A new thought just occurred to me re #2 seeds

[UcMiami]

So watching UCLA struggle against USC, I had a sudden thought, does any team want to get the 4th number 2 seed and end up in Bridgeport? So far:
TX took care of business and is pretty locked into a top three #2 seed guaranteeing either Sioux Falls or Lexington (Dallas is out because of Baylor)
MD took care of business and is also locked into on of the top three which should see them anywhere but Bridgeport
ASU lost early, escaping a #2 seeding
tOSU crapped out today moving into #3 seed territory
Louisville, Stanford, KY, TAMU, and FSU all declared clearly in the last two days that they would rather not have that honor of moving into that spot!

We will see how Oregon State handles themselves - a win probably guarantees them Sioux Falls, a loss and it really will get interesting.

ASU made the first move with their loss, and it looks like everyone else is just saying, no, we think you really already earned it, we wouldn't want to displace you.

 

[mudcat]

So watching UCLA struggle against USC, I had a sudden thought, does any team want to get the 4th number 2 seed and end up in Bridgeport? So far:
TX took care of business and is pretty locked into a top three #2 seed guaranteeing either Sioux Falls or Lexington (Dallas is out because of Baylor)
MD took care of business and is also locked into on of the top three which should see them anywhere but Bridgeport
ASU lost early, escaping a #2 seeding
tOSU crapped out today moving into #3 seed territory
Louisville, Stanford, KY, TAMU, and FSU all declared clearly in the last two days that they would rather not have that honor of moving into that spot!

We will see how Oregon State handles themselves - a win probably guarantees them Sioux Falls, a loss and it really will get interesting.

ASU made the first move with their loss, and it looks like everyone else is just saying, no, we think you really already earned it, we wouldn't want to displace you.

Is this a serious post???

 

[ochoopsfan]

So watching UCLA struggle against USC, I had a sudden thought,
.

UCLA struggled with Cal.
USC lost last night to Oregon State.
Its hard to tell the west coast teams apart considering most games are played after so many BY'ers are fast asleep

 

[UcMiami]

Is this a serious post???

No - but if UCLA had lost tonight and if Washington were to beat Oregon State (and they are leading at the half) then the teams ranked #8-12 as well as #14 and 15 would all have lost to unranked (or in FSU's case, lesser ranked) teams this weekend - a pretty astonishing number of highly considered teams.

Maybe this is a reflection of the 'parity' everyone is hoping for.

[The fact that #12 UCLA needed a three pointer to force overtime against a team not destined for the tournament, and that #8 Oregon State will need to come from behind in the second half against an unranked team to avoid the above scenario is still pretty amazing.]

Ochoopsfan - thanks for the correction - I mix those two 'disappointing' Pac12 schools up for some reason.

 

[Plebe]

No - but if UCLA had lost tonight and if Washington were to beat Oregon State (and they are leading at the half) then the teams ranked #8-12 as well as #14 and 15 would all have lost to unranked (or in FSU's case, lesser ranked) teams this weekend - a pretty astonishing number of highly considered teams.

Maybe this is a reflection of the 'parity' everyone is hoping for.

[The fact that #12 UCLA needed a three pointer to force overtime against a team not destined for the tournament, and that #8 Oregon State will need to come from behind in the second half against an unranked team to avoid the above scenario is still pretty amazing.]

Ochoopsfan - thanks for the correction - I mix those two 'disappointing' Pac12 schools up for some reason.

Believe it or not, it had crossed my mind, over the course of these top-10 "reveals" by the committee, that we could end up in a situation where a team would find it in their interest to lose a late-season game in order to avoid certain sections of the bracket. And if you think that could never happen, think again:

http://www.latimes.com/sports/sport...-teams-banned-tanking-20150224-htmlstory.html

 

[Wbbfan1]

Don't see how Maryland doesn't end up in the Bridgeport Regional. Committee sends schools as they are ranked on the S Curve and uses geography to place schools. Maryland will be the #1 2 seed and will get placed first. Bridgeport is closer to College Park MD then Lexington Kentucky is.

 

[HuskyNan]

Don't see how Maryland doesn't end up in the Bridgeport Regional. Committee sends schools as they are ranked on the S Curve and uses geography to place schools. Maryland will be the #1 2 seed and will get placed first. Bridgeport is closer to College Park MD then Lexington Kentucky is.

This is my understanding as well.

 

[Vowelguy]

Don't see how Maryland doesn't end up in the Bridgeport Regional. Committee sends schools as they are ranked on the S Curve and uses geography to place schools. Maryland will be the #1 2 seed and will get placed first. Bridgeport is closer to College Park MD then Lexington Kentucky is.

Committee switched to using true S curve one or two years ago. So in theory it's 1 vs 8, 2 vs 7, etc. I say in theory because there are additional factors. For example, Baylor (#4) and Texas (5) can't be in the same region. Additionally the brackets need to be balanced to be roughly equal in strength.
Unclear how geography factors in. If MD is #7, would they be put closer to home in Bridgeport? Perhaps. If they are a #6, I would guess not.

 

[UcMiami]

Don't see how Maryland doesn't end up in the Bridgeport Regional. Committee sends schools as they are ranked on the S Curve and uses geography to place schools. Maryland will be the #1 2 seed and will get placed first. Bridgeport is closer to College Park MD then Lexington Kentucky is.

Maryland likely will be the third #2 seed behind Texas and Oregon State because their SOS/RPI is significantly worse than those two teams after playing a pretty dreadful OOC (Prior to this weekend the NCAA reveal had them as #9 for that reason, but they have moved up because of unexpected losses by those in front of them.) And the committee splits time between honoring the S curve and honoring the geographical location so you never know which will win out.

 

[southie]

Still some important factors to be completed regarding the #1 seeds. If South Carolina loses to MSU, and ND beats Syracuse, then ND goes to Lexington, and South Carolina would go to Dallas (if committee has them in front of Baylor).

I still think Maryland is going to Bridgeport, but perhaps the committee will consider that placing Maryland in Lexington could help increase ticket sales a bit; but, placing OSU as the #3 seed in Lexington accomplishes the same thing.

 

[meyers7]

Is this a serious post???

Is yours?

 

[UcMiami]

Still some important factors to be completed regarding the #1 seeds. If South Carolina loses to MSU, and ND beats Syracuse, then ND goes to Lexington, and South Carolina would go to Dallas (if committee has them in front of Baylor).

I still think Maryland is going to Bridgeport, but perhaps the committee will consider that placing Maryland in Lexington could help increase ticket sales a bit; but, placing OSU as the #3 seed in Lexington accomplishes the same thing.

Pretty sure they would consider the difference in distance between Dallas and Sioux Falls to be insignificant for SC while the difference for Baylor is significant. As long as Baylor is a #1 seed and they just need to get to the final to guarantee that, they will be in Dallas.

Charlie's latest bracket has OSU as a 2 seed in Bridgeport with UCLA as the 3 seed - both OSU and ASU lost before they should have, but unlike the ASU/Maryland comparison, OSU has a better RPI than ASU and two wins against Maryland to hang their hat on.

 

[Jim R]

Pretty sure they would consider the difference in distance between Dallas and Sioux Falls to be insignificant for SC while the difference for Baylor is significant. As long as Baylor is a #1 seed and they just need to get to the final to guarantee that, they will be in Dallas.

Charlie's latest bracket has OSU as a 2 seed in Bridgeport with UCLA as the 3 seed - both OSU and ASU lost before they should have, but unlike the ASU/Maryland comparison, OSU has a better RPI than ASU and two wins against Maryland to hang their hat on.

He's now placed Maryland as #2 in Lexington. Not a good matchup for the Gamecocks. I, for one, hope the #2 seeds remain as they are currently. But, the SEC with 9? Both Auburn & Missouri faded down the stretch.

 

[EricLA]

FWIW the team I want to see most in UCONN's bracket is Oregon State. The team I want to see least is Maryland. Either way UCONN will have tough games from the elite 8 on (no offense to the competition, but I don't see us struggling with the 4-5 seeds we'd likely face in the sweet 16).

I'd also like to add I prefer a 2 seed we've not played yet this season. Tough call since we played most of the top 10 teams already...

 

[MilfordHusky]

If the NCAA goes strictly by the S curve, we might get Maryland, but I don't think we should. Why?

1. I think Maryland is way better than the #8 team. They lost a close one to UConn (our closest game by far) and got outscored by 8 and 9 against OSU. I think they are the #4 or 5 team in the country, especially if they win today.

2. We've already played them. We should get someone different of roughly equal caliber.

3. They shoot the ball well. I think they and ND are the toughest teams for us to play. If we play them, it should be a Final Four game.

 

[gamer]

UConn, fear Baylor. At least that's my take after watching them lately. And next year, you don't even want to think about it.

 

[mudcat]

No - but if UCLA had lost tonight and if Washington were to beat Oregon State (and they are leading at the half) then the teams ranked #8-12 as well as #14 and 15 would all have lost to unranked (or in FSU's case, lesser ranked) teams this weekend - a pretty astonishing number of highly considered teams.

Maybe this is a reflection of the 'parity' everyone is hoping for.

[The fact that #12 UCLA needed a three pointer to force overtime against a team not destined for the tournament, and that #8 Oregon State will need to come from behind in the second half against an unranked team to avoid the above scenario is still pretty amazing.]

Ochoopsfan - thanks for the correction - I mix those two 'disappointing' Pac12 schools up for some reason.

I thought you were implying that some of those schools would purposely lose to avoid going to Bridgeport. At this point I don't think ANY team wants a loss of any kind. I think I misread your post and, if I did, my apologies.

 

[CTtransplant]

Here is a detailed description of how the committee seeds the teams and then allocates the seeds to regions. It is complicated enough that many many outcomes are possible.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_basketball_tournament_selection_process

 

[UcMiami]

If the NCAA goes strictly by the S curve, we might get Maryland, but I don't think we should. Why?

1. I think Maryland is way better than the #8 team. They lost a close one to UConn (our closest game by far) and got outscored by 8 and 9 against OSU. I think they are the #4 or 5 team in the country, especially if they win today.

2. We've already played them. We should get someone different of roughly equal caliber.

3. They shoot the ball well. I think they and ND are the toughest teams for us to play. If we play them, it should be a Final Four game.

Maryland definitely moved up to #7 with their conference win and ASU bowing out so early. I suspect the new top sixteen sequence will be -
Uconn, SC, ND, Baylor unchanged
OrSt (Dallas)
Tx (should in my mind be about 8 but not happening) Sioux Falls (can't be in Dallas)
Maryland (Lex)
UCLA (Bridgeport)
ASU (Sioux Falls - can't be in Dallas or Bridgeport)
OSU (Bridgeport)
KY (Dallas - can't be in Lex)
Louisville (Lex)
Stanford (Lex - can't be anywhere else)
Syracuse (Bridgeport)
DePaul (Sioux Falls)
MichState (Dallas)

 

[TerpWomenFan]

I know Maryland fans are hoping Baylor crushes Texas tonight. Then maybe we can move up to #6 overall seed.

 

[UcMiami]

I know Maryland fans are hoping Baylor crushes Texas tonight. Then maybe we can move up to #6 overall seed.

I don't think it will matter - I think MD is pretty locked into Lexington and that is a pretty good spot for them - I think they would really challenge SC.

 

[Fairfield Fan]

Perhaps too early for seedings speculation, but here goes.

Though Baylor is going to be very formidable, I think they're the #4 team in the country, so deserve to be the team that UConn needs to go through to get to the championship game. The 2 seed in the East should be Oregon State, and they should have to get through 3 seed Stanford in order to get to UConn. UConn deserves to play Mississippi State as the 4 seed. That corresponds to current rankings, which I think are accurate for the top 16 right now. We should cruise into the Elite Eight. But from there, it will be three very difficult games against teams that have earned their rankings.

 

[Vowelguy]

The 2 seed in the East should be Oregon State, and they should have to get through 3 seed Stanford in order to get to UConn.

Starting with last year, two teams from the same conference cannot be in the top 4 of the same region.

In the last committee rankings, Oregon St was #6. Since then, they've won the Pac tourney title. They are not likely to be lower than 6th, which suggests they will be with #3 Notre Dame in Sioux Falls.

 

[UcMiami]

Perhaps too early for seedings speculation, but here goes.

Though Baylor is going to be very formidable, I think they're the #4 team in the country, so deserve to be the team that UConn needs to go through to get to the championship game. The 2 seed in the East should be Oregon State, and they should have to get through 3 seed Stanford in order to get to UConn. UConn deserves to play Mississippi State as the 4 seed. That corresponds to current rankings, which I think are accurate for the top 16 right now. We should cruise into the Elite Eight. But from there, it will be three very difficult games against teams that have earned their rankings.

Stanford and Oregon State cannot be in the same region by rule. The committee has to split up Stanford, ASU, UCLA, and Oregon State into different regions presuming they are all within the top 16 teams. With ASU's loss they have moved out of the 2 seed line, and with Stanford's loss they have moved out of the 3 seed line - that leaves Oregon State and UCLA in the 2 seed line most likely, and Oregon State is obviously the higher of the two so should go to any region but Bridgeport - most likely Dallas or Sioux Falls. UCLA is probably the worst #2 seed so they probably earned the ticket to Bridgeport. That leaves Stanford and ASU to be distributed to Lexington and whichever region OSU is not assigned to.

 

[Vowelguy]

Starting with last year, two teams from the same conference cannot be in the top 4 of the same region.

In the last committee rankings, Oregon St was #6. Since then, they've won the Pac tourney title. They are not likely to be lower than 6th, which suggests they will be with #3 Notre Dame in Sioux Falls.

Edit: Oregon St will likely be in Dallas, since #5 Texas cant be in the same region as #4 Baylor.