I understand people are cautious and Alabama has hit 3s. But, seriously, look at how they've played against any halfway decent team not named UNC (who isn't nearly as well coached as we are). We're going to absolutely maul them.
"Oh, they shoot threes, so that is high variance and that's what we're afraid of."
No, they're undisciplined on offense and especially defense. We're going to run them ragged on the defensive end and demoralize them with layups and dunks. I also expect we'll start hitting 3s at some point.
It's another game we're going to be up 30 at some point.
They are a bad defensive team, no question. They can easily concede 100 points, even if we control the pace. But looking through their results, they played a very tough schedule (KenPom #1 overall SoS, #1 offensive SoS, and #18 defensive SoS).
They had a bad loss to Ohio State, a more understandable loss to Elite 8 team Clemson.
The rest of their non-conference losses:
vs. Purdue, @Creighton, vs. Arizona (back to back to back)
In conference, they were swept by Tennessee, split with Auburn, lost at Kentucky, and lost 2/3 to Florida.
Now, in those losses, they gave up a ____ton of points (they lost 4 of 6 to close the season, and in 3 of those gave up 117(!!), 105, and 102). But those were against tough teams with good offenses.
Their best wins were home vs. Auburn, UNC obviously, and now Clemson. Not a ton of high-quality wins, but in the games where they don't get blown out, they are capable of winning a shootout.
That said, I agree that the modal outcome is we win, probably by a comfortable margin in the second half, something like 90-72. But they can win games in the 90s or higher and have, if they get hot.
