as it is impossible to guard her for a whole game out at the logo. Even if she shoots poorly she will continue shooting and at the end of the day, she will get hers. We are hoping that Nika can keep her below her averages and that our other players can force Iowa to beat us from the other positions on the floor. That being said, Caitlin's numbers are just plain ridiculous. She is averaging 32 points, 7.3 rebounds 9.0 assists, 1.8 steals, and 5.2 three-pointers per game. NIka averages 6.8 points, 4 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. If Nika can stay out of foul trouble and keep Caitlin to the mid-twenties in scoring many would consider that a win...but from a strictly production level and from an overall impact on the game: Advantage - Iowa

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Sydney Affolter, 5'11" - Sydney will play most of the game if UConn keeps it close or leads. If Iowa gets out to a large lead then expect Molly Davis to get into the game or Kylie Freierback. Sydney averages 8.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and .6 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 11.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Advantage - Even

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Gabbie Marshall, 5'9" - Gabbie is averaging 6.1 points, 1.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.7 three-pointers, 1.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks...she is somewhat of a stat-stuffer and though her numbers may not be of the gaudy kind she impacts the game in many ways. In a way, she is a good match-up for KK. KK's defense may cause Gabbie to not be able to do what she wants to which will throw her off of her rhythm but we will have to see how that shakes out. KK averages 8.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .7 three-pointers. I believe KK's impact on the game will overshadow what it is that Gabbie is able to do in this game.
Advantage - UConn

BENCH

Iowa will bring 17.3 points and 8.9 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 9.4 points and 5.9 rebounds off the bench.
Advantage - Iowa

INTANGIBLES

UConn's short bench, Their small margin of error (magnifying their foul trouble), their lower offensive output, and they have Caitlin Clark all add up to Iowa's favor.
On the other hand, the fact that UConn's defense is rated 27 while Iowa's defense is rated 314, they are in the Final Four with nothing to lose (playing with the house's money so to speak), they have Paige Bueckers and Aaliyah Edwards and they have the coach of the year all add up to UConn's favor. Advantage - UConn

COACHING

Iowa has a very good coach and the players definitely have buy-in to her playbook however, Geno has done a remarkable job this year coaching this team and helping them to navigate the adversity that they have had to face. He has been here many times before. UConn's veteran coaching staff will have this team prepared for the Caitlin Clark show. Advantage - UConn

SCORE

UConn - 83
Iowa - 74

MOV - 9

 

[BobbyJ]

Jeez, Edwards has really shrunk a lot since last night. That's a bad size matchup now.

 

[Cornell Lt]

KK vs Gabbie - Gabbie is a much better shooter than KK (especially from beyond the arc). KK is better defensively, when she plays under control, which has been a problem at times. Gabbie is a senior who's been to a final four and KK is a freshman - ADVANTAGE GABBIE

 

[Next 12]

Uconn-90 Iowa--70 MOV --20

 

[Bone Dog]

Excellent analysis, @cferraro04! And thank you for doing this yet again for the BY. It's a real service.

I think I agree with every aspect of this analysis. I also think we should win this one going away. The only question is whether fatigue will set in as is has in the last several games and allowed losing teams back into the game.

Can Affollter keep Ash from scoring? That's the big question for me, as I think Paige and Aaliyah will each score in the 20s. Ash has been smothered defensively the last two games. Will Iowa be able to do that? I have a suspicion she'll break out in this game. If she finds the range and scores near 20, the game is over.

I also think Ice and Q can play important roles in this game. The Iowa front court is not dominant and will not be able to contain either of them. I think we'll see Q the Defender in this game. She'll get steals rebounds and blocks... oh yes, and hit a couple 3s.

 

[pvdoggy]

Jeez, Edwards has really shrunk a lot since last night. That's a bad size matchup now.

Too much celebration.

 

[kidfrom360]

UConn 75
Iowa 69
MOV 6

 

[cferraro04]

UConn 75
Iowa 69
MOV 6

please remember to post your prediction on the prognosticator's thread when it is posted.

 

[cferraro04]

Uconn-90 Iowa--70 MOV --20

Please remember to post your prediction to the prognosticator's thread when it is posted.

 

[Ozimoto]

Of the remaining teams in the tournament, I think UConn matches up best against Iowa, and has shown this in the two games that the teams have played in the Caitlin era. The huskies must keep her supporting cast bottled up though. Caitlin will get hers, although Nika has held her below her average in past games. If UConn can hold the rest of the Iowa players below their averages, they have a good shot at winning. Paige and Aliyah will need some support from the freshmen scoring wise and Nika will have to play smart and stay in the game, but this one feels like the Huskies should win.

 

[HailUConn]

Watched LSU vs Iowa, the key for us to win the match is to switch everything with Paige/Nika/Ash/KK on Caitlin for she is the straw that stirs the drink. Even the announcers said on the TV that why it took so long for LSU to switch on Caitlin when it's too late. You cannot go under screen.

 

[Bone Dog]

… but this one feels like the Huskies should win.

You ve expressed my feelings perfectly. The only thing I’d change is that this one feels like a game we can win, perhaps even more than the previous two.

The main thing Iowa has going for them, beyond the intensity of Caitlin’s will to win, is a seasoned veteran squad with a little more depth. UConn has fewer veterans, but Paige’s will to win is at least comparable to Caitlin’s, and Nika may have more ferocity than anyone else on the floor.

The problem is when we’re talking about players like Paige and Caitlin it’s really hard to guess how it will turn out. Each is capable of pulling off miracles. The one thing that seems certain is that there will be magic on that floor Friday evening.

 

[Geew1992]

I predict Edwards will have a monster game.

 

[Big Fan]

What did OSU and Indiana do against them? I'll bet someone is watching

 

[BrewHawk]

Went back and watched Iowa/UConn from 11/22. If I were Geno, I would feed the post all day long and play inside-out. I don't think we can handle Aaliyah at all My biggest concern for Iowa is defense, so good ball movement and post feeds should do the trick.

I think Caitlin will be better about off-the-ball movement and driving the ball this time. She was pretty stagnant that entire game when she didn't have the ball in her hands. If she plays the way she did vs. LSU, it's an Iowa win by 10. If she doesn't, then I think it's a tossup favoring UConn slightly.

Iowa's best chance is to make it an up and down game, hoping to wear out the Huskies thin lineup and draw fouls. If UConn keeps Iowa under 80, they win again. When I look at Iowa's 2-5 compared to UConn's 2-5, I certainly don't see an advantage.

The difference between this game and the last is that this is a win or go home situation. I think you see a different Caitlin than you did the last time the Hawks and Huskies played. Should be a good one.

 

[Maleficent9]

i do think iowa has the advantage in experience even though we have our 3 seniors. it will be a loud crowd, surely a lot of iowa fans in there. they have cc so they are used to playing in front of huge sell out crowds. we’ve played in big crowds before too, but not to the extent of iowa. i think they may have that edge esp with our 4 freshmen first time experiencing a final four. but they handled in well against usc

 

[Artifact]

Clark needs the ball to score. Therefore to get a 'high score' , she needs to be fed the ball, frequently ! Look at the people ,who mainly feed her the ball ! NO ball , NO bucket !

 

[cgshuskie]

CC will attempt to shot threes but NIka, KK, Paige cannot let her go left around a pick and then step back 3. Uconn should trap Clark eveey time she dribbles past another player. Make her pick up the ball. Then cover her to avoid a pass back three. Make her attempt a long pass to an uncovered teammate. I think that this strategy will limit CC and force the other Iowa players to beat Uconn, which they cannot do! Go Huskies Make CC pick up her dribble with blitzes. This game will be a track meet and the most resiliant will prevail.

 

[Zinethar]

During the last 4 years UConn has been in the final 4 3 times - missing only last year when Paige missed the entire season. Iowa has been in the final 4 twice - the last 2 years. Not sure what that proves but advantage UConn. UConn has won their past 2 meetings. I like our chances!

 

[cometjo]

Jeez, Edwards has really shrunk a lot since last night. That's a bad size matchup now.

I think she gave some of her height to KK

 

[cferraro04]

Whoever the moderator was that edited my post and changed Aaliyah's height from 5'3" to 6'3"....THANK YOU!

 

[Bone Dog]

Went back and watched Iowa/UConn from 11/22. If I were Geno, I would feed the post all day long and play inside-out. I don't think we can handle Aaliyah at all My biggest concern for Iowa is defense, so good ball movement and post feeds should do the trick.

I think Caitlin will be better about off-the-ball movement and driving the ball this time. She was pretty stagnant that entire game when she didn't have the ball in her hands. If she plays the way she did vs. LSU, it's an Iowa win by 10. If she doesn't, then I think it's a tossup favoring UConn slightly.

Iowa's best chance is to make it an up and down game, hoping to wear out the Huskies thin lineup and draw fouls. If UConn keeps Iowa under 80, they win again. When I look at Iowa's 2-5 compared to UConn's 2-5, I certainly don't see an advantage.

The difference between this game and the last is that this is a win or go home situation. I think you see a different Caitlin than you did the last time the Hawks and Huskies played. Should be a good one.

This is a good analysis. I know what you mean about Iowa’s defense. They give up a lot of points. But they can play good defense and the way they play is well suited to defending Geno’s motion offense. The one thing I disagree about is Aaliyah vs Hannah. That’s a significant advantage for UConn. But the rest of the 2-5 is a wash, I think, and the greater depth of experience is an advantage for Iowa. This is why I’ve said I think Ash is the key. If she’s able to get loose and hit her shots, I think it will be very difficult for Hannah to contain Aaliyah with no help. But if Ash can’t score much then Iowa has a good chance — they’d just need Caitlin to outscore Paige, which is not out of the realm of the possible.

 

[BrewHawk]

This is a good analysis. I know what you mean about Iowa’s defense. They give up a lot of points. But they can play good defense and the way they play is well suited to defending Geno’s motion offense. The one thing I disagree about is Aaliyah vs Hannah. That’s a significant advantage for UConn. But the rest of the 2-5 is a wash, I think, and the greater depth of experience is an advantage for Iowa. This is why I’ve said I think Ash is the key. If she’s able to get loose and hit her shots, I think it will be very difficult for Hannah to contain Aaliyah with no help. But if Ash can’t score much then Iowa has a good chance — they’d just need Caitlin to outscore Paige, which is not out of the realm of the possible.

Yeah, I didn't phrase that very well. I meant Iowa's 2-5 does not have an advantage over UConn's. I agree that Aaliyah will be too much for Hannah to handle.

 

[BfromCT]

All of us are both extremely pleased and somewhat surprised that our thin Husky squad has advanced to its 15th final four in 16 years. In an earlier post, I postulated that UConn was a Sweet Sixteen level team and in my own personal bracket had the team losing to USC in the regional finals. Am happy that the team will be facing Iowa instead of LSU in the next game. LSU is too big, strong, and quick for UConn. The Huskies have a chance against Caitlin Clark and Iowa and should be competitive, but a victory?

Given the ratings gold that Caitlin Clark brings to ESPN, the obvious question is, why Don’t the powers that be switch the times of the two games and put UConn-Iowa in the 7:00 PM slot? At 7:00, the ratings would be huge, but at 9:30-10:00, not any where near as much.

Clark gets all the publicity for Iowa and deservedly so, but the remaining starters are all quality players, as MSGRET shows in the lead for prognosticator’s predictions. And as we all realize, the game really depends on controlling Clark. All other things playing out as might be anticipated, if Clark can be held to no more than 30 points, the Huskies could well win. She will have to be closely guarded from mid-court onwards and it will be interesting (and of critical importance) how well Nika, aided by KK and Paige succeed. If Paige continues to be Paige, Edwards has a 20 and 10 game, the freshmen contribute around 30 points, and the team can remain out of foul trouble, victory is certainly possible.