WNBA Rookie of the year

[bballnut90]

So the defense for AO's shooting% is that she's taking a ton of desperation shots at the buzzer? I don't know how accurate that is but if it is, why is that the case?


Yes, more shots for McCowan would mean more points. Though I hope you see the difference in McCowan's Shaq-like scoring skills and Collier's ability to hit nearly every shot in the book.

It's that she:
1. is a guard, guards on average shoot for lower percentages than forwards
2. has the defense keying on her due to lack of a good supporting cast. She's the Wings go to player and their bail out player. She doesn't have a Fowles inside or Sims on the perimeter to help carry the load. End of shot clock situations go to Arike for the Wings, they don't for Collier. As a result, Arike is taking a great number of shots in more difficult situations than Collier faces. As a result Arike has great scoring with less efficiency than Collier. Whether that's an argument for Arike or Collier is subjective.

 

[azfan]

If there's a poll on the ND board, I'm guessing it's probably very pro AO.

Couldn't find a poll ..... Did find this post

She is having a great year. The local paper said it's NC or AO, with NC more likely.

Minnesota is stumping for Napheesa C.

ndnation.com

 

[UConnCat]

Because if Collier becomes Minnesota's bail out player, she's taking a greater number of significantly lower percentage shots than she is right now.

Talk about bold assumptions. Who said anything about becoming a bail-out player? Taking 6 mores shots per game does not mean becoming a bail-out player. Strange.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

It's that she:
1. is a guard, guards on average shoot for lower percentages than forwards
2. has the defense keying on her due to lack of a good supporting cast. She's the Wings go to player and their bail out player. She doesn't have a Fowles inside or Sims on the perimeter to help carry the load. End of shot clock situations go to Arike for the Wings, they don't for Collier. As a result, Arike is taking a great number of shots in more difficult situations than Collier faces. As a result Arike has great scoring with less efficiency than Collier. Whether that's an argument for Arike or Collier is subjective.

Again, I don't think the issue is that Collier shoots a higher percentage in general. It's just that Collier is, as she has always been, incredibly efficient despite the fact that she takes all manner of shots. Now, Arike takes all kinds of shots too from a guard's perspective, but she's never exactly been an efficient finisher. She makes up for that some with all the free throws.

Hard to quantify and not talked about is defense. I admit to not seeing a ton of AO as a pro yet, but Collier's defense has been terrific and that's not UConn fan hype. That's been noted by league observers.

 

[bballnut90]

Again, I don't think the issue is that Collier shoots a higher percentage in general. It's just that Collier is, as she has always been, incredibly efficient despite the fact that she takes all manner of shots. Now, Arike takes all kinds of shots too from a guard's perspective, but she's never exactly been an efficient finisher. She makes up for that some with all the free throws.

Hard to quantify and not talked about is defense. I admit to not seeing a ton of AO as a pro yet, but Collier's defense has been terrific and that's not UConn fan hype. That's been noted by league observers.

I agree with that. As I stated with my original post (the one in which I referred to your argument as weak), both Arike and Pheesa have strong arguments for ROY and for very different reasons. Who voters select for the award likely comes down to what they value more in a ROY, or quite frankly, which player they like more.

 

[Orangutan]

Really, the comparable player on the Lynx to Ogunbowale is Sims.

Arike has a usage % of 28.6 and a true shooting % of 49.6. Sims is at 24.5 usg% and 48.8 TS%

The proper comparison points for Arike are other high-usage guards. For guards who play at least 15 mpg with 23 or greater usg%, Arike's 49.6 TS% trails only DeShields (50.3) and Hayes (49.7). She's ahead of Sims, Hartley, Loyd, K. Mitchell, and Bentley.

(EDD laps everyone with a preposterous 63.2 TS% on 25.2% usg but it's ridiculous that the official stats still class her as a guard. She's a power forward.)

23 is sort of an arbitrary place to draw the line, but I wanted to keep the group pretty limited to illustrate that it is difficult to score efficiently on a very high usage. Arike is ahead of all-stars like Sims and Loyd in that department and nipping at the heels of two more all-stars in DeShields and Hayes.

If you broaden it out to guards with usage over 20%, Arike finishes mid-pack in TS% - 7th out of 17. The leader in that group is Kia Nurse who is just over the 20-mark at 20.3, which again underscores the point that there is generally an inverse correlation between usage and efficiency. 15th out of 17 is Arike's teammate Kaela Davis, which shows you why Dallas is happy to have Arike shoot instead.

 

[Orangutan]

Among 9 Lynx players who play greater than 15 mpg and have played greater than 10 games - Collier is 7th in FGA/40 minutes.

Among Lynx starters, she has to be considered no more than a 3rd option behind Fowles and Sims.

It's just really hard to compare Ogunbowale and Collier directly because they are totally different players being asked to play in totally different roles.

Collier is a swiss army knife who does everything well and can afford to pick her spots offensively given the composition of her team. Importantly, she picks them very well and thus makes a meaningful scoring contribution in addition to her defense, rebounding, etc.

Arike is primarily a scorer and she's being asked to carry the load for Dallas as both their lead scorer and distributor. There's a much, much greater offensive burden on her shoulders and she's generally handled it well after a sometimes rocky start to the season (e.g. 2 for 23). Her defense is more of a work-in-progress compare to Collier's already standout D.

It's truly shame that there aren't two awards. Both have been outstanding.

The one deciding edge Collier may have is that she's been more consistent. If it were post-break only, I'd probably go for Arike, but Pheesa has been good since day 1 whereas it took Arike a little time to adjust.

(Ok, these two posts constitute my well-considered thoughts on the matter. I now return to memes, sarcasm, and homerism.)

 

[maccca3232]

Did any of these winners have as much competition as the three rookies have this season? I'm curious.

Competition is relative.

This will be the third time since 2005 that 3 different rookies have led PER, Win Shares (WS) and PPG.

Each category has 11 of 14 leaders winning ROY.

Led 3 of 3 - 7 (Parker, McCoughtry, Charles, Nneka, EED, Stewie, Wilson)
Led 2 of 3 - 5 (Johnson, Augustus, Moore, Chiney, Gray)
Led 1 of 3 - 2 (Herrington, Loyd)



2007
ROY = Herrington

PER 15.5 Herrington
WS 2.4 Spencer
PPG 11.7 Harding

2015
ROY = Loyd

PER 19 Boyd
WS 3.7 Stokes
PPG 10.7 Loyd

2019
ROY = TBC

PER 22.8 McCowan
WS 4.8 Collier
PPG 18.5 Ogunbowale

 

[eebmg]

Competition is relative.

This will be the third time since 2005 that 3 different rookies have led PER, Win Shares (WS) and PPG.

Each category has 11 of 14 leaders winning ROY.

Led 3 of 3 - 7 (Parker, McCoughtry, Charles, Nneka, EED, Stewie, Wilson)
Led 2 of 3 - 5 (Johnson, Augustus, Moore, Chiney, Gray)
Led 1 of 3 - 2 (Herrington, Loyd)

View attachment 46153

2007
ROY = Herrington

PER 15.5 Herrington
WS 2.4 Spencer
PPG 11.7 Harding

2015
ROY = Loyd

PER 19 Boyd
WS 3.7 Stokes
PPG 10.7 Loyd

2019
ROY = TBC

PER 22.8 McCowan
WS 4.8 Collier
PPG 18.5 Ogunbowale

PER?

 

[mbr33ct]

 

[maccca3232]

PER?

PER = Player Efficiency Rating

2019 WNBA PER from Basketball Reference.
Definition from wiki.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

AO with 30 points on Friday against the Mystics while playing nearly the entire game and still shooting in the dying seconds. Freedom as I said before.

Dallas was down 18 at the half.

 

[azfan]

Get a recap of the Dallas Wings vs. Washington Mystics basketball game. Dallas vs. Washington - Game Recap - September 6, 2019 - ESPN
via @ESPN App http://espn.com/app

AO ties the record for most consecutive 30-plus games by a rookie. She now shares
The record with Maya.

McCowan leads the Fever to a victory with another Double-Double.

 

[Plebe]

 

[bballnut90]

Final Numbers for the 3 Rookies:
Teaira McCowan: 10 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 51.7% FG, team went 13-21.
Post All Star averaged 14.9ppg, 10.5 rpg, and shot 53.4% from the floor.

Arike Ogunbowale: 19.1 ppg, 38.8% FG, 35.2% 3pt, 3.2 assists, team went 10-24.
Post All Star averaged 25.0 ppg on 44.0% shooting, 44.3% from 3, and 4.2 assists per game.

Napheesa Collier: 13.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.9 steals, 49.0% FG, team went 18-16
Post All Star averaged: 15.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.0 assists, 2.0 steals and shot 54.1% from the floor

Whoever of the 3 wins the award this year 100% deserves it. Bright futures ahead for all 3.

 

[Plebe]

Final Numbers for the 3 Rookies:
Teaira McCowan: 10 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 51.7% FG, team went 13-21.
Post All Star averaged 14.9ppg, 10.5 rpg, and shot 53.4% from the floor.

Arike Ogunbowale: 19.1 ppg, 38.8% FG, 35.2% 3pt, 3.2 assists, team went 10-24.
Post All Star averaged 25.0 ppg on 44.0% shooting, 44.3% from 3, and 4.2 assists per game.

Napheesa Collier: 13.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.9 steals, 49.0% FG, team went 18-16
Post All Star averaged: 15.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.0 assists, 2.0 steals and shot 54.1% from the floor

Whoever of the 3 wins the award this year 100% deserves it. Bright futures ahead for all 3.

All partisanship aside, tremendous rookie campaigns for all three. I haven't always followed the league closely, but I don't remember another season where the rookies as a whole were this impactful.

 

[bballnut90]

All partisanship aside, tremendous rookie campaigns for all three. I haven't always followed the league closely, but I don't remember another season where the rookies as a whole were this impactful.

Last year's class was better than this one:
A'ja Wilson-20.7 ppg, 8 rpg, 1.6 blocks
Kelsey Mitchell-12.7 ppg, although 34.6% FG
Diamond Deshields-14.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.2 apg, 42.5% FG
Ariel Atkins-11.3 ppg, 43.2% FG
Gabby Williams-7.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.6 spg
Azura Stevens-8.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 43% FG
Victoria Vivians-8.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 40% 3pt
Kia Nurse-9.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg

Plus it had players like Canada, Russell, Brown, and Vadeeva who've been significantly better in their 2nd year.

2018 and 2019 were 2 of the deepest drafts we've had in a while, but we'll likely get a big dropoff with 2020 and 2021 looking pretty grim IMO. Lots of time for players to improve though and elevate draft stock.

 

[mbr33ct]

Final Numbers for the 3 Rookies:
Teaira McCowan: 10 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 51.7% FG, team went 13-21.
Post All Star averaged 14.9ppg, 10.5 rpg, and shot 53.4% from the floor.

Arike Ogunbowale: 19.1 ppg, 38.8% FG, 35.2% 3pt, 3.2 assists, team went 10-24.
Post All Star averaged 25.0 ppg on 44.0% shooting, 44.3% from 3, and 4.2 assists per game.

Napheesa Collier: 13.1 ppg, 6.6 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.9 steals, 49.0% FG, team went 18-16
Post All Star averaged: 15.7 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 3.0 assists, 2.0 steals and shot 54.1% from the floor

Whoever of the 3 wins the award this year 100% deserves it. Bright futures ahead for all 3.

You can slice and dice all the other stats, but one cannot argue with the team win-losses. Of the the three rookies, one will be playing in the playoffs.

 

[baggerbob]

Last year's class was better than this one:
A'ja Wilson-20.7 ppg, 8 rpg, 1.6 blocks
Kelsey Mitchell-12.7 ppg, although 34.6% FG
Diamond Deshields-14.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.2 apg, 42.5% FG
Ariel Atkins-11.3 ppg, 43.2% FG
Gabby Williams-7.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.6 spg
Azura Stevens-8.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 43% FG
Victoria Vivians-8.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 40% 3pt
Kia Nurse-9.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg

Plus it had players like Canada, Russell, Brown, and Vadeeva who've been significantly better in their 2nd year.

2018 and 2019 were 2 of the deepest drafts we've had in a while, but we'll likely get a big dropoff with 2020 and 2021 looking pretty grim IMO. Lots of time for players to improve though and elevate draft stock.

Seattle already has a good rookie for next year, Ezi Magbegor who they drafted last year, and knew she was coming this year. She has Lauren Jackson as her mentor.

 

[bballnut90]

You can slice and dice all the other stats, but one cannot argue with the team win-losses. Of the the three rookies, one will be playing in the playoffs.

None of those stats are "sliced and diced", they give a clear picture of how the players have done statistically and highlight how well all 3 have played to finish the year. And there is almost zero correlation historically between ROY and team success.

 

[mbr33ct]

None of those stats are "sliced and diced", they give a clear picture of how the players have done statistically and highlight how well all 3 have played to finish the year. And there is almost zero correlation historically between ROY and team success.

Was there another year(s) where there were two/three strong ROY candidates, as this year? Let me just say this, IF Collier does win the ROY, should we chalk it up to "team success"?

 

[bballnut90]

Was there another year(s) where there were two/three strong ROY candidates, as this year? Let me just say this, IF Collier does win the ROY, should we chalk it up to "team success"?

Not where the race was as close.

And no, as I stated above, if Collier wins it is because she deserves it. Same with Arike.

 

[azfan]

Last year's class was better than this one:
A'ja Wilson-20.7 ppg, 8 rpg, 1.6 blocks
Kelsey Mitchell-12.7 ppg, although 34.6% FG
Diamond Deshields-14.4 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 2.2 apg, 42.5% FG
Ariel Atkins-11.3 ppg, 43.2% FG
Gabby Williams-7.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.6 spg
Azura Stevens-8.9 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 43% FG
Victoria Vivians-8.9 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 40% 3pt
Kia Nurse-9.1 ppg, 2.4 rpg

Plus it had players like Canada, Russell, Brown, and Vadeeva who've been significantly better in their 2nd year.

2018 and 2019 were 2 of the deepest drafts we've had in a while, but we'll likely get a big dropoff with 2020 and 2021 looking pretty grim IMO. Lots of time for players to improve though and elevate draft stock.

I have speculated on this thread that this is a class with thrEvery close talented rookies at the top. This post indicates a deep class with a number of talented rookies. However Wilson was clearly the cream of the crop and the consensus for Rookie of the Year. This year the top three rookies are much closer. The Deep class last year had clear separation between Wilson and the rest of the talented class. This year the top three rookies are much closer in performance in my view. That said this year is very close Rookie of the Year race makes for great discussion and excitement.

 

[bballnut90]

I have speculated on this thread that this is a class with thrEvery close talented rookies at the top. This post indicates a deep class with a number of talented rookies. However Wilson was clearly the cream of the crop and the consensus for Rookie of the Year. This year the top three rookies are much closer. The Deep class last year had clear separation between Wilson and the rest of the talented class. This year the top three rookies are much closer in performance in my view. That said this year is very close Rookie of the Year race makes for great discussion and excitement.

Agreed, I was just responding to @Plebe's comment about the rookie class being impactful.

 

[tazmaz]

Indiana looks like they made the right pick for them with McCowen’s development. It was her or Kalani Brown #7, if they had to have a post. Well done.