Top 16 reveal (Feb. 29)

[bballnut90]

It would be a shame to have Oregon State not play in Portland Regional. Bottom line, OSU can change that by winning Saturday vs Cal, and then tearing it up in the PAC-12 Tournament.

They'll get placed in Portland barring something strange. I went through regional history going back to 2010 and pulled the top 4 seeded teams each year and identified if they were placed in the nearby home regional (within 3 hours driving time) or if they were shipped elsewhere. Look at the results:

2023: Greenville hosted #1 South Carolina

2022: Bridgeport hosted #2 UCONN, Greensboro hosted #1 South Carolina. NC State was also close to Greensboro but got the boot to Bridgeport because of South Carolina being nearby and earning the #1 overall seed.

2019: Chicago hosted #1 Notre Dame, Albany hosted #2 UCONN, Portland hosted #2 Oregon.

2018: Albany hosted #1 UCONN, Lexington hosted #1 Louisville

2017: Bridgeport hosted #1 UCONN, Lexington hosted #4 Kentucky, Stockton hosted a regional but did not host #2 Stanford (though Stanford isn't known for drawing well)

2016: Bridgeport hosted #1 UCONN, Dallas hosted #1 Baylor and #4 Texas A&M, Lexington hosted #3 Kentucky

2015: Albany hosted #1 UCONN, Greensboro hosted #1 South Carolina and #4 North Carolina

2014: Stanford hosted #2 Stanford, Lincoln hosted #4 Nebraska, Louisville hosted #3 Louisville, Notre Dame hosted #1 Notre Dame

2013: Bridgeport hosted #1 UCONN, Norfolk hosted #2 Duke

2012: Kingston hosted #1 UCONN, Fresno hosted #1 Stanford

2011: Dallas hosted #1 Baylor and #2 Texas A&M, Dayton hosted #4 Ohio State, Philadelphia hosted #4 Maryland

2010: Dayton hosted #2 Ohio State, Memphis hosted #1 Tennessee, Sacramento hosted #1 Stanford

Out of 33 potential hometown teams, 32 times the committee has put the top 4 seeded hometown team in the nearby regional. Even if you exclude all of the #1 seeds, 15 of 16 teams seeded 2-4 were placed in the nearby regional. There isn't another top 16 program within driving distance from Portland, so Oregon State is all but a lock to end up in Portland unless the committee changes their philosophy.

 

[Vowelguy]

They'll get placed in Portland barring something strange.

The something strange is the PAC.

If Stanford and UCla are 1 seeds and Oregonst is the 3rd or 4th pac team, then nearly impossible for OreSt to be sent west.

 

[Vowelguy]

Bt

If iowa wins out, doubtful they move all the way to 2 overall, and certainly not if ucla or Stanford win the pac.

Unlikely to me that UConn moves from 10 to 7 just by beating Creighton again. Would need not just losses but bad losses by teams ahead of them.

Also NCSt and OreSt have potential to leap over UConn with conf tourney titles (unlikely for NCS given how they’ve been trending).

Btw I think UConn is 3 with Syracuse the 6, basically guaranteeing one northeastern team in Albany.

 

[triaddukefan]

Bt

Btw I think UConn is 3 with Syracuse the 6, basically guaranteeing one northeastern team in Albany.

Charlie has Duke as the 6th with UConn at the moment. Syracuse and Duke could meet next Friday here in Greensboro.

 

[bballnut90]

The something strange is the PAC.

If Stanford and UCla are 1 seeds and Oregonst is the 3rd or 4th pac team, then nearly impossible for OreSt to be sent west.

There's going to be 5-6 PAC teams who get top 4 seeds, it'll be impossible to keep all of the top 4 seeded Pac-12 schools in different brackets. The NCAA tries to avoid intraconference matchups until the regional final (bottom of page 3) which isn't a problem if Portland has two #1 Pac 12 seeds and Oregon State as a 3.

https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/files/2022-10/NCAA-DI-womens-basketball-principles-procedures-2023.pdf

 

[ConnMotors]

If iowa wins out, doubtful they move all the way to 2 overall, and certainly not if ucla or Stanford win the pac.

Unlikely to me that UConn moves from 10 to 7 just by beating Creighton again. Would need not just losses but bad losses by teams ahead of them.

Also NCSt and OreSt have potential to leap over UConn with conf tourney titles (unlikely for NCS given how they’ve been trending).

UConn still has the SOS advantage. If that even means anything anymore

 

[triaddukefan]

UConn still has the SOS advantage. If that even means anything anymore

Over which team?

 

[Vowelguy]

There's going to be 5-6 PAC teams who get top 4 seeds, it'll be impossible to keep all of the top 4 seeded Pac-12 schools in different brackets. The NCAA tries to avoid intraconference matchups until the regional final (bottom of page 3) which isn't a problem if Portland has two #1 Pac 12 seeds and Oregon State as a 3.

https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/files/2022-10/NCAA-DI-womens-basketball-principles-procedures-2023.pdf

During the first reveal , the chair said that the first 4 teams (in the top 16) from a conference must be placed in different regions. Thus if UCLA and Stanford are in Portland and OreSt is 3rd/4th PAc, it must be in Albany.

 

[Vowelguy]

UConn still has the SOS advantage. If that even means anything anymore

It is one of 10-20 factors being considered.

 

[Plebe]

There's going to be 5-6 PAC teams who get top 4 seeds, it'll be impossible to keep all of the top 4 seeded Pac-12 schools in different brackets. The NCAA tries to avoid intraconference matchups until the regional final (bottom of page 3) which isn't a problem if Portland has two #1 Pac 12 seeds and Oregon State as a 3.

https://www.ncaa.com/_flysystem/public-s3/files/2022-10/NCAA-DI-womens-basketball-principles-procedures-2023.pdf

The top 4 must go into different brackets if they're in the top 16. Obviously after that they have to double up with someone.

"Each of the first four teams selected from a conference shall be placed in different regional pods if they are seeded on the first four lines."

 

[bballnut90]

During the first reveal , the chair said that the first 4 teams (in the top 16) from a conference must be placed in different regions. Thus if UCLA and Stanford are in Portland and OreSt is 3rd/4th PAc, it must be in Albany.

Got it. My guess is they’ll wind up shuffling one of UCLA/Stanford out to Albany instead to make room for Oregon State in Portland, but time will tell

 

[Vowelguy]

Got it. My guess is they’ll wind up shuffling one of UCLA/Stanford out to Albany instead to make room for Oregon State in Portland, but time will tell

If they are both 1s then unlikely since that would mean sending OhioSt away from Albany. And more likely I’d think if UCLA is a 2 since they’re not close to Portland.

 

[Vowelguy]

Charlie has Duke as the 6th with UConn at the moment. Syracuse and Duke could meet next Friday here in Greensboro.

Casual fans in Albany likely view the Orange as their home team. And Cuse is just over 2 hours away — would be a shame if they made the sweet 16 and had to play in Portland.

 

[triaddukefan]

They'll get placed in Portland barring something strange. I went through regional history going back to 2010 and pulled the top 4 seeded teams each year and identified if they were placed in the nearby home regional (within 3 hours driving time) or if they were shipped elsewhere. Look at the results:

2023: Greenville hosted #1 South Carolina

2022: Bridgeport hosted #2 UCONN, Greensboro hosted #1 South Carolina. NC State was also close to Greensboro but got the boot to Bridgeport because of South Carolina being nearby and earning the #1 overall seed.

2019: Chicago hosted #1 Notre Dame, Albany hosted #2 UCONN, Portland hosted #2 Oregon.

2018: Albany hosted #1 UCONN, Lexington hosted #1 Louisville

2017: Bridgeport hosted #1 UCONN, Lexington hosted #4 Kentucky, Stockton hosted a regional but did not host #2 Stanford (though Stanford isn't known for drawing well)

2016: Bridgeport hosted #1 UCONN, Dallas hosted #1 Baylor and #4 Texas A&M, Lexington hosted #3 Kentucky

2015: Albany hosted #1 UCONN, Greensboro hosted #1 South Carolina and #4 North Carolina

2014: Stanford hosted #2 Stanford, Lincoln hosted #4 Nebraska, Louisville hosted #3 Louisville, Notre Dame hosted #1 Notre Dame

2013: Bridgeport hosted #1 UCONN, Norfolk hosted #2 Duke

2012: Kingston hosted #1 UCONN, Fresno hosted #1 Stanford

2011: Dallas hosted #1 Baylor and #2 Texas A&M, Dayton hosted #4 Ohio State, Philadelphia hosted #4 Maryland

2010: Dayton hosted #2 Ohio State, Memphis hosted #1 Tennessee, Sacramento hosted #1 Stanford

Out of 33 potential hometown teams, 32 times the committee has put the top 4 seeded hometown team in the nearby regional. Even if you exclude all of the #1 seeds, 15 of 16 teams seeded 2-4 were placed in the nearby regional. There isn't another top 16 program within driving distance from Portland, so Oregon State is all but a lock to end up in Portland unless the committee changes their philosophy.

A couple of notes. 2012 Raleigh was a regional host.. Maryland and Duke were both #2 seeds.. the NCAA sent Duke to Fresno, and Maryland to Raleigh. MD lost to ND in the regional final in front of probably 500 fans. No coincidence that was the last time that Raleigh hosted a regional. Similar thing happened in 2009. Duke and Maryland were #1 seeds....... Maryland got Raleigh, and Duke got sent out West.

 

[Plebe]

UConn still has the SOS advantage. If that even means anything anymore

SOS isn’t worth a lot when you got blown out by all the teams that make the schedule strong.

 

[triaddukefan]

SOS isn’t worth a lot when you got blown out by all the teams that make the schedule strong.

 

[CompSci87]

Don't think it works that way. The seeding happens first, then the bracketing. They don't reverse engineer the seeds just to keep one team close to home.

I'm sure that's true in theory. But people often suspect the committee of tweaking things slightly in such ways. Maybe you're right that they would never do such a thing even if it would be beneficial for everyone.

 

[Plebe]

I'm sure that's true in theory. But people often suspect the committee of tweaking things slightly in such ways. Maybe you're right that they would never do such a thing even if it would be beneficial for everyone.

Lol for everyone? Is it also beneficial for the #1 seed who in the sweet 16 would have to play a #4 seed who was supposed to be seeded #3?

“People often suspect” many things that are unprovable and untrue. For example, some folks believe all of humanity is controlled by a race of alien lizards.

Suspicions, like conspiracy theories, are a dime a dozen.

 

[Darwin]

1 South Carolina
2 Ohio St
3 Stanford
4 UCLA
5 Virginia Tech
6 Texas
7 Iowa
8 USC
9 LSU
10 UConn
11 NC St
12 Oregon St
13 Colorado
14 Indiana
15 Gonzaga
16 Oklahoma

UCLA would make out like a bandit in that scenario, easier road than SC.

 

[LETTERL]

A couple of notes. 2012 Raleigh was a regional host.. Maryland and Duke were both #2 seeds.. the NCAA sent Duke to Fresno, and Maryland to Raleigh. MD lost to ND in the regional final in front of probably 500 fans. No coincidence that was the last time that Raleigh hosted a regional. Similar thing happened in 2009. Duke and Maryland were #1 seeds....... Maryland got Raleigh, and Duke got sent out West.

Kellie Harper was in the process of driving NC State into the ground. I'm sure it was expected NC State would be a draw to the Raleigh regional...but it didn't work out.

 

[triaddukefan]

Kellie Harper was in the process of driving NC State into the ground. I'm sure it was expected NC State would be a draw to the Raleigh regional...but it didn't work out.

Duke was top dog back then. Duke got to the Final 4 out of Raleigh in 2002. They thought that it was a good chance that either Duke or Chapel Hill would get sent to that region. State wasn't top 2 seed material for about two decades until Moore got it going. The funniest thing was when Greensboro hosted in 2008... and they sent #1 seed Chapel Hill to play #2 LSU in New Orleans and sent Uconn here instead.

 

[TC22]

The NCAA has made some baffling decisions before for sure.

 

[triaddukefan]

The NCAA has made some baffling decisions before for sure.

 

[bballnut90]

Virginia Tech is likely out of contention for a 1 seed now after back to back losses ending the regular season. My guess right now is they’ll be:
1. SC
2. PAC-12 winner if it’s Stanford, UCLA or USC
3. Iowa or Ohio State if they win the B1G
4. Texas if they win the Big 12. If they don’t, PAC gets a second bid.