WNBA -- 2023 Season

[Tangential]

Following up on @bbsamjj : that article is Richard Cohen's third installment on the WNBA season in "herhoopstats." I've posted links on the first two and will continue to do so throughout the season. I highly recommend that all perusers of this WNBA thread open it up and read his insights. In addition to his thoughts on the Fever (which @cancontent and @hoopsnloops32 could find interesting ), he does a great job on:

• explaining the myriad of WNBA rules that have led to seemingly "WTF?" moves in Los Angeles and Atlanta, and may be coming in Chicago, as well.
• Money in ownership. Valuation. This also factored in the discussion on franchise stability.
• Clips of Marine Johannes passing. Always worth it.

Enjoy!

WNBA Dissected 2023 Week 3: Moves explained, Marine exalted, money's exciting and more

From roster machinations to no-look passes, a jump around important and interesting topics in the WNBA this week

herhoopstats.substack.com

Informative article -- once again, appreciated @ochoopsfan knowledgeable post that allayed our trepidations making it inevitable that Samuelson would be signed the next day.

Regarding the Fever (PSA: they waived Határ yesterday), there have been many cogent points made and I am in agreement with most (using the eye-test, they are vastly improved, part of the steps to go from a doormat to a contender is losing many winnable games with questionable strategy/execution, Mitchell needs to distribute more, especially with the most talented frontcourt she has had, etc.) However, there is one on which I am clearly in the minority -- "tanking." Like Kah & Dawn, I am a kid from Norfilly, and I have seen this movie before (The Process).

Looking at it from a probability perspective: #1 even if they try to lose, there are many other bad teams (Storm, Lynx, Mercury, etc.) that will also lose a lot (whether by design or not); #2 even if they achieve the worst 2-year aggregate record, that does not ensure that their ping pong ball will result in the 1st or 2nd overall pick; #3 as a few posters have mentioned, there is no guarantee that Clark, Bueckers, Reese, etc. will declare for the '24 draft; & #4 there is no guarantee that these players will become franchise-changing superstars (eg., Paige might be plagued by injuries enough to not be at the highest plateau, Angel might not be as dominant against WNBA 4's). When there are 4 non-correlated events that each have an 85% chance of occurring; there is a 52% (basically a coin flip) chance that all will happen.

More importantly, I am an adherent to Herm Edwards' famous quote: "You play to win the game." I wouldn't be thrilled if they made moves to enable them to lose more games, but it would be far worse if the players and/or coaches contributed to this. I know that there are no such accusations, but any talk of the Fever should be happy to finish 9th or 10th because they would lose 2 straight opening-round playoff games anyway, sickens me. I know that having 3 straight #1 overalls is paying dividends for the Aces, but Coach Laimbeer (ironically, he probably achieved more with less than any coach in the league with the Shock and couldn't get the uber-talented Aces across the finish line -- a big reason was his inability to properly utilize Plum & Young) wasn't able to reap the fruits of the suffering.

 

[Dillon77]

Laura Fay of "herhoopsstats" examines how the Chicago Sky and Seattle Storm chose to address the glaring holes in their rosters in the offseason. While acknowledging the Stewie and Parker departures, the focus of this article is on point guards and the effects on ASR (assist rate). While not declaring anything permanent at this point, she thinks Chicago's guards (Mabrey, Williams, Evans) have kept the rock moving in a pretty positive manner. Granted, Seattle has two rookies involved (Ivana Dojkic, Jade Melbourne), who will hopefully get better. Still, an interesting read.

The Storm and Sky Lost Key Pieces this Offseason. What’s Making their 2023 Seasons so Different?

Seattle and Chicago approached losing their star point guards in dramatically different ways.

herhoopstats.substack.com

 

[Tangential]

They signed Taylor Mikesell

I consider her a shooting guard. They acquired her when they waived Cubaj.

 

[Geew1992]

I consider her a shooting guard. They acquired her when they waived Cubaj.

That’s the only addition so far

 

[Tangential]

Looks like the Aces conceded this one, quite a bit more minutes than normal for the bench. Is it time to send out a search party for Parker? She hasn't come even close to getting on track for them so far.

edit--oops, now I see the comment above about starters getting benched

I have had her back the last couple years. I thought that most (I am aware of many UCONN fans feelings about her) underestimated her role in the '21 Championship run and even though she had a few games that were clunkers last year, she was still very productive overall in my opinion.

However, this year she looks like just another player, at best. Occasionally, you can see her chemistry with Gray, but for the most part, her game doesn't remotely resemble her illustrious career. It appears she has fallen off the cliff more significantly than Sue, DT, Sylvia, etc. at a younger or similar age. Maybe she's injured, pacing herself, will eventually become more integrated and useful, but as of now, the Aces look more imposing with Clark on the floor with the 4 superstars.

 

[Waquoit]

That's a nice win for The Sun. Good for them.

 

[Tangential]

Laura Fay of "herhoopsstats" examines how the Chicago Sky and Seattle Storm chose to address the glaring holes in their rosters in the offseason. While acknowledging the Stewie and Parker departures, the focus of this article is on point guards and the effects on ASR (assist rate). While not declaring anything permanent at this point, she thinks Chicago's guards (Mabrey, Williams, Evans) have kept the rock moving in a pretty positive manner. Granted, Seattle has two rookies involved (Ivana Dojkic, Jade Melbourne), who will hopefully get better. Still, an interesting read.

The Storm and Sky Lost Key Pieces this Offseason. What’s Making their 2023 Seasons so Different?

Seattle and Chicago approached losing their star point guards in dramatically different ways.

herhoopstats.substack.com

Idk about how crucial (as Fay put it) ASR is. LV was 8th last year (behind MN) and are 9th so far this season (behind MN & Atl). It is a feel good stat that many college and pro coaches use for a single game while looking at the stat sheet during the post-game presser ("Wow, we assisted on 22 of our 29 makes. That's the kind of basketball that we need to play"). But if you have a team that has multiple players that are able to create their own shots, such as all 4 of the Aces stars, it isn't as important. Dallas has been at or near the bottom the last 5 or so years (mostly because Ogunbowale is a creator), but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

 

[wbbhoops278]

Idk about how crucial (as Fay put it) ASR is. LV was 8th last year (behind MN) and are 9th so far this season (behind MN & Atl). It is a feel good stat that many college and pro coaches use for a single game while looking at the stat sheet during the post-game presser ("Wow, we assisted on 22 of our 29 makes. That's the kind of basketball that we need to play"). But if you have a team that has multiple players that are able to create their own shots, such as all 4 of the Aces stars, it isn't as important. Dallas has been at or near the bottom the last 5 or so years (mostly because Ogunbowale is a creator), but that's not necessarily a bad thing

No stat means anything without context, but if you look at LV - I don't know anyone who would argue that they don't have the most elite offense in the league. It doesn't hurt them because they actually run an offense.

Ogunbowale (which btw I have no ill feelings about like some people here) hurts her team because she's not missing shots in the flow of the offense, she is taking over (and stagnating) the offense and not making shots. I mean you can just watch the games and see. I'd love to know what she shoots when taking shots in the flow of the offense v. when she tries to go 1v1 all the time. Is she talented? No doubt. When you shoot less than 40% from the floor for your career though (and this year she's only at 35% and 26% on 3s), taking 21 shots a game this year (almost 30% of the team shots), your team is winning despite you, not because of you. I feel the same way about DT (my fave player btw) the way she plays now - she is a better passer but definitely way more of a defensive liability. I love her but I'm over watching her just jack up 10 3s a game - not even all good ones.

 

[Tangential]

 

[Dillon77]

Idk about how crucial (as Fay put it) ASR is. LV was 8th last year (behind MN) and are 9th so far this season (behind MN & Atl). It is a feel good stat that many college and pro coaches use for a single game while looking at the stat sheet during the post-game presser ("Wow, we assisted on 22 of our 29 makes. That's the kind of basketball that we need to play"). But if you have a team that has multiple players that are able to create their own shots, such as all 4 of the Aces stars, it isn't as important. Dallas has been at or near the bottom the last 5 or so years (mostly because Ogunbowale is a creator), but that's not necessarily a bad thing.

I'll take the bait and push back a little.

When teams have multiple "creators/one-on-one specialists/ISO sets & directives for said player," then, yes, the ASR stats are not going to be as notable/reflective for some squads. You've noted two such teams:

• Las Vegas with Wilson, Young, Gray, Plum
• Dallas, which wasn't just Arike, but also Mabrey and Grey. I'd say Arike was augmented by Mabrey and Grey's abilities -- people couldn't double her as easily -- but that's not the case this year, with only Sabally able to create on her own consistently.

However, I'd also note that said creators often get the ball in situations that maximize their shot-creation skills. Those situations can be a direct result of precise ball movement, as well as other set-ups (hello, high ball screens.)

College coaches who have one or two ISO kings/queens get excited when their catch-and-shoot players or cutters-to-the-basket get passes to make their kinds of shots. Hence, the stat sheet exulations. And there are more of those combo teams than the Las Vegas Aces of the world.

If teams with varying talent sit around watching the one or two creators, you'll see slides and doubles from the defense. One sees this in hoops, for sure, but also in sports like lacrosse, which I played in high school and a few years in college. Good teams will make a defense pay for ball watching, but the offense has to be willing and able to make the dish, right?

In the case of Seattle, Jewell Loyd can create (and distribute), but outside of Ezi, who else? Chicago's gifted to have Mabrey, Copper and C. Williams, two of whom can also create for others and run a half-court set for the E. Williams and K. Smiths.

At a collegiate level, N. Ivey depends a lot of both ISO situations and catch-and-shoots off those ISO's, which is why the loss of Olivia Miles (the creator) and Dara Mabey (the catch-and-shoot beneficiary) was such a challenge. A player like Sonia Citron was forced to do waaay too much of everything. (On a pro level, you might see a Jewell Loyd wear down if others don't step up.)

 

[nwhoopfan]

No stat means anything without context, but if you look at LV - I don't know anyone who would argue that they don't have the most elite offense in the league. It doesn't hurt them because they actually run an offense.

Ogunbowale (which btw I have no ill feelings about like some people here) hurts her team because she's not missing shots in the flow of the offense, she is taking over (and stagnating) the offense and not making shots. I mean you can just watch the games and see. I'd love to know what she shoots when taking shots in the flow of the offense v. when she tries to go 1v1 all the time. Is she talented? No doubt. When you shoot less than 40% from the floor for your career though (and this year she's only at 35% and 26% on 3s), taking 21 shots a game this year (almost 30% of the team shots), your team is winning despite you, not because of you. I feel the same way about DT (my fave player btw) the way she plays now - she is a better passer but definitely way more of a defensive liability. I love her but I'm over watching her just jack up 10 3s a game - not even all good ones.

When there was a rash of K. Mitchell bashing going on yesterday, I looked at some stats. I couldn't help but notice that Ogunbowale is taking 6 more shots per game than Mitchell this year, and about 3.5 more for their careers.

 

[Dillon77]

Good signing for the Sky. Soule will fit in perfectly with the aggressive mentality of this team. I was thinking Engstler or Soule for this team and, voila.

 

[bballnut90]

I have had her back the last couple years. I thought that most (I am aware of many UCONN fans feelings about her) underestimated her role in the '21 Championship run and even though she had a few games that were clunkers last year, she was still very productive overall in my opinion.

However, this year she looks like just another player, at best. Occasionally, you can see her chemistry with Gray, but for the most part, her game doesn't remotely resemble her illustrious career. It appears she has fallen off the cliff more significantly than Sue, DT, Sylvia, etc. at a younger or similar age. Maybe she's injured, pacing herself, will eventually become more integrated and useful, but as of now, the Aces look more imposing with Clark on the floor with the 4 superstars.

Agreed. She was still great the last 2 years (1st Team All-WNBA a year ago) but hasn't found her footing yet in Vegas. I'm not sure if it's player decline, lack of chemistry with new teammates, or her taking a backseat to not disrupt chemistry from an already winning team. It's still early in the year. If it's player decline, it's a steep drop from where she was a year ago, but she is 37 and I believe the 2nd oldest player in the league after DT. My guess is it's a combination of all 3 factors though. Even with little productivity, Vegas is 7-1 and #1 in the league, so I don't see her lack of production as a negative for the team. Parker is one who doesn't mind taking a backseat to others, so at the end of the day if they're winning and she's filling her role for them, I see it as a win-win.

 

[azfan]

I feel the same way about DT (my fave player btw) the way she plays now - she is a better passer but definitely way more of a defensive liability. I love her but I'm over watching her just jack up 10 3s a game - not even all good ones.

You hit it on the head. Like you DT is my fav, but I really wish she had retired.

Her age prevents her from playing effective D and she has devolved into a low efficiency offensive player.

That said like Brady, when you are the GOAT you get to decide when to leave.

 

[azfan]

When there was a rash of K. Mitchell bashing going on yesterday, I looked at some stats. I couldn't help but notice that Ogunbowale is taking 6 more shots per game than Mitchell this year, and about 3.5 more for their careers.

Two gunners without a conscience. K is only trailing Arike due to lack of opportunity. On a per minute basis I would guess they jack'em at the same rate, and miss at a similar rate, and win (lose) at a similar rate.

 

[Tangential]

Agreed. She was still great the last 2 years (1st Team All-WNBA a year ago) but hasn't found her footing yet in Vegas. I'm not sure if it's player decline, lack of chemistry with new teammates, or her taking a backseat to not disrupt chemistry from an already winning team. It's still early in the year. If it's player decline, it's a steep drop from where she was a year ago, but she is 37 and I believe the 2nd oldest player in the league after DT. My guess is it's a combination of all 3 factors though. Even with little productivity, Vegas is 7-1 and #1 in the league, so I don't see her lack of production as a negative for the team. Parker is one who doesn't mind taking a backseat to others, so at the end of the day if they're winning and she's filling her role for them, I see it as a win-win.

I would agree that she is willing to take a backseat in order to not disrupt chemistry based on her high basketball IQ (& smart enough to know that you don't rock the boat of the defending champs).

However, I think that their 7 wins are a testament to their other players and coaches (their 1 loss is a testament to their achilles heel from last year -- the 3 guards being careless with the ball -- and good 'ole DB showing that she can still go off in any given game). If production doesn't improve (I strongly tend to think that it will), she might lose a lot of minutes to Clark/Stokes come play-off time vs. teams like NY, CT, & Wash.

 

[ochoopsfan]

Hard to put titles to colums. They are GP and FGA

1​	ARIKE OGUNBOWALE​	DAL​	7​	​	​	148​
2​	DEWANNA BONNER​	CON​	9​	​	​	131​
2​	KAHLEAH COPPER​	CHI​	8​	​	​	131​
4​	SATOU SABALLY​	DAL​	7​	​	​	111​
5​	JEWELL LOYD​	SEA​	5​	​	​	110​
6​	KELSEY PLUM​	LVA​	8​	​	​	109​
7​	A'JA WILSON​	LVA​	8​	​	​	105​
7​	NATASHA HOWARD​	DAL​	7​	​	​	105​
9​	ALYSSA THOMAS​	CON​	9​	​	​	99​
9​	NAPHEESA COLLIER​	MIN​	7​	​	​	99​
11​	JACKIE YOUNG​	LVA​	8​	​	​	98​
12​	MARINA MABREY​	CHI​	7​	​	​	95​
13​	BREANNA STEWART​	NYL​	6​	​	​	91​
13​	NATISHA HIEDEMAN​	CON​	9​	​	​	91​
15​	BRIONNA JONES​	CON​	9​	​	​	90​

 

[nwhoopfan]

Parker is only playing 22 min/game, Clark 21, Stokes 19.5. She's already basically platooning w/ other players. If she loses any more minutes she'll be almost a token starter at that point. I'm not sure exactly what she brings currently that the Aces need. She isn't scoring much. If you want a player who doesn't need the ball and doesn't need to score, but will defend and grab rebounds, Stokes is better in that regard. Parker just isn't going to be a hustle/high energy player. They don't need her for playmaking w/ Gray being one of the best in the league, and Plum, Young and Wilson all being willing passers. With the way she's shooting she isn't stretching the defense. Just don't see what she's bringing, other than reputation.

She may have been the missing piece to help Chicago win a Championship, but the Aces already showed they could do it without her. If anything it looks more like she's trying to ride the coattails of others to one more Title before she calls it a career.

 

[nwhoopfan]

Hard to put titles to colums. They are GP and FGA

1​	ARIKE OGUNBOWALE​	DAL​	7​	​	​	148​
2​	DEWANNA BONNER​	CON​	9​	​	​	131​
2​	KAHLEAH COPPER​	CHI​	8​	​	​	131​
4​	SATOU SABALLY​	DAL​	7​	​	​	111​
5​	JEWELL LOYD​	SEA​	5​	​	​	110​
6​	KELSEY PLUM​	LVA​	8​	​	​	109​
7​	A'JA WILSON​	LVA​	8​	​	​	105​
7​	NATASHA HOWARD​	DAL​	7​	​	​	105​
9​	ALYSSA THOMAS​	CON​	9​	​	​	99​
9​	NAPHEESA COLLIER​	MIN​	7​	​	​	99​
11​	JACKIE YOUNG​	LVA​	8​	​	​	98​
12​	MARINA MABREY​	CHI​	7​	​	​	95​
13​	BREANNA STEWART​	NYL​	6​	​	​	91​
13​	NATISHA HIEDEMAN​	CON​	9​	​	​	91​
15​	BRIONNA JONES​	CON​	9​	​	​	90​

So...Notre Dame alums like to shoot the ball?

 

[GamecockFam]

I cleared out my schedule to watch Boston play at 8 and I just realized there are three games on ION at the same time, so my assumption is that it will be regional coverage. I went to check which game was playing in my area and it's the Mercury/Wings game and not the Fever/Lynx. I have zero interest in that game. Anyone know how I could remedy this issue without a VPN? Is there somewhere online that I can choose which ION game I want to watch?

 

[Dillon77]

So...Notre Dame alums like to shoot the ball?

I did when I was younger and still something of a slasher! But I don't think you're talking about this Sunday Morning Hoopster! (at best I'm like the Jess Shepard of the old man set!)

And I've noted the emoji (but will point out your favorite U of Wash alum is leading the Aces in shots taken and is all of one shot behind Ms. Loyd..)

However, I will say that -- at this point -- the ND folks on this chart are either: being what they are, shooting because they feel they have to and/or are encouraged to.

Being What They Are/Have To
- Arike has been a high-volume shooter since she was tossing binkies from her crib. She was the leading shooter/scorer on an ND national championship team in which all the other starters are now playing pro ball.
This can probably get under the skin of other players (I'm certain Allisha Grey wanted out to see the ball a bit more.) But, what else is new?
- Jewell was a prolific scorer in high school and was ready to go off at ND when the situation dictated. She didn't need to score/shoot that much when Sue, Stewie and the great Storm were around. But, now, as I've pointed out, she needs to score for this iteration of the Storm. Who else is going to step up?

To some degree, you can make the same points about Arike and Satou Sabally. Diamond DeShields? Out. Big T? Out. Howard? Her touches are probably taken more by Sabally than Arike. But Dallas got rid of Arike's mates in Grey and Mabrey and now there's no one in the Dallas backcourt that keeps her from being, well, Arike.

That's the Deal

- As pointed out by @Tangential , four Aces -- Plum, Wilson, Young and Gray -- can all create and score. They were drafted/traded in part to do just that. Young is probably being moderate in her approach. If she was on a team that needed scoring, she could probably drop 25-27 per night and most people wouldn't notice the increase in shots: she's just that efficient.

- And Marina Mabrey is doing exactly what James Wade traded for: being part of very aggressive combo guard pair (with Courtney Williams) to sync up with Ms. Copper, who is still Chicago's #1 option.
When Mabrey offered to take over lead guard duties at ND in late 2017, it was one of those moves that helped the team in the short term and helped her round out her skill set. I'd also argue it set her back a bit because she is still, at heart, a scorer at all three levels. She's worked hard in the WNBA and overseas at her individual craft while helping teams to championship/Final Four rounds (Perth, Familia Schio).

Imagine if Skylar was playing this year? I could extend this post by a paragraph and you could use "roll eyes" emoji!

Question: is Jewell locked into Seattle beyond this year? Or is she free to look around?

 

[GamecockFam]

I cleared out my schedule to watch Boston play at 8 and I just realized there are three games on ION at the same time, so my assumption is that it will be regional coverage. I went to check which game was playing in my area and it's the Mercury/Wings game and not the Fever/Lynx. I have zero interest in that game. Anyone know how I could remedy this issue without a VPN? Is there somewhere online that I can choose which ION game I want to watch?

I figured out that I can watch it with the League pass. $24.99 seems reasonable but it's annoying that I have to shell out more money to watch a game when I already have cable. I hate getting nickel and dimed.

 

[Kaizen]

Hard to put titles to colums. They are GP and FGA

1​	ARIKE OGUNBOWALE​	DAL​	7​	​	​	148​
2​	DEWANNA BONNER​	CON​	9​	​	​	131​
2​	KAHLEAH COPPER​	CHI​	8​	​	​	131​
4​	SATOU SABALLY​	DAL​	7​	​	​	111​
5​	JEWELL LOYD​	SEA​	5​	​	​	110​
6​	KELSEY PLUM​	LVA​	8​	​	​	109​
7​	A'JA WILSON​	LVA​	8​	​	​	105​
7​	NATASHA HOWARD​	DAL​	7​	​	​	105​
9​	ALYSSA THOMAS​	CON​	9​	​	​	99​
9​	NAPHEESA COLLIER​	MIN​	7​	​	​	99​
11​	JACKIE YOUNG​	LVA​	8​	​	​	98​
12​	MARINA MABREY​	CHI​	7​	​	​	95​
13​	BREANNA STEWART​	NYL​	6​	​	​	91​
13​	NATISHA HIEDEMAN​	CON​	9​	​	​	91​
15​	BRIONNA JONES​	CON​	9​	​	​	90​

What is GP and FGA?

 

[Reypl21]

What is GP and FGA?

GP= Games Played and FGA= Field Goals attempted.

I'm an ND fan, and obviously support the W players. But Arike shoots too damn much. Her highlights are spectacular but when you watch the game in real time it's mind boggling the shots she takes.

 

[nwhoopfan]

And I've noted the emoji (but will point out your favorite U of Wash alum is leading the Aces in shots taken and is all of one shot behind Ms. Loyd..)

In 3 more games one should note. Shots per game is not remotely close comparing the two.