Way too early bracketology now has Oregon State #1

[Figurehead]

Ha. Pick any 4 of Alabama, Clemson, LSU, Georgia, Ohio St., Oklahoma...am I missing anybody? Pretty much the same every year.

Bama, 90% of the country enjoyed Saturday. tee hee!

 

[Gamecockfan77]

This would just frustrate me to talk about.

The only seeding that matters is the last one.

 

[Alydar]

I normally like Creme but his claims don't even match the metrics. Massey has the Beavers with the 31st best SOS, which is worse than Louisville, UConn, Baylor, Oregon, Stanford, Mississippi St, and South Carolina (i.e., all the teams he ranks ahead of them primarily on the basis of playing a tougher schedule). The Beavers have also at times looked just as bad as any of those teams in their low moments, if not worse, and against trifling opposition. So I truly don't get it.

As of now (i.e., with Carrington and Dodson out for Stanford and Cox out for Baylor), I'd lean toward something like Louisville, UConn, Stanford (with any of those three arguable #1s), then Oregon State, Oregon, South Carolina, Baylor, Mississippi St., Texas A&M, and then a huge cliff before Maryland. With Carrington, Dodson, and Cox back in the lineups, I'd move Stanford to #1 and Baylor to #4 behind UConn.

Yes, UConn hasn't played anyone amazing yet, but Geno has earned the benefit of the doubt in a way I won't give Rueck until I see Oregon State beat an elite team. I really like Oregon State, and they have the pieces to make a final four run if things break right, but put it this way: if someone forced me to put $100 on a game held today between UConn and Oregon State on a neutral court, there's no way I'd put my money on the Beavs.

Massey factors in last season until teams play 10 games.

I've read OSU's obit during the preseason for several years, going back first to when Hamblin graduated, Weise graduated and then when Wiesner graduated. Rueck hasn't had the marquee players of most elite teams but his teams compete and they don't go away.

 

[Alydar]

Creme Sunday at noon:

8. Texas A&M Aggies (5-0, Portland-2): The Aggies are built around Chennedy Carter and will need her to perform every night. The schedule has presented some challenges so far, and the early SEC schedule is favorable, so A&M should be holding down a spot on the No. 2 seed line for a while.

Sorry Charlie. You do a great job with your top 16 seeds after the committee tells you who they are. Stick to that.

 

[bennyskid]

That's an insult to Vic Schaefer and the loyalists down in Mississippi, sir! (more to the point, your RPI data is pretty critically inaccurate.)

Sorry. I was using RealTimeRPI and that game didn't show up in Stanford's list. But even with that game, by RPI, OSU has much the better schedule.

Also: Baylor's RPI rank at the moment is 124th! If you think this statistic is at present a useful metric for measuring top teams, there's probably no further point in having a debate...

Again, where in this thread has anyone said that RPI was a "useful metric for measuring top teams"? I didn't. Charlie Creme didn't. No one, Charlie Creme included, has posted anything to the effect that OSU is the best team in the country, or that Baylor is worse than 100-plus teams. If you can't understand what Charlie Creme is predicting with his Bracketology, then "there's probably no further point in having a debate..."

 

[newfrontier]

Even the Oregonian website has bit on this "silly" bracketology story Shameful!

Oregon State, not Oregon, currently the No. 1 overall women’s basketball seed, says ESPN bracketologist

The Beavers won two games last week while many others in the top 10, including the Ducks, lost holiday games

www.oregonlive.com

Side note: Michelle Smith of ncaa.com now has Oregon State No. 2 in the power rankings, behind No. 1 Stanford. How dare she make such a list this early in the season.

Women's basketball rankings: Stanford rises to No. 1 in Power 10 after a weekend of shakeups

The shakeup in this week's Power 10 rankings has come. The Thanksgiving week provided some very informative matchups, including three Top 10 matchups on Saturday alone. And the upsets were aplenty.

www.ncaa.com

 

[bennyskid]

Uh, a correctly calculated RPI shows OSU is #1 and Stanford is #2, and #1 vs. #9 by SOS. Define "the much better schedule."

Even with the updated rankings (and, of course, we shouldn't be judging yesterday's column by today's stats), OSU has wins over RPI #3, #8, and #16. Stanford has #7 and #12. At the next level, OSU has #43, Stanford has #50.

 

[TheFarmFan]

The new RPI makes things more even, though OSU still has the better resume. But at the time Creme wrote the article, OSU had three top-25 wins, including over #2, and Stanford had only one.

Sure, cause Creme wrote his post before the tournament weekend had finished and while Stanford's win against MSU hadn't yet been factored in and while Gonzaga still had a game to play. That's a bit like predicting the NCAA seeding while several conferences have yet to play their title games. And I don't think Stanford should be no. 1 either - as of now, I think Louisville's earned that honor - they have the best win, a solid schedule, and no close wins. I very much doubt they'll be no. 1 in March, but I'm even more confident OSU won't be either.

 

[Justawbbfan]

I'm just wondering why Realtime RPI has Louisville with a 7-1 record. Am I missing something?

 

[domerduck]

For inexplicable reasons, it has Louisville losing to Oklahoma State by 21 rather than winning. Given the errors with that site, I'd encourage all of us to rely on WarrenNolan to the degree we want to use RPI at all.

I did like the accuracy of your site (so thanks for sharing), but what I like about "Real Time RPI" is the ability to show relative conference rpi where currently the PAC12 is #1 at .6051, over a point higher (really .01) than #2 Big Ten (.5923), and over 3 points higher (.03) than #3 Missour Valley Conference (.5739) and #4 (.5708). Couldn't see how to do that on WarranNolan.

 

[domerduck]

Even the Oregonian website has bit on this "silly" bracketology story Shameful!

Oregon State, not Oregon, currently the No. 1 overall women’s basketball seed, says ESPN bracketologist

The Beavers won two games last week while many others in the top 10, including the Ducks, lost holiday games

www.oregonlive.com

Side note: Michelle Smith of ncaa.com now has Oregon State No. 2 in the power rankings, behind No. 1 Stanford. How dare she make such a list this early in the season.

Women's basketball rankings: Stanford rises to No. 1 in Power 10 after a weekend of shakeups

The shakeup in this week's Power 10 rankings has come. The Thanksgiving week provided some very informative matchups, including three Top 10 matchups on Saturday alone. And the upsets were aplenty.

www.ncaa.com

Considering the Portland regional and the current Cyber Monday sale going on I think the Oregonian's article is relevant and not that silly. When I bought my tix with that sale last week, I wanted to see if my son, who lives in Portland and is an Oregon grad, wanted to come and he did since Oregon was #1.. Still when I told him at the Civil War game that it's possible Oregon State would be there instead of Oregon or even Stanford, he tells me he wouldn't go unless it's the Ducks.

I personally don't care whose there, but I am sure lots of Oregonians have preferences and certainly if Stanford is there with no Oregon school many will try to sell their tix if they bought early. Folks have to be aware it may a crap shoot buying regional tix early.

 

[domerduck]

Sure, but those calculations are fundamentally faulty if they're based on incorrectly boosting the RPI of the Big 12 and incorrectly tarnishing the RPI of the ACC by crediting Oklahoma State with "upsetting" Louisville. Same problem in omitting Stanford's win over Mississippi State. All the metrics in the world aren't worth a darn if they aren't based on real data...

They update a few times a day unless you pay them. They currently have Stanford at #7 with the Miss State win, but they still haven't fixed that L'ville mistake. I've noticed a few similar errors over the years I've used that site, but have found it useful since the NCAA site only updates once a day. The NCAA site is the only site considered by the committee and it hasn't started yet this season. I think it starts Friday.

 

[newfrontier]

new AP rankings:

2023-24 Women's College Basketball Rankings - ESPN

Find the 2023-24 NCAAW rankings on ESPN, including the Coaches and AP poll for the top 25 NCAAW teams.

www.espn.com