OT: Stock Market

[sledog]

Buy hi, sell low. aah, wait, ...

 

[Ricker]

As an afterthought consistent with helping you. I should have said I have been in the business since 1974 and have had contact with hundreds of brokers as co workers and people I supervised. Some of them had hot streaks of a couple years and maybe bought a pretty amenity with profits, but by and large active trading will not be successful. Contrast that with the number of accounts over $1,000,000 in 401k's and IRA's where people only invested a few hundred dollars at a time, but systematically averaged their cost into the market over many years. I can't point to any failures as long as the saver didn't bail in big down markets but just kept accumulating, (sometimes hard to do in the face of negative press reports day after day for 2-3 years). I have many accounts where total investments of $10000 made over 4-5 years are now $250,000 to $500,000, many many years later. Besides thrift it takes time, (a long time). Obviously uncertain, but this kind of growth happens most of the time as long as a person is diversified in a fund or similar arrangement. If you are an older person, those big results will not happen, but it is still a better path than speculative trading. That 2nd income trading will subtract from the first income.

End of Soap box

 

[Javjudah]

Do some DD on Intrexon, XON in the ticker.

XON

 

[huskyinfl]

r/wallstreetbets

Just start trading options bro. Save 10 bucks for your final investment in $ROPE when you lose it all.

 

[formerlurker]

https://i2./www.dcclothesline.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/money-under-mattress.jpg

 

[huskyinfl]

XON

Giving a ticker doesn't mean anything without DD or time. Aug 31 you would have bought at 15.38ish - and dropped to 14ish until today.

Next time provide the date of the jump please (only pm me)

 

[superjohn]

Giving a ticker doesn't mean anything without DD or time. Aug 31 you would have bought at 15.38ish - and dropped to 14ish until today.

Next time provide the date of the jump please (only pm me)

Things don't go up in a straight line.

 

[uconnphil2016]

One time in college I almost invested in industrial hemp penny stocks. One skyrocket from like 5 cents to nearly 15 bucks in a few short months or something before it returned to its original spot. I’ve never really been a bright investor, I’m better at spending

 

[Adios]

You're better off with copper pennies.

 

[huskyinfl]

Things don't go up in a straight line.

Compound interest is my best friend. I have time.

 

[Guapo]

Don’t day trade.

Put money aside from your first source of income and open a Roth IRA.

If you have a 401K through your employer, maximize the employer matching contribution.

 

[Javjudah]

Giving a ticker doesn't mean anything without DD or time. Aug 31 you would have bought at 15.38ish - and dropped to 14ish until today.

Next time provide the date of the jump please (only pm me)

My average price was $14.22. Sold at $19.40. Will re-buy at/around $17 on a pull back.

 

[Ewekon]

Drip twice. Drip money consistently, every two weeks per pay check, into quality companies with plus dividend yields and DRIP aka re invest the dividends in that stock. Up market or down long term. Do that for half of your portfolio anyway. Just an example is SO.....the Southern Company.

 

[jibsey]

Most people agree that nothing performs better than stocks long term but consider the bear market of 2007-2009 and specific sector major declines. If your are very close to retirement and that hit happens it can be difficult to recover, in fact I know of someone that happened to who had to delay their retirement by 5 years. Interest rates are going to head up and there are more conservative fixed but not sexy strategies for those who wish to sleep soundly at night (that by the way includes market exposure for part of the portfolio). Warren Buffet says stay in which makes sense long term but what about taking a huge hit if you are only 1 or 2 years into retirement. It could be devastating.

 

[Hamms30]

Read Graham's Security Analysis or Intelligent Investor, take a small amount and go after it and have fun. The rest of it.. low cost index funds and hold. Also... long pork bellies

 

[Uconnfanatic]

I have spent over 40 years on Wall Street as an institutional money manager and strategist. I will echo those that cautioned against day trading. Some are successful at it but most are not. I would also caution that we are almost ten years into this bull market and that's longer than most bull cycles last. We are in a sweet spot with a strong economy, strong earnings and still relatively low interest rates and inflation. Market looks ready to enter a final parabolic stage that could take the S&P to 3300 or higher by year-end. But risks are building. There is $250 trillion in debt and more than $1 quadrillion in derivatives in the global financial system. We have never had this degree of leverage before, not even close. Leverage works both ways. It enhances returns on the way up but will hit the economy and markets very hard on the way down. With this level of leverage, the next bear market is likely to be worse than 2008. So some good opportunities still but I think 2019 could be much more problematic.

 

[uconndogs]

The debt numbers don't scare me as much as the derivative numbers do, because I don't think anyone fully understands how those markets fully interact with our economy. I don't know how anybody could.

 

[B1GEast]

I have spent over 40 years on Wall Street as an institutional money manager and strategist. I will echo those that cautioned against day trading. Some are successful at it but most are not. I would also caution that we are almost ten years into this bull market and that's longer than most bull cycles last. We are in a sweet spot with a strong economy, strong earnings and still relatively low interest rates and inflation. Market looks ready to enter a final parabolic stage that could take the S&P to 3300 or higher by year-end. But risks are building. There is $250 trillion in debt and more than $1 quadrillion in derivatives in the global financial system. We have never had this degree of leverage before, not even close. Leverage works both ways. It enhances returns on the way up but will hit the economy and markets very hard on the way down. With this level of leverage, the next bear market is likely to be worse than 2008. So some good opportunities still but I think 2019 could be much more problematic.

Any defensive play suggestions?

A question that's we're discussing at work is, if the correction is huge, where do you go defensively?

With interest rates rising, bonds will be negatively affected.

Precious metals look like they are due for a correction as well and emerging markets are scary.

Real estate looks scary as well, there does not seem to be any place to play defensively.

My guess would be bear market index funds.

 

[Uconnfanatic]

The debt numbers don't scare me as much as the derivative numbers do, because I don't think anyone fully understands how those markets fully interact with our economy. I don't know how anybody could.

We are in uncharted waters when it comes to derivatives. You are right that no one rally knows what the full impact of derivatives will be in the next downturn. What is likely is that they will exacerbate the downturn and cause a steeper, faster bear market unwind. Won't be pretty.

 

[Hoophound]

Real estate is safer this time around in most places. There is a shortage of housing and pricing is more reasonable than it was during the 2006-2009 debacle along the coasts with the exception of a handful of big cities.

I am more of a believer in quality dividend stocks in utilities and other consumer staples. As a long term strategy, you’ll build up a nice income for retirement with these stocks and they outperform the market during recession. You won’t hit it big with a Qualcomm, Apple or Google but you’ll sleep soundly. Take a chunk, like 30% and put that in an index fund. Playing with individual stocks is really only worthwhile if you have a good analyst sneaking you tips he has from the office. Otherwise, I just can’t see it being more productive than going out and earning money and letting the pros invest it in diversified funds.

 

[Hamms30]

We are in uncharted waters when it comes to derivatives. You are right that no one rally knows what the full impact of derivatives will be in the next downturn. What is likely is that they will exacerbate the downturn and cause a steeper, faster bear market unwind. Won't be pretty.

What I never understood was 2008 seemed to be massively leveraged up on debt and derivatives and it almost melted everything. And it seems like people rushed right back in to do it all over again. 1 quadrillion is a fascinatingly horrific number to think about.

 

[HobokenHusky]

Betterment | The Smart, Modern Way to Invest | Online Financial Advisor

Put your money here if you don't know what you are doing - you pay 0.25% (a traditional advisor is 1%) of your assets under management a year and they take care of your asset allocation based on your risk tolerance and goals.

 

[Uconnfanatic]

Any defensive play suggestions?

A question that's we're discussing at work is, if the correction is huge, where do you go defensively?

With interest rates rising, bonds will be negatively affected.

Precious metals look like they are due for a correction as well and emerging markets are scary.

Real estate looks scary as well, there does not seem to be any place to play defensively.

My guess would be bear market index funds.

I am in a small minority who thinks long-term Treasury bonds will trade up to significant new highs next year as a recession and bear market sends investors across the globe scurrying for the safety of the U.S. government guarantee. The same doesn't hold true for corporate bonds, particularly lower quality corporate bonds as they will likely be hit hard in the recession as spread widen. I actually like gold a lot here and think it is likely to outperform most assets for the next several months. But beyond this rally gold is likely to trade back down to new lows during the coming bear market so it's not likely to protect investors during that downturn. I don't like real estate here. Cycle appear to be nearing a top.

 

[intlzncster]

What I never understood was 2008 seemed to be massively leveraged up on debt and derivatives and it almost melted everything. And it seems like people rushed right back in to do it all over again. 1 quadrillion is a fascinatingly horrific number to think about.

We are back to that level at most things if not more.

• US GDP up something like 40%; unfortunately, that's against a national debt increase of 120% or so.
• That doesn't even include the unfunded liabilities (some ridiculous trillion dollar number).
• Housing debt similar levels
• Student debt massively higher, unsustainable bubble.
• etc

This is all on top of a worldwide national debt increase north of 60% iirc. Not to mention the quadrillions of derivatives floating around in the world which will do god knows what in a downturn.

And this has been the 2nd longest expansion in US history. We are overdue.

The big difference is we don't have the same types of tools available to fight it. Deficit is already massive, so pumping cash in the system is going to have some seriously detrimental effects. And interest rates can't go much lower (they are desperately trying to raise them now in anticipation of needing to lower them in the not so far future).

 

[intlzncster]

One time in college I almost invested in industrial hemp penny stocks. One skyrocket from like 5 cents to nearly 15 bucks in a few short months or something before it returned to its original spot. I’ve never really been a bright investor, I’m better at spending

You gotta stop smoking phil. Clear that head up and think straight.

FYI I sold bitcoin at $10. hahahahaha